Latest stories

Federal judge hears arguments in case over IRS donor disclosure rules

On June 5, 2019, U.S. District Court Judge Brian Morris heard arguments in Bullock v. Internal Revenue Service, a case concerning an Internal Revenue Service (IRS) rule exempting select classes of nonprofit organizations from donor disclosure requirements. The subject of the June 5 hearing was whether states have standing to challenge the IRS rule.

  • What is at issue? On July 16, 2018, the IRS issued Revenue Procedure 2018-38, which exempts 501(c) nonprofit entities from reporting the names and addresses of their contributors to the IRS. The rule modification does not apply to 501(c)(3) organizations.
  • Who are the parties to the suit, and what are they saying?
    • The plaintiffs are Montana Gov. Stephen Bullock, also a 2020 presidential candidate, (D) and the Montana Department of Revenue. The state of New Jersey later joined the suit. Montana operates under divided government (Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature). New Jersey is a Democratic trifecta.
      • In a court filing, attorneys for the plaintiffs said, “Reduced transparency for 501(c) organizations at the federal level has significant downstream effects. In the context of elections and election spending, reduced transparency at the IRS upends settled expectations that federal tax-exempt organizations are what they purport to be: domestically-funded social welfare groups validly participating in elections, for example.” The attorneys for the state of New Jersey are Attorney General Gurbir Grewal (D), Assistant Attorney General Glenn Moramarco, and Deputy Attorney General Katherine Gregory. The attorneys for Bullock and the Montana Department of Revenue are Raphael Graybill, Bullock’s chief legal counsel, and Deepak Gupta of Gupta Wessler PLLC.
    • The defendants are the Internal Revenue Service, Acting IRS Commissioner David Kautter, and the Treasury Department.
      • Justice Department attorneys for the defendants said, “Neither state has ever before sought or received from the IRS the information they are now trying to force the IRS to continue collecting, and both states lack the ability to obtain this information from the IRS even if it was collected. In issuing Revenue Procedure 2018-38, the IRS exercised its longstanding statutory discretion to determine what information it collects from exempt organizations to meet its tax administration needs.”
  • Case information: Judge Brian Morris, of the U.S. District Court for the District of Montana, is presiding. Morris was appointed by President Barack Obama (D) in 2013. The case name and number are Bullock v. Internal Revenue Service, 4:18-cv-00103.

What we’re reading

The big picture

Number of relevant bills by state: We’re currently tracking 72 pieces of legislation dealing with donor disclosure. On the map below, a darker shade of green indicates a greater number of relevant bills. Click here for a complete list of all the bills we’re tracking.

Disclosure Digest map June 10, 2019.png

Number of relevant bills by current legislative status

Disclosure Digest status chart June 10, 2019.png

Number of relevant bills by partisan status of sponsor(s)

Disclosure Digest partisan chart June 10, 2019.png

Recent legislative actions

Below is a complete list of legislative actions taken on relevant bills in the past week. Bills are listed in alphabetical order, first by state then by bill number. Know of any legislation we’re missing? Please email us so we can include it on our tracking list.

  • California AB864: This bill would expand disclosure requirements for certain kinds of political advertisements made by independent expenditure groups and other entities.
    • Senate Elections and Constitutional Amendments Committee hearing June 4.


Massachusetts House approves omnibus public-sector union legislation

Massachusetts House of Representatives approves omnibus public-sector union legislation

On June 5, the Massachusetts House of Representatives voted 155-1 to approve H3854, an omnibus bill that would, if enacted, make several changes to the state’s public-sector labor laws.

  • What does the bill propose?
    • It would authorize employers to disclose employee information to unions.
    • It would permit unions to require non-members to pay for the costs associated with grievance and arbitration proceedings.
    • It would require employers to provide unions with access to employees
    • It would allow unions to make dues deduction authorizations irrevocable for a period of up to one year.
  • What are the responses?
    • Rep. Paul Brodeur (D), who voted in favor of the bill, said, “It prevents hard-working, dues-paying members from footing the bill for an employee who does not share in the obligation to meet those costs by paying any money into the union. It stands for the fundamental premise that you can’t get something for nothing.”
    • Rep. Brad Jones (R), who also voted in favor of the bill, said, “I think it’s a fair argument to say, ‘Look, you’re not in the union. Fine. You don’t want to pay an agency fee. You don’t want to pay dues. But if the union’s going to have to represent you in a grievance or something like that, they should be able to have a reasonable fee.’ I think everybody bought into that.”
    • Rep. Shawn Dooley (R), who voted against the bill, criticized the bill provisions that provide unions with access to employee information: “I don’t know why they also have to be able to contact them at home in their off hours. I feel it’s a huge invasion of privacy and I think it lends itself to possible workplace bullying in the future.”
  • What comes next? The bill now goes to the Senate. If the Senate approves it, it will go to Governor Charlie Baker (R).

