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Divided government at stake in Louisiana’s primary elections

Louisiana voters will decide statewide primary elections Saturday which include nine state executive offices—including the governor’s race—all seats in the state legislature, and four ballot measures. 

The state is currently one of 14 divided governments. Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is running for re-election while Republicans control both the state House and Senate. 

Louisiana uses what is known as a blanket primary, where all candidates in any race appear on the ballot Oct. 12—regardless of party. A candidate can win the election outright by receiving more than 50 percent of the primary vote. If not, then a general election for the top two finishers will be held Nov. 16.

Edwards is the only Democratic governor in the Deep South and the only Democrat holding statewide office in Louisiana. President Trump endorsed two Republicans—U.S. Rep. Ralph Abraham and businessman Eddie Rispone—earlier this month and is scheduled to campaign for both today. Five recent polls showed Edwards with between 45% and 47% support. Three of five recent polls showed Abraham and Rispone in a virtual tie for second place.

Besides governor, the offices of lieutenant governor, secretary of state, attorney general, state treasurer, insurance commissioner, agriculture and forestry commissioner, and eight seats on the state board of elementary and secondary education will also be on the ballot. The six statewide offices other than governor are all currently held by Republicans and all six are running for re-election. The state board of education presently consists of six Republican and two Democratic members.  Five incumbents on that board—four Republicans and one Democrat—are running for another term.

All 39 seats in the state Senate and 105 seats in the state House are up for election in 2019. Republicans hold a 25-14 majority in the Senate and a 60-39 majority in the House, with five independents and one vacancy. There are 94 contested elections this year—more than there were in either the 2011 or 2015 election cycles. These are the first state legislative elections since 2015. 

In order for either party to form a trifecta (control of the governor’s office and both chambers of the legislature), Democrats would need to retain the gubernatorial seat and win majorities in both chambers of the state legislature while Republicans would need to maintain their legislative majorities and pick up the governor’s mansion.

Four statewide constitutional amendments will appear on the ballot. Voters approved all six constitutional amendments in Louisiana in 2018. From 1995 through 2018, an average of five measures per year went before voters in odd-numbered years. During this period, voters approved 75% of the 185 amendments that appeared on the ballot.

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Rep. Lowey (N.Y.) becomes sixth Democratic U.S. House member to announce 2020 retirement

Rep. Nita Lowey (D-N.Y.) announced yesterday that she would not run for re-election in 2020. She was first elected to Congress in 1988 and represents New York’s 17th District. 

Lowey received 88% of the vote over a Reform Party candidate in winning re-election in 2018. She ran unopposed in both the Democratic primary and general election in 2016. That year, Hillary Clinton (D) won the district with 58.6% of the vote. The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for the district was D+7, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district’s results were 7 percentage points more Democratic than the national average.
Lowey becomes the 23rd House member—and sixth Democrat—to announce they would not run for re-election in 2020. Four U.S. Senators—three Republicans and one Democrat—have also announced they would not seek re-election. Fifty-five members of Congress did not run for re-election in 2018. The current partisan composition of the House is 235 Democrats, 197 Republicans, one independent, and two vacancies.

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What’s the tea?

We’re continuing with our What’s the Tea? questions asking Brew readers whether they’ve ever participated or done certain things related to politics and policy—such as attending or speaking at governmental meetings or signing candidate or initiative petitions. 

Continuing with our look at local government: Have you ever attended a meeting of your borough, town, or city council? This could be a city council meeting, a committee meeting, a board of zoning meeting, etc. 

1. Yes
2. No

A new state legislative special election has been added to our list. The special election is for the District 148 seat in the Texas House of Representatives on November 5, 2019. There is no primary, and the filing deadline is on September 4.

June 10, 2019: Sen. Jon Tester endorsed Steve Bullock for president. Most Democrats spent the weekend campaigning in Iowa at party and Pride events.

Share the latest from the campaign trail.

There are eight new candidates running since last week, including three Democrats, three Republicans, and one Libertarian. Nineteen candidates are no longer running. In total, 733 individuals are currently filed with the Federal Election Commission to run for president.

Notable Quote of the Day

“If you want to survive, and you want to get the nomination, you have to kill the bear. [Biden is] the biggest bear in the woods. … If he survives and he gets to Iowa, he’s going to be tough to stop.”

– Hank Sheinkopf, Democratic strategist

Democrats

• The Des Moines Register compiled the key moments from 19 Democratic presidential candidates’ speeches at the state Hall of Fame induction ceremony.

• At least ten of those Democrats—Pete Buttigieg, Cory Booker, John Delaney, Kirsten Gillibrand, Jay Inslee, Beto O’Rourke, Tim Ryan, Bernie Sanders, Marianne Williamson, and Andrew Yang—also attended Capital City Pride Festival events Saturday in Iowa.

• During an interview on Cheddar’s Need2Know podcast, Michael Bennetdiscussed student loans, climate change, and why he prefers the term “pragmatic idealist” to “centrist.”

