Welcome to the Thursday, June 20, Brew.
By: Mercedes Yanora
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Republican state legislative incumbents have lost at a higher rate than Democrats
- Gabe Evans and Janak Joshi sport competing endorsements in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District Republican primary
- On today’s episode of On the Ballot – understanding the gaps in privacy practices within political campaigns and how to narrow them
Republican state legislative incumbents have lost at a higher rate than Democrats
In the 22 states that have held state legislative primaries so far this year, Republican incumbents have lost at a higher rate than Democrats. Of the 1,509 Republican incumbents who ran for re-election, 77 (5.1%) have lost to primary challengers, less than the 6.2% of Republican incumbents defeated in 2022. For Democrats, 16 of the 927 who ran for re-election (1.7%) have lost. That’s also less than the 3% of Democratic incumbents defeated in 2022.
Ninety-three incumbents — 3.8% of all incumbents seeking re-election — have lost. That’s less than at this point in 2022, when 116, or 5.2%, of incumbents had lost in primaries.
Four more states have held primaries since our last report on June 11, which only included primaries through June 4. Maine, North Dakota, Nevada, and South Carolina held state legislative primaries on June 11. This report does not include results from the June 18 primaries (we’ll have that information later this week).
- In Maine, three incumbents—one Democrat and two Republicans—were defeated. This is the highest number of defeats in Maine since we began gathering data in 2010. According to the Maine Morning Star, abortion rights were a key issue in the Democratic primary where Cassie Julia (D) defeated incumbent Rep. Bruce White (D). Legislative absences were a key issues the Republican primary where Guy Lebida (R) beat incumbent Rep. Joseph Galletta (R).
- No incumbents lost re-election in North Dakota and Nevada.
- However, two races, both featuring two incumbents, remained uncalled in North Dakota as of June 18.
- In South Carolina, six incumbents—one Democrat and five Republicans—were defeated. Two incumbents, both in the Senate, advanced to a primary runoff on June 25. If defeated, the total number of defeated incumbents—eight—would be tied for the second-highest since we began gathering data in 2010.
- South Carolina is one of nine states to use primary runoffs.
As of June 19, 20 races with incumbents remained uncalled nationally.
Of the 22 states that have held primaries so far, five have Democratic trifectas, 13 have Republican trifectas, and four have a divided government. See our most recent data on incumbents defeated in state legislative elections here.
Gabe Evans and Janak Joshi sport competing endorsements in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District Republican primary
Throughout the year, we’ll bring you coverage of the most compelling elections — the battlegrounds we expect to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in governments or to be particularly competitive. You can catch our previous coverage of other battleground races here.
Today, we’re looking at the Republican primary for Colorado’s 8th Congressional District on June 25. Two candidates are running: Gabe Evans (R) and Janak Joshi (R). The winner of this primary will face incumbent Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D) in the general election. In the 2022 general election, Caraveo defeated Barbara Kirkmeyer (R) 48.4% to 47.7%. This was the fifth closest U.S. House race in 2022.
In this primary, the Congressional District 8 Republican Assembly and the Colorado Republican Party endorsed different candidates. Candidates in Colorado may qualify for a primary ballot through a petition process or by winning at least 30% of delegates’ votes at an assembly. At the Congressional District 8 Republican Assembly in March 2024, Evans received 61.78% of the vote, and Joshi received 30.37%. A third candidate, Joseph Andujo (R), received 7.85%. Evans won the assembly’s endorsement, and Evans and Joshi advanced to the primary.
The Colorado Republican Party endorsed Joshi in May 2024. The state party said they decided to endorse Joshi due to “his higher likelihood of defeating the incumbent Democrat in the general election.” The state party said Evans’ refusal to complete their questionnaire for eligible candidates also led to their endorsement of Joshi.
According to Colorado Politics Joshi said he was honored to receive an endorsement from the state party: “I know that I answer to the grassroots Republican voters who want to see President Trump and our America First values succeed, instead of answering to the insider politicians and dark money groups who are backing my opponent.” While Evans told Westminster Window, “Grassroots Republicans spoke loud and clear when they gave me a 62% victory at the CD 8 assembly. That’s the endorsement that matters to me, not a handful of Colorado Republican Party bosses who live outside my district.”
Evans was elected to the Colorado House of Representatives in 2022. His professional experience included owning and operating a family farm and working as a police lieutenant. He also served in the U.S. Army and Colorado Army National Guard from 2007 to 2019. Evans said he is running “to help restore pride in this great nation for which I fought.” Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Evans.
Joshi served in the Colorado House of Representatives from 2011-2017. His professional experience included owning a medical clinic and dialysis centers. Joshi said his experience in the state House demonstrates how he would work in Congress: “I’m the only candidate in this race with a proven conservative record to show that actions speak louder than mere words.”
As of June 18, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter and Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rated the general election Toss-up. Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated the general election Lean Democratic.
On today’s episode of On the Ballot – understanding the gaps in privacy practices within political campaigns and how to narrow them
On today’s episode of On the Ballot, Ballotpedia’s weekly podcast, Ballotpedia Podcast Producer Frank Festa interviews Kaushal Kafle, a PhD student in the Department of Computer Science at the College of William and Mary, about privacy practices within political campaigns.
Kafle and his colleagues analyzed the privacy practices of political campaigns through their research of 2,060 campaign websites from the November 2020 general election. Unlike for-profit organizations, campaigns are considered nonprofits and are, therefore, not as heavily scrutinized when it comes to privacy practices.
Festa and Kafle discuss how his research found gaps in privacy practices, including overcollection of private data, failure to provide privacy disclosures, incomplete privacy disclosures when provided, and the inadvertent sharing of data through shared fundraising platforms. Kafle and Festa then discuss the potential for future research, new privacy regulations, and changes to user behavior.
You can learn more about privacy practices within political campaigns by subscribing to On the Ballot on YouTube or your preferred podcast app! This episode will drop Thursday morning.
Listen here