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Proponents of Arkansas optometry referendum petition supreme court to count signatures and certify measure for the 2020 ballot

By Jackie Mitchell
In Ballot measures
August 16, 2019 at 3:39 PM
Safe Surgery Arkansas, sponsors of the Arkansas Practice of Optometry Referendum, reported submitting more than 84,000 signatures by the July 23 deadline to qualify a veto referendum on House Bill 1251 for a statewide vote in 2020. A total of 53,491 signatures need to be valid to qualify the measure for the ballot.
 
Safe Surgery Arkansas is sponsoring the veto referendum petition seeking to block optometrists from performing certain surgical procedures including the following:
  • injections, excluding intravenous or intraocular injections;
  • incision and curettage of a chalazion;
  • removal and biopsy of skin lesions with low risk of malignancy, excluding lesions involving the lid margin or nasal to the puncta;
  • laser capsulotomy; and
  • laser trabeculoplasty.
 
The Arkansas Secretary of State’s office said proponents submitted 23,953 valid signatures and, therefore, failed to qualify for the ballot. Arkansas Secretary of State John Thurston (R) declined to count 61,065 signatures submitted by proponents, saying they were not collected in compliance with Act 376 (House Bill 346) of 2019. Act 376 changed the laws governing the initiative process in Arkansas. Act 376 contained an emergency clause that applied the new laws to petitions that were already being circulated.
 
Among other things, Act 376 required sponsors to submit a signed, sworn statement to the secretary of state saying that the petitioner had not been found guilty of a felony or crime of fraud, forgery, identity theft, or election law violation. Before the adoption of Act 376, that statement needed to be submitted by paid canvassers to the initiative sponsor rather than the secretary of state. The secretary of state said proponents did not properly submit the required paperwork before collecting the signatures in question.
 
Proponents are challenging the legality of the emergency clause and are asking the supreme court to order that the 61,065 signatures be counted and order the Secretary of State to certify the petition to the ballot.
 
Since the first in 1934, 10 veto referendum measures have appeared on the ballot in Arkansas. The most recent referendum was on the ballot in 2004. In all but one case, the referendum efforts resulted in the targeted law being repealed or overturned.
 
Nationwide since the first in 1906, 521 veto referendums appeared on the ballot in 23 states. Voters repealed 340 (65.3 percent) of the targeted laws. Voters upheld 181 (34.7 percent) of the targeted laws. The states with the most veto referendums were North Dakota (75), Oregon (68), and California (48). The states that allowed for veto referendums but had the least number of them were Wyoming (1), Nevada (2), and New Mexico (3).


More than half of state legislative elections in 2019 lack either a Democrat or Republican

By Jaclyn Beran
In Uncategorized
August 16, 2019 at 3:34 PM
Four states—Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia—are holding regularly scheduled state legislative elections this year for 538 seats. The filing deadline has now passed in all four states. In the races for these 538 seats, 158 (29.3%) do not have a Democratic candidate on the ballot, and another 141 (26.2%) do not have a Republican candidate on the ballot.
 
Overall, 299 (55.6%) of the regular state legislative elections in 2019 lack either a Democratic or Republican candidate. Only one state legislative race does not have at least one major-party candidate on the ballot. Here is a breakdown of the stats for each state:
 
• Louisiana has 144 state legislative seats on the ballot. Of those, 67 (46.5%) do not have a Democratic candidate and 40 (27.7%) do not have a Republican candidate. Overall, 107 (74.3%) of Louisiana’s state legislative elections lack a candidate from one major party.
 
• Mississippi has 174 state legislative seats on the ballot. Of those, 78 (44.8%) do not have a Democratic candidate and 55 (31.6%) do not have a Republican candidate. Overall, 133 (76.4%) of Mississippi’s state legislative elections lack a candidate from one major party.
 
• New Jersey has 80 state legislative seats on the ballot. Of those, all of them have a Democratic candidate but three (3.8%) do not have a Republican candidate. Overall, three (3.8%) of New Jersey’s state legislative elections lack a candidate from one major party.
 
