Update on abortion on the ballot—11 states with potential measures

By

Andrew Kronaizl

Welcome to the Tuesday, April 9, Brew. 

By: Andrew Kronaizl

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. Update on abortion on the ballot—11 states with potential measures
  2. Nine candidates are running in the Democratic primary for Oregon’s 3rd Congressional District
  3. State supreme court vacancy count for March 2024

Update on abortion on the ballot—11 states with potential measures

In November, voters in three states—Florida, Maryland, and New York—will decide on abortion-related ballot measures. At least 14 other potential measures could appear on the ballot in 11 other states.

Over the past few years, measures supported by campaigns that describe themselves as pro-choice or pro-reproductive rights have become more common than measures supported by campaigns that describe themselves as pro-life. The three measures currently confirmed for statewide ballots in 2024 have the support of campaigns that call themselves pro-choice.

Below is the list of certified measures that will appear on the ballot, as well as measures that could appear on the ballot in 2024.

Certified abortion-related ballot measures

Florida

Amendment 4 would establish a constitutional right to abortion “before viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider.”

  1. Current law: On April 1, 2024, the Florida Supreme Court ruled that the state constitution’s right to privacy does not include the right to abortion. The ruling overturned a 1989 court decision that found that the privacy clause did include a right to abortion. The ruling allowed the state’s 15-week abortion ban, which the legislature passed in 2022, to take effect. In 2023, the Legislature passed another bill, known as the Heartbeat Protection Act, to ban abortion at six weeks. That bill would only take effect if the state supreme court overturned its earlier ruling and allowed the 15-week ban to stand. The six-week ban will take effect on May 1. Before 2022, abortions were legal in Florida until 24 weeks.
  2. Measure type: Initiated constitutional amendment
  3. Measure support: Floridians Protecting Freedom is leading the campaign supporting the initiative. Supporters include the ACLU of Florida, League of Women Voters of Florida, and Planned Parenthood of Southwest and Central Florida.
  4. Measure opposition: Florida Voice for the Unborn is leading the campaign in opposition to the initiative. Opponents include Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, the National Center for Life and Liberty, and Florida Voters Against Extremism.
  5. State political context: Florida currently has a Republican trifecta. In the 2020 presidential election, then-President Donald Trump (R) carried Florida, defeating Joe Biden (D) 51.2% to 47.9%.

Maryland

Maryland voters will decide a constitutional amendment that would guarantee a right to reproductive freedom, including the ability to prevent, continue, or end one’s own pregnancy. The amendment would prohibit the constitutional right from being denied or infringed unless there is a compelling state interest, which would need to be achieved using the least restrictive means.

  1. Current law: Abortion is currently legal in Maryland until viability. Abortion is legal after viability if the woman’s life or health is endangered or there is a fetal anomaly.
  2. Measure type: Legislatively referred constitutional amendment
  3. Measure support: Freedom in Reproduction Maryland is leading the campaign supporting the amendment. Supporters include Gov. Wes Moore (D), Lt. Gov. Aruna Miller (D), the Maryland AFL-CIO, and the Maryland State Education Association.
  4. Measure opposition: Health Not Harm MD is leading the campaign against the amendment. Opponents include the Maryland Catholic Conference, the Maryland Family Institute, and the Maryland Right to Life PAC.
  5. State political context: Maryland currently has a Democratic trifecta. In the 2020 presidential election, Biden carried Maryland, defeating Trump 65.4% to 32.2%.

New York

New York voters will decide a constitutional amendment to prohibit the denial of a person’s rights based on the person’s “ethnicity, national origin, age, [and] disability,” as well as the person’s “sex, including sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression, pregnancy, pregnancy outcomes, and reproductive healthcare and autonomy.” The New York State Legislature referred the amendment to the ballot.

  1. Current law: New York allows abortion up to 24 weeks of pregnancy. Abortion is permitted after 24 weeks if a health care practitioner determines the fetus is not viable or the pregnant woman’s life or health (including mental health) is at risk.
  2. Measure type: Legislatively referred constitutional amendment
  3. Measure support: New Yorkers for Equal Rights is leading the campaign to support the amendment. Supporters include Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), the League of Women Voters of New York, and the Planned Parenthood Action Fund.
  4. Measure opposition: Opponents of the amendment include the New York State Catholic Conference.
  5. State political context: New York currently has a Democratic trifecta. In the 2020 presidential election, Biden carried New York, defeating Trump 60.9% to 37.7%.

