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Another 2020 filing deadline today

The Daily Brew
Welcome to the Tuesday, November 12, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
  1. Arkansas’ 2020 filing deadline is today, Nov. 12
  2. Colorado voters split on two statewide ballot measures in 2019
  3. Register for tomorrow’s quarterly briefing on the presidential race

Arkansas’ 2020 filing deadline is today, Nov. 12

One week has passed since Election Day 2019 and already the second candidate filing deadline for 2020’s federal and state elections passes at noon today in Arkansas. Alabama’s candidate filing deadline was last week—on Nov. 8—and the filing deadlines for California, North Carolina, and Texas are in December. Here are the offices to be decided next year in Arkansas:

  • One U.S. Senate seat

  • All four U.S. House seats

  • Seventeen of the 35 seats in the state Senate

  • All 100 seats in the state House

  • One of seven seats on the state Supreme Court

  • Five of 12 seats on the Arkansas Court of Appeals—the state’s intermediate appellate court

  • Three statewide ballot measures

Partisan primaries for the federal and state legislative seats—along with nonpartisan general elections for the judicial seats—will be held on March 3, 2020. Runoff primaries for legislative seats will take place on March 31 if no candidate receives a majority of the vote. The state uses an open primary system, in which registered voters do not have to be members of a party to vote in that party’s primary.

Alabama, California, North Carolina, and Texas are also holding primaries on March 3.

Arkansas’ filing deadline for independent candidates running for the U.S. Senate or U.S. House seats is May 1, 2020. General elections for legislative seats—and runoff elections for the judicial seats—will take place on November 3, 2020. Voters will also decide statewide ballot measures on that date.

In order to appear on the ballot for a state or federal office, a candidate must meet a variety of state-specific filing requirements and deadlines. Partisan candidates for the U.S. Senate or House must pay a filing fee that ranges from $10,000 to $20,000 depending on the party and office. You can read more about candidate requirements here

The next five statewide filing deadlines—all in 2019—are: Illinois (12/2), California (12/6), Texas (12/9), Ohio (12/18), and North Carolina (12/20). You can view the full list of filing deadlines for the 2020 election cycle here.

Learn more

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Colorado voters split on two statewide ballot measures in 2019 

Colorado voters approved one and rejected one statewide ballot measure last week. Both measures were required to go before voters in accordance with the state’s Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights (TABOR), passed in 1992. TABOR limits the amount of money the state of Colorado can take in and spend and it requires the state to refund revenue above a spending cap to taxpayers.

Colorado voters rejected Proposition CC, 54% to 46%. It would have allowed the state to keep revenue above the state spending cap to provide funding for transportation and education. The Colorado Legislative Council Staff estimated that the measure would have allowed the state to retain about $310 million in additional revenue in 2019-2020 and $342 million in 2020-2021. It would have required the state auditor to hire a private entity to conduct an annual financial audit regarding use of funds as provided under the measure. 

The Colorado State Legislature placed Proposition CC on the ballot along party lines. Legislative Democrats voted for the bill referring the measure to voters, while legislative Republicans voted against the bill. Gov. Jared Polis (D) supported Proposition CC. Supporters raised $4.45 million and opponents raised $1.75 million. 

Colorado voters approved Proposition DD, 51% to 49%. The measure legalizes sports betting in the state and authorizes the legislature to levy a tax of 10% on those conducting sports betting operations to fund state water projects. It required voter approval under TABOR since it proposed to implement a new tax. Colorado becomes the 14th state with an active sports betting industry. 

According to the legislature’s fiscal impact statement, the 10% tax on sports betting proceeds is expected to generate around $10 million in revenue for Fiscal Year (FY) 2020-21 and between $13.5 to $15.2 million for FY 2021-22. Revenue from the tax was designed to create and fund the Water Plan Implementation Cash Fund and to fund expenses related to the administration and regulation of sports betting in Colorado.  

Register for tomorrow’s quarterly briefing on the presidential race

I hope you enjoyed last week’s briefings that discussed Tuesday’s key election and ballot measure results. 

We’re hosting another webinar tomorrow—Nov. 13 at 11 a.m. Central time—which is our quarterly look at the presidential race. This is one of my favorite presentations every quarter as we take a step back from the daily news to discuss the upcoming primary debates, trends in support among the leading candidates, and early state nominating contests. 

As always, I’ll be joined by Emily Aubert, the primary author of our daily and weekly Presidential News Briefing newsletters.

Twenty-two notable elected officials and public figures—17 Democrats and five Republicans—are running for their party’s nomination. The Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary are less than three months away—in early February—so we’ll have lots to talk about. And like our other webinars, if you can’t attend, we’ll send you a link to the recording when it’s available.

