David Luchs

Welcome to the Wednesday, December 21, Brew. 

By: David Luchs

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. More than 1,000 candidates who won election this November completed Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey
2. Minimum wages set to increase in 27 states in 2023 by an average of $0.87
3. Voting in Ballotpedia’s Holiday Cookie Election closes tomorrow at 5 p.m. Eastern

More than 1,000 candidates who won election this November completed Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey

Last month, we told you about winning candidates who filled out our Candidate Connection survey. When we wrote that story, more than 900 candidates who completed the survey had won, with another 550 in races that were too close to call. Here’s an update for races that have been called.

Currently, 1,035 candidates who completed the Candidate Connection survey were elected on Nov. 8, accounting for 28% of the 3,769 total who completed the survey (up from 24% the last time we ran this story). This number includes 27 candidates for federal office (2.6%), 657 candidates for state office (63.5%), and 351 candidates for local office (33.9%). There are still 272 candidates (7% of the total) who ran in races that are too close to call.

Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey offers candidates an opportunity to share with voters what motivates them on a personal and political level.

The winning candidates who completed Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey include 47 who were elected to state executive office. Here are some selected responses from winning candidates for financial office.

John Lieber (R) defeated Aaron Richardson (D) 50%-48% for Wisconsin Treasurer.

What do you believe are the core responsibilities for someone elected to this office?

• Being an effective member of a board and having a proven work ethic.

What responsibilities of this office do you personally consider the most important?

• Serving on the Board of Commissioners of Public Lands and managing the trust fund.

Are there any little-known powers or responsibilities held by this office that you believe more people should be aware of?

• Because only one person staffs the office, the Treasurer, it’s crucial to choose a person with a strong professional ethic who will be responsible and accountable for the entire 4-year term.

Do you believe that it’s beneficial for holders of this office to have previous experience in government or politics?

• Yes, particularly since the only employee is the Treasurer. There is not staff. Understanding the mission of this office, how to interact with the legislature and executive branch, and being a skilled financial manager are all beneficial to best serve taxpayers as Treasurer.

Brooke Elizabeth Lierman (D) defeated Barry Glassman (R) 57%-43% for Maryland Comptroller.

What qualities does this office possess that makes it a unique and important part of the state government and legal system?

• As the elected chief financial officer for the state of Maryland, our Comptroller must be a leader who embraces creative ideas and has the ability to put those ideas into action – from big ideas on wealth-building policies to the little details that make it easier for families and businesses to pay taxes and access state programs and benefits.

What do you believe are the core responsibilities for someone elected to this office?

• There are many responsibilities of this office that are important. The Comptroller sees every dollar in and every dollar out and the Comptroller is responsible for the accurate and fair administration of our tax and payment systems. Additionally, the Comptroller sits on many important boards including the Board of Public Works where all major spending decisions get made. The Comptroller must work with all stakeholders throughout the process to ensure Marylanders are getting the best value for their dollars.

What responsibilities of this office do you personally consider the most important?

• There are many responsibilities of this office that are important. The Comptroller sees every dollar in and every dollar out and the Comptroller is responsible for the accurate and fair administration of our tax and payment systems. As the guardian of Marylander’s tax dollars, it is essential the Comptroller keeps a close eye on our states’ finances.

Ballotpedia’s full Candidate Connection report, with details on candidate win rates, comparisons to previous years, and more featured responses, will be published after certified results are available in all 50 states.

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Minimum wages will increase in 27 states in 2023 by an average of $0.87

When the calendar changes over to 2023, many states will see triggered statutory updates to minimum wages. In 2023, the minimum wage will increase in 27 states. The increases range from $0.23 in Michigan (a 2.28% rise from 2022) to $1.50 in Nebraska (a 14.29% increase from 2022).

1. one increase takes effect on Dec. 31, 2022;
2. 22 increases take effect on Jan. 1, 2023;
3. one takes effect on June 1, 2023;
4. two take effect on July 1, 2023; and
5. one takes effect on Sept. 30, 2023.

Going into 2023, 20 states use the federal minimum wage rate of $7.25, and 30 states have minimum wages greater than the federal minimum wage.

The 2023 increases come from state laws that provide for annual inflation adjustments. The highest state minimum wage in 2023 will be in Washington at $15.74.

The wage in Washington, D.C., increased from $15 to $16.10 on July 1, 2022, making it the highest minimum wage in the country. Additionally, voters in Washington, D.C., approved Initiative 82 in 2022, which increased the tipped minimum wage from $5.35 in 2022 to match the minimum wage of non-tipped employees in 2027.

The state-required minimum wage is lowest in Georgia and Wyoming, where the federal government’s $7.25 per hour wage surpasses the states’ $5.15 minimum.

On Nov. 8, voters in Nebraska and Nevada approved minimum wage ballot measures. Nebraska Initiative 433 was designed to incrementally increase the state’s minimum wage from $9 to $15 by 2026 and make annual cost of living adjustments after that.

Nevada Question 2 will increase the minimum wage for all employees to $12 per hour by July 1, 2024. This will replace the existing two-tiered system in which employees who receive healthcare benefits would have a lower minimum wage ($11) than those who do not ($12) in 2024. On July 1, 2022, the minimum wage increased to $9.50 for employees with employer health benefits and $10.50 for employees without employer health benefits.

In 2022, Hawaii passed a minimum wage increase. Hawaii Governor David Ige (D) signed House Bill 2510 into law as Act 114, raising the $10.10 per hour minimum wage to $12.00 per hour starting on Oct. 1, 2022. Act 114 will increase the minimum wage to $14.00 on Jan. 1, 2024, to $16.00 on Jan. 1, 2026, and $18.00 on Jan. 1, 2028.

From 1996 to 2022, there were 28 minimum wage increase measures on the ballot. Voters approved 26 (92.86%) and rejected two (7.14%). The last time that voters rejected a minimum wage increase measure was in 1996 in Missouri and Montana.

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Voting in Ballotpedia’s Holiday Cookie Election closes tomorrow at 5 p.m. Eastern

General election season is here! If you haven’t voted yet in Ballotpedia’s 2022 Holiday Cookie Election, you have until tomorrow, Dec. 22, at 5 p.m. Eastern to cast your ballot. This year, the three candidates advancing from the primary were Gingerbread cookie, Sugar cookie, and Snickerdoodle. Only one will be this year’s holiday cookie winner! View more on the three general election cookies here.

Cast your vote!

Welcome to the Wednesday, December 14, Brew. 

By: David Luchs

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. 11 state legislative special elections have been scheduled for 2023
2. Leadership of Pennsylvania House of Representatives remains unclear
3. Voting continues for the Official Holiday Cookie!

Eleven state legislative special elections have been scheduled for 2023

Yesterday, we looked at the 54 state legislative special elections in 2022. Now, let’s take a look at the special elections already scheduled for 2023.

Eleven state legislative special elections have been scheduled for 2023 in seven states. Democrats last represented six of the seats up for election, and Republicans last represented five. Three are senate seats, and eight are in state houses.

The only special elections with the potential to change partisan control of the chamber are taking place in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. See our second story for more on those races. Outside of the Pennsylvania House, the closest margin in a chamber holding special elections is the Democrats’ 22-19 majority in the Virginia State Senate, where a seat last held by a Republican will be up for election.

Four special elections are taking place because the incumbent was elected to a different office. Three are taking place because the incumbent died. Another three are taking place because the incumbent resigned to take another job, and one is taking place because the incumbent retired from politics.

Among the newly-elected officeholders who resigned are U.S. Reps.-elect Summer Lee (D-Penn.) and Jennifer Kiggans (R-Va.), and Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor-elect Austin Davis (D).

Five special elections will take place in January, three in February, two in March, and one in April.

The 11 special elections already scheduled for 2023 are:

• Georgia House District 7 (Jan. 3)
• Mississippi House District 23 (Jan. 10)
• Virginia Senate District 7 (Jan. 10)
• Virginia House District 35 (Jan. 10)
• Pennsylvania Senate District 27 (Jan. 31)
• Pennsylvania House District 32 (Feb. 7 — tentative)
• Pennsylvania House District 34 (Feb. 7 — tentative)
• Pennsylvania House District 35 (Feb. 7 — tentative)
• Tennessee House District 86 (March 14)
• Louisiana House District 93 (March 25)
• Wisconsin Senate District 8 (Apr. 4)

There were an average of 74 state legislative districts holding special elections in each year between 2011 and 2021. The two post-midterm years during that time period both had an above-average number of special elections, with 89 held in 2015 and 77 held in 2019.