Potential abortion-related ballot measures in 2024

Below is a list of other abortion-related measures that could appear on the ballot this year broken down by their subject matter and whether they originate from citizens or the legislature:

  • Initiative campaigns have started in Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, and South Dakota to place constitutional amendments on the ballot that would either establish a right to abortion or prohibit laws that restrict abortion access. Colorado voters may also decide on an initiative that would prohibit the state or local governments from denying the right to an abortion.
  • Campaigns in Colorado and Nebraska are working to place state statutes on the ballot that would prohibit abortion. Nebraska voters may also decide on a constitutional amendment that would prohibit abortions after the first trimester.
  • The Maine Legislature may refer a constitutional amendment to the ballot that would establish a state constitutional right to personal reproductive autonomy. Maine has a Democratic trifecta.
  • The state legislatures of Iowa and Pennsylvania may refer constitutional amendments to the ballot that would say that the states’ constitutions do not provide abortion rights. Iowa has a Republican trifecta while Pennsylvania has a divided government.

Where has abortion appeared on the ballot since 2022?

Following the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision, seven abortion-related measures have been on state ballots. 

There were six such measures on the ballot in 2022—the most on record for a single year. Three of them were supported by campaigns that described themselves as pro-choice, and the other three were supported by campaigns that described themselves as pro-life. Measures were approved in California, Michigan, and Vermont. Measures were defeated in Kansas, Kentucky, and Montana. The most recent abortion-related ballot measure voters approved was Ohio Issue 1 in November 2023.

Click here to learn more about abortion-related ballot measures in 2023 and 2024. To read up on the history of abortion ballot measures, click here. To read about current abortion regulations by state, click here.

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Nine candidates are running in the Democratic primary for Oregon’s 3rd Congressional District

Throughout the year, we’ll bring you coverage of the most compelling primaries—the battleground elections we expect to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in governments or to be particularly competitive. You can catch our previous coverage of other battleground races here.

Today, we’re looking at the May 21 Democratic primary for Oregon’s 3rd Congressional District. Nine candidates are running, and three lead in media attention, endorsements, and fundraising: Maxine Dexter (D), Susheela Jayapal (D), and Eddy Morales (D).

This is the first open race in the district since 1996. Incumbent Earl Blumenauer (D) is retiring from public office. As of March 26, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, and Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball each rated the general election Safe/Solid Democratic.

Leading up to the primary, the three candidates have garnered endorsements from competing groups and individuals.

Dexter is a member of the Oregon House of Representatives and a pulmonary and critical care physician. Dexter said her legislative experience would help her successfully fight for the district in Congress: “I have proven myself to be a strong lawmaker who listens, leads and gets hard things done, all the while keeping my constituents at the center of my decisions – the same way I do when caring for my patients.” Oregon House Speaker Julie Fahey (D) and Senate President Rob Wagner (D) endorsed Dexter.

Jayapal is a former Multnomah County Commissioner and an attorney. Jayapal said she would work on the same issues in Congress that she addressed in county government, including “the homelessness crisis, public safety, [and] wages for front line workers.” Jayapal said she also wants to address broader issues such as “standing up for democracy.” U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Democratic U.S. Rep. Delia Ramirez (Ill.-03) endorsed Jayapal.

Morales is the Council President for the City of Gresham and a community organizer. Morales said he is running to “build on Congressman Earl Blumenauer’s legacy and bring fresh progressive energy and vision to this community that I love.” Former Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams (D) and the Human Rights Campaign endorsed Morales.

Also running in the primary are Ricky Barajas (D), Nolan Bylenga (D), Jeremiah Campion (D), Theodore Gwynn (D), Michael Jonas (D), and Rachel Rand (D).

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State supreme court vacancy count for March 2024

Ballotpedia has a comprehensive database covering vacancies on all 52 state supreme courts, including announced retirements, nominations, appointments, confirmations, and the swearing-in of justices. There are 344 state supreme court justices throughout the country. To fill vacancies, 47 states use appointments and three states use elections. For regular judicial selections, 26 states use appointments, 22 hold elections, and two go through the state legislature.

This month’s update covers changes from March 1 to March 31. The month was relatively quiet, with no new retirements, no new nominations, one new confirmation, and one justice sworn in. Eleven vacancies have occurred or been announced so far this year. Since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2019, the year with the highest number of vacancies was 2022 (25), and the year with the lowest was 2021 (19).

In 2024, 83 state supreme court seats will be up for election, which includes retention elections.

Announced retirements:

During the month of March, no sitting justices announced their intention to retire.

Candidates nominated/appointed:

During the month of March, no new candidates were nominated or appointed.

Nominees confirmed:

The Tennessee State Legislature confirmed Mary Wagner to serve on the Tennessee Supreme Court on March 11, 2024. Governor Bill Lee (R) nominated Wagner on Feb. 1, 2024. Wagner will succeed Justice Roger A. Page when he resigns on Aug. 31, 2024.

Justices sworn in:

Robert Jarosh was sworn into the Wyoming Supreme Court on March 27, 2024. Jarosh replaces outgoing Justice Keith Kautz, who retired on March 26, 2024. Jarosh is Gov. Mark Gordon’s (R) second appointment to the state’s highest court.

Click here to learn about state supreme court vacancies in 2023. To read about the Tennessee vacancy, click here. To read about the Wyoming vacancy, click here.

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