The big picture

Number of relevant bills by state

We are currently tracking 102 pieces of legislation dealing with public-sector employee union policy. On the map below, a darker shade of green indicates a greater number of relevant bills. Click here for a complete list of all the bills we’re tracking.

Union Station map June 7, 2019.png

Number of relevant bills by current legislative status

Union Station status chart June 7, 2019.png

Number of relevant bills by partisan status of sponsor(s)

Union Station partisan chart June 7, 2019.png

Recent legislative actions

Below is a complete list of legislative actions on relevant bills since the beginning of the year. Bills are listed in alphabetical order, first by state and then by bill number.

  • Massachusetts H3854: This bill would authorize employers to disclose personal employee information to unions. It would also permit unions to require non-members to pay for the costs associated with grievance and arbitration proceedings. It would require employers to provide unions with access to employees, and it would allow unions to make dues deduction authorizations irrevocable for a period of up to one year.
    • House approved June 5.
  • Nevada SB135: This bill would provide collective bargaining rights for state employees.
    • Senate approved June 1, and House approved June 2. Enrolled and delivered to governor June 3.
  • Oregon HB2016: This bill would require public employers to grant paid time to employees participating in certain union activities. It would also require employers to furnish unions with access to employees.
    • Senate approved June 6 (House had approved March 27).
  • Oregon HB3009: This bill would require public employers to provide unions with access to new employees. It would also permit individuals who are not union members to make payments in lieu of dues to unions.
    • Second reading in Senate June 5.


The Daily Presidential News Briefing: Buttigieg, Harris, and O’Rourke join striking fast food workers

Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing

June 12, 2019: Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, and Beto O’Rourke will join striking fast food restaurant workers this week. Joe Biden and Donald Trump campaigned in Iowa and traded barbs.

Facebook spending

Notable Quote of the Day

“I’m not saying it’s more important than a data operation or a communications shop, [but] if we get into the summer and the major campaigns haven’t brought faith outreach on, then I’d be very concerned. Otherwise, we’ll be leaving voters on the table.”

– Michael Wear, 2012 Obama faith outreach director

Democrats

 

  • While campaigning in Iowa Tuesday, Joe Biden said if he were elected president, the country would find a cure for cancer. He criticized Trump, who was also in the state, for his tariff policy.

 

 

 

 

  • Steve Bullock visited southwest Iowa communities affected by flooding along the Missouri River.

 

 

  • Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, and Beto O’Rourke will join striking fast food restaurant workers in events organized by the group Fight for $15 and a Union in three early voting states—Nevada for Harris and South Carolina for Buttigieg and O’Rourke.

 

 

  • Responding to the jury deadlock in the trial of border activist Scott Warren, Julián Castro tweeted that his administration “will not criminalize humanitarian aid and will treat asylum seekers with compassion.”

 

 

 

 

  • In an interview with The Des Moines Register, Kirsten Gillibrand said society had developed moral clarity on abortion. “There is no moral equivalency when you come to racism. And I do not believe that there is a moral equivalency when it comes to changing laws that deny women reproductive freedom,” she said.

 

 

  • In an interview with BuzzFeed News’ AM to DM, Jay Inslee discussed prioritizing climate change, decriminalizing sex work at the state level, healthcare, and abortion.

 

 

 

 

  • Wayne Messam answered 20 questions about his campaign, gun violence, immigration, Afghanistan, and personal history in Independent Journal Review’s The 2020 Twenty series.

 

 

  • Boston Magazine profiled Seth Moulton, including his early years at Harvard and enlistment in the Marines.

 

 

  • While campaigning in New Hampshire, Tim Ryan said he would “be the education president” and advocate social and emotional programs and more mental health counselors in public schools.

