Welcome to the Friday, November 10, Brew.
By: Samuel Wonacott
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Welcome to the 2024 election cycle
- The next Republican presidential primary debate is on Dec. 6
- #FridayTrivia: What was the average number of state trifectas between 1992 and 2022?
Welcome to the 2024 election cycle
The 2023 election cycle isn’t over yet (Louisiana’s runoff elections are Nov. 18), but the next cycle has already begun—the first 2024 filing deadline for state and congressional primary candidates is today, in Alabama. Yes, you read that correctly.
Welcome to the 2024 election cycle.
The first filing deadline for the 2022 cycle was in Texas on Dec. 13, 2021. But this year, at least five states will have filing deadlines for state and congressional candidates before Dec. 13—Alabama, Arkansas (Nov. 14), Illinois (Dec. 4), California (Dec. 8), and Texas (Dec. 11).
Next week, we’ll bring you a full update on 2024 dates and deadlines, including presidential primaries.
Today, let’s take a quick look at what’s on the ballot in 2024 in Alabama and Arkansas.
Alabama’s filing deadline for state, congressional, and presidential primary candidates is today, Nov. 10. Primaries are March 5, with runoffs happening April 16. Alabama has a Republican trifecta. Republicans have a 26-8 majority in the state Senate and a 75-28 majority in the House.
Here are the offices up for election in 2024:
- U.S. House: All seven U.S. House districts are on the ballot. Republicans hold a 6-1 majority in Alabama’s U.S. House delegation.
- State executive: Four seats on the state Board of Education are on the ballot, as is the Public Service Commissioner’s office.
- State supreme court: Five seats are up for partisan election on Nov. 5, 2024. Republicans hold all nine seats on the court. Alabama is one of 33 states holding state supreme court elections in 2024.
- Intermediate appellate court (Court of Civil Appeals and Court of Criminal Appeals): Six seats are up for partisan election. All judges with expiring terms are Republicans.
Although 44 states are holding legislative elections in 2024, Alabama is not among them. Because Alabama’s state legislators all serve four-year terms, the state’s next elections are in 2026. Similarly, Alabama’s next gubernatorial election is in 2026. Eleven states are holding gubernatorial elections in 2024.
Alabama does not allow write-in candidates in primaries. It’s one of eight states where a candidate must get a majority of all votes cast to win the primary. If that doesn’t happen, the top-two vote-getters advance to a primary runoff.
Arkansas’ filing deadline for state, congressional, and presidential primary candidates is Nov. 14. Primaries are March 5, and runoffs, if necessary, are April 7.
Arkansas has a Republican trifecta. Republicans have a 29-6 majority in the state Senate and a 82-18 majority in the House.
Here are the offices up for election in 2024:
- U.S. House: All four House districts are on the ballot. Republicans currently represent all four.
- State legislature: Arkansas is one of 44 states holding state legislative elections in 2024. All 100 House seats and all 18 Senate seats are up for elections.
- State supreme court: Three seats are up for nonpartisan elections in 2024. Arkansas is one of 33 states holding state supreme court elections next year.
- Court of Appeals: Two seats are up for nonpartisan election. The court has 12 judges.
Like in Alabama, Arkansas will hold its next gubernatorial election in 2026.
We’re also covering local elections in Little Rock, the capital of Arkansas. We’re covering elections for the Little Rock Board of Directors and the Little Rock School District.
In Arkansas, candidates must receive a majority of votes in the primary to advance to the general election. If no candidate gets more than 50% of the votes, the top-two vote-getters advance to a runoff.
Click below to read more about 2024 dates and deadlines.
The next Republican presidential primary debate is on Dec. 6
ICYMI, on Wednesday, Nov. 8, five candidates met in Miami, Florida, for the third 2024 Republican presidential debate. That’s down from the seven candidates who participated in the Sept. 27 debate in California.
The following candidates participated:
The candidates who stood on stage in September but not in November are North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who did not meet the qualifying requirements, and former Vice President Mike Pence, who suspended his campaign on Oct. 28.
Former President Donald Trump (R) did not participate in the debate. Trump held a rally in Hialeah, Florida.
In the third debate, Scott spoke for the most time, while Christie spoke for the least. Of the candidates who’ve participated in all three debates, Ramaswamy has accumulated the most speaking time. Haley has accumulated the least.
Click here to read a summary of the candidates’ debate statements.
Each of these candidates met a polling and fundraising threshold to qualify for the debate and signed several Republican National Committee pledges, including one to support the eventual nominee.
Here’s what comes next.
The Republican Party will hold a fourth debate on Dec. 6 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. The University of Alabama will host the candidates, and the qualifying threshold will become stricter. No later than 48 hours before the debate, candidates must show that they’ve received 6% support or more in two national polls, or 6% support in one poll from two separate early-voting states (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and/or Nevada). Candidates must also provide verifiable evidence that they have 80,000 unique campaign donors, with at least 200 unique donors from 20 different states or territories.
In the 2016 election cycle, Democrats held nine debates, and Republicans held 12. In 2020, Democrats held 11.
Click below to read more about the third Republican debate.
#FridayTrivia: What was the average number of state trifectas between 1992 and 2022?
In the Wednesday Brew, we discussed how, following the Nov. 7 elections, there will be 40 state trifectas—23 Republican and 17 Democratic (as well as 10 states with divided governments). That’s the highest number of trifectas since at least 1992.
The only trifecta change in 2023 happened in Louisiana. On Oct. 14, Attorney General Jeff Landry (R) won the Oct. 14 gubernatorial primary outright. When he is sworn into office, Louisiana will go from having a divided government to a Republican trifecta.
What was the average number of state trifectas between 1992 and 2022?