Welcome to the Wednesday, May 29, Brew.
By: Ethan Sorell
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Decade-high number of congressional candidates in Montana
- School’s out (or nearly out) for summer… Ballotpedia’s education-focused politics and policy updates are in at Education Writers Association 2024
- Three candidates running in the Democratic primary for Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District
Decade-high number of congressional candidates in Montana
In yesterday’s Brew, we looked at what voters in Iowa can expect to see on their June 4 primary ballots. Four other states –Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota—are also holding primary elections on June 4. Today, let’s look at what voters in Montana can expect to see on their ballots.
U.S. House
Montana gained an additional House district following the 2020 census. The state’s House delegation now has two members, both Republicans On Nov. 12, 2021, the Montana Districting and Apportionment Commission (MDAC) enacted a new congressional map following the 2020 redistricting cycle. The map took effect for Montana’s 2022 congressional elections and included two U.S. House districts. Before 2022, Montana had one congressional district.
Sixteen candidates, including five Democrats and 11 Republicans, are running for Montana’s two U.S. House districts. That’s an average of eight candidates per district, higher than the average of 7.5 candidates who ran in 2022 but the same as the average of eight candidates who ran in 2020 for Montana’s one district at the time.
Here are some other highlights from this year’s filings:
- The 16 candidates running this year are the most in the last 10 years. Fifteen candidates ran in 2022, eight in 2020, seven in 2018, two in 2016, and seven in 2014.
- Rep. Ryan Zinke (R) is running for re-election in the First District. Second District Rep. Rep. Matt Rosendale (R) is not running for re-election and is retiring. Rosendale declared his candidacy for the U.S. Senate but withdrew from the race six days later.
- Thirteen candidates—four Democrats and nine Republicans—are running for the open 2nd Congressional District, the most candidates running for a seat this year.
- Three primaries—one Democratic and two Republican—are being contested this year. Four primaries were contested in 2022, two primaries were contested in 2020, and one was in 2018.
- Candidates are running in the Republican and Democratic primaries in both districts, meaning neither party is guaranteed to win a House race.
U.S. Senate
Montana voters will select primary candidates for one of its two U.S. Senate seats, which incumbent U.S. Sen. Jon Tester (D) has held since 2007. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, and Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated the Nov. 5 general election a toss-up.
- Two candidates are running in the Democratic primary: Tester and Michael Hummert (D).
- Three candidates are running in the Republican primary: Brad Johnson (R), Tim Sheehy (R), and Charles A. Walking Child (R).
Click here to learn more about the U.S. Senate election in Montana.
Montana Legislature
Twenty-three state legislative incumbents (two senators and 21 representatives) face primary challengers this year, representing 32% of the 74 incumbents running for re-election statewide.
- In the 68th House District Republican primary, two incumbents are seeking the nomination following redistricting.
Of the 23 incumbents in contested primaries, two Democrats, and 21 Republicans.
Republicans have held a state government trifecta since 2021, meaning it controls the governorship and both legislative chambers. Montana is one of 23 Republican trifectas nationwide.
In Montana, the primary election winner in state legislative and congressional races is the candidate who receives the highest number of votes cast for that office, even if they do not win a majority of votes cast.
Montana Supreme Court
The terms of two Montana Supreme Court justices expire on Dec. 31, 2024. Candidates for the Montana Supreme Court run in nonpartisan, top-two primaries, meaning the top two vote-getters will advance to the Nov. 5 general election.
Chief Justice Mike McGrath and Justice Dirk M. Sandefur are retiring at the end of their terms. While the court is nonpartisan, McGrath and Sandefur both identified as Democrats before becoming justices.
As of April 2024, four of the court’s seven justices were elected in nonpartisan elections, a Democratic governor appointed two justices, and a Republican governor appointed one justice.
The term of the Montana Supreme Court clerk expires on Jan. 6, 2025. The clerk has to stand for partisan election on Nov. 5, 2024, to remain in office. The primary is June 4, 2024.
Thirty-three states are holding state supreme court elections in 2024. In total, 83 of the 433 seats on state supreme courts are up for election.
