Rep. Elise Stefanik becomes the 11th Republican U.S. House member to announce a gubernatorial bid for 2026

By

Briana Ryan

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) announced on Nov. 7, 2025, that she will run for governor of New York in 2026 rather than for another term in the U.S. House of Representatives.

As of Nov. 4, 2025, independent race forecasters The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections have rated the 2026 general election for the seat as Likely Democratic.

On her campaign, Stefanik wrote on X, “I am running for Governor to make New York affordable and safe FOR ALL. Democrats, Republicans, and Independents will unify to save our state.”

In 2014, Stefanik ran for her first term in the U.S. House in New York’s 21st Congressional District after then-incumbent Rep. Bill Owens (D) announced he would not seek re-election. In the general election, Stefanik defeated Aaron Woolf (D) 55% to 34%.

Stefanik won by a median of 18 percentage points in her five subsequent re-election bids, in which she ran with major party opposition. Her widest margin of victory (MOV) was in 2016, when she won by 35 percentage points. Her narrowest MOV was in 2018, when she won by 14 percentage points.

As of Nov. 4, 2025, The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections have rated the 2026 general election for the district as Solid Republican. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated it Safe Republican.

As of Nov. 7, 2025, Stefanik is one of 43 members of the U.S. Congress—eight U.S. Senate members and 35 U.S. House members—who have announced they will not seek re-election to their current seats in 2026.

Of the 35 representatives not seeking re-election:

  • Eleven—seven Democrats and three Republicans—are retiring from public office.
  • Twelve—six Democrats and six Republicans—are running for the U.S. Senate.
  • Eleven—all Republicans—are running for governor.
  • One Republican is running for state attorney general.

Compared to the last four election cycles, there were 25 retirement announcements at this point in 2024, 24 in 2022, 27 in 2020, and 31 in 2018.

Between January 2011 to November 2025, Ballotpedia followed 335 announcements from U.S. House members who announced they would not seek re-election. January had the highest number of members announcing they would not run for re-election at 57. The fewest announcements took place in June at 15.