• Virginia has 140 state legislative seats on the ballot. Of those, 13 (9.3%) do not have a Democratic candidate and 43 (30.7%) do not have a Republican candidate. Overall, 56 (40.0%) of Virginia’s state legislative elections lack a candidate from one major party.
 
Mississippi and New Jersey have Republican and Democratic state government trifectas, respectively. Louisiana and Virginia both have a divided government with a Democratic governor but a Republican-held state House and state Senate. A state government trifecta exists when one political party simultaneously holds the governor’s office and both state legislative chambers.
 


Trump administration changes rules for immigrants who use government assistance

By Jace Lington
In Federal
August 16, 2019 at 3:34 PM
On August 12, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) announced a final rule that changes how the federal government screens immigrants who might become dependent on government services. According to the 837-page rule, agencies may deny immigrants a visa or a green card if they have used food stamps, Medicaid, housing subsidies, or other public benefits.
 
Per an earlier 1999 guidance document, only public cash assistance or long-term institutionalization at government expense counted as evidence that an immigrant was at risk of being a public charge. Prior to the new rule, agencies could deny immigrants continued legal status if they determined that the immigrants were likely to rely on public benefits. The new rule amends the 1999 guidance to expand the factors agencies may consider when deciding those cases.
 
Guidance is a term in administrative law used to describe a variety of documents created by government agencies to explain, interpret, or advise interested parties about rules, laws, and procedures. Guidance documents clarify and affect how agencies administer regulations and programs. However, they are not legally binding in the same way as rules issued through one of the rulemaking processes of the Administrative Procedure Act (APA).
 
In this case, the agencies followed informal procedures and issued the immigration rule after announcing a proposal and giving the public a chance to offer feedback. The agencies scheduled the rule to go into effect in October, 60 days after its publication in the Federal Register.
 


Booker calls for new White House Office on Hate Crimes and White Supremacist Violence

By Emily Aubert
In Newsletters
August 16, 2019 at 2:44 PM

 

Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing

August 16, 2019: Cory Booker released his plan to address domestic terrorism. Rapper Cardi B interviews Bernie Sanders about police brutality, student debt, and other policy issues.
        

Each Friday, we’ll highlight a presidential candidate’s key campaign staffer.

Stephen Brokaw worked on Barack Obama’s (D) 2008 and 2012 campaigns. He graduated from Harvard University in 2006 and obtained his law degree from the University of Illinois in 2012.

Previous campaign work:

  • 2012 Barack Obama presidential campaign, digital project manager
  • 2008 Barack Obama presidential campaign, delegate tracker and senior political generalist

Other experience:

  • 2016-2019: Google, Metro expansion lead and Grow with Google marketing manager
  • 2014-2015: 270 Strategies, senior vice president, general counsel, and principal
  • 2013-2014: Schiff Hardin LLP, associate

Notable Quote of the Day

“There are a whole set of unspoken assumptions at play when we call a particular candidate ‘electable.’ … What nobody suggests is that electability might be a function of getting your own party’s voters excited and engaged. That’s despite the fact that we’ve seen one election after another in recent decades in which a candidate who excited his party defeated a candidate whose own voters were lukewarm about their nominee. Barack Obama was not electable by any of the standards we’re applying to the 2020 candidates, but he won twice, and by substantial margins. Donald Trump was not remotely electable, but he won, too.