 

  • Eric Swalwell discussed LGBT policy and said he would sign the Equality Act during an interview on SiriusXM Progress.
  • In an interview on The Ezra Klein Show, Warren discussed what would happen on the first day of her presidency and how she would implement her policy plans.

 

  • During a tour of a Las Vegas cannabis facility, Marianne Williamson said she supported legalizing marijuana at the federal level, granting amnesty for nonviolent offenders convicted of marijuana-related crimes, and distributing tax revenue from cannabis to K-12 education.

 

 

 

Republicans

 

  • Donald Trump spoke at Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy in Council Bluffs and a fundraiser in Des Moines Tuesday. He promoted his trade policy and criticized the Green New Deal and Biden.

 

On the Cusp: Tracking Potential Candidates

 

  • Stacey Abrams has not ruled out running for president, saying the nominating process would “winnow out who is actually viable” and that she could enter in the fall. She said, “I will enter this race if I think I can add value to it. I don’t have enough information at this moment to make that decision.”

 

What We’re Reading

Flashback: June 12, 2015

After 36 years, the Iowa Republican Party announced it was canceling the Iowa straw poll. “The poll had been criticized in recent elections as an irrelevant metric of potential Republican presidential nominees. Though historically, it’s been a test of candidates’ organizing power and retail politicking skills, it was blamed in 2012 for contributing to the lengthy, circus-like atmosphere of the Republican primary, in part by propping up candidates like [Michele] Bachmann who might have faded earlier but for the event,” Politico reported.



The Daily Brew: We want you to join our summer fun!

The Daily Brew

Welcome to the Wednesday, June 12, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. How are you spending the summer? We want to know!
  2. Supreme Court to issue 24 opinions by the end of June
  3. Quiz: Which state saw the most close House elections?

How are you spending the summer? We want to know!

Nine days until the official start of summer. Are you enjoying the sunshine on the West coast? Melting in Texas? Poolside in the District? Blessing the rains down in the Midwest?

Wherever you may be, we’re glad you’re tuning into the Daily Brew this summer. We’re having some summer fun here at Ballotpedia, and want to invite you to join us.

Fourth of July week we’ll be bringing you Ballotpedia Summer Camp.

Your Daily Brew will be replaced with Daily Iced Coffees, filled with our favorite stories and analysis of the year so far.

We also want to hear from you! We’ll feature submissions from readers during Summer Camp week.

Respond to this email and let me know your favorite political stories of the year. What are you looking forward to the rest of the year? What are your family’s summer plans?

Share your story and it might be selected to be shared with other Daily Brew readers—And you might even get some sweet Ballotpedia swag out of the deal!

Supreme Court to issue 24 opinions by the end of June

The Supreme Court has issued 45 decisions in the 69 cases for which it’s heard oral arguments. The court’s term ends at the end of June, so that means there are 24 cases still awaiting a ruling.

By this date in 2018, the court had issued opinions in 42 of the 63 cases for which it heard oral arguments and had yet to issue decisions in 21 cases. Last year, the court added several additional, unplanned opinion release dates to account for the backlog. So far this year no additional dates have been announced – but stay tuned!

The listing below shows the month that this term’s opinions were issued:

  • November – 2
  • December  – 1
  • January – 5
  • February – 6
  • March – 11
  • April – 4
  • May – 9
  • June – 7

The table below shows the number of cases in which the court has yet to issue a ruling, organized by the month in which the court heard oral arguments, compared to the previous term: 

2018-2019 term

2017-2018 term

October – 1

November – 2

December – 1

January – 2

February – 3

March – 7

April – 8

October – 1

November – 1

December – 0

January – 2

February – 6

March – 2

April – 9

 

We cover all things SCOTUS and the federal judiciary in our Bold Justice newsletter, with summaries of Supreme Court opinions and information about nominations of federal judges. The next issue will come out on Monday, June 17—click here to subscribe!

Learn more

#BallotTrivia

Quiz: Which state saw the most close House elections?

In Tuesday’s Brew, I introduced you to the work we did about the margin of victory in 2018’s congressional elections. Those were just the highlights—there’s plenty of great information provided in the full analysis. I hope you had a chance to explore that page further—including the maps and charts—because today, I’ve got a short quiz.



Five Senate and 44 House races in 2018 were decided by less than 5 percent

The average margin of victory in the 2018 elections was the smallest it had been in even-year congressional races since 2012.
 
