How the Middle East is playing out in Congressional primaries

By

Ethan Sorell

Welcome to the Wednesday, June 12, Brew. 

By: Ethan Sorell

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. United Democracy Project leads outside groups who have positions on the Israel-Hamas War in congressional satellite spending
  2. Magistrate judge primary in Crisp County, Georgia, leads to runoff following a tied recount 
  3. Candidate filing deadlines scheduled for the next two weeks

United Democracy Project leads groups who have positions on the Israel-Hamas War in congressional satellite spending

Ballotpedia has tracked at least 10 congressional primaries where the candidates are taking opposing stances on the United States’ role in the war between Israel and Hamas. Let’s take a look at those races and the groups engaging in satellite spending in them.

American Israel Public Affairs Commission (AIPAC) and the United Democracy Project (UDP)

The American Israel Public Affairs Commission (AIPAC) is the largest pro-Israel lobbying group in the United States. While AIPAC has historically endorsed candidates who have supported Israel, it launched the United Democracy Project (UDP) in 2021, a super PAC which, according to its website, works to help elect candidates that “will be strong supporters of the U.S.-Israel relationship in Congress.” Compared to the 2022 election cycle, when the UDP raised $35.94 million, it has raised $50.91 million in the 2024 election cycle, according to its most recent Federal Election Commission Report from April 30, 2024.

While the UDP has contributed satellite spending to support congressional candidates in both major parties in 2024, The Guardian reported that the UDP has focused its satellite spending to “block Democratic candidates critical of Israel at the first hurdle – the primaries – in an effort to shore up the claim that there is unwavering support for the Jewish state across Congress. It is also targeting progressive Democratic members of Congress who have pressed for a ceasefire in Gaza.” 

According to Open Secrets, UDP has spent $22.7 million total in races for the U.S. House – $9.2 million supporting Democratic candidates, $10.5 million opposing Democratic candidates, and $3.0 million opposing Republican candidates. UDP has not contributed any money supporting Republican congressional candidates. 

UDP’s $22.7 million in independent expenditures is the sixth most of all PACs in the 2024 election cycle behind SFA Fund ($81.8 million), Make America Great Again Inc ($68.4 million), Americans for Prosperity ($64.6 million), Never Back Down Inc ($37.8 million), and Fairshake PAC ($33.2 million).

The UDP’s campaign ads and other materials have not solely focused on candidates’ stances on the United States’ role in the war between Israel and Hamas. UDP spokesperson Patrick Dorton told POLITICO in an email, “We run ads on the issues voters are most focused on. Where it makes sense, we will run ads on Israel this cycle, and we expect to do so in certain races going forward.”

As a part of our primary election coverage, Ballotpedia has tracked AIPAC and UDP involvement in Congressional primaries. As of June 6, 2024, UDP contributed satellite spending supporting or opposing candidates in 10 races:

  1. California’s 45th Congressional District election, 2024 (March 5 top-two primary), where UDP spent $4.6 million opposing Dave Min (D), who advanced from the primary;
  2. Texas’ 23rd Congressional District election, 2024 (March 5 Republican Primary) and the May 28 Republican primary runoff, where UDP has spent $1.1 million opposing Brandon Herrera (R), who advanced to the primary runoff and did not advance from the runoff;
  3. California’s 47th Congressional District election, 2024 (March 5 top-two primary), where UDP spent $104,538 supporting Joanna Weiss (D), who did not advance from the primary;
  4. Illinois’ 7th Congressional District election, (March 19 Democratic Primary), where UDP spent $488,067 opposing Kina Collins (D), who did not advance from the primary;
  5. Indiana’s 8th Congressional District election, 2024 (May 7 Republican primary), where UDP spent $1.6 million opposing John Hostettler (R), who did not advance from the primary; 
  6. Maryland’s 3rd Congressional District election, 2024 (May 14 Democratic primary), where UDP spent $4.2 million supporting Sarah Elfreth (D), who advanced from the primary;
  7. Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District election, 2024 (May 21 Republican primary), where UDP spent $319,783 supporting Thomas Massie (R), who advanced from the primary;
  8. Virginia’s 5th Congressional District election, 2024 (June 18 Republican primary), where UDP has spent $88,820 opposing incumbent U.S. Rep. Bob Good (R);
  9. New York’s 16th Congressional District election, 2024, (June 25 Democratic primary), where the UDP has spent $9.3 million–$5.4 million opposing Jamaal Bowman (D) and $3.9 million supporting George Lattimer (D);
  10. and Missouri’s 1st Congressional District election, 2024 (August 6 Democratic primary), where UDP has spent $1.1 million supporting Wesley Bell (D);

This means that the UDP contributed satellite spending supporting three candidates; two advanced to the general elections, and one was defeated in the primary. The UDP contributed satellite spending opposing four candidates, one of whom advanced to the general election and three of whom were defeated in the primary. Three of these primary races have yet to occur.