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Leadership of Pennsylvania House of Representatives remains unclear

More than one month after Election Day, control of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives remains unclear, and two legislators are laying claim to the position of majority leader. 

Democrats won 102 districts to Republicans’ 101 in the November elections. Democrat Anthony DeLuca died in October but won re-election as his name still appeared on the ballot, leaving the chamber divided with 101 members from each party.

Then, on Dec. 7, Summer Lee (D) and Austin Davis (D) submitted their resignations to take other offices effective immediately, leaving Democrats with 99 members to Republicans’ 101.

Special elections to fill the vacancies left by Democrats Davis, DeLuca, and Lee will determine control of the chamber. When the special elections will take place is not yet settled and depends on the outcome of disputes about who is the chamber’s majority leader. Under Pennsylvania law, the majority leader schedules state legislative special elections.

As of this writing, both Democrat Joanna McClinton and Republican Bryan Cutler describe themselves as majority leader. McClinton says she was sworn in on Dec. 7 on the grounds that Democrats won more districts on Election Day. Cutler says McClinton’s swearing-in was not legitimate because Democrats do not have a majority. Cutler says he was sworn in as majority leader on Dec. 12.

McClinton scheduled the three special elections for Feb. 7, but House Republicans filed a lawsuit Dec. 9 challenging the timing and alleging Cutler should have the power to schedule the elections instead.

All three districts voted for Joe Biden (D) by margins of 15 percentage points or more in the 2020 presidential election.

The chamber’s 2023 legislative session begins on Jan. 3 with the election of a new House speaker. Assuming no other changes between now and then, Republicans will have 101 votes to Democrats’ 99 at that date.

Keep reading 

Voting continues for the Official Holiday Cookie!

We’re three days into the primary election for 2022’s Official Holiday Cookie. Have you cast your ballots yet?

This delicious race will lead to the general election, which will feature the top 3 candidates from the primary election.  The ultimate winner will be announced on Thursday, Dec. 22. 

While we won’t have the play-by-play for the campaigning in this election, we do have it for our report highlighting recalls of elected officials!

Be sure to keep an eye out for our 2022 year-end report, but in the meantime, vote now for your favorite holiday cookie!

Cast your vote here!

Welcome to the Wednesday, November 30, Brew. 

By: David Luchs

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. Voters rejected all three ballot measures calling for constitutional conventions
2. Control of Alaska House of Representatives still undecided
3. More than 900 winning candidates completed Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey this year

Voters rejected all three ballot measures calling for constitutional conventions 

Fourteen states have a constitutional requirement to ask voters to weigh in on whether there ought to be a constitutional convention. These states’ constitutions require such questions to be referred to the ballot. Three states had those questions on the ballot in 2022.

Voters in Alaska, Missouri, and New Hampshire rejected the measures, denying the convention convening.

A state constitutional convention is a gathering of elected delegates who propose revisions and amendments to a state constitution. To date, 233 state constitutional conventions have been held in the United States.

Rhode Island was the last state to hold a voter-approved constitutional convention, doing so in 1984. Rhode Island voters will decide on a constitutional convention question in Nov. 2024. In Rhode Island, the question is automatically placed on the general election ballot every ten years. This requirement was added to the Rhode Island Constitution at a convention held in 1973.

Other states allow their legislatures to refer constitutional convention questions to the ballot. In five states, the legislature may call a constitutional convention without referring a measure to the ballot if a supermajority votes in favor. Seven states—Arkansas, Indiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Vermont—do not allow state constitutional conventions.

From 2000 to 2022, 22 constitutional convention questions appeared on statewide ballots in 13 states. All were defeated. The average vote was 64.44% opposed to 35.03% in favor. The question that came closest to being approved was in New Hampshire in 2002, which was defeated with 49.13% voting ‘Yes’ and 50.87% voting ‘No.’

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Control of Alaska House of Representatives still undecided

Speaking of Alaska, three weeks after Election Day, control of the Alaska House of Representatives is still undecided because of a possible power-sharing coalition forming.

Although certified election results were not available as of this writing, local political observers say Republicans appear to have won 21 seats to Democrats’ 13, with the six remaining seats going to independents who are expected to caucus with the Democrats.

In both 2018 and 2020, Republicans won a numerical majority in the Alaska House, but Democrats and independents joined with some Republicans to form a power-sharing coalition.

Alaska will have a divided government regardless of whether a power-sharing coalition forms. Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) was re-elected on the first ballot of the ranked-choice vote, becoming the first Alaska governor to win re-election since 1998 and the first Republican to do so since 1978. In the state Senate, all nine Democrats joined with eight of 11 Republicans to form a power-sharing coalition.

The Alaska House is the last remaining state legislative chamber where post-election control is unclear after the Republican majority in the New Hampshire House of Representatives was confirmed Monday. Republicans won 200 seats to Democrats’ 198, with the final results of two races subject to appeals.

New Hampshire

Republicans gained one of the two seats up for dispute when the Ballot Law Commission voted to count 27 absentee ballots that had been left out of the election-night count, bringing the Republican majority to 201-198 and confirming the party’s control of the chamber.

The two candidates who tied for the final remaining seat agreed to withdraw their dispute from the Ballot Law Commission. Instead, the state House will vote at the beginning of the next session on whether to break the tie itself or to call a special election. The result will determine whether House Republicans have a one-seat or a two-seat majority.

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More than 900 winning candidates completed Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey this year

More than 900 candidates who won election this month completed Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey. Of the 3,769 candidates on the ballot who filled out the survey, 902 (24%) were elected. Another 553 candidates (15%) ran in elections that remain too close to call.

Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey offers candidates for political office an opportunity to share with voters what motivates them on a personal and political level.

Among this year’s election winners to complete the survey are 26 candidates for U.S. House. Here are some selected responses from members-elect to Congress.

Jennifer Kiggans (R) defeated incumbent Elaine Luria (D) 52%-48% in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District.

Who are you? Tell us about yourself.

I am a State Senator, geriatric nurse practitioner, U.S. Navy veteran, mother, Navy wife, and Republican candidate for Congress in Virginia’s 2nd District.

What areas of public policy are you personally passionate about?

I am a strong advocate for pro-growth policies that empower small businesses to do what they do best – create jobs, expand, and bolster our economy, combating the rising cost of living and increase energy costs hurting our families, fighting for election integrity, standing with law enforcement and our first responders to keep Hampton Roads safe, championing conservative values, and standing with parents and students against “wokeism” entering our schools.

What characteristics or principles are most important for an elected official?

The most important characteristic for an elected official is to be a good listener. Everyone wants to feel heard in life. When people are struggling or hurting, it is especially important for someone to listen and respond to their needs. As an elected official, my job is to listen, try to understand, and try to provide help for their concerns.

What legacy would you like to leave?

I would like to make the world a better place for our older adult patient population. The frail elderly are an underrepresented and sometimes voiceless group who needs more advocates in government. There is much need for nursing home reform and support for our caregivers in the present healthcare system. It is an honor to fight for our Greatest Generation in politics.

Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez (D) defeated Joe Kent (R) 51%-49% in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District.

Who are you? Tell us about yourself.

I am Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, a Democrat, fifth-generation Washingtonian, small business owner, and mother. I’m running to represent Washington’s Third congressional district to bring the voices of Middle America back to DC.

I will work for Washington by supporting small businesses and worker’s rights, lowering the costs of healthcare, childcare and prescription drugs, addressing climate change by investing in clean energy, getting Big Money out of politics, investing in and expanding apprenticeship and skills training programs, protecting women’s access to health and rights, and tackling the rising costs of food, gas, and housing.

I own an auto-repair shop with my husband Dean, but like many small business owners, cannot afford healthcare for the two of us. We pay $500 a month for our infant son, but simply can’t afford an additional $1,200 to cover ourselves. Like so many families today, we struggle to find quality affordable childcare – so our son goes to the auto shop with us everyday.

I am a member of the working class Washingtonians that have been left behind in this economy and ignored by the political extremes in our nation’s capital – and that’s exactly why I’m running for Congress.

What areas of public policy are you personally passionate about?

