Category2024 elections

Tim Scott, Ron DeSantis join Republican primary field

Two new noteworthy candidates announced 2024 presidential campaigns in the past week. Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) announced on May 22, 2023, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) announced on May 24. There are now three noteworthy Democrats and eight noteworthy Republicans running for president.

Below is a summary of each candidate’s campaign activity from May 19 to May 26.

Joe Biden (D) spoke about firearms policy at a memorial for the Uvalde, Texas, school shooting in Washington, D.C., on May 24. That day, Biden also released an online ad criticizing DeSantis.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (D) spoke at the Bitcoin 2023 conference on May 19.

Marianne Williamson(D) released the text of her economic policy, titled “An Economic Bill of Rights: A Vision for a Moral Economy,” on May 23. Williamson’s campaign manager, Peter Daou, and deputy campaign manager, Jason Call, resigned from her campaign on May 20 and May 19, respectively.

Ron DeSantis (R) announced his presidential candidacy on May 24 in a live-streamed conversation with Elon Musk and David Sacks on Twitter.

Larry Elder (R) published an op-ed in The Washington Times titled “President Biden at Howard University: The great White savior” on May 22.

Nikki Haley (R) campaigned in Iowa on May 19 and in New Hampshire on May 23 and May 24, respectively. Haley wrote an op-ed for Seacoastonline titled “Nikki Haley: Force Congress to fix veterans’ healthcare” on May 24.

Asa Hutchinson (R) campaigned in South Carolina from May 22 to May 23.

Vivek Ramaswamy (R) held campaign events in Chicago, Illinois, on May 19 and Iowa on May 26. He also spoke at the Bitcoin 2023 conference on May 20.

Tim Scott (R) announced his presidential campaign on May 22 at a rally in North Charleston, South Carolina. On May 23, Scott began a $5.5 million ad campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire. Scott campaigned in Iowa on May 24 and New Hampshire on May 25.

Donald Trump (R) was endorsed by Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey (R) on May 22. Trump released an online ad on May 24 criticizing DeSantis.

We did not identify any specific campaign activity from Corey Stapleton (R) during this time frame.

At this point in the 2020 cycle, 26 noteworthy candidates were running for president. Twenty-four were seeking the Democratic nomination, and two (Trump and former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld) were seeking the Republican nomination.

Notable stories at the time included eight Democratic presidential candidates appearing at demonstrations opposing anti-abortion laws in Alabama and Georgia on May 21, 2019, and reporting that said Trump had spent $5 million on Facebook ads targeting older Americans and women from January to May 2019. 

In the 2016 election, eight noteworthy candidates had announced their campaigns as of May 26, 2015. There were two Democrats (Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders) and five Republicans.

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Trump leads 2024 Republican presidential primary polling and PredictIt market

Image of the south facade of the White House.

As of May 23, 2023, former President Donald Trump (R) leads in both RealClearPolitics’ (RCP) Republican presidential primary polling average and PredictIt’s Republican presidential primary market.

Trump’s polling average currently stands at 56%, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at 19%. No other candidate has more than a 10% polling average. In PredictIt’s Republican primary market, Trump’s share price is $0.57, and DeSantis’ share price is $0.34. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. 

A candidate’s polling average reflects an estimate of the vote share a candidate would receive if the election took place today. In contrast, a PredictIt share price roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of a candidate winning the election.

President Joe Biden (D) leads both RCP’s Democratic primary polling average and PredictIt’s Democratic primary market. Biden has a 35% polling average, with no other candidates polling at or above 10%, and a $0.73 PredictIt share price. One other candidate, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), has a share price at or above $0.10. Newsom stands at $0.12.

Trump and Biden are the only candidates of this group to have officially announced their presidential campaigns.

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40 candidates filed for federal and statewide offices last week

40 people declared candidacies for federal or statewide offices in the past week, two fewer than last week. All of these candidates declared before their state’s official filing deadline.

Twenty-two of those candidates were Democratic, while 18 were Republican.

Twenty-eight candidates are running for Congress, four for governorship, and eight for a lower state executive office. 

Since the beginning of the year, Ballotpedia has identified 912 declared candidates for federal and statewide offices. At this time in 2021, Ballotpedia had identified 1,794 declared candidates for 2022, 2023, and 2024 races.

