So far this year, 12 state legislative incumbents — one Democrat and 11 Republicans — have lost to primary challengers. Across the four states that have held primaries, 2.6% of incumbents running for re-election have lost, which is less than at this point in 2022 (3.6%). These totals include data from elections in both legislative…
Primaries for state legislative incumbents in states with trifectas have become more competitive since 2016. A trifecta happens when one political party holds the governorship and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. In 2016, the percentage of state legislative incumbents facing a primary challenger was 20.6%. In 2018, it was 21.9%, and in…