Economy, plastic pollution, affordable childcare, fixing the supply chain, safe communities

Ballotpedia’s full Candidate Connection report, with details on candidate win rates, comparisons to previous years, and more featured responses, will be published after certified results are available in all 50 states.

Keep reading

Welcome to the Wednesday, November 23, Brew. 

By: David Luchs

We’ll be taking tomorrow and Friday off for the Thanksgiving holiday; the Brew will resume Monday, Nov. 28. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. Tracking state legislative elections in pivot counties
2. A look at Ballotpedia’s favorite Thanksgiving dishes
3. Going to see a high school relative? Tell them about our Fellows Program!

Tracking state legislative elections in pivot counties

In the 2022 elections, Pivot Counties overlapped 822 state legislative seats (242 state senate seats and 580 state house seats). This accounted for 13.1% of the 6,278 seats up for election.

Maine had the most such state legislative districts, with 93 state legislative districts that overlapped Pivot Counties (11.3% of all overlapping districts). Maine was followed by New Hampshire with 75 overlapping districts (9.1%), then Michigan with 60 (7.3%). As of Nov. 21, and with 55 uncalled races, Democrats won 250 of those seats, and Republicans won 515. 

Pivot Counties are the 206 counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and for Donald Trump (R) in the 2016 presidential election. Reverse-Pivot Counties are the six counties that voted for John McCain (R) in 2008, Mitt Romney (R) in 2012, and Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016.

In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won 181 Pivot Counties, and Joe Biden (D) won 25 Pivot Counties.

Following the 2020 elections, 507 Republican legislators represented districts overlapping a Pivot County, and 290 Democratic legislators represented districts overlapping a Pivot County.

Reverse-Pivot Counties overlapped 104 state legislative seats (32 state senate seats and 72 state house seats). As of Nov. 21, with six uncalled races, Democrats won 60 of those seats, and Republicans won 38. 

Following the 2020 elections, 58 Democratic legislators represented districts overlapping a Reverse-Pivot County, and 37 Republican legislators represented districts overlapping a Reverse-Pivot County.

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A look at Ballotpedia’s favorite Thanksgiving dishes

Thanksgiving is tomorrow! While the political calendar never stops, all of us at Ballotpedia are looking forward to spending some time with family and friends. Last week, we shared what Thanksgiving dishes we’re looking forward to the most. I asked around at Ballotpedia and here’s a sampling of the meals we are most-looking forward to.

• “Consider this my annual plug for the best stuffing recipe in the history of the world and Ina Garten’s twice baked sweet potatoes, a staple at our table.”
• “The last two years my wife and I have just done Thanksgiving for ourselves. She’s not a steak-eater so my meat this year is gonna be a nice ribeye . It’s unconventional but doing turkey for two people is just not practical.”
• “I think I’m an even bigger fan of Thanksgiving leftovers than I am of the actual  dinner . I’m sure you’re all familiar with the famous Thanksgiving leftover sandwich. Recipes vary, but my goal is always to stuff as much of the leftovers as I can into a series of dinner rolls. 
• “For at least the last 5 years, I’ve taken over turkey duty for our family Thanksgiving.  I really enjoy the act of making the turkey and the big reveal when it comes out of the oven and looks so good, but I’m not a big fan of actually eating turkey.  I’d much rather fill my plate up with sides.
  
  My Grandmother’s dressing was always my favorite dish on the family table. When I asked for her recipe, she said ‘oh, it’s the recipe from the Pepperidge Farm dressing mix.’  My cousins, sister, and I were devastated to learn this wasn’t some secret recipe!
• “Very much looking forward to stuffing, green bean casserole, homemade noodles…really just all the things. ”

From all of us at Ballotpedia, we hope you have a happy Thanksgiving and safe travels! Our regular coverage will resume Monday, Nov. 28.

Going to see a high school relative? Tell them about our Fellows Program!

Will you be seeing a relative in high school or college this week? Tell them about Ballotpedia’s Fellows Program!

The Fellows Program provides high school and college students interested in politics with a service opportunity that helps develop subject matter expertise in political research and analysis. Fellows who complete our program of 5-10 hours of work per week are eligible for a nationally-recognized service honor.

Applications for the Spring 2023 Ballotpedia Fellows class are now open! Applications will be accepted on a rolling basis between now and Dec. 22, 2022. 

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Welcome to the Wednesday, November 16, Brew. 

By: David Luchs

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. At least 2.6% of state legislative incumbents lost on Nov. 8, with 343 races uncalled
2. Voters addressed 132 statewide ballot measures on Nov. 8
3. Ballotpedia’s free down-ballot results webinar is tomorrow

At least 2.6% of state legislative incumbents lost on Nov. 8, with 343 races uncalled

We’ve finished processing 93% of the Nov. 8 races featuring state legislative incumbents. Based on preliminary results, at least 121 state legislative incumbents—73 Democrats, 45 Republicans, and three independent or minor party officeholders—have lost.

Forty-six states held state legislative elections for 88 of the country’s 99 chambers. Across those races, at least 2.6% of incumbents running for re-election have lost.

This figure is expected to increase. There are currently 343 races featuring incumbents that remain uncalled.

The states with the largest percentage of defeated incumbents so far are West Virginia and North Dakota, where 10.3% (9) and 10.4% (7) of incumbents on the ballot lost, respectively. Both states still have uncalled races featuring incumbents, so these figures could increase.

In ten states, no incumbents lost, though nine of those states still have uncalled races featuring incumbents. 

In Texas, all races are called, and, for the first time in over a decade, every incumbent running for re-election won.

Based on the races called so far, Democratic incumbents have lost at a higher rate than Republicans.

Of the 2,198 Democratic incumbents running in general elections, 73 (3.3%) have lost. For Republicans, 45 of the 2,405 who filed for re-election (1.9%) have lost.

We’ve also been keeping an eye on overall control of state legislative chambers and the effect those elections have had on state government trifectas. As of writing, Democrats have gained four trifectas in states that were under divided government heading into the election (Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Minnesota). Republicans and Democrats have both lost a single trifecta, with Republicans losing their trifecta in Arizona and Democrats losing theirs in Nevada.

With Alaska’s final trifecta status undetermined, there will be 22 states with Republican trifectas, 17 with Democratic trifectas, and 10 with divided government following this year’s elections.

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Voters addressed 132 statewide ballot measures on Nov. 8

On Nov. 8, voters in 37 states decided on 132 statewide ballot measures. Let’s check in on the status of where they stand. As of Nov. 14, voters approved 87 (66%) and defeated 38 (29%). Seven (5%) remained uncalled; five were leaning ‘No’ and two were leaning ‘Yes.’

In 2020, 120 measures were on the ballot in November. Voters approved 88 (73%) and defeated 32 (27%). From 2010 to 2020, 67% of statewide ballot measures were approved. 

Nov. 8 wasn’t the last state ballot measure election of 2022. On Dec. 10, voters in Louisiana will decide on three constitutional amendments, including an amendment to prohibit local governments from allowing non-citizens to vote. The other two amendments would require Senate confirmation for appointees to the State Civil Service Commission and State Police Commission.

Earlier in 2022, voters in four states decided on five ballot measures. Voters approved three and rejected two of these measures.

Ballotpedia’s Editor in Chief Geoff Pallay and Managing Editor for Ballot Measures Ryan Byrne recapped the results in this year’s ballot measures in a webinar last week. Click here to view a free recording.

Keep reading 

Ballotpedia’s free down-ballot results webinar is tomorrow

You know the major election results; now let us fill you in on what you may not have seen on election day.

Join Ballotpedia’s Editor in Chief, Geoff Pallay, and Managing Editor, Cory Eucalitto for a breakdown of the key results and trends from 2022’s November elections. We’ll examine results from state-level elections to local ballot measures across the country.

The webinar will start at 2:30 p.m. Eastern. A recording will be made available here later Thursday.

Register here

Welcome to the Wednesday, November 9, Brew. 

By: David Luchs

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. Control of Congress remains too close to call
2. What happened in the states
3. Six top ballot measure results
4. A look at winning candidates who completed Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey
5. When will results be finalized? A look ahead to certification

Good morning! We hope you got some sleep last night. If you stayed up following the results, you likely have a good sense of what happened. If you hit a normal bedtime, this may be one of your first updates and we hope to give you a general summary of results from across the country. We’ll be back in your inbox at our regular time tomorrow morning. Visit Ballotpedia.org all day today for updated results as states continue to process ballots. All results and updates below are as of 5am EST.

