Welcome to the Wednesday, May 1, Brew.
By: Ethan Sorell
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Fewer state legislative incumbents retiring than in previous years
- What the major party presidential nominees said about abortion in 2016, 2020, and 2024
- Candidate filing deadlines scheduled for the next two weeks
Fewer state legislative incumbents retiring than in previous years
Ballotpedia’s 2024 state primary election competitiveness data analyzes all state legislative, state executive, and congressional elections taking place this year. Today, let’s look at trends for state legislative incumbents in the 27 states where candidate filing deadlines have passed.
Incumbent trends since 2010
From 2010 to 2024, an average of 18.8% of state legislative seats have been open, meaning an incumbent has not run for re-election in those races.
- So far, 2024 has the lowest percentage of open state legislative seats (14.6%) since Ballotpedia began collecting data in 2010.
- The highest percentage of open state legislative seats was in 2022 (23.8%) after redistricting.
22.8% of incumbents who are running for re-election this year have primary competition.
- This is slightly more than the average of 21.7% from 2010 to 2024.
Incumbents retiring by state
- Seven states so far have more retiring incumbents this year than in 2022: Indiana, Maryland, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, and West Virginia.
- Eight states so far have fewer retiring incumbents this year than in 2022: Georgia, Illinois, Kentucky, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Texas.
- Nine states so far have the same number of retiring incumbents in 2024 as they did in 2022: Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Iowa, Maine, Mississippi, Montana, Nevada, and New Mexico.
- No incumbents are retiring in 12 states so far in 2024: Alaska, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Pennsylvania.
Contested Incumbents
- Six states so far have more incumbents in contested primaries than in 2022: Alabama, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.
- 11 states so far have fewer incumbents in contested primaries than in 2022: Alaska, Georgia, Illinois, Kentucky, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina, and South Dakota
Low numbers of incumbents retiring in several state legislatures
- In Georgia, there are 236 state legislative seats up for election this year. Seventeen incumbents (10 Democrats and seven Republicans) did not seek re-election. That was the fewest number of retirements since 2014. From 2010 to 2022, an average of 28 incumbents retired. In 2022, 48 incumbents (23 Democrats and 25 Republicans) did not run for re-election following redistricting.
- In Iowa, there are 125 state legislative seats up for election this year. Sixteen incumbents (three in the Senate and 13 in the House) did not seek re-election. An average of 22 incumbents retired between 2010 and 2022. In 2022, 40 incumbents (11 in the Senate and 29 in the House) did not run for re-election following redistricting.
- In Pennsylvania, there are 228 state legislative seats up for election. Seventeen incumbents (six Democrats and 11 Republicans) did not seek re-election. That was the fewest number of retirements since Ballotpedia began tracking this data in 2010. An average of 26.6 incumbents retired in each election cycle from 2010 to 2022. In 2022, 38 incumbents (nine Democrats and 28 Republicans) did not run for re-election.
To check out Ballotpedia’s coverage of primary election competitiveness across all 50 states, click here. Be sure to check back for a full Daily Brew report on state legislative, state executive, and congressional elections taking place in 2024 later this summer!
Major party presidential nominee stances on abortion since 2016
Since 2016, Ballotpedia has been tracking the major party presidential candidates’ stances on more than 45 different issues. President Joe Biden (D) and former President Donald Trump (R) are the presumptive nominees of their parties. Below are the major party presidential nominees’ positions on abortion in the 2016, 2020, and 2024 races. These positions were sourced from official campaign statements and communications.
2024 – In 2024, voters will participate in the first presidential election since the United States Supreme Court’s 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision. In Dobbs, the court ruled that there is no constitutional right to abortion, overturning Roe v. Wade.
Biden in 2024:
- As of April 23, Biden has not yet published an official issues page on his campaign website.
- On the campaign trail, Biden has said, “If I have anything to do with it, I’m going to end up signing a law reinstating Roe v. Wade.”
Trump in 2024:
- On April 8, Trump issued an official statement about his abortion policy on his campaign website.
- He said, “I was proudly the person responsible for the ending of something that all legal scholars, both sides, wanted and, in fact, demanded be ended: Roe v. Wade. They wanted it ended. […] My view is now that we have abortion where everybody wanted it from a legal standpoint, the states will determine by vote or legislation or perhaps both, and whatever they decide must be the law of the land, in this case the law of the state. Many states will be different, many will have a different number of weeks or some will have more conservative [laws] than others, and that’s what they will be. At the end of the day, this is all about the will of the people.”