Margin of victory—or MOV—is the difference between the share of votes cast for the winning candidate and the share cast for the losing one.
 
Since it is June, the sixth month of the year, here are six more quick facts from our research:
 
  • Sixty-nine percent of 2018’s congressional races were decided by a margin of more than 15 percentage points.
  • In 2018’s 33 regularly-scheduled U.S. Senate elections, the average MOV was 16.8%. This was the smallest average since 2012 when that year’s Senate races averaged a 20% MOV.
  • Republican candidates who won Senate races had an average MOV of 14.3%, compared to an MOV of 16.8% in races won by Democratic candidates. Seventeen Senate races (more than half) were decided by a margin of victory greater than 15%.
  • The closest Senate race was in Florida, where then-Gov. Rick Scott (R) defeated incumbent Bill Nelson (D) by a margin of 0.12%—10,003 votes out of 8.2 million cast. The largest MOV was in Hawaii, where incumbent Mazie Hirono (D) won by 42.3%.
  • In 434 U.S. House elections, the average margin of victory was 30.2%. This was the smallest average since 2012 when the average MOV was 31.8%. Republican candidates who won did so by an average margin of 22.8%. The average margin in House races won by Democrats was 36.6%.
  • The closest House race was in Georgia’s 7th Congressional District where incumbent Rob Woodall (R) defeated Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) by 433 votes—a margin of 0.15%.
Additional reading:


The Daily Presidential News Briefing: Gillibrand crosses 65,000-donors threshold for first debate

Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing

June 11, 2019: Kirsten Gillibrand crossed 65,000 donors to effectively guarantee her a spot on the debate stage. Donald Trump discussed tariffs in an interview on CNBC.

Share the latest from the campaign trail.

Forward This blank   Tweet This blankblank   Send to Facebook


Trivia Tuesday

George Washington aside, which non-incumbent presidential candidate won the highest share of the Electoral College vote?

Notable Quotes of the Day
“Despite the conventional wisdom, which holds that abortion only motivates voters on the right, history suggests otherwise: boldly supporting a woman’s right to legal abortion is a winning strategy for Democrats on the road to the White House.

When the issue of abortion is activated during a presidential campaign – like it was in 1992 and 2012 – it results in big wins for Democrats.”

– Nancy L. CohenThe Guardian contributor

“If Biden had stuck with his opposition to taxpayer funding [of abortions] and won the nomination, he might have been able to draw a contrast between his own moderation and the Republicans’ extremism. But the Democrats have now drawn more attention than ever before to a question where they’re the ones who want a big change in abortion policy that most people oppose.”

– Ramesh Ponnuru, American Enterprise Institute visiting fellow

Democrats

  • The lottery to determine the candidate order on stage in the first debate will take place on June 14 at NBC’s headquarters at 30 Rockefeller Plaza. NBC also announced the debate will have five moderators. Lester Holt, Savannah Guthrie, and José Diaz-Balart will moderate the first hour and Chuck Todd and Rachel Maddow will moderate the second.

  • The Democratic National Committee announced that the Fox Theatre in Detroit will be the venue for the second debate in July. CNN will host the event.

  • Joe BidenSteve Bullock, and Beto O’Rourke are campaigning and fundraising in Chicago, Illinois, this week.

  • Bill de Blasio released a video supporting driver’s licenses for all, regardless of immigration status, for safety.

  • Pete Buttigieg will deliver a major national security and foreign policy address at Indiana University Tuesday morning.

  • Nicole Avant, who helped bundle at least $800,000 for Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign, is backing Buttigieg’s campaign.

  • Julián Castro proposed launching a presidential task force on lead poisoningand allocating $5 billion per year for a decade to replace lead pipes and address contamination.

  • New York Magazine profiled Tulsi Gabbard’s early years and its impact on her presidential campaign.

  • Kirsten Gillibrand announced she had crossed 65,000 unique donors over the weekend, effectively guaranteeing her a spot in the debate.

  • In an interview on CBS News’ Red & BlueMike Gravel discussed the organization of his campaign and the state of progressive policies in the Democratic Party.

  • Kamala Harris held a town hall in Dubuque, Iowa, Monday.

  • KIMT News 3 interviewed John Hickenlooper about his opposition to socialism and support for civility in politics.