– Paul Waldman, The Washington Post

Democrats

  • In an interview on WBUR’s On Point, Michael Bennet discussed his legislative vision and new book on Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. Bennet also said in an interview with BuzzFeed that he supported expanding the Equality Amendment to include marginalized communities.
  • Bill de Blasio discussed allegations against him of donor conflicts of interest, allegations against Trump of sexual assault, policy, and his personal life in the “20 Questions for 2020” series hosted by NowThisNews.
  • In his plan to address hate crimes, Cory Booker called for the creation of a White House Office on Hate Crimes and White Supremacist Violence. He would also have the Department of Justice and the FBI prioritize domestic terrorism as they do international terrorism.
  • Steve Bullock will campaign in New Hampshire Friday and Saturday.
  • Pete Buttigieg will campaign in South Carolina Saturday and Sunday.
  • Julián Castro unveiled a series of tax and economic proposals Friday. He said he would replace the estate tax with an inherited wealth tax and change how investments are valued for inheritances to prevent lowered tax rates. He also called for raising the capital gains tax rate from 20 percent to 40 percent for people who earn $400,000 or more. For lower-income households, no family would pay more than 7 percent of its income for childcare.
  • John Delaney will spend Friday, Saturday, and Sunday campaigning in New Hampshire. He said that he plans to remain in the race until at least the Iowa caucuses, whether or not he qualifies for any more debates.
  • Kamala Harris is launching a Spanish-language version of Camp Kamala, her volunteer training program that covers caucuses, watch parties, and voter outreach.
  • Amy Klobuchar campaigned in Arkansas Thursday, holding a press conference on gun violence and attending a Democratic Party fundraiser.
  • Seth Moulton will campaign in New Hampshire Sunday.
  • Beto O’Rourke said he was focused only on his presidential campaign in an interview on MSNBC. “I will not in any scenario run for the United States Senate,” O’Rourke said Thursday.
  • Tim Ryan criticized the Democratic debate qualifications, saying in an interview on MSNBC, “Bill Clinton did not get into the race until October. And here it is August, and the field’s already being, in some ways, artificially winnowed by the Democratic National Committee.”
  • Rapper Cardi B interviewed Bernie Sanders about police brutality, student debt, minimum wage, and tax policy.
  • Joe Sestak spoke at the Urbandale Fearless Fighter Women’s Awards Dinner in Iowa Thursday.
  • Tom Steyer will campaign in Aspen, Colorado, giving a speech at the AREDAY Summit on climate action Friday.
  • Elizabeth Warren will campaign in South Carolina Saturday.
  • Andrew Yang will campaign Friday, Saturday, and Sunday in New Hampshire.

Republicans

  • Donald Trump discussed the economy, tariffs, the Democratic field, and mental health policy during a rally in Manchester, New Hampshire. He said the stock market will crash if he is not reelected in 2020.

What We’re Reading

Flashback: August 16, 2015

The Trump campaign released its first policy paper on immigration, which called for the construction of a border wall, tripling the number of ICE officers, ending birthright citizenship, and criminalizing visa overstays.

 



Weekly Presidential News Briefing – August 16, 2019

By Dave Beaudoin
In Newsletters
August 16, 2019 at 2:39 PM

The highlights from our daily briefings in a new weekly format so you can stay up-to-date on the 2020 election with one weekly email.

  
Ballotpedia's Weekly Presidential News Briefing

Every weekday, Ballotpedia tracks the events that matter in the 2020 presidential election. 

Now, we’re bringing you the highlights from our daily briefings in a new weekly format so you can stay up-to-date on the 2020 election with one weekly email.

Share the latest from the campaign trail.

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Here’s the latest from the campaign trail.

Candidates by the Numbers

Candidates

There are nine new candidates running since last week, including two Democrats, three Republicans, and one Green. In total, 816 individuals are currently filed with the FEC to run for president.

Notable Quotes of the Week

“Seniors are the likeliest to actually cast ballots, with two-thirds of them voting in the 2018 midterms compared with 53% of the overall voting-age population. While the electorate in presidential years skews younger than in midterm ones, no Democratic presidential candidate has won seniors since Al Gore in 2000, and for the past five presidential-election cycles, every Republican nominee has won a larger share of seniors than his predecessor.”

– Michelle Hackman, The Wall Street Journal

“There are a whole set of unspoken assumptions at play when we call a particular candidate ‘electable.’ … What nobody suggests is that electability might be a function of getting your own party’s voters excited and engaged. That’s despite the fact that we’ve seen one election after another in recent decades in which a candidate who excited his party defeated a candidate whose own voters were lukewarm about their nominee. Barack Obama was not electable by any of the standards we’re applying to the 2020 candidates, but he won twice, and by substantial margins. Donald Trump was not remotely electable, but he won, too.

– Paul Waldman, The Washington Post

Week in Review

John Hickenlooper exits 2020 presidential race

John Hickenlooper suspended his presidential campaign Thursday. In a video announcement, Hickenlooper hinted at his next steps.

