Trump (R), Harris (D) lead PredictIt markets for their respective party’s presidential nomination
Kamala Harris led the Democratic primary for president as of yesterday afternoon according to PredictIt, an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Last election cycle we partnered with PredictIt to share their information with our readers. Throughout the 2020 cycle, we’re bringing Ballotpedia readers periodic updates on what we’re learning from PredictIt.
Ballotpedia is tracking PredictIt markets relating to the 2020 presidential election, including the general election and Democratic and Republican primaries. Here’s a crash course in how PredictIt’s market works:
PredictIt has established markets that correspond to real-world events, such as elections.
Investors can buy shares in those markets reflecting a particular outcome, such as whether a candidate will win an election.
The price of a share in each contract rises and falls based on market demand.
An investor makes money if more and more people also believe that the same outcome will occur, causing the price of the shares he or she owns to increase.
In election markets, the higher the current price of the contract that corresponds to a particular candidate, the more likely the market believes that candidate will win.
Services such as PredictIt are also being used to gain insight into trends over the lifetime of an election and the event’s probable outcome.
In the Democratic primary market, only five candidates were priced at 10 cents or more as of July 24—Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Biden, Sanders, and Pete Buttigieg. As of the same time, Donald Trump was priced at 89 cents per contract. Here is a screenshot of the pricing for the Democratic presidential nominee market as of yesterday afternoon:
PredictIt has also created markets to allow people to invest in which candidate will win the Democratic caucus or primary in four early presidential contests—Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. As of yesterday afternoon, Bernie Sanders was the favorite to win the New Hampshire primary and Joe Biden was the leading candidate in the other three states.
Click the link below for an overview of the PredictIt markets relating to the 2020 presidential election, including the general election, Democratic primary, and Republican primary.