  • Jay Inslee posted three billboards in Des Moines, Iowa, calling on an energy company to stop burning coal for energy production.

  • Amy Klobuchar campaigned in New Hampshire Monday, including speaking at the Politics & Eggs event at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics.

  • Seth Moulton campaigned in Manchester, New Hampshire, and told reporters he expected to focus on the state over the summer.

  • Tim Ryan met with farmers and small business owners while campaigning in New Hampshire.

  • Eric Swalwell will hold a roundtable on gun violence in Las Vegas, Nevada, Wednesday.

  • Elizabeth Warren called on the Justice Department’s antitrust chief Makan Delrahim to recuse himself from investigations into Google and Apple, which he previously lobbied for.

  • In an interview on MSNBC’s The Beat, Marianne Williamson spoke about American values and her relationship with Oprah.

  • The Washington Post profiled Andrew Yang’s viral campaign in an article titled, “Random Man Runs for President.”

Republicans

Flashback: June 11, 2015

During an event at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, Carly Fiorina delivered what she called the first major speech in the 2016 presidential election “on the state of women in America.” She called for conservatives to reclaim the word feminism.



The Daily Brew: So, how close were congressional elections in 2018?

The Daily Brew
Welcome to the Tuesday, June 11, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. Five Senate and 44 House races in 2018 were decided by less than 5 percent
  2. Voters to decide at least 19 statewide ballot measures in five states this year
  3. Johnson elected Dallas mayor; Mayor Nirenberg wins re-election in San Antonio

Five Senate and 44 House races in 2018 were decided by less than 5 percent

Last year’s elections were held seven months ago. But we all know it is fun to look back and crunch the numbers every now and then. Today, we explore the margin-of-victory figures.

The average margin of victory in the 2018 elections was the smallest it had been in even-year congressional races since 2012.

Margin of victory—or MOV—is the difference between the share of votes cast for the winning candidate and the share cast for the losing one.

The table below shows the number of congressional elections won by each party in three categories—a margin of less than 5%, a margin between 5% and 15%, and a margin of greater than 15%.

Elections by margin of victory

Since it is June, the sixth month of the year, here are six more quick facts from our research:

  • Sixty-nine percent of 2018’s congressional races were decided by a margin of more than 15 percentage points.

  • In 2018’s 33 regularly-scheduled U.S. Senate elections, the average MOV was 16.8%. This was the smallest average since 2012 when that year’s Senate races averaged a 20% MOV.

  • Republican candidates who won Senate races had an average MOV of 14.3%, compared to an MOV of 16.8% in races won by Democratic candidates. Seventeen Senate races (more than half) were decided by a margin of victory greater than 15%.

  • The closest Senate race was in Florida, where then-Gov. Rick Scott (R) defeated incumbent Bill Nelson (D) by a margin of 0.12%—10,003 votes out of 8.2 million cast. The largest MOV was in Hawaii, where incumbent Mazie Hirono (D) won by 42.3%.

  • In 434 U.S. House elections, the average margin of victory was 30.2%. This was the smallest average since 2012 when the average MOV was 31.8%. Republican candidates who won did so by an average margin of 22.8%. The average margin in House races won by Democrats was 36.6%.

  • The closest House race was in Georgia’s 7th Congressional District where incumbent Rob Woodall (R) defeated Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) by 433 votes—a margin of 0.15%.

Learn more

Forward This blank   Tweet This blankblank   Send to Facebook


blank

Ballotpedia Events


Voters to decide at least 19 statewide ballot measures in five states this year

In the last few months, I’ve brought you stories about individual ballot initiatives that will be decided by voters in 2019. As we near the halfway point in the year, let’s take the temperature of where things stand so far.

19 statewide ballot measures have certified for the 2019 ballot in five states—Colorado (two), Kansas (one), Louisiana (four), Texas (10), and Washington (two). In Louisiana, the measures will appear on the October 12 primary election ballot. The other measures certified so far will be decided by voters on November 5.

Of the 19 measures, 18 were referred to the ballot by state legislatures and one was placed on the ballot via citizen initiative. That initiative, in Washington, seeks to limit annual license fees and taxes on motor vehicles.

Some of the topics which voters will address in these measures include transportation, taxes and tax exemptions, revenue allocation and budgets, the census, education, animal care, bonds, and the administration of government.

