Welcome to the Tuesday, June 11, 2024, Brew.
By: Ethan Rice
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- What’s on the ballot in South Carolina’s primaries
- Number of incumbents defeated in state legislative primaries less than at this point in 2022
- Louisiana voters will decide on one constitutional amendment in November and four in December
What’s on the ballot in South Carolina’s primaries
South Carolina is holding primaries for congressional and local offices on Tuesday, June 11. Voters will decide primaries for seven U.S. House districts. Currently, Republicans hold six of the seven U.S. House districts, with a Democrat holding the remaining district. All 124 South Carolina House and 46 Senate seats are up for election. Today, let’s look at what voters will see on their ballots. Maine, Nevada, and North Dakota are also holding statewide primaries today.
U.S. House
- Twenty-nine candidates are running for South Carolina’s seven U.S. House districts this year, including 11 Democrats and 18 Republicans. That’s 4.14 candidates per district, more than the four candidates per district in 2022 and the 2.86 candidates in 2020.
- The 3rd Congressional District was the only open district, meaning the incumbent did not file to run. The only other election cycle in the past 10 years when an incumbent did not run for re-election was in 2018. Incumbent Jeff Duncan (R) did not run for re-election because he is retiring from public office.
- Nine candidates—two Democrats and seven Republicans—are running for the open 3rd Congressional District, the most candidates running for a seat in South Carolina this year.
- Nine primaries—four Democratic and five Republican—were contested in 2024, tying with 2018 for the most in the past 10 years.
- Three incumbents—Nancy Mace (R-1st), Joe Wilson (R-2nd), and William Timmons (R-4th)—were in contested primaries.
- Candidates filed to run in the Republican and Democratic primaries in all seven districts.
- Ballotpedia identified South Carolina’s 1st and 4th Congressional District elections as battleground primaries.
State legislature
- South Carolina has 79 contested state legislative primaries in 2024, an increase of 65% from the preceding cycle.
- Twenty-seven of these primaries are for Democrats, up 125% from 2022. This is up 4% from 2020 and 35% from 2016, the last two cycles featuring elections for every state House and Senate seat. Fifty-two primaries are for Republicans, a 44% increase from 36 in 2022.
- Fifty-one incumbents face primary challenges this year, a new high representing 34% of all incumbents running for re-election in the state. The previous high was 42 incumbents in 2016.
- Of the 51 incumbents in contested primaries, 16 are Democrats and 35 are Republicans.
- In total, 348 major party candidates—136 Democrats and 212 Republicans—filed to run.
- Twenty seats in the state legislature are open, meaning no incumbents filed. This is the second-largest number of open seats, behind 24 in 2012.
School boards
- One school district within Ballotpedia’s coverage scope, Horry County Schools, is holding a primary election.
- Ballotpedia’s coverage includes all school districts in the 100 largest cities by population and the 200 largest school districts by student enrollment.
To see more upcoming election dates, see our elections calendar.
Number of incumbents defeated in state legislative primaries less than at this point in 2022
In the 18 states that have held primaries so far this year, 77 state legislative incumbents — 4.0% of all incumbents seeking re-election — have lost. That’s less than at this point in 2022, when 98, or 5.3%, of incumbents had lost in primaries.
Eight more states have held primaries since our last report on May 23, which only included primaries through May 14. Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, and Oregon held state legislative primary elections on May 21, while Iowa, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota held the same on June 4.
- In Georgia, three incumbents—two Democrats and one Republican—were defeated. This is the lowest number of defeats in Georgia since we began gathering this data in 2010.
- Fifteen incumbents, all Republicans, lost re-election in Idaho. This is the second-highest number of defeats since 2010. In all primaries since at least 2010, only Republican incumbents have been defeated.
- In Kentucky, three incumbents were defeated, all Republicans.
- In Oregon, two incumbents were defeated, all Republicans.
- No incumbents lost re-election in Iowa.
- In Montana, two incumbents were defeated, all Republicans.
- Four incumbents, three Democrats, and one Republican, lost re-election in New Mexico.
- In South Dakota, nine incumbents were defeated, all Republicans. This is the highest number of defeats since 2010. According to the Nebraska Examiner, a carbon dioxide pipeline project was the top wedge issue, with some defeated incumbents supporting the pipeline and some challengers running in opposition to the pipeline.
As of June 6, 27 races with incumbents remained uncalled.
Republican incumbents have lost at a higher rate than Democrats. Of the 1,193 Republican incumbents who ran for re-election, 64 (5.4%) have lost to primary challengers. For Democrats, 13 of the 755 who ran for re-election (1.7%) have lost.
Of the 18 states that have held primaries so far, four have Democratic trifectas, 11 have Republican trifectas, and three have a divided government. See our most recent data on incumbents defeated in state legislative elections here.
Louisiana voters will decide one constitutional amendment in November and four in December
The Louisiana State Legislature adjourned its 2024 legislative session on June 3. During the session, the state legislature referred one constitutional amendment to the Nov. 5 ballot and four amendments to the Dec. 7 ballot. Lawmakers considered 42 proposed changes this session.
- In November, voters will decide on a constitutional amendment that would require federal revenue received from alternative and renewable energy production in the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) to be deposited in the Coastal Protection and Restoration Fund. Currently, the fund receives federal revenues received by the state from OCS oil and gas production.
- Two amendments up for a vote on Dec. 7 would change state legislative processes surrounding appropriations bills. One amendment would prohibit the consideration of a conference committee report or senate amendments on an appropriations bill until 48 hours after the bill is distributed to all legislators, and the other amendment would allow the state legislature to extend its regular session by two-day increments, up to a maximum of six days, in order to pass a bill appropriating money.
- Another amendment would increase the Judiciary Commission’s membership to include members appointed by the speaker of the House, the president of the Senate, and the governor. It would also add “malfeasance while in office” to the list of actions for which the state supreme court could pursue disciplinary action against a sitting judge.
- Voters will also decide on an amendment that would remove certain provisions in the state constitution related to the administration of property tax sales and instead authorize the state legislature to provide for property tax sales in state law and make other changes to property tax sale processes.
A total of 112 constitutional amendments appeared on the statewide ballot in Louisiana during even-numbered years from 2000 through 2022. Of the 112 amendments, 77 (68.75%) were approved and 35 (31.25%) were defeated. During even-numbered years, in Louisiana, an average of nine constitutional amendments appeared on the ballot.
The current state constitution was adopted in 1974. From 1978 through 2023, 316 proposed amendments were on the ballot, and 216 (68.35%) were adopted by voters.