“People want to know what comes next for me. I’ve heard from so many Coloradans who want me to run for the United States Senate. They remind me how much is at stake for our country. And our state. I intend to give that some serious thought,” he said.

Hickenlooper is the fourth notable Democratic candidate to leave the presidential race, following former state Sen. Richard Ojeda, Rep. Eric Swalwell, and former Sen. Mike Gravel.

Other candidates have shrugged off questions about their status in the race:

  • Even if he does not qualify for the third primary debate, Bill de Blasio said he would remain in the presidential race. “I’m going to look at all the pieces and look, again, six months until anyone votes,” de Blasio said.

  • John Delaney said that he plans to remain in the race until at least the Iowa caucuses, whether or not he qualifies for any more debates.

  • Beto O’Rourke said he was focused only on his presidential campaign. “I will not in any scenario run for the United States Senate,” O’Rourke said Thursday.

Steyer reaches donor threshold for September and October debates

Tom Steyer announced Tuesday that he had reached the donor threshold for the September and October Democratic presidential primary debates with 130,000 individual contributors. With three qualifying polls, he is also one short of the polling threshold.

Three other candidates are also on the bubble. Julián Castro and Tulsi Gabbard have also met the fundraising threshold. Castro is missing one poll and Gabbard three. Kirsten Gillibrand has one qualifying poll but has not crossed the fundraising threshold.

Steve Bullock criticized the debate criteria after Steyer, who entered the race on July 9, spent more than $10 million on Facebook and television ads in national and early primary state markets.

“The DNC donor requirement may have been added with the right intentions, but there’s no doubt that it’s created a situation in which billionaires can buy their way onto the debate stage,” he said. “We’re kidding ourselves if we’re calling a $10 million purchase of 130,000 donors a demonstration of grassroots support.”

Steyer campaign manager Heather Hargreaves responded, “Fewer than half of Tom’s donations came from advertising. Writing off the support of thousands of Democratic voters who are responding to Tom’s message isn’t the way to beat Trump in 2020, no matter what you think about the DNC’s criteria.”

Candidates attend gun violence forum in Iowa, release rural and domestic terrorism policies

Nearly the entire Democratic field was in Iowa over the weekend. Seventeen candidates participated in a forum on gun violence hosted by Everytown for Gun Safety, Moms Demand Action, and Students Demand Action.

Wayne Messam, Seth Moulton, Beto O’Rourke, and Donald Trump were the only candidates who did not head to the Hawkeye State. Moulton is scheduled to appear at the Soapbox on Aug. 17.

Candidates also continued to introduce policy plans related to rural issues and domestic terrorism:

  • In his plan to address hate crimes, Cory Booker called for the creation of a White House Office on Hate Crimes and White Supremacist Violence. He would also have the Department of Justice and the FBI prioritize domestic terrorism as they do international terrorism.

  • Pete Buttigieg released a rural economy plan focused on entrepreneurship, technology, and education.

  • Kamala Harris unveiled her plan to combat domestic terrorism, which included red flag measures called “Domestic Terrorism Prevention Orders” and background check requirements for websites that sell firearms.

  • Elizabeth Warren introduced her gun violence platform, seeking to reduce the number of gun deaths in the country by 80 percent. Her plan would create a federal licensing program, cap firearm purchases, change the laws to protect survivors of domestic abuse, and raise taxes on gun manufacturers.

Candidates on the cusp

Stacey Abrams announced Tuesday that she would not run for president, focusing instead on combating voter suppression. 

“If any of the nominees offered me the opportunity to run with them as their vice president after they have been selected as a nominee, of course I’d be honored to consider that,” she added.

Mark Sanford released another campaign-style video Monday on how to address the federal deficit. “Some have suggested starting an advocacy group. Others have suggested running in the Republican primary against the president as a way of elevating the issue and changing the debate,” he said.

Sanford said he would make a decision about entering the presidential race by around Labor Day.

Trump on the trail

Donald Trump held a rally Thursday in Manchester, New Hampshire, where he discussedthe economy, tariffs, the Democratic field, and mental health policy. He said the stock market will crash if he is not reelected in 2020.