School’s out for summer… Ballotpedia’s education-focused politics and policy updates are in at Education Writers Association 2024
School’s out, but Ballotpedia has you covered. We attended the Education Writers Association (EWA) National Seminar for members of the media who cover education at all levels.
At the EWA, Ballotpedia announced new education-related research. Here are some highlights:
- Attendance zone research: Most public school K-12 students in the U.S. attend a school based primarily on their residential address.Ballotpedia’s in-depth attendance zone research delves into these boundaries and the policies governing them. Click here to see our full research on attendance zones.
- Education-Related Ballot Measures in 2024: So far this year, education-related ballot measures are on the ballot in Arkansas, California, Florida, Kentucky, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. And an additional 19 statewide measures may appear on ballots this year. Click here to learn more about education-related ballot measures.
- School Board Recalls: There have been 27 school board recall efforts against 55 board members this year. Nine board members faced recall elections earlier this year. Five retained their seats, and four were removed from office. Two board members with recall efforts started against them resigned. Efforts against 19 board members failed to qualify for the ballot, and efforts against another 19 board members are still underway. For more information about school board recalls, click here.
Subscribe to Hall Pass, Ballotpedia’s weekly newsletter that will keep you plugged into the conversation driving school board politics and education policy. Each week, we’ll bring you a roundup of the sharpest commentary and research from across the political spectrum on education. We’ll also bring you the latest on school board elections and recall efforts, including candidate filing deadlines and election results.
Three candidates running in the Democratic primary for Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District
Throughout the year, we’ll bring you coverage of the most compelling elections–the battlegrounds we expect to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in governments or to be particularly competitive.
Today, we’re looking at the July 30 Democratic primary for Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District. Three candidates are running: Yassamin Ansari (D), Raquel Terán (D), and Duane Wooten (D). Ansari and Terán lead in noteworthy endorsements, polling, and fundraising. Incumbent Ruben Gallego (D) is running for U.S. Senate, leaving the district open.
In 2022, Gallego defeated Jeffrey Zink (R) 77.0%–23.0%.
According to Vox, the open-district race presents candidates with “a rare opportunity: The district is Arizona’s most Democratic region, it is majority Latino and working-class, and it has been represented by Gallego since 2014.” Citing Maricopa County Supervisor Steve Gallardo (D), Axios reported that “Ansari’s biggest strength is her fundraising and Terán’s is her grassroots background. Fundraising matters less in CD3 than in other districts…The low turnout in the district means TV ads, the staple of high-dollar campaigns everywhere, have less impact.”
Ansari’s experience and platform
Ansari is a former Phoenix city council member who earlier worked at the United Nations as a climate policy advisor. Ansari is running on her record, saying she expanded funding for programs serving working families and homeless residents, directed the police department to deprioritize enforcement of abortion-related crimes, and helped pass Phoenix’s first climate action plan.
- Ansari says she is running “because right now, we’re at an inflection point…for far too many people, [the American Dream] is now out of reach.”
Teran’s experience and platform
Terán is a former state legislator, state party chair, and community organizer. Terán is running on her organizing record, saying she was involved in the efforts to recall state Sen. Russell Pearce (R), to defeat Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R) in 2016 and President Donald Trump (R) in 2020, and to elect Democrats to statewide offices in 2022.
- Terán says she will organize voters in the district to help Democrats win statewide races: “Joe Biden won by 10,000 votes. Governor Hobbs won by 15,000. Let’s think positive and increase our votes. Those narrow margins can increase if our district, if a district like Congressional District Three, overperforms.”
Ansari and Terán differ in terms of campaign finance and endorsements
- As of May 21, Ansari had raised $1,408,821, while Terán had raised $856,889.
- One former and four current state legislators and the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees endorsed Ansari.
- U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), U.S. Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), 16 state legislators, and the Working Families Party endorsed Terán.
What’s next?
- All three candidates debated each other on Wednesday, May 22. To watch a full video recording of the debate, click here.
- The primary election is July 30.