The Daily Brew: Checking in on the PredictIt presidential race market

Today’s Brew highlights the prices for the presidential nominees on PredictIt as of yesterday + summarizes mid-year fundraising by each party’s campaign committees  
The Daily Brew

Welcome to the Thursday, July 25, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. Trump (R), Harris (D) lead PredictIt markets for their respective party’s presidential nomination
  2. Republican and Democratic national party committees have raised over $300 million through June
  3. Know students interested in interning with us? Let’s connect!

Trump (R), Harris (D) lead PredictIt markets for their respective party’s presidential nomination

Kamala Harris led the Democratic primary for president as of yesterday afternoon according to PredictIt, an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Last election cycle we partnered with PredictIt to share their information with our readers. Throughout the 2020 cycle, we’re bringing Ballotpedia readers periodic updates on what we’re learning from PredictIt.

Ballotpedia is tracking PredictIt markets relating to the 2020 presidential election, including the general election and Democratic and Republican primaries. Here’s a crash course in how PredictIt’s market works:

  • PredictIt has established markets that correspond to real-world events, such as elections.

  • Investors can buy shares in those markets reflecting a particular outcome, such as whether a candidate will win an election. 

  • The price of a share in each contract rises and falls based on market demand.

  • An investor makes money if more and more people also believe that the same outcome will occur, causing the price of the shares he or she owns to increase. 

  • In election markets, the higher the current price of the contract that corresponds to a particular candidate, the more likely the market believes that candidate will win.

Services such as PredictIt are also being used to gain insight into trends over the lifetime of an election and the event’s probable outcome. 

In the Democratic primary market, only five candidates were priced at 10 cents or more as of July 24—Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Biden, Sanders, and Pete Buttigieg. As of the same time, Donald Trump was priced at 89 cents per contract. Here is a screenshot of the pricing for the Democratic presidential nominee market as of yesterday afternoon:

Predict It Widget 

PredictIt has also created markets to allow people to invest in which candidate will win the Democratic caucus or primary in four early presidential contests—Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. As of yesterday afternoon, Bernie Sanders was the favorite to win the New Hampshire primary and Joe Biden was the leading candidate in the other three states.

Click the link below for an overview of the PredictIt markets relating to the 2020 presidential election, including the general election, Democratic primary, and Republican primary.

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Checks and Balances


Republican and Democratic national party committees have raised over $300 million through June  

The Republican National Committee (RNC) outraised the Democratic National Committee (DNC) by more than 2-to-1 for the third straight month, according to July filings with the Federal Election Commission. Republicans led in national and Senatorial committee fundraising while Democrats led in House committee fundraising.

Democrats and Republicans each have three major party committees—a national committee, one dedicated to U.S. Senate elections, and one dedicated to U.S. House elections. National party committees plan their presidential nominating conventions, promote the party’s platform, and raise funds to support candidates for all offices. Each party’s Senate and House campaign committees are dedicated to electing members to their respective bodies through recruiting candidates and providing campaign and financial support.  

The table below shows each committee’s receipts, disbursements, cash on hand, and debts owed through the end of June 2019: 

Party fundraising 

These six committees have raised a combined $310.1 million from January 1 to June 30 for the 2020 election cycle. The three Republican committees raised $176.3 million and the Democratic ones have raised $133.8 million.

Know students interested in interning with us? Let’s connect!

Are you a college or university professor with undergraduate or graduate students passionate about politics, communications, or technology? If so, we want to connect with them for our Fall 2019 internship program.

Our interns assist in a variety of duties on our Editorial, Communications, Tech, or Outreach teams. They’ll learn how to publish content on Ballotpedia, learn about all we do to prevent and detect bias in our resources, and work alongside current staff members.

All interns are paid and work remotely and Ballotpedia is also happy to facilitate credit for internship experience. Our Fall 2019 internship program will run from Monday, August 26 through Friday, December 13. Interns will work approximately 20 hours per week depending on their availability.  

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About the author

Dave Beaudoin

Dave Beaudoin is a project director at Ballotpedia and can be reached at dave.beaudoin@ballotpedia.org

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