Looking back at the results of Tuesday’s battleground primaries

By

David Luchs

Welcome to the Thursday, May 5, Brew. 

By: David Luchs

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. Reviewing the results of Tuesday’s battleground primaries
  2. Candidate Connection update—survey responses from state legislative candidates in Pennsylvania and Georgia
  3. President Joe Biden’s approval at 41%, congressional approval at 27%

Reviewing the results of Tuesday’s battleground primaries

Voters in seven states hit the polls on Tuesday for elections within Ballotpedia’s coverage scope. We followed nine battleground primaries in three states; here’s an update on how all nine turned out:

  1. J.D. Vance wins Ohio Senate nomination: J.D. Vance defeated six other candidates to win the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate seat in Ohio currently held by Rob Portman (R).  Vance had 31% of the vote to Josh Mandel’s 24%, Matt Dolan’s 22%, and Mike Gibbons’ 12%.  No other candidate had more than 10% of the vote.
  2. Tim Ryan wins Ohio Senate nomination: Tim Ryan defeated Morgan Harper and Traci Johnson to win the Democratic nomination for Ohio’s open U.S. Senate seat. Ryan had 73% of the vote to Harper’s 16% and Johnson’s 11%. Ryan will face J.D. Vance in the general election.
  3. Decade-high number of incumbent defeats in Indiana state legislative primaries: Six members of Indiana’s state legislature—one senator and five representatives—lost re-election to primary challengers Tuesday. This was the largest number of state legislators defeated in an Indiana primary since 2012. All six defeated incumbents were Republicans.
  4. Gov. Mike DeWine wins primary: Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) defeated three challengers in the Republican primary for governor. DeWine had 48% of the vote to Jim Renacci’s 28% and Joe Blystone’s 22%. DeWine will face former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley (D) in the general election, which forecasters rate Likely Republican.
  5. Ohio Secretary of State wins primary: Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) defeated challenger John Adams (R) 66% to 34%. LaRose will face Chelsea Clark (D) in the general election.
  6. Shontel Brown defeats primary challenger: U.S. Rep. Shontel Brown (D) defeated primary challenger Nina Turner (D). Brown had 63% of the vote to Turner’s 37%. The two were backed by different members of the national party, with Joe Biden (D) and Nancy Pelosi (D) backing Brown and Bernie Sanders (I) backing Turner. Brown and Turner both ran in a 2021 special election in the district. That year, Brown won with 50% of the vote to Turner’s 45%.
  7. Madison Gesiotto Gilbert wins U.S. House nomination: Madison Gesiotto Gilbert defeated six other candidates to win the Republican nomination for U.S. House in Ohio’s 13th Congressional District. Gilbert had 28% of the vote to Gregory Wheeler’s 24%, Janet Folger Porter’s 17%, and Shay Hawkins’ 11%. No other candidate had more than 10% of the vote. Gilbert will face Emilia Sykes (D) in the general election, which forecasters rate a toss-up.
  8. Erin Houchin wins U.S. House nomination: Erin Houchin defeated eight other candidates to win the Republican nomination for U.S. House in Indiana’s 9th Congressional District. Houchin had 37% of the vote to Mike Sodrel’s 26% and Stu Barnes-Israel’s 21%. Election forecasters rate the general election Solid Republican, meaning Houchin is likely to win.
  9. J.R. Majewski wins U.S. House nomination: J.R. Majewski defeated three other candidates to win the Republican nomination in Ohio’s 9th Congressional District. Majewski had 36% of the vote to Craig Riedel’s 31% and Theresa Gavarone’s 29%. Majewski will face incumbent Marcy Kaptur (D), first elected in 1982, in the general election, which forecasters rate a toss-up.
  10. Nashville District Attorney wins primary: Nashville District Attorney Glenn Funk (D) defeated two challengers to win re-nomination in the Democratic primary. Funk had 43% of the vote to Sara Beth Myers’ 40% and P. Danielle Nellis’ 17%. No Republican filed for the office, meaning Funk is likely to win re-election.

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Candidate Connection update—survey responses from state legislative candidates in Pennsylvania and Georgia

Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey asks candidates for federal, state, and local office to share what motivates them on a personal and political level.

As of May 4, 2022, we’re covering 50 races with final candidate lists in which all candidates have completed the survey. Six of those races reached that milestone in the past week.

What’s new this week

This week, we’re featuring two state legislative primaries—a Republican primary in Pennsylvania and a Democratic primary in Georgia.