2020 – In 2020, before Roe v. Wade was overturned, Trump and Biden had the following positions on abortion on their campaign websites.
Biden in 2020:
- Joe Biden’s campaign website said, “As president, Biden will work to codify Roe v. Wade, and his Justice Department will do everything in its power to stop the rash of state laws that so blatantly violate the constitutional right to an abortion, such as so-called TRAP laws, parental notification requirements, mandatory waiting periods, and ultrasound requirements. Biden will reissue guidance specifying that states cannot refuse Medicaid funding for Planned Parenthood and other providers that refer for abortions or provide related information and reverse the Trump Administration’s rule preventing Planned Parenthood and certain other family planning programs from obtaining Title X funds. Biden will rescind the Mexico City Policy (also called the global gag rule) that President Trump reinstated and expanded.”
Trump in 2020:
- Trump posted the following position on abortion to his campaign website: “The President has kept the promises he made in 2016 to the pro-life community and has delivered unprecedented victories for the pro-life movement: He successfully nominated two great judges to the U.S. Supreme Court, and nearly 200 additional federal judges. He took executive action to stop taxpayer money from flowing to Planned Parenthood, the largest abortion business in the country. He reinstated and expanded the ban on Americans’ tax dollars paying for abortions in foreign countries. He is standing with the Catholic nuns known as the Little Sisters of the Poor, defending them from Obama-era regulations forcing them to violate their religious beliefs by providing health insurance that covers abortifacients.”
2016 – In 2016, Trump and Hillary Clinton (D), the Democratic presidential nominee, issued the following positions on abortion.
Clinton in 2016
- Clinton’s campaign website said, “Women’s personal health decisions should be made by a woman, her family, and her faith, with the counsel of her doctor. Hillary will stand up to Republican attempts to defund Planned Parenthood, which would restrict access to critical health care services, like cancer screenings, contraception, and safe, legal abortion. She will fight to protect the Affordable Care Act, which bans insurance companies from discriminating against women and guarantees 47 million women and counting access to preventive care.”
Trump in 2016
- Trump wrote a letter to anti-abortion leaders where he said, “I am committed to: nominating pro-life justices to the U.S. Supreme Court, signing into law the Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act, which would end painful late-term abortions nationwide, defunding Planned Parenthood as long as they continue to perform abortions, and reallocating their funding to community health centers that provide comprehensive health care for women, [and] making the Hyde Amendment permanent law to protect taxpayers from having to pay for abortions.”
Click the links below to read more about presidential candidates’ abortion positions in 2016, 2020, and 2024.
- 2024 presidential candidates on abortion
- 2020 presidential candidates on abortion
- 2016 presidential candidates on abortion
To explore all 45 issues we are currently tracking in the 2024 presidential election, click here.
Candidate filing deadlines scheduled for the next two weeks
With the 2024 election cycle well on its way, it is a great time to take a look at important upcoming filing deadlines that candidates need to be aware of to run in their state’s primary election.
In order to get on the ballot, candidates must meet a variety of state-specific filing requirements and deadlines. These regulations, known as ballot access laws, determine whether and how candidates appear on an election ballot. These laws are set at the state level and apply to candidates running for state or federal offices.
Three states and one U.S. territory have upcoming candidate filing deadlines in the next two weeks. The map and bulleted list below shows which states have candidate filing deadlines scheduled between May 1 and May 14, 2024.
- Guam: May 3 (candidate filing deadline).
- Massachusetts: May 7 (statewide candidate filing deadline).
- Texas: May 13 (presidential filing deadline for unaffiliated candidates).
- Washington: May 10 (statewide candidate filing deadline).
Looking back
The three states listed below had candidate filing deadlines scheduled in the past two weeks.
- Florida: April 26 (statewide candidate filing deadline for the following offices: U.S. Congress, state attorney, public defender, state supreme court, district appeals court, and circuit court).
- Michigan: April 23 (statewide candidate filing deadline).
- South Dakota: April 30 (statewide filing deadline for unaffiliated candidates).
Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more information about running for office in upcoming contests!