Welcome to the Thursday, May 16, Brew.
By: Mercedes Yanora
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Retirements among Idaho state legislators reach decade low
- Trend of congressional incumbents winning primaries continues
- Republican primary for North Dakota’s At-large District most competitive since 1972
Retirements among Idaho state legislators reach decade low
Yesterday, we looked at what was on the ballot in Georgia on May 21. Today, we are going to look at elections for that same day but in Idaho. The state is holding primaries for congressional, state legislative, and local offices. State judicial offices are also on the ballot but as general elections. One recall election is also scheduled for Tuesday.
U.S. House
Currently, Republicans hold both of Idaho’s congressional districts.
Six candidates are running for those districts, including two Democrats and four Republicans. That’s an average of three candidates per district. An average of four candidates per district ran in 2022, 3.5 in 2020, and 6.5 in 2018.
Here are some other highlights from this year’s filings:
- The total number of candidates running for the U.S. House in 2024 is lower than any other year this decade.
- No seats are open this year, meaning all incumbents are running for re-election. There was one House seat open in 2018, the only year in which a House seat was open since we began gathering data in 2014.
- Four candidates — one Democrat and three Republicans — are running for the 2nd Congressional District, the most candidates running for a seat this year.
- One primary — the 2nd Congressional District Republican primary — is contested this year. One primary was contested in 2022 and three primaries were contested in 2020.
- Second District incumbent Rep. Michael K. Simpson (R) is the only incumbent in a contested primary this year.
- Candidates are running in the Democratic and Republican primaries in both districts, meaning no seats are guaranteed to either party.
Let’s move on to state-level primaries, beginning with the Idaho Legislature.
Idaho Legislature
There are 105 state legislative seats up for election this year: 70 in the House and 35 in the Senate. Across those, six incumbents (two Democrats and four Republicans) did not seek re-election. That’s the fewest number of retirements since Ballotpedia began tracking this data in 2010. From 2010 to 2022, there was an average of 19 retirements per cycle. In 2022, 31 incumbents (six Democrats and 25 Republicans) did not seek re-election.
The total number of contested primaries is higher than the average for election cycles from 2010 to 2022. In 2024, there are 56 contested primaries (four Democratic and 52 Republican) out of a possible 210, a rate of 26.7%. In 2022, the decade-high, there were 71 contested primaries (all Republican) for a rate of 33.8%.
The Idaho Capital Sun’s Mia Maldonado and Clark Corbin said of fundraising in state legislative races: “In early April 2022, Idaho legislative candidates had raised nearly $900,000 ahead of the May primary election … At the end of March this year, candidates had raised more than $3.8 million.” Boise State University political science professor Jaclyn Kettler also noted an increase in independent expenditures. In an Idaho Education News report, Kevin Richert said much of this fundraising is being spent on negative campaigning in contested primaries involving Republicans who either voted for or against school vouchers or races featuring a conservative and more moderate Republican.
State courts
One seat on the five-person Idaho Supreme Court is up for election. Justice G. Richard Bevan is running for re-election without opposition.
Looking at the Idaho Court of Appeals, two justices are running for re-election, both uncontested.
Local primaries
- Municipal: We are covering elections in Ada County – Prosecutor, sheriff, and county commission.
- Mayor Betty Heater recall: An election to recall Mayor Betty Heater is scheduled for Tuesday.
California, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, New York, and Oregon are also holding elections on May 21. To view more upcoming election dates, see our elections calendar.
Trend of congressional incumbents winning primaries continues
Note: Vote percentages below may change as more votes are counted.
ICYMI, here’s a quick recap of what happened this week. The following states held elections on Tuesday, May 14: Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Carolina, and West Virginia.
The New York Times’ Jonathan Weisman said that results in Maryland, Nebraska, and West Virginia “pointed to a desire for moderation, achievement and diversity, and a rejection of the political power of money.” For example, incumbent Republican representatives in Nebraska (2nd Congressional District’s Don Bacon) and West Virginia (1st Congressional District’s Carol Miller) defeated more conservative challengers, while Angela Alsobrooks (D) defeated David Trone (D) in Maryland’s Democratic Senate primary. Trone had spent at least $60 million of his own money on the race.
Tuesday’s results also underscore another trend: no congressional incumbents have lost to primary challengers so far. The only exception is Rep. Jerry Carl (R) in Alabama’s 1st Congressional District, but he lost to another congressional incumbent, Barry Moore (R).
Circling back to the five states that held elections, we covered 10 races as battlegrounds. We also covered Anchorage, Alaska’s mayoral runoff election.