In the past four odd-numbered years, the average number of certified statewide measures by this date was between 16 and 17, and the average total number of statewide measures was 30. In 2017, 27 statewide measures were certified.

The Tuesday CountFour states—Colorado, Maine, Ohio, and Washington—allow for citizen-initiated ballot initiatives or veto referendums in elections in odd-numbered years. The next upcoming signature submission deadlines for citizen initiatives in those states are on July 3 (Ohio) and July 5 (Washington). Legislatively referred measures can also be approved in those four states in 2019. Other states that frequently feature statewide measures in odd-numbered years include Louisiana, New Jersey, New York, and Texas.

Johnson elected Dallas mayor; Mayor Nirenberg wins re-election in San Antonio

While much of the country was partaking in their usual weekend activities, voters in San Antonio and Dallas were electing new mayors. In case you missed it, here’s a quick rundown of who won the Saturday runoff elections.

Dallas

State Rep. Eric Johnson defeated City Councilmember Scott Griggs in the runoff election for mayor of Dallas. Johnson received 56 percent of the vote to Griggs’ 44 percent.

Johnson was first elected to the Texas House of Representatives in 2010. Although municipal elections in Dallas are officially nonpartisan, Johnson and outgoing Mayor Mike Rawlings are Democrats.

Saturday’s elections also featured runoffs for four seats on the Dallas City Council, whose members are up for election every two years. Of the ten council incumbents who sought re-election in 2019, two were defeated.

San Antonio

Incumbent Ron Nirenberg defeated council member Greg Brockhouse to win a second two-year term as mayor of San Antonio. Nirenberg received 51.1% of the vote and Brockhouse received 48.9%. Nirenberg has said he is not affiliated with any political party.

The total number of votes cast in Saturday’s runoff was 120,723, a 19% increase over the 101,277 votes cast in the May 4 general election. There have been five mayoral runoff elections in San Antonio since 1997, and in all but one, the total votes cast in the runoff exceeded the number cast in the general election.

In San Antonio’s city council elections this year, which concluded with three runoffs on Saturday, all seven incumbents who ran for re-election won another term.



The Daily Presidential News Briefing: Tester endorsed Bullock

Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing

June 10, 2019: Sen. Jon Tester endorsed Steve Bullock for president. Most Democrats spent the weekend campaigning in Iowa at party and Pride events.

Share the latest from the campaign trail.


Candidates chart

There are eight new candidates running since last week, including three Democrats, three Republicans, and one Libertarian. Nineteen candidates are no longer running. In total, 733 individuals are currently filed with the Federal Election Commission to run for president.

Notable Quote of the Day

“If you want to survive, and you want to get the nomination, you have to kill the bear. [Biden is] the biggest bear in the woods. … If he survives and he gets to Iowa, he’s going to be tough to stop.”

– Hank Sheinkopf, Democratic strategist

Democrats

  • The Des Moines Register compiled the key moments from 19 Democratic presidential candidates’ speeches at the state Hall of Fame induction ceremony.

  • At least ten of those Democrats—Pete ButtigiegCory BookerJohn DelaneyKirsten GillibrandJay InsleeBeto O’RourkeTim RyanBernie SandersMarianne Williamsonand Andrew Yang—also attended Capital City Pride Festival events Saturday in Iowa.

  • During an interview on Cheddar’s Need2Know podcast, Michael Bennetdiscussed student loans, climate change, and why he prefers the term “pragmatic idealist” to “centrist.”

  • Joe Biden will campaign across Iowa Tuesday and Wednesday with stops in Ottumwa, Mount Pleasant, Davenport, and Clinton.

  • While campaigning in IowaBill de Blasio said he was making mental health policy one of the centerpieces of his campaign.

  • Sen. Jon Tester endorsed fellow Montanan Steve Bullock for president Sunday. He is the tenth Democratic U.S. senator to make an endorsement in the 2020 presidential election.

  • Julián Castro spoke with local officials about water filtration systems and food insecurity during a visit to Flint, Michigan.

  • Mike Gravel discussed Brexit, economic development in Africa, and regime change in the Middle East in an interview with Cherwell.

  • While speaking at an NAACP event in South Carolina, Kamala Harris said her career as a prosecutor would be her greatest asset in a general election against Donald Trump.

  • In an interview on CBS News’ Face the NationAmy Klobuchar discussed abortion policy and said the Trump administration’s trade policy was harming farmers.