An official candidate is someone who registers with a federal or state campaign finance agency before the candidate filing deadline or appears on candidate lists released by government election agencies. A declared candidate is someone who has not completed the steps to become an official candidate but who might have done one or more of the following:

  • Appeared in candidate forums or debates
  • Published a campaign website
  • Published campaign social media pages
  • Advertised online, on television, or through print
  • Issued press releases
  • Interviewed with media publications

For more on Ballotpedia’s definition of candidacy, click here.



Childcare facilities could receive property tax exemption under a proposed Texas amendment

The Texas Legislature voted to send a constitutional amendment to the Nov. 2023 ballot that would allow counties or municipalities to authorize an exemption from property taxes on all or part of the appraised value of real property used to operate childcare facilities. A partial property tax exemption would need to equal at least 50% of the appraised value.

This amendment was introduced as Senate Joint Resolution 64 on March 9, 2023. On May 3, 2023, the state Senate passed SJR 64 by a vote of 25-6. On May 19, the state House passed SJR 64 by a vote of 114-31 with four not voting. Democratic Rep. Terry Canales joined 36 Republican legislators in voting against the amendment.

The Texas Health and Human Services Commission reported that Texas had lost nearly a quarter of its child-care providers between March 2020 and September 2021.

State Sen. Royce West (D-23) authored the amendment. The Texas Restaurant Association and Methodist Healthcare Ministries registered in support of the amendment during legislative hearings. No organizations registered in opposition to the measure.

The Missouri Legislature also voted to send a similar amendment to voters there, allowing childcare establishments to be exempt from property taxes. Missouri voters will decide on that amendment in Nov. 2024.

Taxes are the most common topic of constitutional amendments in Texas. Between 1995 and 2022, voters decided on 41 tax-related measures out of 179 proposed.

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Democratic Party committees lead Republican Party committees in fundraising for the 2024 election cycle

Image of donkey and elephant to symbolize the Democratic and Republican parties.

The three committees associated with the Democratic Party have raised a cumulative $106 million for the 2024 election cycle, while the three committees associated with the Republican Party have raised $84 million. Those figures are as of April 30, 2023, the most recent party committee campaign finance filing deadline. 

The three Democratic committees are the Democratic National Committee (DNC), the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). The three Republican committees are the Republican National Committee (RNC), National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), and National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).

So far in the 2024 election cycle, the DNC, DSCC, and DCCC each lead their Republican counterparts in cumulative receipts and disbursements. See the table below for exact figures.

Compared to previous cycles, the Democratic committees’ cumulative receipts this past April ($106 million) outpace their receipts at this point in the 2020 election cycle ($86 million), but are lower than their receipts at this point in the 2022 election cycle ($139 million). On the Republican side, the three committees raised $84 million as of last month, which is lower than their April 2019 fundraising total ($116 million) and their April 2021 fundraising total ($133 million).

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Minnesota voters to decide on extending lottery revenue dedication for Environment and Natural Resource Fund through 2050

Voters in Minnesota will be asked to keep providing revenue from state-operated lotteries to the Environment and Natural Resources Fund through 2050. The dedicated revenue source is set to expire at the end of 2024.

The constitutional amendment will appear on the ballot at the general election on Nov. 5, 2024. It’s the first measure certified for the statewide ballot in Minnesota since 2016.

In 1988, more than 80% of voters approved a constitutional amendment to create the Minnesota Environment and Natural Resources Fund. The amendment did not include a dedicated source of revenue. Also in 1988, voters approved an amendment to allow for state-operated lotteries. In 1990, the Legislature asked voters to dedicate at least 40% of revenue from state-operated lotteries to the Environment and Natural Resources Fund until 2001. The amendment was approved. In 1998, voters approved an extension, requiring the revenue dedication until 2025.

In 2024, voters will decide whether to continue dedicating revenue from state-operated lotteries to the fund through 2050. The ballot measure would also increase the amount of money that can be spent from the fund each year from 5.5% to 7.0% of the fund’s market value. The legislation that placed the constitutional change on the ballot also included changes to Minnesota Statutes. One of these changes would create a grant program to provide funding for projects related to addressing environmental issues in affected communities, environmental education, and natural resource conservation. An advisory board would make recommendations about grants, and the commissioner of natural resources would award the grants.

In the Legislature, the final version of the ballot measure was approved on May 21, 2023. In the Senate, the vote was 36-29. In the House, the vote was 89-41. Legislative Democrats supported the amendment. Legislative Republicans voted 2-29 in the Senate and 20-41 in the House.