He also spoke to energy workers in Pennsylvania as part of an official White House event that touched on campaign issues Wednesday. He criticized several Democratic candidates by name, mentioned union support, and promoted his immigration and economic policies.

Want more? Find the daily details here:

Facebook ads

Poll Spotlight

Poll spotlight

Poll spotlight

Staff Spotlight

Staff spotlight

Stephen Brokaw worked on Barack Obama’s (D) 2008 and 2012 campaigns. He graduated from Harvard University in 2006 and obtained his law degree from the University of Illinois in 2012.

Previous campaign work:

  • 2012 Barack Obama presidential campaign, digital project manager

  • 2008 Barack Obama presidential campaign, delegate tracker and senior political generalist

Other experience:

  • 2016-2019: Google, Metro expansion lead and Grow with Google marketing manager

  • 2014-2015: 270 Strategies, senior vice president, general counsel, and principal

  • 2013-2014: Schiff Hardin LLP, associate

What We’re Reading

Flashback: August 12-16, 2015

  • August 12, 2015: Hillary Clinton hired Heather Stone as the campaign’s chief of staff and Craig Smith as a paid consultant.

  • August 13, 2015: The Cook Political Reported shifted Pennsylvania’s presidential race rating, categorizing it as a Toss Up from Leans Democratic.

  • August 14, 2015: Eighteen presidential candidates were set to visit the 11-day 2015 Iowa State Fair.

  • August 15, 2015: Donald Trump said he was willing to spend $1 billion on his presidential campaign.

  • August 16, 2015: The Trump campaign released its first policy paper on immigration, which called for the construction of a border wall, tripling the number of ICE officers, ending birthright citizenship, and criminalizing visa overstays.

Trivia

Since 1900, which state other than Ohio has the best record of backing winning presidential candidates?

  1. Illinois→

  2. Pennsylvania→

  3. New Mexico→

  4. Florida→

blank

 

 



The Daily Brew: Eleven days until Mississippi’s Republican gubernatorial runoff

By Dave Beaudoin
In Newsletters
August 16, 2019 at 1:59 PM
Today’s Brew checks in on the Republican primary runoff for Mississippi’s governor’s race + a fourth Democratic presidential candidate exits the race  
 The Daily Brew

Welcome to the Friday, Aug. 16, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. Third-place finisher endorses runner-up in Mississippi’s Republican primary runoff
  2. Former Colorado Gov. Hickenlooper (D) ends presidential campaign
  3. What’s the Tea?

Third-place finisher endorses runner-up in Mississippi’s Republican primary runoff

State Rep. Robert Foster endorsed former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Bill Waller Jr. in the Aug. 27 Republican gubernatorial runoff primary. 

Foster finished third in the Aug. 6 primary, winning with 18% of the vote. Waller finished second with 33%. First-place finisher Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves won 49% of the vote.  

Because no candidate received a majority, Reeves and Waller advanced to the Aug. 27 runoff.

At a news conference announcing his endorsement, Foster said, “In the end, we each just have one vote, or we can stay home. But if you don’t want to see Jim Hood win in November, I encourage you to join me in voting for Bill Waller.” 

Reeves and Waller both began airing new ads this week. Reeves’ ad criticized Waller for supporting Medicaid expansion in Mississippi and backing an increase in the state gas tax. Waller’s ad said that while Reeves was focused on attacking him, Waller was focused on proposing solutions to the challenges facing Mississippi.

The most recent campaign finance reports show Reeves with $5 million cash on hand to Waller’s $118,000. The next campaign finance reporting deadline is Aug. 20—one week before the runoff.

The winner of the Aug. 27 primary runoff will face the Democratic nominee, Attorney General Jim Hood, in the Nov. 5 general election. Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the general election as “Leans Republican” and Cook Political Report rates the contest as “Likely Republican.” Ronnie Musgrove was the last Democrat elected governor of Mississippi. He defeated Rep. Mike Parker (R) 49.6-48.5% in 1999.

Learn more

        

Former Colorado Gov. Hickenlooper (D) ends presidential campaign

Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) announced yesterday he would end his campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination. In a statement and video, Hickenlooper said in part, “This morning, I’m announcing that I’m no longer running for President. While this campaign didn’t have the outcome we were hoping for, every moment has been worthwhile & I’m thankful to our entire team.” Hickenlooper has said he is considering running for the U.S. Senate.