Control of Congress remains too close to call

Control of both chambers of the U.S. Congress remains too close to call. Republicans needed to gain one seat in the U.S. Senate and five seats in the U.S. House to win control. Democrats needed to lose no seats, or gain seats, in the U.S. Senate and to lose four or fewer seats in the U.S. House in order to maintain their control.

Democrats had the narrowest governing majorities heading into a midterm in decades. Since 1990, the next-narrowest majorities were Republicans’ majorities heading into the 2002 midterms, when Democrats needed to gain one seat in the U.S. Senate and eight seats in the U.S. House to win control.

Midterm elections for U.S. Congress tend to favor the party that does not control the White House. Ballotpedia’s analysis of wave elections between 1918 and 2016 found that the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in the House and four seats in the Senate during the first midterm of a new administration. The president’s party lost an average of 14 seats in the House and two in the Senate across all even-numbered elections during the same period.

Although we expect most races will be called at some point this week, Senate control could rest in Georgia for the second cycle in a row. If neither incumbent Raphael Warnock (D) nor challenger Herschel Walker (R) wins 50% of the vote in the final tally, both candidates will advance to a runoff on December 6. In the 2020 election, two runoff elections in Georgia decided final control of the U.S. Senate. Georgia law allows election officials or candidates to request a recount, although a candidate may only request a recount if the initial margin of victory is 0.5 percentage points or less.

Keep reading

What happened in the states

If the current results hold, there will be more state trifectas than at any time in the past 30 years. At least two states—Maryland and Massachusetts—became Democratic trifectas when Democrats won the governorship. 

If trifecta control does not change in any other state, this would leave 39 total trifectas – Republicans with 23, Democrats with 16, and 11 states where neither party has a trifecta. This would be an increase from 14 states with Democratic trifectas before the election. This would also be the fewest number of states with divided government since at least 1992. The previous low was 12 states with divided government in 2021. 

Early indications are that Michigan’s legislature may flip from Republican control to Democratic. If it does, that would give Democrats a trifecta and make 40 trifectas nationally. If Democrats also flip the Minnesota Senate, that would add a 41st trifecta nationally – 23 Rs, 18 Ds, 9 divided. Follow along at ballotpedia.org throughout the day for updates. The chart above does not include Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, or Minnesota. 

Massachusetts and Maryland had been Democratic trifectas heading into the 2014 elections, when both elected Republican governors. This year, Maryland voters elected Wes Moore (D) as governor and Massachusetts voters elected Maura Healey (D), handing control of both offices back to Democrats.

Both states were among the seven where we projected Democrats had a chance at winning a trifecta this year. Control of 26 state legislative chambers remains too close to call. 

Republicans gained veto-proof majorities thus far in four chambers: the Florida Senate, Florida House, North Carolina Senate, and South Carolina House. As of writing, Republicans had not gained veto-proof majorities in the North Carolina House or the South Carolina Senate.

Heading into the election, there were 24 states where one party controlled a veto-proof legislative majority. Republicans held 16 of those majorities and Democrats held eight.

While many results are still coming in, here are 10 additional election results of note where we know the outcome:

1. U.S. House Ohio District 1: Greg Landsman (D) defeated incumbent Steve Chabot (R). Chabot was first elected in 1994 and lost re-election in 2008 before winning election again in 2010. Landsman has served on the Cincinnati City Council since 2017. Two election forecasters called this race a toss-up and one said it leaned towards Chabot. Chabot was among four U.S. House incumbents to have lost re-election in 2022 thus far, alongside Mayra Flores (R), Elaine Luria (D), and Al Lawson (D). In 2020, 13 U.S. House members—all Democrats—lost re-election. Thirty-four incumbents lost bids for re-election in 2018.
2. Governor of Florida: Incumbent Ron DeSantis (R) defeated Charlie Crist (D), Carmen Gimenez (I), and Hector Roos (L). In 2018, DeSantis defeated Andrew Gillum (D) 49.6% to 49.2%. DeSantis’ win preserves Florida’s Republican trifecta. Election night returns show DeSantis with 59.5% of the vote. If these results hold, they would be the largest percentage of the vote won by any Republican candidate for governor of Florida in state history, surpassing Harrison Reed’s (R) 59.1% share in 1868.
3. Iowa Attorney General: Brenna Bird (R) defeated incumbent Thomas John Miller (D) in Iowa’s election for attorney general. Because Secretary of State Paul Pate (R) and Governor Kim Reynolds (R) won their re-election campaigns, Republicans gained a triplex in Iowa. Miller was first elected state attorney general in 1978. He did not run for re-election in 1990 but was re-elected in 1994 and has held the office ever since. This is one of 30 elections for attorney general this year; 16 are in states where the office is held by a Democrat and 14 are in states where it is held by a Republican.
4. Iowa Treasurer: Roby Smith (R) defeated incumbent Michael Fitzgerald (D), who has been in office since 1983. In 2018, Fitzgerald defeated Jeremy Davis (R) 55% to 43%. The Iowa Treasurer is one of 68 state financial offices on the ballot this year. State financial officers’ roles vary from office to office and state to state, but they are broadly responsible for things like auditing other government offices, managing payroll, and overseeing pensions. For more information on state financial officer elections this year, click here.
5. Kansas Treasurer: Steven Johnson (R) defeated incumbent Lynn Rogers (D) and Steve Roberts (L). Rogers was appointed to the post in 2021 after Jacob LaTurner (R) was elected to the U.S. House. LaTurner defeated Marci Francisco (D) 58% to 42% in 2018.
6. North Carolina Supreme Court: Republicans won a majority on the court by gaining two seats. Before the election, Democrats had a 4-3 majority. Now, Republicans have a 4-3 majority. Richard Dietz (R), a judge on the North Carolina Court of Appeals, defeated fellow appellate judge Lucy Inman (D) to win election to the seat currently held by retiring Justice Robin Hudson (D). Trey Allen (R), the general counsel to the North Carolina Administrative Office of the Courts, defeated incumbent Sam Ervin IV (D), who was first elected in 2014. This year, 25 states held supreme court elections for 84 seats.
7. Ohio Supreme Court: Three seats on the Ohio Supreme Court were up for partisan election, none of which had a change in partisan control, maintaining Republicans’ 4-3 majority. Justices Pat Fischer (R) and Pat DeWine (R) were both up for retention election. Both judges defeated Democratic challengers. Two other justices—Sharon L. Kennedy (R) and Jennifer L. Brunner (D)—ran against one another for the chief justice position currently held by retiring Justice Maureen O’Connor (R). Kennedy won that election, opening a vacancy for her associate justice post that Gov. Mike DeWine (R) will fill. 
8. Wisconsin Assembly District 63: Incumbent Robin Vos (R) defeated write-in candidates Joel Jacobson (D) and Adam Steen (R). Vos, who was first elected in 2005 and has served as speaker of the House since 2013, defeated Steen 51% to 49% in the August primary. Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Steen.
9. Oregon Measure 113: Oregon voters approved a measure disqualifying state legislators who missed more than 10 floor sessions without permission or excuse from seeking re-election. There have been at least three instances of legislators leaving the state to prevent votes in the Oregon state legislature since 2020.
10. Maryland Question 4: Maryland voters approved a ballot measure legalizing the recreational use of marijuana for adults 21 and older. Marijuana was already legal for medical use in Maryland and possession of 10 grams or under was decriminalized. The measure makes Maryland the 20th state to legalize recreational marijuana. There are four other states with ballot measures to legalize marijuana this year: Arkansas, Missouri, North Dakota, and South Dakota.