As of this writing, Suzanne LaFrance leads incumbent David Bronson 54.88% to 45.12%. The two advanced to a runoff because neither received more than 45% of the vote in the April 2 general election.
Although the election is nonpartisan, Bronson is a registered Republican and LaFrance is a registered nonpartisan.
Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Maryland
Angela Alsobrooks defeated nine other candidates with 53.8% of the vote. David Trone, the second-place finisher, had 42.0%. Incumbent Sen. Ben Cardin (D) did not seek re-election. Alsobrooks and Larry Hogan (R) will be on the ballot in November.
Democratic primary for U.S. House Maryland District 3
Sarah Elfreth (D) defeated 21 other candidates with 35.4% of the vote. Harry Dunn (D), the second-place finisher, had 24.8%. Incumbent Rep. John Sarbanes (D) did not seek re-election. The Republican primary winner was undecided as of this writing.
Democratic primary for U.S. House Maryland District 5
Incumbent Steny Hoyer (D) defeated three other candidates with 70.6% of the vote. Hoyer and Michelle Talkington (R) will be on the ballot in November.
Democratic primary for U.S. House Maryland District 6
April McClain-Delaney (D) defeated 15 other candidates with 39.1% of the vote. Joe Vogel (D), the second-place finisher, had 26.7%. Incumbent Rep. David Trone ran for U.S. Senate. McClain-Delaney and Neil Parrott (R) will be on the ballot in November.
Democratic primary for Mayor of Baltimore
Incumbent Brandon Scott (D) defeated 12 other candidates with 51.1% of the vote. Sheila Dixon (D), the second-place finisher, had 41.1%. Scott and Shannon Wright (R) will be on the ballot in November.
Republican primary runoff for U.S. House North Carolina District 13
Brad Knott (R) defeated Kelly Daughtry (R) by 81.6 percentage points. Daughtry suspended her campaign on May 2, leaving Knott as the presumptive nominee. Both had advanced to the primary runoff from the March 5 primary. Knott and Frank Pierce (D) will be on the ballot in November.
Republican primary runoff for North Carolina State Auditor
Dave Boliek (R) defeated Jack Clark (R) by 6.2 percentage points. Both advanced to the primary runoff from the March 5 primary, where Clark had 23.2% of the vote to Boliek’s 22.1%. Boliek and incumbent Jessica Holmes (D) will be on the ballot in November.
Republican primary for U.S. Senate West Virginia
Jim Justice (R) defeated six other candidates with 61.8% of the vote. Incumbent Joe Manchin III (D) did not seek re-election. Justice and Glenn Elliott (D) will be on the ballot in November.
Republican primary for Governor of West Virginia
Patrick Morrisey (R) defeated five other candidates with 33.3% of the vote. Moore Capito (R), the second-place finisher, had 27.6%. Incumbent Jim Justice ran for U.S. Senate. Morrisey and Steve Williams (D) will be on the ballot in November.
Republican primary for Attorney General of West Virginia
John B. McCuskey (R) defeated Mike Stuart (R) by 20.4 percentage points. Incumbent Patrick Morrisey ran for governor. McCuskey and Teresa Toriseva (D) will be on the ballot in November.
To view other election results from Tuesday, click below.
Republican primary for North Dakota’s At-large District most competitive since 1972
Five candidates are running in the Republican primary for North Dakota’s At-large Congressional District. Alex Balazs, Rick Becker, Julie Fedorchak, and Cara Mund have received the most media attention and endorsements. Incumbent Kelly Armstrong (R) is running for governor of North Dakota. The primary is June 11, 2024.
According to the Grand Forks Herald, the five-candidate field makes this the most competitive Republican primary since 1972.
The primary follows the Republican Party endorsing convention held on April 6. Becker was not eligible to seek the party endorsement because he ran against U.S. Sen. John Hoeven (R) in 2022 as an independent, winning 19% of the vote. In the first round of voting, Becker’s supporters wrote his name on more than 380 ballots. These spoiled ballots prevented anyone from securing a majority and winning the party endorsement. Fedorchak led Balazs in the first round of voting 44%-29%. Becker told his supporters not to spoil their ballots in the second round of voting. Following the second round, Balazs led Fedorchak 49.7%-49.2%, with only 13 spoiled ballots, but neither had a majority. Fedorchak withdrew and Balazs won the party endorsement.
Republican politicians and associated PACs have endorsed or spent money on candidates other than Balazs. Governor Doug Burgum (R) and Hoeven have endorsed Fedorchak. The Protect Freedom PAC, associated with Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (R), who has endorsed Becker, spent $320,000 on a media buy in support of Becker.
As of the election, North Dakota was one of six states with an at-large House district. The other five are: Alaska, Delaware, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming.