The Daily Brew: 2020 population estimates compared to 2010

Welcome to the Wednesday, March 24, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. Looking at 2020 population estimates compared to 2010
  2. Four more House incumbents not seeking re-election
  3. Indiana governor appoints secretary of state

Looking at 2020 population estimates compared to 2010

You may have heard that results from the 2020 census have been delayed due to the coronavirus pandemic’s effects on data collection last year. I want to give an update on where things stand, along with some population estimates the Census Bureau released last December. 

First, a bit of background: Article I, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution mandates a census be conducted every 10 years. The 2020 census was the 24th conducted—there’s been a census every decade since 1790.

Census data is used to determine how many members of the U.S. House each state has (also known as congressional apportionment). States also use census data for redistricting.

The Bureau was originally scheduled to deliver apportionment counts to the president by Dec. 31 of last year and redistricting data to the states by March 30 of this year. On Jan. 27, Census Bureau Chief of Decennial Communications and Stakeholder Relations Kathleen Styles said the Bureau plans to deliver its final apportionment report by April 30. The Bureau later said it would deliver redistricting data to the states by Sept. 30

For now, we can look at population estimates for July 1, 2020. The Bureau released that data in December. The Bureau releases annual estimates, in addition to the decennial census. The map below shows changes between 2010 census counts and 2020 population estimates in each state.

Washington, D.C. (not shown above) had the highest estimated gain in population between 2010 and 2020 at 18.46%. The five states with the highest estimated gains were:

  • Utah: 17.58%
  • Texas: 16.76%
  • Idaho: 16.54%
  • Nevada: 16.21%
  • Arizona: 16.10%

The Bureau estimated that six states lost population:

  • West Virginia: -3.68%
  • Illinois: -1.89%
  • Connecticut: -0.48%
  • Vermont: -0.38%
  • New York: -0.21%
  • Mississippi: -0.02%

According to Roll Call, the Census Bureau’s estimates would result in Texas gaining up to three U.S. House seats, Florida could gain two, and Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon could gain one each. New York could lose two U.S. House seats and the following eight states could lose one seat each—California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia.

Ten states lost seats and eight states gained seats in the House following the 2010 census. Click below to see which ones and for more information on the 2020 Census.

Read on

Four more House incumbents not seeking re-election

Last week, we reported that Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.) was the first House member to announce a 2022 retirement. Within the past few days, four more members have announced they won’t seek re-election next year. That includes two announced retirements and two representatives planning to run for other offices.

The following House members announced retirements:

  • Tom Reed (R-N.Y.)
  • Filemon Vela (D-Texas) 

And the following announced candidacies for other offices:

  • Mo Brooks (R-Ala.), running for U.S. Senate
  • Jody Hice (R-Ga.), running for secretary of state

By the end of March 2019, three incumbents announced they would retire in 2020. Six incumbents had done so by the end of March 2017 in the 2018 cycle. 

In 2020, 36 House members did not seek re-election—26 Republicans, nine Democrats, and one Libertarian. In 2018, 52 members—34 Republicans and 18 Democrats—didn’t run for re-election.

You might remember the chart below from last week, showing how many representatives had announced they weren’t seeking re-election by the number of months away from the general election. We updated our March 2021 figure (20 months away from the 2022 election) below.

Read on 

Indiana governor appoints secretary of state

Indiana Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) appointed Holli Sullivan (R) secretary of state on Feb. 16. Sullivan succeeds Connie Lawson (R), who announced earlier this year that she would resign for health and family reasons. Sullivan will serve until the office’s next scheduled election in November 2022. 

Lawson’s tenure of nine years is the second-longest in the history of the office. Indiana’s first secretary of state, Robert New, served for nine years and one month from 1816 to 1825. Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) appointed Lawson in March 2012 to fill the vacancy created when Charlie White (R) resigned. Lawson was elected to the position in 2014 and 2018.

Sullivan served in the Indiana House of Representatives from 2014 until her recent appointment. She was originally appointed to the state House after Gov. Mike Pence (R) appointed the district’s previous representative, Suzanne Crouch (R), as state auditor. Sullivan was subsequently elected to the legislature four times. 

When a vacancy occurs in the Indiana General Assembly, the party that last held the seat must appoint a replacement, with the approval of the state party chair. The 78th District Republican precinct committeemen will select Sullivan’s successor.

The office of secretary of state exists in 47 states. It does not exist in Alaska, Hawaii, and Utah. Voters elect the secretary of state in 35 states. The governor or state legislature appoints the secretary of state in 12 states. There are currently 25 Republican, 20 Democratic, and one independent secretaries of state. Pennsylvania’s acting secretary—Veronica Degraffenreid—is not affiliated with either party. Gov. Tom Wolf (D) appointed Degraffenreid on Feb. 1.

No states are holding secretary of state elections this year. In 2022, there will be 26 elections for the office.

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