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Six top ballot measure results

Here’s a quick rundown of results for six of our top 15 ballot measures to watch. Subscribe to our State Ballot Measures newsletter for a more detailed update in your inbox later this afternoon. Here’s how voters decided on those questions:

• California Proposition 26: Voters rejected this proposition 70% to 30%. Proposition 26 would have legalized sports betting at American Indian casinos and licensed racetracks and enacted a 10% tax on sports betting profits. The Peace and Freedom Party of California and at least two dozen American Indian tribes supported the measure, while the Republican Party of California opposed it. Supporters and opponents contributed a combined $176 million to campaigns related to Proposition 26, making it this year’s second most-expensive ballot measure.
• California Proposition 27: Voters rejected this proposition 84% to 16%. Like Proposition 26, Proposition 27 would have legalized online sports betting for gaming tribes and gaming companies that contract with gaming tribes. Individuals living within the state but outside of Indian land who were 21 years or older would have been permitted to place bets. Because voters rejected both Propositions 26 and 27, sports betting remains illegal in California. Heading into the election, 36 states and the District of Columbia allowed for betting on sports. Supporters and opponents contributed a combined $419 million to campaigns related to Proposition 27, making it this year’s most expensive ballot measure.
• California Proposition 31: Voters approved this proposition 65% to 35%. The measure upheld a law the legislature passed in August 2020 outlawing the sale of flavored tobacco products, with exceptions for hookah tobacco, loose leaf tobacco, and premium cigars. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), the Democratic Party of California, and the Peace and Freedom Party of California supported the measure. The Republican Party of California opposed it. As of 2020, only California and Massachusetts had banned flavored tobacco products.
• Nebraska Initiative 433: Voters approved this initiative 59% to 41%. The measure will increase the state’s minimum wage from $9 to $15 by 2026 and will annually adjust the minimum wage based on the cost of living from 2027 on. The first minimum wage increase will be a $1.50 increase on January 1, 2023, with further increases of $1.50 each on Jan. 1, 2024, Jan. 1, 2025, and Jan. 1, 2026. The last change to the minimum wage in Nebraska was in 2016, when voters approved Initiative 425 to increase the rate from $7.25 to $9.
• Iowa Amendment 1: Voters approved this amendment 66% to 34%. The amendment adds a right to own and bear firearms to the state constitution and requires that a court apply strict scrutiny to any alleged violations of the right. As of 2021, 44 states included a right to firearms in their constitutions.
• Alabama Recompiled Constitution Ratification Question: Voters approved this question 76% to 24%. This question was the final step in ratifying a rewritten version of the Alabama Constitution. Major changes introduced in the rewrite included arranging the constitution into proper articles, parts, and sections, the removal of racist language, and the deletion of duplicative and repealed provisions. Alabama’s current constitution, adopted in 1901, has been amended 977 times and is the longest written constitution in the world.

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A look at winning candidates who completed Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey

Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey offers candidates the opportunity to tell voters directly about their personal and political priorities. More than 6,000 candidates submitted surveys this election cycle. 

Here are some sample responses from candidates who submitted surveys and won last night:

Keith Self (R), U.S. House Texas District 3

• Who are you? Tell us about yourself.
  
  “I am a Texan, graduate of West Point, 25-year Army veteran, 12-year County Judge. I served in Airborne Infantry, Special Forces, and Joint assignments on four continents. My wife and I have lived overseas for a decade in Europe and the Middle East. I was stationed in Germany twice, Belgium, and Egypt. I served in the Pentagon in waived Special Access Programs. In elected office, I presided over the Commissioners Court for 12 years, cutting the tax rate by almost thirty percent, reducing the cost of the pension plan to the taxpayer, putting the checkbook on line first among the 3100 counties across the nation. I am a fiscal, social, and national security conservative.”
  

Shri Thanedar (D), U.S. House Michigan District 13

• Who are you? Tell us about yourself.
  
  “I am a scientist, businessman, husband, father, grandfather, and State Representative. I grew up in abject poverty in India, in a home with no running water with his 8 siblings. With some luck, a good education, and hard work, I immigrated to the United States, became a chemist and a successful entrepreneur that built several businesses.”

Dave Yost (R), Attorney General of Ohio

• A state’s attorney general has many responsibilities. Which of those do you personally consider the most important?
  
  “That’s a bit like asking a parent which of their many responsibilities is most important. The answer is, you must attend to them all. But just as a parent might say that their most important responsibility is to love their children, an attorney general’s most important job is to advocate for and protect Ohio and the rule of law. A myriad of actions is contained in those words.”
  

Peter Neronha (D), Attorney General of Rhode Island

• What do you believe are the core responsibilities for someone elected to this office?
  
  “To be an effective advocate for the people of Rhode Island across a broad range of subject areas, including keeping them safe from crime, holding those would take advantage of them accountable, ensuring their access to affordable and high-quality healthcare, protecting them as consumers, safeguarding the environment, and much more.”

Gabe Evans (R), Colorado House of Representatives District 48

• What areas of public policy are you personally passionate about?
  
  “I’ve sworn three oaths to uphold and defend the Constitution and care for my neighbors. Unfortunately, recent policies from Colorado’s ruling Left have absolutely handcuffed my ability to serve my community. Crime is spiking, cost of living is skyrocketing, and parents’ ability to select a successful education for their kids is in danger. I’m running for House District 48 because I’m a proven leader, and I have two decades of service-based experience necessary to solve the problems that are crippling our families, neighbors, and communities. I stand for freedom, the Constitution, and common sense.”

Elinor Levin (D), Iowa House of Representatives District 89

• What areas of public policy are you personally passionate about?
  
  “I focus on people rather than policy, but, of course I have my own strong opinions. I want to see strong public unions, amply funded-public schools, common sense gun laws, infrastructure to support reliable, high speed internet service and renewable energy across the state. I support farm programs that work towards healthy, long-term stewardship of the land and transparent access to health care, including mental, dental, and vision, for everyone.”

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When will the results be finalized? A look ahead to certification

Now that the ballots are in, states must certify election results before they are considered final and officeholders are sworn in. Guidelines for election certification vary from state to state. Once a state has certified elections, no more challenges may be heard to the election’s outcome.

Delaware will be the first state to certify results, doing so tomorrow, Nov. 10. Twenty-six more states and the District of Columbia have certification dates later in November. Eighteen states have certification deadlines in December, ending with California’s Dec. 16 deadline. Five states do not have specific certification deadlines in state law.

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Welcome to the Wednesday, November 2, Brew. 

By: David Luchs

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. 28 state legislative chambers we’ll be watching next week
2. New York voters to decide several toss-up congressional elections
3. President Joe Biden’s approval rating rises to 44% in October, highest since 2021

28 state legislative chambers we’ll be watching next week

There will be regularly-scheduled elections this year to select representatives for 88 of the nation’s 99 state legislative chambers. Ballotpedia has identified 28 of those chambers in 19 states as battlegrounds. The individual elections for these chambers could affect partisan control, create supermajorities, or end them.

Republicans control 19 of the 28 battleground chambers. Democrats control eight. The final chamber, the Alaska House of Representatives, has a numerical Republican majority, but a multiparty coalition runs the chamber.

In nine states—Arizona, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania—both state legislative chambers are battlegrounds. Maine and Nevada have Democratic legislatures, while Minnesota is one of three states (alongside Alaska and Virginia) where partisan control of the legislature is split.

This year’s battlegrounds list includes five chambers where the majority controls just 51% of seats—the Maine House of Representatives, Michigan House of Representatives, Minnesota Senate, Minnesota House of Representatives, and New Hampshire House of Representatives.

Two of this year’s battleground chambers—the Nevada Assembly and Wisconsin Assembly—have not been battleground chambers at any point in the past decade.

Forty-two of the nation’s 99 state legislative chambers changed partisan control at least once between 2010 and 2021. Accounting for chambers that changed hands multiple times, there were 66 chamber flips during that time period. Forty-four of those flips left Republicans in control after the election, while 20 left Democrats in control and two left control of the chamber split.

The longest-standing majority at stake in a battleground chamber this year is Republican’s three-seat majority in the Arizona House of Representatives. A Democratic win would be the party’s first time controlling the Arizona House since 1966. The shortest-standing majorities at stake are the Republican majorities in the New Hampshire House and Senate, which Republicans took control of in 2020.

The New Hampshire House and Senate were the only two state legislative chambers where partisan control changed in 2020. This was the fewest chamber flips in any even-numbered year since 1928. That year, both chambers were on our list of battleground chambers.

In 2018, the last midterm election year, Ballotpedia identified 22 chambers as battlegrounds. That year, Democrats won control of six battleground chambers from Republicans, and the Alaska House moved from a Democratic-led minority coalition to a multi-partisan minority coalition.

And if you’re interested in more insight and analysis on this year’s state legislative elections, be sure to check out our latest edition of the On the Ballot podcast. Ballotpedia staffers Victoria Rose and Doug Kronaizl sat down with Chaz Nuttycombe of CNAlysis to talk all things state legislatures.

