The Daily Brew: Previewing next week’s special election primary in Ohio’s 11th Congressional District

Welcome to the Wednesday, July 28, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. Voters to decide special Democratic primary in Ohio’s 11th Congressional District on Aug. 3
  2. Jake Ellzey wins runoff for Texas’ 6th Congressional District
  3. Here’s an update on the recall election of California Gov. Gavin Newsom 

Voters to decide special Democratic primary in Ohio’s 11th Congressional District on Aug. 3

Let’s continue our previews of next week’s highlighted elections with a look at the Democratic primary in the special election for Ohio’s 11th Congressional District.

Thirteen candidates are running for the Democratic nomination in this district that extends from Cleveland to Akron in the northeast part of the state. Former incumbent Marcia Fudge (D) resigned in March after being confirmed as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in President Joe Biden’s (D) administration.

The Hill‘s Julia Manchester wrote that the race “has become a proxy battle for the Democratic Party establishment and national progressives,” referring to endorsements for candidates Shontel Brown and Nina Turner. Brown is on the Cuyahoga County Council. Turner is a former state senator and worked on Bernie Sanders’ 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns. 

Hillary Clinton, the Congressional Black Caucus PAC, and House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.) endorsed Brown. Sanders, the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) endorsed Turner. Ocasio-Cortez campaigned for Turner in Cleveland on July 24. Clyburn and Sanders are scheduled to campaign for Brown and Turner, respectively, this weekend.

Seth Richardson of wrote that local endorsements don’t break along the same dividing lines as national endorsements. Richardson noted Turner’s endorsements from local officials who supported Biden’s presidential primary campaign, including Cleveland Mayor Frank Jackson, and Brown’s share of endorsements from labor groups.

Early voting began July 7 and continues through Aug. 2. Laverne Gore and Felicia Ross are competing in the Republican primary, and the winners of both primaries will meet in the Nov. 2 special election. Inside Elections rates the November general election Solid Democratic.

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Jake Ellzey wins runoff for Texas’ 6th Congressional District 

Jake Ellzey (R) won Tuesday’s runoff election over Susan Wright (R) in Texas’ 6th Congressional District. With 98% of precincts reporting, Ellzey received 53% of the vote to Wright’s 47%. The former incumbent, Rep. Ronald Wright (R), died on Feb. 7 from COVID-19 related complications. Susan Wright is Ronald Wright’s widow. 

Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R), U.S. Rep Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas), and The Dallas Morning News endorsed Ellzey. Former President Donald Trump (R) and the Texas Republican Party executive committee endorsed Wright. Both candidates advanced from a 23-candidate special election on May 1.

Since both candidates in the runoff were Republicans, the seat did not change party hands as a result of this election. Seven congressional special elections have been scheduled or held so far this year. From the 113th Congress to the 116th Congress, 50 special elections were held. 

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Here’s an update on the recall election of California Gov. Gavin Newsom

Here’s some recent news regarding the Sept. 14 recall election of California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D). The recall will present voters with two questions. The first will ask whether Newsom should be recalled, and the second will ask who should succeed him if a majority of voters approve the first question. 

Candidate list finalized

Secretary of State Shirley Weber (D) released the final list of certified candidates on July 21. Forty-six candidates qualified for the recall, including nine Democrats, 24 Republicans, and 13 candidates with a third party or no party affiliation. Among the candidates are radio host Larry Elder (R), 2018 gubernatorial candidate John Cox (R), former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer (R), former Olympian and television personality Caitlyn Jenner (R), Assemblyman Kevin Kiley (R), former U.S. Rep. Doug Ose (R), and YouTuber Kevin Paffrath (D). 

A California Superior Court judge ruled on July 21 that Elder had met the state’s ballot requirements to become a candidate after Weber’s office had previously rejected him. The judge ruled Weber was wrong to require candidates running in the recall election to submit five years of tax returns and said a 2019 state law requiring that information did not apply to the recall. 

Polls released

Two organizations released polls in the last week showing opposition to the recall slightly higher than support but within each poll’s margin of error: 

  • Berkeley IGS released a poll on July 27 that showed 50% of respondents opposed the recall, and 47% supported it. Three percent were undecided. Elder (R) led the survey’s candidate polling at 18%, with no other candidate receiving more than 10% support and 40% of respondents undecided.
  • Inside California Politics and Emerson College released a poll on July 22 finding that 48% of voters opposed the recall, 43% supported it, and 9% were undecided. Elder led candidate polling at 16%, with no other candidate polling higher than 6%. Fifty-three percent of respondents were undecided on the candidate polling.

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