Hickenlooper announced he was running for president on March 4. He served two terms as governor of Colorado and was also mayor of Denver. Hickenlooper participated in both Democratic primary debates—on June 27 and July 30—held so far. He campaigned the third-most days of any Democratic presidential candidate in Iowa—21—through the end of July.

Hickenlooper is the fourth Democratic elected official or notable public figure—after Richard Ojeda (W. Va.), Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), and Mike Gravel (Alaska)—to exit the Democratic presidential primary. 

In the 2016 presidential race, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry was the first Republican elected official or notable public figure to leave the race. Perry suspended his campaign Sept. 11, 2015, after announcing his candidacy on June 4, 2015.

Learn more→

What's the tea?

Regular Brew readers know that I enjoy covering the Supreme Court, but I know that’s not true for everybody. So, for this week’s question, How much coverage would you like to see in the Brew about SCOTUS?

 



New KY state legislative special election

By Marielle Bricker
In State
August 15, 2019 at 4:09 PM

A new state legislative special election has been added to our list. The special election is for the District 63 seat in the Kentucky House of Representatives on November 5, 2019. The Democratic and Republican parties will nominate the general election candidates.



Hickenlooper expected to suspend presidential campaign

By Emily Aubert
In Newsletters
August 15, 2019 at 11:09 AM
Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing

August 15, 2019: John Hickenlooper is expected to suspend his presidential campaign Thursday. Donald Trump will hold his first campaign rally in New Hampshire this year.

Poll Spotlight

Notable Quote of the Day

“Looking back at the 2016 cycle, the number of GOP endorsements didn’t really balloon either until February 2016, when the first four primary contests occurred. During that month, 56 Republican senators, representatives and governors endorsed or switched their endorsements. And Trump only got his first endorsement from a member of Congress or governor on Feb. 24, one day after he won the Nevada caucuses and four days after winning the South Carolina primary. It wasn’t until late March that more than 50 percent of Republicans had endorsed a presidential candidate. …

When party leaders stay out or support a range of candidates, the nomination race tends to be wide open. And while, according to Karol, some of the leading Democratic contenders may have an easier time being accepted by different factions of the party than, say, Bush or Cruz in 2016, signs still point to an unpredictable contest.”

– Geoffrey Skelley, FiveThirtyEight

Democrats

  • In an interview on CNN, Michael Bennet said that pushing for a mandatory gun buyback program would be “a recipe for getting nothing done.”

  • Bill de Blasio will hold his first open press conference in three weeks in New York City.

  • Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, and Julián Castro will speak at the Young Leaders Conference Friday in Atlanta, Georgia.

  • Booker and Amy Klobuchar addressed union members at the International Union of Painters and Allied Trades annual convention in Las Vegas.

  • John Delaney discussed why he opposed wealth tax proposals on Fox Business Network.

  • Kirsten Gillibrand discussed the possibility of a mandatory federal buyback program Wednesday. “I think we should ban assault weapons as well as large magazines, and as part of passing that ban, do a buyback program across the country so that those who own them can be … compensated for their money that they spent,” she said.

  • Kamala Harris unveiled her plan to combat domestic terrorism, which included red flag measures called “Domestic Terrorism Prevention Orders” and background check requirements for websites that sell firearms.

  • Marcia Fudge endorsed Harris Thursday, marking her tenth endorsement from a member of the Congressional Black Caucus.

  • John Hickenlooper is expected to suspend his presidential campaign Thursday, according to the Associated Press.

  • Jay Inslee tweeted that he was 10,000 donors away from crossing the fundraising threshold for the third primary debate.

  • Wayne Messam was in Miramar, Florida, Wednesday, meeting with students, parents, and educators on the first day of school.

  • Seth Moulton toured the Veterans Community Project Wednesday.

  • Beto O’Rourke returns to the campaign trail Thursday after he canceled events for two weeks to remain in Texas following the El Paso mass shooting.

  • In response to what Bernie Sanders called the “corporate media’s dislike of our campaign,” Sanders is launching a digital newsletter about the election called the Bern Notice.