Organizations that supported the amendment in the Legislature include the American Sportfishing Association, Association of Minnesota Counties, Ducks Unlimited, League of Women Voters, and The Nature Conservancy, among others. Their statement said, “We believe that Minnesotans deserve the opportunity to vote to renew the constitutional dedication of lottery proceeds to the ENRTF while dedicating additional lottery proceeds to the environment and reducing barriers for local organizations and communities to receive funding.”

Sen. Steve Drazkowski (R-20), who voted against the amendment in the Legislature, disagreed with how the new grants would be issued, saying, “So what we are doing is we are doing it again, we are doing what we have done in this Legislature for the last four months. Again, taking authority for appropriation from the legislative branch, and giving it to the executive branch, that’s what this bill is doing.”

Since 1996, voters have decided on 10 constitutional amendments in Minnesota. Eight of those amendments were approved, and two were defeated. In Minnesota, a constitutional amendment must receive a simple majority of all ballots cast in the election, rather than a simple majority of votes on the amendment itself.



Biden leads PredictIt’s 2024 presidential election market

Photo of the White House in Washington, D.C.

As of May 15, 2023, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows President Joe Biden (D) leading at $0.42, followed by former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.34, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.19. Biden has held the lead in this market since Jan. 22, 2023. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.

Trump and Biden are the only candidates of this group to have officially announced their presidential campaigns.

The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading at $0.74. One other candidate, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), has a share price at or above $0.10. Newsom stands at $0.13.

Trump leads the Republican presidential primary market at $0.57. He’s led this market since March 24, 2023. Trump is followed by DeSantis, who stands at $0.30. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. 

PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. 

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President Joe Biden issues first endorsement in the 2023 cycle

Photo of the White House in Washington, D.C.

President Joe Biden (D) endorsed Heather Boyd (D) in a special state legislative election in Pennsylvania on May 15, his first endorsement in the 2023 election cycle.

Boyd is running against Katie Ford (R) and Alfe Goodwin (L) to fill a vacancy left in House District 163 following state Rep. Michael Zabel’s (D) resignation on May 16.

The District 163 race is one of two special elections on May 16. The other, in House District 108, is to fill the vacancy left following former Rep. Lynda Culver’s (R) resignation to join the state Senate.

These special elections will determine which party controls the Pennsylvania House. If Democrats win at least one race, they will retain their majority. Republicans need to win both races to gain control of the chamber.

According to CNalysis, during the 2020 presidential election, Biden received 62% of the vote in what is now District 163. Former President Donald Trump (R) received 65% of the vote in what is now District 108.

While this is his first in 2023, Biden issued 12 endorsements in 2022, three in primaries and nine in general elections. Of his three primary endorsees, two won (67%), and of the nine general election endorsees, eight won (89%). 

Biden’s general election win rate of 89% in 2022 was his highest since Ballotpedia began collecting endorsement data in 2016.

With fewer races on the ballot in odd-numbered years, Biden tends to endorse fewer candidates, making 10 endorsements in 2017 but only two in 2019 and 2021.

Biden issued his most endorsements in 2018, with 129 in that year’s general elections, 83 (64%) of whom won.

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Trump leads PredictIt’s 2024 Republican presidential primary market

As of May 8, 2023, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows President Joe Biden (D) leading at $0.49, followed by former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.32, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.16. Biden has held the lead in this market since Jan. 22, 2023. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.

Trump and Biden are the only candidates of this group to have officially announced their presidential campaigns.

The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading at $0.75. One other candidate, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), has a share price at or above $0.10. Newsom stands at $0.13.

Trump leads the Republican presidential primary market at $0.61. He’s led this market since March 24, 2023. Trump is followed by DeSantis, who stands at $0.28. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. 

PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. 

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Trump maintains lead in PredictIt’s 2024 Republican presidential primary market

PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows President Joe Biden (D) leading at $0.50 as of May 1, 2023, followed by former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.29, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.15. Biden has held the lead in this market since Jan. 22, 2023. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.

Trump and Biden are the only candidates of this group to have officially announced their presidential campaigns.

The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading at $0.76. One other candidate, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), has a share price at or above $0.10. Newsom stands at $0.13.

Trump leads the Republican presidential primary market at $0.56. He’s led this market since March 24, 2023. Trump is followed by DeSantis, who stands at $0.28. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. 

PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. 

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