Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) announced on Sept. 2, 2025, that she will run for the U.S. Senate in Iowa in 2026 rather than another term in the U.S. House of Representatives.

The seat is open since incumbent Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) announced she would not seek re-election. As of Sept. 2, 2025, independent race forecasters The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have rated the general election for the seat as Likely Republican.

On her campaign, Hinson wrote on X, “President [Donald] Trump is restoring the American Dream but our work isn’t over yet. The Left will do anything and everything to resurrect their out-of-touch agenda and dismantle our progress. As Iowa’s next Senator, I will stop at nothing to Make America Great!”

In 2020, Hinson ran for her first term in the U.S. House in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District. In the general election, Hinson defeated incumbent Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D-Iowa) 51% to 49%. Hinson was one of 13 Republican challengers to defeat a Democratic incumbent in a general election that year.

In her two subsequent re-election bids, Hinson ran in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District due to redistricting. Hinson won by eight percentage points in 2022 and 15 percentage points in 2024.

As of Sept. 2, 2025, independent race forecasters Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have rated the 2026 general election for the district Likely Republican. The Cook Political Report rated it Solid Republican.

As of Sept. 2, 2025, Hinson is one of 33 members of the U.S. Congress—eight U.S. Senate members and 25 U.S. House members—who have announced they will not seek re-election to their current seats in 2026.

Of the 25 representatives not seeking re-election:

• Six—five Democrats and one Republican—are retiring from public office.
• Ten—five Democrats and five Republicans—are running for the U.S. Senate.
• Eight—all Republicans—are running for governor.
• One Republican is running for state attorney general.

Compared to the last four election cycles, there were 15 retirement announcements at this point in 2024, 19 in 2022, 21 in 2020, and 21 in 2018.

Between January 2011 to September 2025, Ballotpedia followed 327 announcements from U.S. House members who announced they would not seek re-election. January had the highest number of members announcing they would not run for re-election at 57. The fewest announcements took place in June at 15.