• Joe Biden will campaign across Iowa Tuesday and Wednesday with stops in Ottumwa, Mount Pleasant, Davenport, and Clinton.

• While campaigning in Iowa, Bill de Blasio said he was making mental health policy one of the centerpieces of his campaign.

• Sen. Jon Tester endorsed fellow Montanan Steve Bullock for president Sunday. He is the tenth Democratic U.S. senator to make an endorsement in the 2020 presidential election.

• Julián Castro spoke with local officials about water filtration systems and food insecurity during a visit to Flint, Michigan.

• Mike Gravel discussed Brexit, economic development in Africa, and regime change in the Middle East in an interview with Cherwell.

• While speaking at an NAACP event in South Carolina, Kamala Harris said her career as a prosecutor would be her greatest asset in a general election against Donald Trump.

• In an interview on CBS News’ Face the Nation, Amy Klobuchar discussed abortion policy and said the Trump administration’s trade policy was harming farmers.

• Wayne Messam called on supporters to contribute $5 to his campaign on his birthday Friday.

• Seth Moulton spoke at the annual party Unity Dinner in Raleigh, North Carolina, Saturday.

• Tom Steyer’s Need to Impeach advocacy group is targeting Eric Swalwell and 11 other Democrats in key leadership and committee positions in a $360,000 campaign calling for the impeachment of Trump.

Republicans

• Donald Trump announced Friday that the U.S. would not impose tariffs on Mexican goods following an agreement with Mexico on border security.

• Bill Weld criticized Trump’s trade and tariffs policies, saying they “have done great harm to our farmers, workers and businesses large and small across America.”

General Election Updates

• The Florida Democratic Party released a summary of its report Saturday detailing the party’s performance in the 2018 election and goals for the 2020 election. Brandon Peters, the state party’s voter protection director, also told party leaders at the annual Leadership Blue 2019 meeting that he was preparing for a recount with a goal of 15,000 lawyers and volunteers across the state.

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What We’re Reading

• The Atlantic: I Helped Obama Win in 2012. Now Trump Is Using the Same Playbook.

• Minneapolis Star Tribune: Trump is counting on rural Wis. economy to help hold the state

• Roll Call: Democrats running for president should run for the Senate. The state Senate.

Flashback: June 10, 2015

Hillary Clinton launched her Instagram with a post referencing her memoir, Hard Choices. Her account now has 4.3 million followers.

June 3, 2019: Larry Hogan announced he will not challenge Donald Trump in the Republican primary in 2020. Kirsten Gillibrand released her LGBT policy platform.

Here’s the latest from the campaign trail.

There are six new candidates running since last week, including one Democrat and one Republican. In total, 744 individuals are currently filed with the Federal Election Commission to run for president.

Notable Quotes of the Day

“You don’t have to be in Des Moines or Manchester to have a viral moment and if that happens you’re in front of millions of people and can raise potentially millions of dollars.”

– Tad Devine, Democratic strategist

“The difference between third and fifth in Iowa could be the difference between staying in and dropping out of [the] race. And if you need to come in third but you came in fifth you’ll say, ‘Shoot, if only I had spent three or four more days in Iowa.’”

– David Plouffe, 2008 Obama presidential campaign manager

Democrats

• Michael Bennet discussed gun violence and advocated passing national background checks in an interview on ABC’s This Week.
• Joe Biden campaigned in Ohio, attending an event commemorating the 50th anniversary of the Stonewall Riots. He said passing the Equality Act would be his first legislative priority.
• Bill de Blasio received his first endorsement from Michael Butler, the mayor of Orangeburg, South Carolina.
• Cory Booker announced his Iowa steering committee, including party leader Jerry Crawford and state Reps. Amy Nielsen and Jennifer Konfrst.
• Steve Bullock discussed his presidential campaign on This Week in Iowa.
• Speaking at the California Democratic Party Convention, Pete Buttigieg said Trump would win again if Democrats played it safe in 2020. “He wins if we look like defenders of the system. He wins if we look like more of the same,” Buttigieg said. “He wins if we look like Washington. And so the riskiest thing we could do is try too hard to play it safe.”
• Julián Castro, Kamala Harris, Jay Inslee, and Bernie Sanders attended the  Immigrant Unity and Freedom Presidential Forum in Pasadena, California, Friday.
• John Delaney said there should be universal healthcare but criticized Medicare for All at the California Democratic Party Convention. “Medicare for All may sound good, but it’s actually not good policy, nor is it good politics,” he said.
• Following her speech at the California Democratic Party Convention, Tulsi Gabbard held a meet and greet in San Francisco.
• Marking the first day of Pride Month, Kirsten Gillibrand released her LGBT policy platform Saturday. She said she would direct the Department of Justice to include gender identity and sexual orientation as protected classes under anti-discrimination laws, federally recognize a third gender on ID cards, codify Obergefell v. Hodges into law, and enact a ban on conversion therapy, among other policies.
• Mike Gravel tweeted the campaign had passed 40,000 donors and needed 25,000  more to qualify for the July debates.
• While speaking at the California Democratic Party Convention, John Hickenlooper denounced socialism. “If we want to beat Donald Trump and achieve big progressive goals, socialism is not the answer,” he said.
• Speaking at the #BigIdeas Forum, Amy Klobuchar promoted expanding voting rights as her idea to improve Americans’ lives.
• Wayne Messam met with Cambridge Rindge & Latin School students in Massachusetts.
• During an interview on CNN, Seth Moulton spoke of his struggles living with PTSD and survivor’s guilt after serving four tours in the Iraq War. He also discussed impeachment, systemic racism, and his critique of Medicare for All in a town hall on the network.
• Beto O’Rourke campaigned in Oklahoma, including a meeting with Democratic officials in Oklahoma City to discuss the severe flooding across the state.
• Tim Ryan discussed the economy and wage growth during a campaign stop in Iowa City. “We cannot be the party that talks about 15 [dollars] an hour,” Ryan said. “[Democrats] need to be the party that talks about $30, $40, $50 an hour.”
• Ryan also participated in a CNN town hall. He said he now believes that Trump should be impeached, opposed a presidential ticket with white men only, and criticized Trump’s tariffs on imports from China.
• During a town hall on CNN, Eric Swalwell said he disagreed with Sanders on extending voting rights to incarcerated individuals and eliminating private insurance.
• Elizabeth Warren held her largest campaign event in Oakland, California, with 6,500 people in attendance. She also said that she would reverse Justice Department policy prohibiting the indictment of a sitting president.
• Marianne Williamson spoke at Santa Monica College’s Emeritus College Friday.
• Andrew Yang posted about Pride Month and his LGBT policy on his campaign website.