  • Wayne Messam called on supporters to contribute $5 to his campaign on his birthday Friday.

  • Seth Moulton spoke at the annual party Unity Dinner in Raleigh, North Carolina, Saturday.

  • Tom Steyer’s Need to Impeach advocacy group is targeting Eric Swalwell and 11 other Democrats in key leadership and committee positions in a $360,000 campaign calling for the impeachment of Trump.

Republicans

  • Donald Trump announced Friday that the U.S. would not impose tariffs on Mexican goods following an agreement with Mexico on border security.

  • Bill Weld criticized Trump’s trade and tariffs policies, saying they “have done great harm to our farmers, workers and businesses large and small across America.”

General Election Updates

  • The Florida Democratic Party released a summary of its report Saturday detailing the party’s performance in the 2018 election and goals for the 2020 election. Brandon Peters, the state party’s voter protection director, also told party leaders at the annual Leadership Blue 2019 meeting that he was preparing for a recount with a goal of 15,000 lawyers and volunteers across the state.


Join Ballotpedia as we speak with Dr. Stevan Hobfoll about how the political environment has changed. 

Flashback: June 10, 2015

Hillary Clinton launched her Instagram with a post referencing her memoir, Hard Choices. Her account now has 4.3 million followers.



The Daily Brew: Primary day tomorrow in Virginia-margin of control in each chamber is one seat

 

The Daily Brew

Welcome to the Monday, June 10, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. Virginia state legislative primaries take place Tuesday
  2. One of five Kansas school districts covered by Ballotpedia to hold primary elections
  3. Presidential candidates must qualify for first Democratic debate this week
  4. Upcoming events

Virginia state legislative primaries take place Tuesday

A busy period of elections ends Tuesday as Virginia holds legislative primaries for both the state Senate and the House of Delegates.

Virginia has been under divided government since 2002. Gov. Ralph Northam is a Democrat while Republicans hold majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. If Republicans retain control of the Senate or the state House, Virginia will remain under divided government. If Democrats win both chambers of the legislature, they will have a trifecta and full control of the government during redistricting.

Republicans hold a 21-19 majority in the state Senate and a 51-49 majority in the state House. Fifteen incumbents—nine Democrats and six Republicans—face primary challengers.

According to data from the state Department of Elections and local parties, there will be at least 16 primaries for state Senate seats and at least 19 primaries for seats in the state House. Virginia uses a unique primary system in that local parties can hold party caucuses or nominating conventions in place of primary elections to select their nominees. In a caucus or convention, party members or delegates meet and choose a nominee according to defined rules. Ballotpedia has determined that parties in at least 28 districts in Virginia are selecting their state legislative nominee via convention in 2019.

Ballotpedia has identified 12 primaries as battleground races this year—seven seats held by Democrats and five held by Republicans. There are six battleground primaries each in the Senate and House. In all but one race, the incumbent is seeking re-election. 20 incumbents faced at least one primary opponent In the four House of Delegate elections since 2011. Four incumbents lost – meaning 16 incumbents80%—won their primary. In the two state Senate elections since 2011, five incumbents faced at least primary challenger and four of those, or 80%, won the primary.

This election will take place using court-ordered state House district maps redrawn by a special master earlier this year, which changed the boundaries of 25 districts. Under the old maps, Hillary Clinton won 51 districts in 2016 while Donald Trump won 49. Under the new maps, Clinton would have won 56 districts (7 currently held by Republicans) while Trump would have won 44 (none currently held by Democrats).

Click here to learn more about Virginia’s Democratic primaries  

Click here to learn more about Virginia’s Republican primaries

One of five Kansas school districts covered by Ballotpedia to hold primary elections

Primary elections in four Kansas school districts covered by Ballotpedia were canceled because two candidates or less filed to run for election. Of the 17 seats up for election in those districts, the outcome in six has already been decided since only one candidate is running for each seat.

In the school districts we cover in Kansas, one primary election will take place on August 6 for an at-large seat on the Wichita Public Schools Board of Education. School board president Sheril Logan faces three challengers for the at-large seat she has held since 2011.

Of the 20 school district seats in Kansas we’re covering, 14 feature incumbents running for re-election. Four of them are unopposed. General elections will be held on November 5.