Click here to register




Eric Holder and Deval Patrick consider 2020 presidential bids

Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing

November 12, 2019: Eric Holder and Deval Patrick are reportedly considering late 2020 presidential runs. Michigan released its initial candidate list, which included Michael Bloomberg. blankblank   


How many counties backed Donald Trump in 2016 after backing Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012?

Notable Quote of the Day

“Indeed, given Trump’s fairly low approval ratings and the high level of partisan polarization, Trump’s vote share likely has both a clear floor and ceiling. The 2020 Democratic nominee will probably enter the general election limited by a similarly narrow bound. Given this floor, Sanders and Warren are electable, even if they might be marginally less electable than Biden.

‘It might make sense to talk about things in terms of a threshold, that someone is ‘electable “enough,”’ said Hans Noel, a Georgetown University professor and expert on party politics.”

– Perry Bacon Jr.

Democrats

  • Michigan released its initial list of candidates for the presidential primary ballot. Among the 18 Democrats listed were Michael Bloomberg, who has not formally declared his candidacy, and Wayne Messam and Joe Sestak, neither of whom have participated in any presidential primary debates.

  • The Michael Bennet campaign announced on Monday that it planned to expand its presence in New Hampshire, opening three new offices and hiring additional staffers.

  • Joe Biden participated in a televised town hall on CNN on Monday. He also released his plan for veterans services, which included updating compensation, increasing the amount of time between permanent change of station moves, and developing programs for military spouses.

  • Cory Booker campaigned in Iowa on Saturday and Sunday, touring local small businesses.

  • Steve Bullock campaigned in New Hampshire on Monday and will file for the state primary on Tuesday.

  • Pete Buttigieg discussed racial inequity in policing in an interview on NPR’s “Off Script” series. He also attended a fundraiser in Rhode Island on Sunday and released his veterans services plan, which includes increasing coordination between the VA and the Department of Defense to streamline medical care and improving care for aging veterans.

  • While campaigning in Iowa, Julián Castro called for the primary calendar to be restructured so that states representative of the country’s demographic diversity vote earlier than Iowa and New Hampshire.

  • In an interview with The Wall Street JournalJohn Delaney discussed globalization, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and U.S.-China trade relations.

  • Tulsi Gabbard campaigned in Los Angeles on Sunday and Monday. Her campaign also released a letter on Monday calling for Hillary Clinton to retract statements she made about Gabbard in an October interview.

  • Kamala Harris campaigned in South Carolina on Monday, holding an event with veterans.

  • Amy Klobuchar spoke at a veteran’s day event in Minnesota on Monday.

  • Bernie Sanders issued his veterans policy plan on Monday, which included investing $62 billion to repair and modernize hospitals and clinics.

  • Sestak visited with detained veterans at the SCI Phoenix maximum security prison in Pennsylvania on Monday.

  • Tom Steyer participated in a televised town hall on CNN in Iowa, where he discussed climate change, Michael Bloomberg’s possible candidacy, and expanding the Affordable Care Act.

  • Elizabeth Warren campaigned in South Carolina on Saturday and New Hampshire on Monday.

  • Marianne Williamson began a campaign visit to Nevada on Saturday, attending town halls in Las Vegas.

  • The New York Times profiled Andrew Yang’s campaign from its beginnings in late 2017.

Republicans

On the Cusp: Tracking Potential Candidates

  • Former Attorney General Eric Holder reportedly spoke with strategists about a potential 2020 presidential bid.

  • Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick is considering entering the Democratic primary, according to a The New York Times report.

Flashback: November 15, 2015

According to an analysis of SMG Delta advertising numbers, Jeb Bush and his supporters were more than doubling the television ad spending of his nearest competitor, Marco Rubio.

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Joe Biden leads in Ballotpedia pageviews for third consecutive week; Kamala Harris has largest week-over-week increase

Each week, we report the number of pageviews received by 2020 presidential campaigns on Ballotpedia. These numbers show which candidates are getting our readers’ attention.
 
Joe Biden’s campaign page on Ballotpedia received 3,996 views for the week of November 3-9. Biden’s pageview figure represents 10.8% of the pageviews for the week. Elizabeth Warren had 9.7% of the pageviews for the week, followed by Bernie Sanders with 9.1%. This is Biden’s third week in a row with the most pageviews.
 
Every Democratic candidate had more pageviews last week than the week before. The three candidates with the largest week-over-week increases were Kamala Harris (61.7%), Joe Biden (51.4%), and Bernie Sanders (50.9%).
 
Andrew Yang remains the leader in overall pageviews this year with 139,064. He is followed by Pete Buttigieg with 131,612 and Joe Biden with 124,371.
 