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New York voters to decide several toss-up congressional elections

Today is the 47th day of our 50 States in 50 days series, and we’re featuring New York, the Empire State.

Week One: Pennsylvania, Indiana, South Dakota, Nebraska, North Dakota
Week Two: California, Georgia, Texas, Montana
Week Three: North Carolina, Virginia, New Mexico, Illinois, Idaho
Week Four: Kentucky, Michigan, Arkansas, Minnesota, West Virginia
Week Five: Vermont, Nevada, Wyoming, Arizona, Ohio
Week Six: South Carolina, Iowa, Kansas, Oregon, Tennessee
Week Seven: Colorado, New Jersey, Washington, Alabama, Utah
Week Eight: Mississippi, Maryland, Rhode Island, Oklahoma, Maine
Week Nine: Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Alaska, Hawaii, Florida
Week Ten: Missouri, Louisiana

On the ballot in New York

New York voters will decide one U.S. Senate race and 26 U.S. House races. Seven elections for the U.S. House will be open races where no incumbent is running.

Four state executive positions will be on the ballot: governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, and comptroller.

All 63 seats of the New York State Senate and all 150 seats of the New York State Assembly are up for election this year. Twenty-five state legislative races are open.

Redistricting highlights

New York lost one congressional seat after the 2020 census, going from 27 in 2020 to 26 this year. 

Congressional and state legislative elections will take place under new district lines following the census. Our side-by-side map comparison tool allows you to immediately see what redistricting looks like in your state. Here are the congressional maps in effect before and after the 2020 redistricting cycle in New York:  

To use our tool to view New York’s state legislative maps in effect before and after the 2020 redistricting cycle, visit our New York redistricting page. 

Partisan balance

New York’s current U.S. congressional delegation is made up of two Democratic senators, 19 Democratic U.S. House members, and 8 Republican U.S. House members.

Democrats hold majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. Democrats have a 42-20 majority in the New York Senate and a 106-42 majority in the New York Assembly.

Governor Kathy Hochul is a Democrat, meaning New York has a Democratic trifecta. New York has had a Democratic trifecta since 2019, when Democrats gained control of the state Senate.

New York has a Democratic triplex, meaning the governor, attorney general, and secretary of state are all Democrats.

Seats contested by only one major party

In 2022, 74 state legislative seats in New York, or 35% of all seats up for election, do not have major party competition. When a candidate from only one of either the Democratic or Republican parties runs for a state legislative seat, that party is all but guaranteed to win the seat.

Democrats are running in 90% of all state legislative races. Twenty-two state legislative seats (10% of all state legislative seats) do not have a Democratic candidate, meaning a Republican is likely to win.

Republicans are running in 76% of all state legislative races. Fifty-two seats (24% of all state legislative seats) do not have a Republican candidate, meaning a Democrat is likely to win.

Key races

• Governor: Incumbent Kathy Hochul (D) and Lee Zeldin (R) are running. Hochul succeeded to the office after Andrew Cuomo (D) resigned last year. Cuomo was re-elected 60% to 36% in 2018.
• 18th Congressional District: Incumbent Pat Ryan (D) and Colin Schmitt (R) are running. Ryan took office after winning a special election for the 19th district in August, defeating Marc Molinaro (R) 51% to 49%.
• 19th Congressional District: Josh Riley (D) and Marc Molinaro (R) are running. Molinaro lost the August special election in this district to Pat Ryan 51% to 49%.
• 22nd Congressional District: Francis Conole (D) and Brandon Williams (R) are running. Incumbent Claudia Tenney (R), who represented this district before redistricting, is running in New York’s 24th instead.
• 3rd Congressional District: Robert Zimmerman (D) and George Devolder-Santos (R) are running. Incumbent Tom Suozzi (D) ran for governor instead of seeking re-election.

Ballot measures

New York voters will decide one statewide measure on Nov. 8.

• Proposal 1 would issue $4.2 billion in general obligation bonds for projects related to the environment, natural resources, water infrastructure, and climate change mitigation.

Fifty-five ballot measures appeared on statewide ballots between 1985 and 2021. Thirty-nine ballot measures were approved, and 16 ballot measures were defeated.

Voting

• On Election Day, polls are open from 6:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. An individual who is in line at the time polls close must be allowed to vote.
• New York does not require voters to present identification while voting. However, if a voter does not provide valid identification at the time of registration, he or she must show identification at the polling place when voting for the first time.
• Early voting begins on Oct. 29 and ends on Nov. 6.
• The voter registration deadline was Oct. 14.
• Voters can be eligible to vote absentee for the following reasons: absence from the county (or, if a resident of New York City, the city) on Election Day, temporary or permanent illness or disability (this includes concern about contracting the coronavirus),  acting as the primary caregiver for an ill or disabled person, being in patient care at a Veterans Administration hospital, being incarcerated for offenses other than felonies or awaiting grand jury action. 
• An absentee ballot request must be received by the county board of elections by mail by Oct. 24 or can be submitted in person by the day before Election Day. Absentee ballots must be postmarked by Election Day if returned by mail or returned by the close of polls if returned in person.

Want to learn more about the elections you’ll be voting in this year? Click here to use our Sample Ballot Lookup tool! 

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President Joe Biden’s approval rating rises to 44% in October, highest since 2021

Recent approval polling averages show President Joe Biden (D) at 44% approval, the highest rating he’s received since 2021. Fifty-four percent of voters disapprove of his performance.

Biden last had a 44% approval rating on December 22, 2021. The lowest approval rating he’s received is 38% on July 27, 2022. The highest approval rating Biden has received is 55% on May 26, 2021.

Congress was at 26% approval and 63% disapproval at the end of October. The highest approval rating Congress has received during Biden’s term is 36% on July 16, 2021, and the lowest approval rating it has received is 14% on January 26, 2022.

At the end of October 2018, during the Trump administration, presidential approval was also at 44%, and congressional approval was seven points lower at 19%.

Ballotpedia’s polling index takes the average of polls conducted over the last thirty days to calculate presidential and congressional approval ratings. We average the results and show all polling results side-by-side because we believe that paints a clearer picture of public opinion than any individual poll can provide. The data is updated daily as new polling results are published.

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Welcome to the Wednesday, October 26, Brew. 

By: David Luchs

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. Introduced bills to change I&R ⬆️, enacted bills ⬇️
2. Democratic party committees surpass Republican party committees in cumulative fundraising for first time since June 2021
3. Alaska voters to decide three statewide races using new ranked-choice system

Introduced bills to change I&R ⬆️, enacted bills ⬇️

State lawmakers introduced more bills this year to change their respective state’s initiative process. But fewer of those bills became law than was true in 2021.

The number of legislatively referred ballot measures related to initiatives also increased in 2022 compared to 2020.

We have tracked 231 pieces of legislation regarding ballot measures this year. Seventeen of these bills were passed and signed into law. Most (187) failed or did not come to a vote before legislative sessions adjourned. Last year we tracked fewer bills—226—but 36 were enacted.

One of the bills approved this year could affect signature drives. Florida HB 921, which Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) signed into law on April 6, prohibited out-of-state donors from giving more than $3,000 to support or oppose an initiative during the signature-gathering phase. In June, a federal judge blocked the bill. The judge, Allen Windsor, was appointed by President Donald Trump (R). In 1981, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that a city ordinance in Berkeley, Calif., that placed a $250 limit on individual contributions to ballot measure campaigns was unconstitutional.

In 2021, Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Montana, and Utah passed bills regarding signature drives, such as increasing distribution requirements or prohibiting paid circulators. 

While the number of enacted laws decreased from 2021 to 2022, legislators referred six items regarding the initiative process to the ballot this year, up from four in 2020 and two in 2018.

Two of the measures were put on the ballot during 2022 legislative sessions, and the other three were put on the ballot during 2021 legislative sessions.

1. Arkansas Issue 2: Would require a 60% vote to approve ballot initiatives
2. Arizona Proposition 128: Would allow the Legislature to amend or repeal voter-approved ballot measures that contain provisions that either the U.S. Supreme Court or the Arizona Supreme Court ruled unconstitutional
3. Arizona Proposition 129: Would require citizen-initiated ballot measures to embrace a single subject
4. Arizona Proposition 132: Would require a 60% vote to pass ballot measures to approve taxes
5. Colorado Proposition GG: Would require a table showing changes in income tax owed for average taxpayers in certain brackets to be included in the ballot title for initiated measures

In June, voters in South Dakota rejected Amendment C, which would have required a three-fifths vote of approval for ballot measures that increase taxes or fees or require the state to appropriate $10 million or more in the first five fiscal years.