Ballotpedia covers the 200 largest school districts in the nation and those districts that overlap with the 100 largest cities by population in the United States. All of the Kansas school districts covered are in the area surrounding Wichita. These five Kansas school districts served a combined total of 71,240 students during the 2016-2017 school year.

From 2014 to 2016, Ballotpedia analyzed school board election statistics in America’s 1,000 largest school districts. We found that:

  • between 32 percent and 36 percent of elections were unopposed each year, and
  • incumbents who sought re-election won between 81 percent and 83 percent of the time.

Click the link below for more findings from that analysis.

Learn more

Presidential candidates must qualify for first Democratic debate this week

Democratic presidential candidates have until June 12 to qualify for the first set of presidential debates held on June 26-27 in Miami, Florida. This will be the first of 12 Democratic primary debates scheduled for the 2020 presidential election.

Thirteen candidates have already qualified under both criteria and seven others have met the polling threshold only. Four notable candidates have not yet announced whether they have met either criterion.

No more than 20 candidates—10 per night—will participate in these debates. The Democratic National Committee announced last month that the candidates will be divided into two groups—those above and those below a polling average of 2 percent. These two groups will be randomly and equally divided between both nights of the debate to avoid one debate being classified as an undercard event.

Candidates can qualify by receiving 1 percent support or more in three national or early state polls—Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and/or Nevada—publicly released since January 1, 2019. Any candidate’s three qualifying polls must be conducted by different organizations, or if by the same organization, must be in different geographical areas.

Candidates may also qualify for the debate by providing verifiable evidence that they received donations from at least 65,000 unique donors with a minimum of 200 donors per state in at least 20 states.

In the event that more than 20 candidates qualify, preference will be given to those who have reached both the polling and fundraising thresholds. The following chart shows which Democratic presidential candidates have qualified for the debate and by which method.

Click here to learn more about the first set of Democratic presidential debates—and the link below to subscribe to our free Daily Presidential News Briefing newsletter about the 2020 presidential campaign.

Subscribe to the Daily Presidential News Briefing

Upcoming events

This month Ballotpedia is hosting the following events. I’d love for you to join us!

June 20th: Join us for a discussion about fear in politics with Dr. Stevan Hobfoll as we discuss his new book Tribalism: The Evolutionary Origins of Fear Politics

Grab a spot→

June 26th: With the one year anniversary of the Supreme Court ruling in Janus, Ballotpedia is taking a deep dive into how the case has impacted unions across the United States.

Register here→



Virginia legislative primaries to decide nominees for November general elections

Virginia holds legislative primaries for both the state Senate and the House of Delegates on June 11, 2019.
 
Virginia has been under divided government since 2002. Gov. Ralph Northam is a Democrat while Republicans hold majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. If Republicans retain control of the Senate or the state House, Virginia will remain under divided government. If Democrats win both chambers of the legislature, they will have a trifecta and full control of the government during redistricting.
 
Republicans hold a 21-19 majority in the state Senate and a 51-49 majority in the state House. 
 
Fifteen incumbents—nine Democrats and six Republicans—face primary challengers.
According to data from the state Department of Elections and local parties, there will be at least 16 primaries for state Senate seats and at least 19 primaries for seats in the state House.
 
Virginia uses a unique primary system in that local parties can hold party caucuses or nominating conventions in place of primary elections to select their nominees. In a caucus or convention, party members or delegates meet and choose a nominee according to defined rules. Ballotpedia has determined that parties in at least 28 districts in Virginia are selecting their state legislative nominee via convention in 2019.
 
Ballotpedia has identified 12 primaries as battleground races this year—seven seats held by Democrats and five held by Republicans. There are six battleground primaries each in the Senate and House.
 
In all but one race, the incumbent is seeking re-election. 20 incumbents faced at least one primary opponent In the four House of Delegate elections since 2011. Four incumbents lost – meaning 16 incumbents—80%—won their primary. In the two state Senate elections since 2011, five incumbents faced at least primary challenger and four of those, or 80%, won the primary.
 
This election will take place using court-ordered state House district maps redrawn by a special master earlier this year, which changed the boundaries of 25 districts. Under the old maps, Hillary Clinton won 51 districts in 2016 while Donald Trump won 49. Under the new maps, Clinton would have won 56 districts (7 currently held by Republicans) while Trump would have won 44 (none currently held by Democrats).
 
Additional reading: