Welcome to the Thursday, May 23, Brew.
By: Mercedes Yanora
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Missouri voters to decide on first constitutional amendment to prohibit ranked-choice voting (RCV)
- New Jersey’s 8th Congressional District’s Democratic primary to take place against the backdrop of Sen. Bob Menendez Sr.’s federal indictment
- Number of incumbents defeated in state legislative primaries less than at this point in 2022
Missouri voters to decide on first constitutional amendment to prohibit ranked-choice voting (RCV)
On May 17, the Missouri Legislature voted to place a constitutional amendment on the ballot that would prohibit non-citizen voting and the use of ranked-choice voting (RCV) in elections. If approved, Missouri would be the first state to enact an RCV ban via ballot measure.
A simple majority vote is required during one legislative session for the Missouri General Assembly to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot. The amendment was introduced as Senate Joint Resolution 78. The Missouri Senate approved it on April 9 by a party-line vote of 24-9. The House approved it 97-43, with two not voting, on May 17.
Senator Ben Brown (R-26), who introduced the amendment, said, “While rank choice voting may appear as [a] modern solution [to] electoral dilemmas, evidence and experience have illuminated a starkly different reality.”
Representative Eric Woods (D-18) said the measure was “wholly unnecessary.”
Missouri is one of five states — Iowa, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Wisconsin being the others — that will have a measure on citizenship voter requirements this November. Republican-controlled legislatures introduced these measures in all five states. Voters approved similar measures in six other states — Louisiana (2022), Ohio (2022), Florida (2020), Alabama (2020), Colorado (2020), and North Dakota (2018). All were approved with at least 62% of the vote.
The constitutional amendment would also provide that each voter has one vote per issue or open seat, prohibit the ranking of candidates, and require primary elections in which only one candidate from each political party, the one who receives the most votes, advances to the general election. These provisions would not apply to any nonpartisan municipal election system that is in effect as of Nov. 5, 2024, such as St. Louis, where approval voting is used.
Thirty-two states have separate-vote requirements for constitutional amendments, including Missouri. In Missouri, an amendment cannot revise more than one article of the state constitution. This constitutional amendment revises multiple sections of one article — Article VIII, which is titled “Suffrage and Elections.”
Nine states have banned the use of RCV statewide. Tennessee was the first in March 2022. Florida, Idaho, South Dakota, Montana, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Mississippi followed in that order.
RCV is used statewide in Alaska, Hawaii, and Maine. Another 14 states contain localities that either use or are scheduled to use RCV in municipal elections. In November, Nevada and Oregon voters will decide on adopting the system, and Alaska voters will decide on repealing the system they approved in 2020.
To read arguments for and against RCV, click here.
As of May 22, 124 RCV-related bills have been introduced in legislatures across the country this year. To explore these bills in detail, view our Election Administration Legislation Tracker here.
Missouri voters will decide three other legislatively referred constitutional amendments that address:
- Allowing the Legislature to pass a law requiring Kansas City to increase funding for the Kansas City Police Department;
- Authorizing a property tax exemption for child care establishments; and
- Authorizing the levying of fees to fund salaries and benefits for law enforcement personnel.
So far, there are four statewide ballot measures in Missouri this year. One hundred and thirty-one ballot measures appeared on statewide ballots in Missouri between 1985 and 2020. Voters approved 83 and defeated 48.
New Jersey’s 8th Congressional District’s Democratic primary to take place against the backdrop of Sen. Bob Menendez Sr.’s federal indictment
Throughout the year, we’ll bring you coverage of the most compelling elections — the battlegrounds we expect to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in governments or to be particularly competitive. You can catch our previous coverage of other battleground races here.
Today, we’re looking at the June 4th Democratic primary for New Jersey’s 8th Congressional District. Three candidates are running in the primary. Two lead in media attention, polls, and campaign finance: Incumbent Robert Menendez Jr. (D) and Ravinder Bhalla (D).
The election will take place against the backdrop of the federal indictment of Menendez’s father, Sen. Bob Menendez Sr. (D-NJ). Following the indictment, the younger Menendez said, “I have unwavering confidence in my father … I strongly believe in his integrity and his values, and look forward to seeing him move past this distraction to continue fighting for our state in the United States Senate.”
In a video launching his candidacy, Bhalla said, “I believe that America is better than the demagogues who seek to divide us or the politicians who strive only to serve themselves,” while an image of both the elder and younger Menendez played. In response, Menendez Jr. said, “While we have advocated tirelessly for Hoboken, it seems the only reason Ravi has entered the race after endorsing me in 2022 and publicly applauding our work this year is because a week after losing control of the city council, he sees no political future for himself in Hoboken.”
Menendez was elected to the U.S. House in 2022 after defeating Marcos Arroyo (R) 72.9% to 24.2%. He won that year’s Democratic primary with 83% of the vote. Menendez said, “I am focused on working every single day to represent my neighbors to the best of my ability. And I will be running for reelection based on that record so I can continue to serve the residents of this district that I love, in stark contrast to those who may run to further their own naked political ambition.”
Bhalla is the mayor of Hoboken, New Jersey, and previously worked as a civil rights attorney. He said he is running because “I think we’re at an inflection point in this country and I think we have a great track record of success in Hoboken in terms of finding solutions. We want to bring that to Washington.”
On March 29, U.S. District Judge Zahid Quraishi issued a preliminary injunction blocking the use of the county line ballot design in New Jersey’s Democratic primaries. According to Politico: ”The county line is New Jersey’s unique primary ballot design where party-backed candidates are placed in a single column or row from the highest office to the lowest. Candidates not endorsed by county parties are often placed less prominently on primary ballots. Candidates who are on the county line have been shown to have a significant electoral advantage.”
Before Judge Quraishi issued the injunction, all three counties in the district endorsed Menendez. Rider University’s Micah Rasmussen said, “What you have at this point is … an incumbent who has all the advantages of incumbency, who also has the support of the county organizations but who’s lost the lines. So I would say Menendez is probably still the front runner. But he’s a diminished front runner.”
Also running in the primary is Kyle Jasey (D).
Number of incumbents defeated in state legislative primaries less than at this point in 2022
In the 10 states that have held primaries so far this year, 32 state legislative incumbents — 2.9% of all incumbents seeking re-election — have lost. That’s less than at this point in 2022, when 54, or 4.8%, of incumbents had lost in primaries.
This report only includes primaries through May 14. Since our last report on May 10, the Nebraska Senate and both legislative chambers in West Virginia held state legislative primary elections on May 14.
- In Nebraska, no incumbents lost.
- In West Virginia, eight Republicans lost.
- This was more than the average of six incumbent losses per cycle from 2010 to 2022.
- A notable incumbent defeat was that of Senate President Craig Blair (R).
An additional two races in West Virginia, both with Republican incumbents, remained uncalled as of May 21.
Republican incumbents have lost at a higher rate than Democrats. Of the 659 Republican incumbents who ran for re-election, 25 (3.8%) have lost to primary challengers. For Democrats, seven of the 460 who ran for re-election (1.5%) have lost.
The last time Democratic incumbents lost at a higher rate was in 2010, when 12 Democrats and nine Republicans had lost at this point in the year.
Of the 10 states that have held primaries so far, two have Democratic trifectas, six have Republican trifectas, and two have a divided government.