In 2020, legislatures placed four measures on the ballot to change initiative processes. There was also one initiative in Florida to require that constitutional amendments be passed at two elections. Measures were defeated in Arkansas, Florida, and North Dakota. In Montana, voters approved two amendments to establish the existing signature distribution requirements for citizen-initiated measures as constitutional law.

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Democratic party committees surpass Republican party committees in cumulative fundraising for first time since June 2021

We’re in the home stretch of the election cycle, with less than two weeks to go. Let’s take a final look at party committee fundraising. Six party committees have raised a combined $1.5 billion thus far in the 2022 election cycle. In September, the committees raised $133 million, according to recent filings with the Federal Election Commission. 

• Senate: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) raised 52% more than the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) last month ($28.8 million to $16.9 million).
• House: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) raised 48% more than the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) last month ($27.6 million to $16.9 million).
• National: The Democratic National Committee (DNC) raised 9% more than the Republican National Committee (RNC).
• Overall: The three Democratic committees have raised 1.5% more than the three Republican committees since the start of the 2022 cycle in January 2021 ($776.5 million to $765.2 million).

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Alaska voters to decide three statewide races using new ranked-choice system

Today is the 42nd day of our 50 States in 50 days series, and we’re featuring Alaska, The Last Frontier.

Week One: Pennsylvania, Indiana, South Dakota, Nebraska, North Dakota
Week Two: California, Georgia, Texas, Montana
Week Three: North Carolina, Virginia, New Mexico, Illinois, Idaho
Week Four: Kentucky, Michigan, Arkansas, Minnesota, West Virginia
Week Five: Vermont, Nevada, Wyoming, Arizona, Ohio
Week Six: South Carolina, Iowa, Kansas, Oregon, Tennessee
Week Seven: Colorado, New Jersey, Washington, Alabama, Utah
Week Eight: Mississippi, Maryland, Rhode Island, Oklahoma, Maine
Week Nine: Massachusetts, Wisconsin

On the ballot in Alaska

One of Alaska’s two seats in the U.S. Senate, as well as its seat in the U.S. House, is up for election this year.

Alaska is also holding an election for governor and lieutenant governor.

Nineteen of 20 seats in the Alaska Senate and all 40 seats in the Alaska House of Representatives are up for election.

State Supreme Court Justice Daniel Winfree, first appointed in 2008 by former Gov. Sarah Palin (R), is up for retention election this year. Winfree is one of five justices on the court.

Incumbents Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) and Rep. Mary Peltola (D) are running for re-election. Twenty of the 59 state legislative districts holding elections this year have open seats because an incumbent is not running.

General elections for congressional, state executive, and state legislative office in Alaska use ranked-choice voting. Under this system, voters rank their preferred candidates rather than voting for a single candidate. Voters’ first-choice picks are counted and reported on election night. If a candidate wins more than 50% of first-choice votes, that candidate wins outright. Otherwise, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and their votes redistributed to their voters’ next preference. This process repeats until one candidate gets more than 50% of votes.

Redistricting highlights

Alaska has had one at-large U.S. House district ever since its admission to the Union in 1959. This did not change following the 2020 census.

State legislative elections will take place under new district lines following the census. Our side-by-side map comparison tool allows you to immediately see what redistricting looks like in your state. Here are the state house maps in effect before and after the 2020 redistricting cycle in Alaska:

To view a static version of the post-redistricting state senate district map in Alaska, visit our Alaska redistricting page.

Partisan balance

• Both of Alaska’s U.S. senators—Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan—are Republicans.
• Alaska’s representative in the U.S. House, Mary Peltola, is a Democrat.
• Republicans have a 13-7 majority in the state senate. Although Republicans have a 21-15 numerical majority in the state house with three independents and one nonpartisan member, a minority coalition made up of Democrats, independents, and some Republicans controls the chamber.
• Alaska has a divided government. It has had this status since Bill Walker (I) won the 2014 gubernatorial election and broke the Republican trifecta.
• Both Governor Mark Dunleavy and Attorney General Treg Taylor are Republicans, meaning Alaska has a Republican triplex. The third triplex office, secretary of state, does not exist in Alaska.

Seats contested by only one major party

In 2022, 35 state legislative districts in Alaska, or 59% of the districts holding elections, do not have major party competition. When a candidate from only one of either the Democratic or Republican parties runs in a state legislative district, that party is all but guaranteed to win that district.

Democrats are running in 59% of all state legislative races. Twenty-four state legislative districts, or 41% of those holding elections this year, do not have a Democrat running, meaning a Republican is likely to win.

Republicans are running in 85% of all state legislative races. Nine state legislative districts, or 15% of those holding elections this year, do not have a Republican running, meaning a Democrat is likely to win.

Two state legislative districts, or 3% of those holding elections this year, have neither a Democrat nor a Republican running.

Key races

• U.S. House: Incumbent Mary Peltola (D), Nicholas Begich (R), Sarah Palin (R), and Chris Bye (L) are running. Peltola, Begich, and Palin were the three candidates on the ballot in the August special election for this seat. Peltola won 40% of the first-choice vote in that election, followed by Palin with 31% and Begich with 29%.
• U.S. Senate: Incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R), Kelly Tshibaka (R), and Patricia Chesbro (D) are running. A fourth candidate, Buzz Kelley (R), unofficially withdrew and endorsed Tshibaka. Murkowski, first elected in 2002, voted to convict then-President Donald Trump (R) in his second impeachment trial. Tshibaka is running with an endorsement from Trump. In the August primary, Murkowski won 45% of the vote to Tshibaka’s 39% and Chesbro’s 7%.
• Governor: Incumbent Mike Dunleavy (R), Les Gara (D), Charlie Pierce (R), and Bill Walker (I) are running. This will be Alaska’s first gubernatorial election using the top-four/ranked-choice system. In 2018, Walker, then the incumbent, ran for another term but suspended his campaign in October and endorsed Mark Begich (D). In the August primary, Dunleavy led with 40% of the vote, followed by Gara and Walker with 23% each and Pierce with 7%.

Ballot measures

Alaska voters will decide one statewide measure on Nov. 8.

Ballot Measure 1, the Constitutional Convention Question, asks voters whether the state should hold a constitutional convention. Alaska law requires that a question asking voters whether to hold a constitutional convention be placed on the ballot at least once every 10 years. The last time Alaska held a constitutional convention was in 1956.

Seventy-four ballot measures appeared on statewide ballots between 1986 and 2020. Forty-three ballot measures were approved and 31 were defeated.

Voting

• Polls open at 7 a.m. Alaska Time on Election Day and close at 8 p.m. An individual who is in line at the time the polls close must be allowed to vote.
• Alaska requires that voters present identification, although acceptable forms of ID include some that do not have a photo. The voter ID requirement can be waived if an election official knows the identity of the voter as long as the voter is not a first-time voter who did not provide identification at the time they registered. Click here to see which forms of identification are acceptable.
• Alaska permits early voting. The early voting period opens Oct. 24 and closes Nov. 7.
• Alaska voters can register in person, by mail, or online. The deadline to register is Oct. 9. In Alaska, this means voter registration forms submitted by mail must be postmarked by Oct. 9.
• All voters are eligible to vote absentee in Alaska. The deadline for an election office to receive an application for an absentee ballot is Oct. 29 for an already-registered voter and Oct. 9 for a new voter or a voter requiring an update to their registration. An absentee ballot must be postmarked no later than Nov. 8 to be eligible. You can track the status of your absentee ballot here.

Want to learn more about the elections you’ll be voting in this year? Click here to use our Sample Ballot Lookup tool! 

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Welcome to the Wednesday, October 19, Brew. 

By: David Luchs

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. State legislative competitiveness reaches a decade-high
2. Battleground race will fill Rhode Island’s first open congressional district since 2010

State legislative competitiveness reaches a decade-high

Ballotpedia’s Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report found a decade-high level of competition in the 6,278 state legislative elections taking place this year.

The 2022 State Legislative Competitiveness Report found that the overall rise in competitiveness is due to incumbents facing more primary challenges and the presence of more open seat contests. At the same time, there was a decline in head-to-head matchups between Republican and Democratic candidates in the general election.

