Here’s what we know so far

Welcome to the Wednesday, Nov. 4, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. Where elections stand
  2. Don’t miss today’s elections results webinar

Where elections stand

Good morning. For some of us, it was a late night. For others, a very early morning. Either way, the sun came up, we got our kids ready for the day, and now it is time for some election results. Regardless of how you are beginning your day (or, maybe ending it), we hope we can be here to help you make sense of the state of election results.

All results in this email are as of 5:30 a.m. EST.

In states across the country, results continue to be tabulated. Here are a few quick links before we jump into the results.

  • For a rundown of the official results certification dates, see this article
  • For updates throughout the day today, visit our results hub page at Ballotpedia.org
  • Stay tuned for our next email update later this morning via our Help Desk newsletter. 
  • As a reminder, for details about how recounts and challenges work, check out the information we have compiled on our Election Help Desk.
  • Click here to learn how we decide to call an election. 

Now, let’s get into the projected results. 

Who won the presidency?

Media outlets have not projected a definitive winner. Neither candidate has conceded, with both candidates expressing confidence that the results lean in their favor.

President Donald Trump (R) had won states totaling 213 electoral votes to Joe Biden’s (D) 220. Ten states remained uncalled, according to Ballotpedia’s election calling policy. Both candidates spoke to their supporters in the early morning hours. For the latest updates, follow along with us here.

Who controls the U.S. Senate?

Control of the U.S. Senate as a result of the 2020 elections had not been determined.  Elections in seven states remained too close to call.

Races had been called by five media outlets for 11 Democrats and 17 Republicans. Two seats switched parties: Tommy Tuberville (R) won Doug Jones’ (D) seat in Alabama, and John Hickenlooper (D) won Cory Gardner’s (R) seat in Colorado.

The seven states that have not been called yet are Georgia (both regular and special elections), Arizona, Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, and Michigan.

Thirty-five of 100 U.S. Senate seats were up for election. Heading into the election, Democrats held 12 of those seats and Republicans held 23.

Who controls the House of Representatives?

Media outlets project the Democratic Party to maintain control of the U.S. House. The partisan composition of the House of Representatives before the elections was 232 Democrats, 197 Republicans, one Libertarian, and five vacancies. Here are a few of the seats that have flipped so far:

  • MN-07: Michelle Fischbach (R) won Collin Peterson’s (D) seat
  • NC-02: Deborah Ross (D) won George Holding’s (R) seat
  • NC-06: Kathy Manning (D) won Joseph Haywood’s (R) seat
  • OK-05: Stephanie Bice (R) won Kendra Horn’s (D) seat

What is the status of trifectas?

The pre-election trifecta count is 36 (21 for Republicans and 15 for Democrats) with 14 states having divided governments.

While final control of most state legislative chambers is too early to call, if we assume that no state legislative chambers flipped outside those we identified as battlegrounds, we can project that Republicans have likely gained a trifecta in Montana. Greg Gianforte’s (R) election as the state’s first Republican governor since 2004 brings an end to 15 years of divided government, assuming Republicans maintain their state legislative majorities. Democrats held their trifectas in Colorado and Delaware, while Republicans held their trifecta in Arkansas. Kentucky, Massachusetts, and North Carolina remained under divided government. 

Democrats did not pick up a trifecta in Vermont, where Gov. Phil Scott (R) won re-election. Similarly, Republicans missed a chance to pick up a trifecta in North Carolina with the re-election of Roy Cooper (D).

State executives

Eleven states held elections for governor. Seven of the elections were in states with a Republican governor and four were in states with a Democratic governor. As of 2:30 a.m. ET, 11 races had been decided. Incumbents won nine of the 11 races. Heading into the 2020 elections, 26 states had a Republican governor and 24 had a Democratic governor.    

Montana governor

Greg Gianforte (R) defeated Mike Cooney (D), Robert Barb (G), and Lyman Bishop (L) to win election as governor of Montana, becoming the first Republican elected to the office since 2000. Gianforte is the state’s current representative in the U.S. House, while Cooney is the current lieutenant governor. 

North Carolina governor

Incumbent Roy Cooper (D) defeated Dan Forest (R), Al Pisano (C), and Steven DiFiore II (L) in the election for governor in North Carolina. Cooper was elected in 2016 after defeating incumbent Pat McCrory (R) 49.0% to 48.8%. Forest, the state’s lieutenant governor, was first elected in 2012 and was re-elected in 2016 with 52% of the vote to Democrat Linda Coleman’s 45%.

What are the notable ballot measure results?

California Proposition 22 (App-Based Drivers as Contractors and Labor Policies Initiative)

California voters approved Proposition 22, which defines app-based transportation (rideshare) and delivery drivers as independent contractors and adopts labor and wage policies specific to app-based drivers and companies. The vote was 58% to 42%. Prop 22 overrides Assembly Bill 5 (AB 5), which was signed into law by Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2019, on the question of whether app-based drivers are employees or independent contractors. AB 5 created the presumption that a worker is an employee, rather than an independent contractor, unless the hiring business can prove otherwise. 

Colorado Proposition 118 (Paid Medical and Family Leave Initiative)

Colorado voters approved Proposition 118 in a vote of 57% to 43%. The measure establishes a paid family and medical leave program in Colorado to provide 12 weeks (up to 16 weeks in certain cases) of paid leave funded through a payroll tax to be paid for by employers and employees in a 50/50 split. While eight other states have paid leave programs similar to this and several states have voted on paid sick leave requirements for employers, this was the first time voters weighed in on a state-run paid sick leave program through a statewide ballot measure.

Mississippi Ballot Measure 3 (State Flag Referendum)

Mississippi voters approved Measure 3 to adopt a new official state flag 70% to 30%. The new flag, as designed by the Commission to Redesign the Mississippi State Flag, may not contain the Confederate Battle Flag and must include the words “In God We Trust.”

New Jersey Question 1 (Marijuana Legalization Amendment)

New Jersey voters approved a constitutional amendment, Question 1, to legalize marijuana. New Jersey is the first Mid-Atlantic state to legalize marijuana. As of 11:45 PM EST, Question 1 led with 67.3% of the vote.

Oregon Measure 109 (Psilocybin Mushroom Services Program Initiative)

Oregon voters approved Measure 109 in a vote of 56% to 44% according to unofficial election night results. It will permit licensed service providers to administer psilocybin-producing mushroom and fungi products to individuals 21 years of age or older.

What happened in state supreme court elections?

Thirty-five states held state supreme court elections this year. In total, 78 of the nation’s 344 state supreme court seats are up for election. At 23%, this is the greatest number of seats up for election in recent years.

Illinois

Thomas Kilbride (D) conceded defeat in his retention election in Illinois. Before the 2020 election, the Illinois Supreme Court consisted of four Democratic and three Republican justices. The final results will not be verified until all of the votes are counted, but if Kilbride is not retained, he will be the first state supreme court justice in Illinois history not to be retained. 

Don’t miss today’s election results webinar

Our first webinar of the week is today—Nov. 4—at 3:00 p.m. Eastern. Marquee Editor Cory Eucalitto and I will walk you through the notable election results, the races that are too close to call, and what’s next in this presidential election cycle.

Click here to register and secure your spot! All registrants will receive a copy of the briefing the following day.




About the author

Dave Beaudoin

Dave Beaudoin is a project director at Ballotpedia. Contact us at editor@ballotpedia.org.

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