2.5% of state legislative incumbents who ran for re-election have lost in primaries


So far this year, 25 state legislative incumbents — eight Democrats and 17 Republicans — have lost to primary challengers. Click here to read our previous report. 

Across the eight states that have held primaries, 2.5% of incumbents running for re-election have lost, which is less than at this point in 2022 (4.1%).

Republican incumbents have lost at a higher rate than Democrats. Of the 563 Republican incumbents who ran for re-election, 17 (3.0%) have lost to primary challengers. For Democrats, eight of the 447 who ran for re-election (1.8%) have lost.

Indiana held the most recent state legislative primary elections on May 7.

Twenty-two House incumbents — 19 Republicans and three Democrats — faced primary challengers. As of this writing, two incumbents lost their primaries: Ragen Hatcher (D-3) and Sharon Negele (R-13).

Seven Senate incumbents — five Republicans and two Democrats — faced primary challengers. One incumbent lost their primary: David Vinzant (D-3).

This was the first time in a decade that a Democratic incumbent lost in a primary.

In addition to the three incumbents defeated in primary elections, nine incumbents — one Democrat and eight Republicans — did not seek re-election, meaning at least 8% of the legislature will be represented by newcomers next year.

Heading into the election, Republicans had a 70-30 majority in the House and a 40-10 majority in the Senate. Thirty-four Democratic incumbents and 79 Republican incumbents are slated to appear on general election ballots in November.

Of the eight states that have held primaries so far, two have Democratic trifectas, four have Republican trifectas, and two have a divided government.