Welcome to the Thursday, May 30, Brew.
By: Mercedes Yanora
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Sixteen U.S. House primaries are contested in New Jersey this year — highest this decade
- In Texas House runoffs, House Speaker Dade Phelan wins election, while six other Republican incumbents are defeated
- Potential for the number of ballot measures to be higher than 10-year average – our latest episode of On the Ballot
Sixteen U.S. House primaries are contested in New Jersey this year — highest this decade
Yesterday, we looked at what was on the ballot in Montana on June 4. Today, let’s dive into elections for that same day, but in New Jersey. The state is holding primaries for congressional and local offices. In New Jersey, state legislative and executive elections are held in odd-numbered years.
These will be the first primaries to take place since U.S. District Judge Zahid Quraishi issued a preliminary injunction blocking the use of the county line primary ballot design in New Jersey’s Democratic primaries. According to Politico: “The county line is New Jersey’s unique primary ballot design where party-backed candidates are placed in a single column or row from the highest office to the lowest. Candidates not endorsed by county parties are often placed less prominently on primary ballots. Candidates who are on the county line have been shown to have a significant electoral advantage.” To learn more about the decision, click here.
Why it matters at the national level
U.S. Senate
- Democrats currently have a majority in the U.S. Senate. There are 48 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and three independents, though two independents caucus with the Democratic Party. Another independent, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.), counts toward the Democratic majority for committee purposes.
- Thirty-four of 100 seats are up for election, including one special election. Of the seats up for election in 2024, Democrats hold 20, Republicans hold 11, and independents hold three.
U.S. House
- There are currently eight Democratic and three Republican incumbents from New Jersey. One district is vacant and will be filled at a special election on Sept. 18.
- Republicans have a 217-213 majority in the U.S. House, with five vacancies.
- One of New Jersey’s House districts is a general election battleground: the 7th Congressional District.
Primary elections
U.S. Senate
- Incumbent Bob Menendez Sr. (D) is not running for re-election. He is facing a federal indictment and said, “I am hopeful that my exoneration will take place this summer and allow me to pursue my candidacy as an independent Democrat in the general election.”
- Seven candidates, including three Democrats and four Republicans, are running for the seat.
- Both primaries are contested.
U.S. House
- Fifty candidates, including 25 Democrats and 25 Republicans, are running for New Jersey’s 12 U.S. House districts.
- The 3rd Congressional District is the only open district, meaning the incumbent is not running. That’s the same as in 2022, when one district was open. There were no open districts in 2020, two in 2018, none in 2016, and three in 2014.
- Incumbent Andrew Kim (D-3) is running for the U.S. Senate.
- Nine candidates — five Democrats and four Republicans — are running for the open 3rd District, the most candidates running for a congressional seat in New Jersey this year.
- Sixteen primaries — seven Democratic and nine Republican — are contested this year, the most this decade. Fifteen primaries were contested in 2022 and 2020, respectively.
- Seven incumbents — five Democrats and two Republicans — are facing primary challengers this year. Six incumbents had primaries in 2022. Eight had primaries in 2020.
- Candidates are running in the Republican and Democratic primaries in all 12 districts, meaning neither major party is guaranteed a victory in any of the races.
Local primaries
- Municipal: We are covering elections in Essex and Hudson counties.
- Essex County – Register of deeds and mortgages and sheriff
- Hudson County – County surrogate
New Jersey and four other states — Iowa, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota — are holding primary elections on June 4.
In Texas House runoffs, House Speaker Dade Phelan wins election, while six other Republican incumbents are defeated
Thirteen Republican primary runoffs for the Texas House of Representatives took place on May 28. The runoffs — eight of which had an incumbent on the ballot — were in districts where no candidate won more than 50% of the primary vote on March 5. Six of eight incumbents lost their runoffs, while House Speaker Dade Phelan defeated challenger David Covey by 366 votes. Incumbent Gary VanDeaver also won his runoff.
The runoffs took place against the backdrop of two votes in 2023 that divided the House Republican caucus.
One was the impeachment of Attorney General Ken Paxton (R). The House voted 121-23 to impeach Paxton. Sixty Republicans joined with 61 Democrats in support of impeachment.
In the other vote, the caucus split over removing a provision for school vouchers from an education bill. The vote removing the provision passed 84-63, with 21 Republicans joining 63 Democrats. Governor Greg Abbott (R) supported the measure and said he would oppose legislators who voted against it.
All eight incumbents in the runoffs voted to impeach Paxton. Four voted in favor of school vouchers, three voted against, and Phelan voted “present.”
Notable incumbent losses included:
- DeWayne Burns, Chair of the Land & Resource Management Committee
- Stephanie Klick, Chair of the Public Health Committee
- John Kuempel, Chair of the House Higher Education Committee
Across the primary and primary runoff, 15 Texas House Republicans, or 33% of Republican incumbents facing challengers, lost re-election. This is the highest percentage of primary incumbent losses since 2014, when 30% of Republican incumbents with primary challengers were defeated.
Abbott said of the results, “While we did not win every race we fought in, the overall message from this year’s primaries is clear: Texans want school choice.” According to the Denton Record-Chronicle, the House will have a tentative majority to pass school vouchers.
We identified 10 of the 13 primary runoffs as battlegrounds. Click here for more on those races.
Potential for the number of ballot measures to be higher than 10-year average – our latest episode of On the Ballot
On today’s episode of On the Ballot, Ballotpedia’s weekly podcast, Podcast Host Victoria Rose interviews Ballot Team Managing Editor Ryan Byrne about this year’s trending ballot measures.
Looking at the issue deeper, Byrne and Rose examine weekly averages and how these averages indicate a potential for states to certify up to 165 state ballot measures this year, which would be higher than the 10-year average of 157. They also discuss measures related to: abortion, banning non-citizen voting, electoral reform (think ranked-choice voting and top-two and top-four primaries), and same-sex marriage bans.
Remember, new episodes of On the Ballot drop every Thursday morning. If you’re reading this on May 30, there’s still time to catch this episode on ballot measure trends by subscribing on YouTube or your preferred podcast app!