Two 2020 Congressional retirements announced last week; 1,884 major party candidates filed for 2020 Congressional races

In the past week, two members of the 116th Congress announced that they would not seek re-election in 2020. Rep. Peter Visclosky (D-Ind.) announced his retirement on November 6 and Peter King (R-N.Y.) announced his retirement on November 11. To date, four Senators (three Republicans and one Democrat) and 28 Representatives (20 Republicans and eight Democrats) are not running for re-election. In 2018, 55 total members of Congress—18 Democrats and 37 Republicans—did not seek re-election.
 
As of November 11, 2019, 286 candidates are filed with the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) to run for U.S. Senate in 2020. Of those, 251—133 Democrats and 118 Republicans—are from one of the two major political parties. In 2018, 527 candidates filed with the FEC to run for U.S. Senate, including 137 Democrats and 240 Republicans.
 
1,738 candidates are filed with the FEC to run for U.S. House in 2020. Of those, 1,633—816 Democrats and 817 Republicans—are from one of the two major political parties. In 2018, 3,244 candidates filed with the FEC, including 1,566 Democrats and 1,155 Republicans.
 
On November 3, 2020, 35 Senate seats and all 435 House seats are up for election. Of those Senate seats, 33 are regularly-scheduled elections, one is a special election in Arizona, and another is an expected special election in Georgia. Twelve are Democratic-held seats and 23 are Republican-held seats. In the House, where all the seats are up for election, Democrats currently hold a 234-seat majority.
 
Additional reading:


Bloomberg signals 2020 presidential bid, prepares to file for Alabama primary

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is reportedly preparing to run for president. Bloomberg has not yet announced that he is running for president, although Axios reported that he is looking to meet upcoming filing deadlines in Arkansas, New Hampshire, Florida, California, and Texas.
 
Bloomberg previously said in March 2019 that he would not enter the presidential race. He wrote in an op-ed, “I know what it takes to run a winning campaign, and every day when I read the news, I grow more frustrated by the incompetence in the Oval Office. I know we can do better as a country. And I believe I would defeat Donald Trump in a general election. But I am clear-eyed about the difficulty of winning the Democratic nomination in such a crowded field.”
 
With an estimated net worth of $52 billion, Bloomberg would self-fund his campaign if he entered the presidential race, joining 17 other candidates in the Democratic primary.
 
Iowa caucusgoers cast the first vote of the presidential election in 87 days on Feb. 3, 2020.


Federal Register weekly update; 2019 page total surpasses 60,000 pages

The Federal Register is a daily journal of federal government activity that includes presidential documents, proposed and final rules, and public notices. It is a common measure of an administration’s regulatory activity.
 
During the week of November 4 to November 8, the Federal Register increased by 1,594 pages, bringing the year-to-date total to 60,882 pages. The week’s Federal Register featured a total of 483 documents, including 370 notices, 11 presidential documents, 44 proposed rules, and 58 final rules.
 
Two proposed rules and one final rule were deemed significant under E.O. 12866—meaning that they could have large impacts on the economy, environment, public health, or state or local governments. Significant actions may also conflict with presidential priorities or other agency rules.
 
During the same week in 2018, the number of pages in the Federal Register increased by 1,008 pages for a year-to-date total of 56,254 pages. As of November 8, the 2019 total led the 2018 total by 4,628 pages.
 
The Trump administration has added an average of 1,353 pages to the Federal Register each week in 2019 as of November 8. Over the course of 2018, the Trump administration added an average of 1,301 pages to the Federal Register each week. During the Obama administration, the Federal Register increased by an average of 1,658 pages per week.
 
According to government data, the Federal Register hit an all-time high of 95,894 pages in 2016.
 
Ballotpedia maintains page counts and other information about the Federal Register as part of its Administrative State Project. The project is a neutral, nonpartisan encyclopedic resource that defines and analyzes the administrative state, including its philosophical origins, legal and judicial precedents, and scholarly examinations of its consequences. The project also monitors and reports on measures of federal government activity.
 
Additional reading:
 
Click here to find yearly information about additions to the Federal Register from 1936 to 2016.


Peter Visclosky announces 2020 retirement

Rep. Peter Visclosky (D-Ind.) announced that he would not seek re-election to Congress in 2020. Visclosky was first elected to represent Indiana’s 1st Congressional District in 1984 and he won re-election in 2018 by a 30-point margin. There are currently no declared candidates in the district.
 
Upon the announcement, Visclosky became the eighth Democratic member of the U.S. House to announce he would not be seeking re-election in 2020. There were also 19 Republican members of the U.S. House to announce 2020 retirements so far. In the 2018 election cycle, 52 members of the U.S. House—18 Democrats and 34 Republicans—did not seek re-election.
 
Currently, Democrats hold a 234-197 majority in the U.S. House with one independent member of the chamber. In November 2020, all 435 seats will be up for election.
 