Eric Clancy and Thomas Kutz are the two candidates on the Republican primary ballot in Pennsylvania’s 87th state House District. Located to the west of Harrisburg, the 87th district shifted south and west following the 2020 round of redistricting. Incumbent Greg Rothman (R) is running for state senate, leaving the House seat open. In 2020, Rothman defeated Nicole Miller (D) 56% to 44% under the old district lines.

Here’s how Clancy and Kutz answered the question, “What is the first historical event that happened in your lifetime that you remember? How old were you at the time?”

Eric Clancy:

“Perhaps not the first historic event but I remember sitting in a junior high homeroom class. The teacher received the NY Times every day, he let me read it because I folded it properly when I returned it to him. I remember looking at the daily reports around the US withdrawal from Vietnam and casualty numbers. The turmoil on the front page, of domestic trouble around the US, and the ever shrinking circle of secure space in Saigon on the third page graphic was really very sad. The homeroom teacher was a veteran, a neighbor of a friend lost her son there, and my father had classmates from West Point that had been there. There was not shortage of insight and opinion but it just seemed wrong that our blood and treasure was being spent with, at that point, a feeble plan.

I grew up with complete respect for our country and this didn’t seem right, or consistent with the respect our Country was due. It was a time of real reflection. This was brought on by men, perhaps failed men, with a political focus not the spirited Country that I respected.”

Thomas Kutz:

“As a young school student, I vividly remember the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. These attacks shook America to its very core and threatened the foundation of freedom. The terrorist attacks had a profound effect on me, and it instilled in me a passion to serve my community and to ensure that the American ideal would live on despite the attacks it faces. I’m grateful for every first responder who ran towards the danger that day, and I’m grateful for every soldier who answered the call to serve in order to protect our freedoms and our way of life.”

Solomon Adesanya and Benjamin Stahl are the two candidates running in the Democratic primary for Georgia House of Representatives District 43. The district, located in between Marietta and Sandy Springs to the north of Atlanta, shifted slightly north and west following the 2020 round of redistricting.  Incumbent Sharon Cooper (R) is running for re-election in a different district, leaving this seat open. In 2020, Cooper defeated Luisa Wakeman (D) 51% to 49% under the old district lines.

Here’s how Adesanya and Stahl answered the question, “What areas of public policy are you personally passionate about?”

Solomon Adesanya:

“We’ve had the same funding formula for our public schools in Georgia for over 30 years. Georgia is one of only eight states in the U.S. that does not provide additional funding specifically to educate students living in poverty. In other states, funding reforms of the last 30 years have increased opportunities for lower-income schools and improved student achievement. My passion for quality public education is a driving force. I will fight every day to ensure all kids have a space to blossom.”

Benjamin Stahl:

“THE PROBLEMS WE FACE MAY SEEM SMALL TO OTHERS, BUT ARE CRUCIAL TO ENSURING PERSONAL SUCCESS AND GROWTH. THE CONSTITUENTS OF HD43 BELIEVE THAT LEADERSHIP ROOTED IN PRINCIPLES AND VALUES IS PARAMOUNT TO EFFECTIVE AND EFFICIENT GOVERNMENT.”

About Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey

Some other details about the 50 races where all candidates have completed the survey:

  • They are located in 21 states.
  • Fourteen of the 50 races are taking place in Texas.
  • Four of the 50 races are general elections.
  • Of the 46 primaries and runoffs, 27 are for the Democratic nomination and 19 are for the Republican nomination.
  • Twenty-one of the 50 are races for U.S. House.

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President Joe Biden’s approval at 41%, congressional approval at 27%

Recent approval polling averages show President Joe Biden (D) steady at 41% and congressional approval up at 27%. 

Ballotpedia’s polling index showed Biden at 41% approval and 52% disapproval as of April 30. At this time last month, his approval rating was also at 41%. The highest approval rating Biden has received is 55%, last seen on May 26, 2021, and the lowest approval rating he has received is 40%, last seen on April 18, 2022. At this point in 2018, Donald Trump’s (R) approval rating was 42%.

Congress was at 27% approval and 59% disapproval. At this time last month, its approval rating was 23%. The highest approval rating Congress has received during the Biden Administration is 36%, last seen on July 16, 2021, and the lowest approval rating it has received is 14%, last seen on Jan. 26, 2022. At this point in 2018, the congressional approval rating was 16%.

Ballotpedia’s polling index takes the average of polls conducted over the last thirty days to calculate presidential and congressional approval ratings. We average the results and show all polling results side-by-side because we believe that paints a clearer picture of public opinion than any individual poll can provide. The data is updated daily as new polling results are published.

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