  • Elizabeth Warren campaigned in New Hampshire Wednesday.

  • The Los Angeles Times interviewed Andrew Yang about gun violence, automation, and universal basic income.

Republicans

  • Donald Trump will bring his campaign to New Hampshire for the first time this year, holding a rally in Manchester on Thursday.

On the Cusp: Tracking Potential Candidates

  • Mark Sanford said he would make a decision about entering the presidential race by Labor Day.

Flashback: August 15, 2015

Donald Trump said he was willing to spend $1 billion on his presidential campaign.


56 percent of 2019 state legislative elections lack a Democratic or Republican candidate

By Dave Beaudoin
In Newsletters
August 15, 2019 at 11:09 AM
The Daily Brew
Welcome to the Thursday, August 15, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. 56 percent of 2019’s state legislative races lack either a Democratic or Republican candidate
  2. Ballotpedia highlights 88 congressional battlegrounds in 2020
  3. Two weeks until our next quarterly presidential briefing webinar

56 percent of 2019’s state legislative races lack either a Democratic or Republican candidate

Four states—Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia—are holding regularly scheduled state legislative elections this year for 538 seats. The filing deadline has now passed in all four states, allowing us to compare the percentage of seats having major party competition to prior years. 

Of the 538 state legislative seats up for election, 299 of them—55.6%—lack either a Democratic or Republican candidate. 158—29.4%—do not have a Democratic candidate on the ballot, and another 141—26.2%—do not have a Republican candidate.

Only one state legislative race has no major-party candidates on the ballot. Louisiana State Rep. Joseph Marino is nonpartisan and is unopposed for re-election.

Here’s the breakdown by state: 

Seats without major party competition And here’s how the numbers compare to previous odd-numbered election years, from 2011 through 2019: 

Historical races without major party opposition

Learn more
 

Early analysis: 88 congressional battleground elections in 2020 

In 2020, all 435 seats in the U.S. House and 34 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate are up for election. Our initial list of battleground races includes 88 of them—15 in the Senate and 73 in the House.

Battlegrounds are elections that we expect to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in government or to be particularly competitive or compelling. We selected this initial list of 2020 races based on past election results or whether the incumbent is seeking re-election or was recently elected for the first time. We also considered race ratings from outlets like the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections.

In the Senate, Republicans currently hold a 53-seat majority. Of the 34 seats up for election, Republicans are defending 22 seats while Democrats are defending 12. Ten battleground races are for seats held by Republicans and five are for seats held by Democrats. In 2018, Ballotpedia identified 16 battleground races—11 held by Democrats and five held by Republicans. 

Senate Battlegrounds

In the House, Democrats hold a 235-197 majority with one independent and two vacancies. Of our 73 battleground elections, Democrats hold 43 and Republicans hold 30. In 2018, Ballotpedia identified 82 battleground districts—73 held by Republicans and nine held by Democrats. Fifty-seven of the House races currently designated as battleground races for 2020 were also considered battleground races in 2018. 

House battlegrounds

We expect both battleground lists to change as the 2020 election approaches.

Click here to learn more about U.S. Senate battlegrounds→

Click here to learn more about U.S. House battlegrounds→

Two weeks until our next quarterly presidential briefing webinar

There have been two sets of Democratic debates since our last quarterly webinar on the 2020 presidential race. We’ve also seen the release of second-quarter fundraising reports and campaigns are actively hiring staff, issuing policies, and advertising in the early primary states.

Do you want to catch up on all the news from the summer and preview the months ahead? Join me in two weeks—on August 29 at 11 a.m. Central Time—for our free quarterly presidential briefing webinar. I’ll be joined by Emily Aubert, one of the primary authors of our daily and weekly Presidential News Briefing newsletters, to discuss who has qualified for the next primary debate, what the campaigns are doing, how the early state contests are shaping up, and more.

Twenty-six notable elected officials and public figures—24 Democrats and two Republicans—are running for their party’s nomination. With so much happening you’ll definitely want to join us as we examine the current state of the 2020 presidential race and what’s likely to happen next. Click the link below to reserve your spot.