We use three criteria to determine state legislative competitiveness:

• Open seats, those where no incumbents are running;
• Incumbents in contested primaries; and,
• Seats with major party competition, those contested between a Democratic and Republican candidate in the general election.

We average these percentages to produce a State Legislative Competitiveness Index, which can range from zero (least competitive) to 100 (most competitive).

This year, the nationwide State Legislative Competitiveness Index is 36.2, beating out 2018 (36.1) and the 2012 post-redistricting cycle (35.2).

Michigan has the highest Competitiveness Index at 62.5, continuing its streak as the most competitive state in every election cycle since 2012.

Massachusetts has the lowest Competitiveness Index at 16.8, continuing its streak as the least competitive state in every election cycle since 2016.

Use the table below to see your state’s Competitiveness Index this year plus a comparison to where it ranked in 2020.

This year’s competitiveness level was driven by activity before the general election, namely the decade-high levels of open seats and incumbents in contested primaries.

There were 1,493 open seats this year, representing 23.8% of all seats up for election. Open seats tend to draw more candidates. 

This decade-high rate of open seats is similar to the rate in 2012, the last post-redistricting election cycle. Incumbents might not run for re-election after a redistricting cycle if the partisan makeup of their district changes or if the incumbent no longer lives in the same district.

Redistricting can also result in entirely new districts, though this is less common. In 2012, New York added one Senate seat. This year, Wyoming added one Senate seat and two House seats.

Term limits can also create open seats. As in 2012, the last post-redistricting year, the percentage of open seats due to term limits this year was lower than the decade average. In both 2012 and 2022, term limits accounted for 17% of all open seats, while in the intervening years, term limits accounted for closer to one-quarter of all open seats.

Incumbents who do seek re-election may face primary challengers.

This year, 1,301 incumbents—511 Democrats and 790 Republicans—ran in contested primaries, 26.8% of all incumbents who were running at the time of their primaries.

Republican incumbents facing primary challengers drove this year’s decade-high rate of incumbents in contested primaries. 

Republicans hold a majority of state legislative seats, so it is expected that the number of Republican incumbents facing primaries would be greater than Democrats.

But 31% of all Republican incumbents running for re-election faced primaries this year, a decade-high percentage and up from 20% in 2020.

For Democrats, the rate was also higher—20%, up from 19% in 2020—but lower than the decade-high rate of 21% in 2012.

The rate of incumbents facing primaries might be partly attributable to redistricting. Incumbents may run against other incumbents in primaries because of new district boundaries.

• This year, 100 incumbents—34 Democrats and 66 Republicans—ran in incumbent v. incumbent primaries, accounting for 11% of all incumbents facing contested primaries. 

• In 2012, 103 incumbents—50 Democrats and 53 Republicans—ran in such primaries, accounting for 9% of all incumbents in contested primaries that year.

While open seats and incumbents in contested primaries powered this year’s rate of competitiveness, don’t expect to see that competitiveness extend into this year’s general elections.

The rate of major party competition is down seven percentage points from 2020, reaching its lowest point since 2016. Both major parties are contesting 58.1% of all seats up for election, meaning the remaining 42.9% have only one of the two major parties on the ballot.

The decrease in major party competition this year came from more Republicans challenging Democrats and fewer Democrats challenging Republicans.

Republicans are contesting 83.3% of seats, a decade-high for the party. Democrats are contesting 74.8% of seats, a decade-low.

Use the link below to read Ballotpedia’s Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report for 2022.

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Battleground race will fill Rhode Island’s first open congressional district since 2010

Today is the 37th day of our 50 States in 50 Days series, and we’re featuring Rhode Island, the Ocean State.

Week One: Pennsylvania, Indiana, South Dakota, Nebraska, North Dakota
Week Two: California, Georgia, Texas, Montana
Week Three: North Carolina, Virginia, New Mexico, Illinois, Idaho
Week Four: Kentucky, Michigan, Arkansas, Minnesota, West Virginia
Week Five: Vermont, Nevada, Wyoming, Arizona, Ohio
Week Six: South Carolina, Iowa, Kansas, Oregon, Tennessee
Week Seven: Colorado, New Jersey, Washington, Alabama, Utah
Week Eight: Mississippi, Maryland

On the ballot in Rhode Island

Rhode Island voters will elect two U.S. Representatives. This year marks the first time since 2010 voters have had to fill an open district. 2nd District U.S. Rep. Jim Langevin (D) is retiring.

The offices of governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, and treasurer are on the ballot.

All 113 state legislative seats are also up for election: 75 in the state House and 38 in the state Senate.

We are also covering local elections in the state’s capital: Providence.

Redistricting highlights

The number of U.S. House districts in Rhode Island remained the same at two following the 2020 census.

Congressional and state legislative elections will take place under new district lines following the census. Our side-by-side map comparison tool allows you to compare each district. Here’s an example of what Rhode Island’s congressional map looked like before and after the 2020 census:

You can interact with our congressional and state legislative map comparison tools by visiting our Rhode Island redistricting page here.

Partisan balance

• Both of Rhode Island’s U.S. Senators—Jack Reed and Sheldon Whitehouse—are Democrats.
• The state also has two Democratic U.S. Representatives: David Cicilline, who is seeking re-election, and Langevin.
• Rhode Island has had a Democratic governor since former Gov. Lincoln Chaffee switched his affiliation from independent to Democratic in 2013.
• Democrats hold a 33-5 majority in the Senate and a 65-10 majority in the House.
• With a Democratic governor and majorities in both legislative chambers, Rhode Island is one of 14 Democratic trifectas, a status it has held since 2013.
• In addition to the governor, Rhode Island has a Democratic attorney general and secretary of state, making it one of 18 states with a Democratic triplex.

Seats contested by only one major party

In 2022, 47 state legislative districts in Rhode Island, or 42% of all districts holding elections, do not have major party competition. When a candidate from only one of either major party runs in a state legislative district, that party is all but guaranteed to win that district.

Democrats are running in 110 of the districts holding elections. Three districts (3%) do not have a Democratic candidate, meaning Republicans will likely win.

Republicans are running in 69 of the districts holding elections, a 64% increase from 2020. Forty-four districts (39%) do not have a Republican candidate, meaning Democrats will likely win.

Key races

• Rhode Island’s 2nd Congressional District: Seth Magaziner (D) faces Allan Fung (R) in the state’s first open congressional district since 2010. Two election forecasters have the race as leaning Democratic and one rates it as a toss-up. The last Republican U.S. House member was Ronald Machtley, who left office in 1995.
• Governor: Gov. Daniel McKee (D) faces Ashley Kalus (R) and three others. This is McKee’s first gubernatorial election. He is seeking a full term in office after assuming the position in 2021 following former Gov. Gina Raimondo’s (D) resignation to become U.S. Secretary of Commerce.

Ballot measures

There are three measures on the ballot in Rhode Island this year.

• Question 1 asks voters to either support or oppose a plan to issue $100 million in bonds to support the University of Rhode Island Narragansett Bay Campus’ marine discipline educational and research needs.
• Question 2 asks voters to either support or oppose a plan to issue $250 million in bonds to construct and renovate public school buildings across the state.
• Question 3 asks voters to either support or oppose a plan to issue $50 million in bonds for educational or recreational purpose. The largest line item in the proposal is $16 million allocated towards municipal resiliency.

All three measures were introduced as part of HB 7123. The state house approved the bill 69-1 with five not voting and the state senate approved it 33-0 with five not voting.

Rhode Island is one of 34 states that does not have the initiative and referendum process. The Legislature can refer measures to the ballot for voter consideration.

One hundred sixty-three measures appeared on statewide ballots between 1985 and 2021. One hundred twenty-eight were approved and 35 were defeated.

Voting

• Polls are open on Election Day from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
• Rhode Island requires voters to present identification while voting. Learn more here.
• Early in-person voting begins on Oct. 19 and ends on Nov. 7.
• Only certain voters are eligible to vote by absentee/mail-in ballot. The deadline to request such a ballot is Oct. 18 and election officials must receive that ballot by Nov. 8. Learn more here.
• The voter registration deadline was Oct. 9. Voters can check their registration status here.

Want to learn more about the elections you’ll be voting in this year? Click here to use our Sample Ballot Lookup tool! 

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