As a super PAC, UDP makes independent expenditures in races, while as a PAC, AIPAC can make campaign contributions. As of June 6, 2024, AIPAC led all PACs focused on U.S.-Israel relations in total campaign contributions with $7.9 million in the 2024 election cycle. The next four highest contributing PACs were the Republican Jewish Coalition ($3.1 million), JStreetPAC ($917,453), the Democratic Majority for Israel ($485,000), and NorPAC ($181,920). 

JStreet PAC and J Street Action Fund PAC

Compared to UDP, J Street Action Fund PAC, the super PAC affiliated with JStreetPAC, did not make any contributions to federal candidates in the 2024 election cycle. According to its website, “J Street organizes pro-Israel, pro-peace, pro-democracy Americans to promote U.S. policies that embody our deeply held Jewish and democratic values and that help secure the State of Israel as a democratic homeland for the Jewish people. We believe that only a negotiated resolution agreed to by Israelis and Palestinians can meet the legitimate needs and national aspirations of both peoples.”

Reject AIPAC

Over 20 groups opposing AIPAC and its policies formed a coalition called Reject AIPAC. According to its website, “Reject AIPAC is a broad coalition of progressive groups working together to take on the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and its affiliated dark money Super PACs across electoral, political, digital and organizing strategies. The coalition calls on candidates for federal office to take the Reject AIPAC Pledge to not take endorsements or contributions from AIPAC and/or aligned PACs.”

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Magistrate judge primary in Crisp County, Georgia, leads to runoff following a tied recount 

Ballotpedia is providing comprehensive election coverage on races up and down the ballot in 20 states this year as a part of our effort to gather information for all offices, big and small. Some of the smallest local elections can have the most unique outcomes. Today, let’s take a closer look at the primary runoff election for a magistrate judge seat in Crisp County, Georgia.

Republican voters in Crisp County, Georgia, will get a second shot to pick their nominee in the county’s chief magistrate judge race on June 18. George Holmes and Brandon Rivers, a current Crisp County magistrate, faced each other in a primary on May 21. Initial returns showed Holmes leading Rivers by one vote, enough to secure the nomination.

In Georgia, a losing candidate can request a recount if the final margin is within 0.5 percentage points. Rivers made that request, which revealed a scanning error. The final tally was a 943-943 tie. As a result, both candidates will advance to a primary runoff.

This race is one of 107 runoffs slated for June 18. For federal- to county-level offices, state law prohibits candidates from holding office unless they receive a majority vote. Typically, though, runoffs involve the top-two vote-getters from a field of three or more candidates.

The only way a runoff can happen in a two-person race is if that race ends in a tie since neither candidate secured the majority vote required under the law.

In Georgia, there are three federal district courts, a state supreme court, a state court of appeals, and trial courts with both general and limited jurisdiction. These courts serve different purposes.

As municipal court judges, the Crisp County magistrate judges serve incorporated municipalities and try ordinance violations, issue criminal warrants, conduct preliminary hearings, and hear misdemeanor shoplifting and possession of marijuana cases. There are more than 380 municipal court judges in the state.

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Candidate filing deadlines scheduled for the next two weeks

We are well into the 2024 election cycle, so it is a great time to take a look at important upcoming filing deadlines that candidates need to be aware of to run in their state’s elections. 

In order to get on the ballot, candidates must meet a variety of state-specific filing requirements and deadlines. These regulations, known as ballot access laws, determine whether and how candidates appear on an election ballot. These laws are set at the state level and apply to candidates running for state or federal offices.

Five states have upcoming candidate filing deadlines in the next two weeks. The map and bulleted list below show which states have candidate filing deadlines scheduled between June 12 and June 25, 2024. 

  1. Florida: June 14 (statewide filing deadline for all candidates for state senator, state representative, county office, and special districts).
  2. Illinois: June 24 (filing deadline for unaffiliated candidates, including presidential).
  3. New Hampshire: June 14 (statewide partisan filing deadline)
  4. Utah: June 15 (filing deadline for statewide unaffiliated candidates)
  5. Virginia: June 18 (filing deadline for statewide unaffiliated candidates)

Looking ahead

Stay tuned for more information about running for office in upcoming contests!

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