Author: Nathan Maxwell
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Share of incumbents in contested primaries above average in 2026, but less than previous midterm
In 2026, there were 1,156 state legislative incumbents in contested primaries, representing 23% of all incumbents who filed for re-election. That tied 2012 for the second-highest percentage of contested incumbents since 2010, next to 2022 at 27%. Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of incumbents in contested primaries to help determine the overall competitiveness of…
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Contested state legislative primaries down 15% from previous midterm cycle
There were 1,994 contested state legislative primaries in 2026. That was 18% of the 11,164 possible primaries across the 46 states with state legislative elections this year. The total number of contested primaries in 2026—1,994—was 340 fewer and a 15% decrease from the previous midterm cycle in 2022. Democrats had 876 primaries, representing 16% of…
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Newcomers are guaranteed 17% of this year's state legislative races
There are 1,064 open seats in this year’s state legislative elections, 17% of all 6,137 seats up for election. That is below the average of 19% in each cycle since 2010. Looking only at previous midterm election years since 2010, that average was 20%. An open seat is where no incumbent filed to run, meaning…
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Open general election contest for Indiana Secretary of State after Republican incumbent defeated at convention
Beau Bayh (D), Max Engling (R), Greg Ballard (I), and Lauri Shillings (L) are running for Indiana Secretary of State in the November 3, 2026, general election. Bayh, Engling, and Ballard lead in media attention and fundraising. Republicans have controlled the secretary's office since 1994. Incumbent Diego Morales (R) lost to Engling at the June…
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Brent Taylor won the Republican primary for Tennessee's redrawn 9th Congressional District
Brent Taylor defeated Charlotte Bergmann, Jeremy Thompson, and Todd Warner in the Republican primary for U.S. House of Representatives in Tennessee's 9th Congressional District on August 6, 2026. The Tennessee Legislature redrew the majority-minority Memphis district in a May 2026 special session called by Gov. Bill Lee (R) following the U.S. Supreme Court decision in…
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Jocelyn Benson (D) won the Democratic gubernatorial primary in Michigan
Jocelyn Benson defeated Chris Swanson in the Democratic primary for Governor of Michigan on August 4, 2026. Incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) was term-limited, leaving the office open in 2026. Michigan has a divided government, meaning neither party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office, which is called a state government…
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Elaine Luria's (D) primary victory sets up general election rematch in Virginia's 2nd Congressional District
Elaine Luria defeated Nila Devanath, Bill Fleming, and Patrick Mosolf in the Democratic primary for Virginia's 2nd Congressional District on August 4, 2026. Luria and Devanath led in fundraising and media attention ahead of the election. Luria will face incumbent Jennifer Kiggans (R) in the general election. Luria represented the district from 2019 to 2023.…
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Below average number of open state legislative seats in Hawaii in 2026
Four seats are open in Hawaii’s state legislative elections this year, meaning no incumbents filed. That is the second-fewest since 2010, above only 2016 which had three. Newcomers are guaranteed 5% of the legislature next year. Twenty-three incumbents face primary contests in Hawaii’s state legislative elections this year, matching the average since 2010 and up…
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Primaries and incumbent contests down in New Hampshire this year—record lows since 2010
In 2026, 25% of the state legislative incumbents running for election in New Hampshire will face primary contests, a record low since 2010. In total, 77 incumbents face contested primaries across the New Hampshire House and Senate. The average number of incumbents contested each year from 2010 to 2024 was 111. Sixteen of the contested…
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Two states have veto-proof majorities opposite their governor's party — that could change this year
Heading into the 2026 elections, there are two states with a governor of one party and a veto-proof state legislative majority of the opposing party: Kansas and Kentucky. At least one legislative chamber is up for election this year in both states, meaning their veto-proof majority status could change. Voters in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina,…