Additional reading:
 


2019 state appeals court election roundup

On November 5, there were two state judgeships up for election in Kentucky, six up in Pennsylvania, and three up in Washington state. They are among five states in 2019—Kentucky, Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin—that scheduled elections for 17 appeals court judgeships. This included three state supreme court justice positions and 14 intermediate appellate court judgeships.
 
  • Kentucky: Christopher Nickell defeated Whitney Westerfield to win the Kentucky Supreme Court 1st District judgeship, and Jacqueline Caldwell defeated Michael Caperton to win the Kentucky Court of Appeals 3rd District, Division 1 judgeship. Both were nonpartisan special elections.
  • Pennsylvania: Two seats on the Pennsylvania Superior Court were up for partisan election, and the race remained too close to call as of November 7. The two leading vote recipients were Daniel McCaffery (D) and Megan McCarthy King (R) with 25.74% and 25.57% of the vote, respectively; Amanda Green-Hawkins (D) trailed in third place with 24.95% and Christylee Peck (R) was in fourth at 23.74%. Four sitting judges—Kevin Brobson and Patricia McCullough on the Pennsylvania Commonwealth Court and Anne Lazarus and Judith F. Olson on the Pennsylvania Superior Court—all won retention elections with more than 70% of the vote.
  • Washington: A trio of Washington Court of Appeals judges—John Chun, Lori Smith, and Anne Cruser—won re-election unopposed. All three were nonpartisan special elections; the incumbents had been appointed to vacancies on the court in either June 2018 or February 2019.
  • Wisconsin held its state judicial elections for four seats in February and April.
  • Louisiana had one seat on the ballot in March, but it has another up for general election on November 16. William J. Crain (R) and Hans J. Liljeberg (R) are running in that special election to fill the District 1 seat on the Louisiana Supreme Court that was vacated by Greg Guidry (R), who was appointed to a federal judgeship earlier this year.
 
In 2020, there are 280 state appeals court judgeships scheduled to be on the ballot in 36 states. This includes 81 state supreme court justice positions across 35 states and another 199 intermediate appellate court judgeships across 29 states. These totals are similar to the 2018 election cycle, which featured 296 state judgeships up for election.
 


Boston votes against advising the city to rename Dudley Square to Nubian Square

Boston voters defeated a nonbinding advisory question regarding the name change of Dudley Square to Nubian Square. With 100% of precincts reporting, the margin was 45.7% in favor and 54.3% against. Dudley Square was named for Thomas Dudley, the second governor of the Massachusetts Bay Colony, who served from 1634 to 1651. It is located in the Roxbury neighborhood of Boston, Massachusetts. Efforts to change the name of Dudley Square began in 2016. Nubia is an ancient African kingdom that was located in present-day Sudan. Nubian Square was chosen to represent the African-American community, which makes up 53 percent of the population in Dudley Square. The result of the election is nonbinding. The future of Dudley Square will ultimately be determined by the city.
 
The Committee on Governance reported to the Boston City Council that the names Dudley and Nubian have received scrutiny for their respective affiliations to slavery. The committee’s report said, “Some comments reflected support of changing the name from Dudley Square but do not support the name change to Nubian Square because of Nubia’s ties to slavery.”
 


Texas voters approve Proposition 4, which bans a state income tax

Proposition 4 added language to the Texas Constitution banning a state income tax on individuals. The vote was 74% in favor to 26% against.
 
Before Proposition 4, the Texas State Constitution required the state legislature to put legislation enacting an income tax before voters as a statewide referendum, which voters could approve or reject. Placing a referendum before voters required a simple majority vote (50%+1) in each legislative chamber. Since Proposition 4’s ban on an income tax is a provision of the Texas Constitution, a two-thirds vote in each legislative chamber and a statewide referendum is needed to repeal or amend the ban. Therefore, one of the practical effects of Proposition 4 is to increase the legislative vote requirement to authorize an income tax.
 
The Texas State Legislature placed Proposition 4 on the ballot in one of the narrowest votes between 1995 and 2019. In Texas, a two-thirds vote is required to place a constitutional amendment on the ballot, which is equal to 100 votes in the state House and 21 votes in the state Senate, assuming no vacancies. The constitutional amendment received 100 in the state House and 22 votes in the state Senate. Most legislative Democrats (65 percent) opposed Proposition 4. Legislative Republicans, along with 29 percent of legislative Democrats, supported the constitutional amendment.
 
The current Texas Constitution was adopted in 1876. Voters had addressed 677 proposed amendments before 2019, approving 498 (73.6%) and rejecting 179 (26.4%). The rate of approval has been higher in recent years, with 91.2 percent being approved since 1995.


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