Republicans

• Donald Trump will formally launch his re-election campaign with a rally in Orlando, Florida on June 18.
• Bill Weld said in an interview on Real Time with Bill Maher that he did not believe Trump would voluntarily leave office if he lost the 2020 election.

On the Cusp: Tracking Potential Candidates

• Larry Hogan announced Saturday he will not run for president. Instead, he is launching the advocacy group An America United to “support bipartisan, common-sense solutions to create more and better jobs, cut taxes, protect the environment, build our infrastructure, and improve education.”
• John Kasich also discussed his potential candidacy Friday, saying, “There is no path right now for me. I don’t see a way to get there.”

What We’re Reading

• CNN: These Democratic billionaires could help shape the 2020 election
• The New York Times: California Is Now an ‘Early Primary State.’ Democrats Are Grappling With How to Compete.
• Politico: It’s 2 primaries now: Biden and everyone else

Flashback: June 3, 2015

Former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee announced he was running for president, bringing the Democratic field up to four candidates.

On March 19, 2019, Cedar Falls School Board member Eric Giddens (D) and former state Rep. Walt Rogers (R) are running in a special election for the District 30 seat in the Iowa State Senate. The previous officeholder, Jeff Danielson (D), resigned on February 14, 2019. The two candidates were chosen by party conventions rather than primary elections.

Republicans currently hold a 32-17 majority in the chamber. If Rogers wins, Republicans will hold 33 seats. If Giddens wins, Democrats will hold 18 seats.

Still, the race is drawing attention as current and potential candidates for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination are coming to support and campaign for Giddens, trying to earn the favor of state and local party members in advance of the state caucus.

By election day, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Gov. Steve Bullock (D-Mont.), former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX), Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), and Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) will have made appearances at events for Giddens or held their own campaign events in the district. Other 2020 hopefuls, like Sens. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), have sent campaign staff to canvass for Giddens.

Kevin Giken, the executive director of the Iowa Democratic Party, said the candidates coming to the district “shows that they’re committed to actually seeing Iowa Democrats succeed, and giving back resources rather than taking resources.”

Rogers said that the campaign visits would create an opportunity to nationalize the race. He has called his opponent an “avowed socialist” for donating to the campaign of Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.) and said that their race was “sort of a microcosm of what’s happening in the country because I think socialism is going to be an issue in the coming election as well.”

Ten candidates filed paperwork to run in the May 21 primary for four of the nine seats on the Pittsburgh School District Board of Directors in Pennsylvania. The general election is on November 5, and the filing deadline was March 12.

Out of the four seats up for election, District 8 incumbent Kevin Carter was the only board member to file for re-election. He is running unopposed in both the primary and general election. District 2 incumbent Regina Holley, District 4 incumbent Lynda Wrenn, and District 6 incumbent Moira Kaleida did not file for re-election.

Nine candidates filed to run for the three open seats. In District 2, four candidates are running in the Democratic primary. One of those candidates will also appear on the Republican primary ballot. In District 4, three candidates are running in the Democratic primary. Two of those candidates will also appear on the Republican primary ballot. In District 6, two candidates have filed to run in the Democratic primary. In Pennsylvania, school board candidates can file to run as both Democratic and Republican candidates simultaneously.

Pittsburgh Public Schools served 22,359 students during the 2016-2017 school year.