Welcome to the Thursday, July 18, Brew.
By: Mercedes Yanora
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Idaho voters will decide on a ballot initiative for top-four primary and ranked-choice voting system in November
- Tennessee and Wyoming passed anti-red flag law legislation in 2024
On today’s episode of On the Ballot we interview Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, about polling in this year’s most competitive races
Idaho voters will decide on a ballot initiative for top-four primary and ranked-choice voting system in November
The Idaho Secretary of State announced on July 10 that a ballot initiative that would establish top-four primaries and ranked-choice voting for general elections at the congressional, statewide, and county level qualified for the November ballot.
Currently, Idaho’s Democratic Party allows unaffiliated voters to vote in its primary. The state’s Republican Party allows only voters registered with its party to vote in its primaries. Unaffiliated voters can choose to affiliate with a party on Election Day. The primary election winner is the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes, even if he or she does not receive an outright majority of votes.
The initiative would replace the partisan primaries with a top-four primary system where all candidates for an office appear on one ballot. The top four vote-earners advance to the general election. Candidates could choose whether to list their party affiliation.
If Idaho voters approve the initiative, Idaho would have a voting system similar to Alaska. Alaska adopted a top-four primary system and ranked-choice voting in 2020 via ballot measure. An initiative to repeal the system has qualified for the Nov. 5 ballot. Currently, three states use a top-two primary system: California, Nebraska, and Washington.
In Louisiana, all candidates appear on the same ballot regardless of their partisan affiliations. A candidate who wins a simple majority in the primary wins the office outright. If no candidate meets that threshold, the top two finishers advance to the general election, regardless of their partisan affiliations.
Nevada voters will take their second and final vote on a citizen-initiated amendment to adopt top-five primaries and ranked-choice voting in general elections for congressional, gubernatorial, executive, and state legislative elections. Voters first approved the measure in 2022 52.94% to 47.06%. Nevada currently has closed primaries.
South Dakota voters will decide on an initiative to replace partisan primaries with top-two primaries for state executive, state legislative, congressional, and county offices.
Idahoans for Open Primaries is sponsoring the initiative in that state. Reclaim Idaho, Unite America, Former Gov. Butch Otter (R), and former Idaho House Speaker Bruce Newcomb (R) have endorsed the initiative.
Otter said, “The right to vote is one of the most precious rights that Americans have. Every registered voter should have the right to weigh in on choosing our leaders. Independents, including a lot of military veterans, have been excluded from having their say because of the closed GOP primary.”
Idaho Republican Party Chair and former Rep. Dorothy Moon and state Rep. Lance Clow (R) oppose the initiative. Clow said, “Unaffiliated citizens complain they’re not allowed to vote in the Republican Closed primary. If that’s the concern, why complicate our primaries with such a radical change to nominations? A simple initiative to open all primaries would offer a solution and not confuse the electors. So, why complicate it? Their goal is to give the Idaho Democratic Party an increased opportunity to gain traction in Idaho without addressing their own party platform. If you want an open primary, do not sign this complex petition with ulterior motives.”
Idaho voters will also be deciding on a legislatively referred constitutional amendment that would ban non-U.S. citizen voting. Seven other states will be deciding on similar amendments in November.
In total, voters across nine states—Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, and South Dakota—will vote on 12 electoral system related ballot measures this year.
Tennessee and Wyoming passed anti-red flag law legislation in 2024
Tennessee and Wyoming passed laws this year prohibiting the use of extreme risk protection orders (ERPOs), also known as red flag laws. They are the third and fourth states to adopt such laws after Oklahoma in 2020 and West Virginia in 2021. All four states had Republican trifectas at the time of passage.
ERPOs authorize individuals, typically a family member or law enforcement officer, to petition a court to restrict an individual from accessing guns if the court determines the individual presents a danger to others or themselves. Currently, 21 states have some form of a red flag law, with 16 laws passed since 2018. At the time of adoption, one of those states had a Republican trifecta, seven had divided governments, and 13 had Democratic trifectas.
The new legislation in Tennessee and Wyoming expressly prohibits the adoption of ERPO laws and prohibits state agencies and political subdivisions from accepting funding or grants to enact such laws.
Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee (R) signed SB 2763 on May 28. The Senate passed the bill 22-6 on April 11, with two Republicans voting with Democrats against the bill. The House approved the bill 73-24 on April 24, with one Republican voting with Democrats against the bill.
Two months before Tennessee’s anti-ERPO law went into effect, the Biden administration announced the launch of the first-ever National Extreme Risk Protection Order Resource Center, which was created to support the effective implementation of state red flag laws. It also called on states to pass red flag laws and use funding from the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act to assist in implementation.
The sponsor of the House version of Tennessee’s anti-ERPO bill, Rep. Jody Barrett (R), said:
“The right to bear arms is the cornerstone of our freedom and democracy. This law ensures that Tennesseans’ Second Amendment rights are safeguarded against any attempts by the failing Biden administration and local governments to diminish our freedoms. And sends the message that we will not stand idly by as our liberties are threatened.”
After Lee signed the bill, House Democratic Caucus Chair Rep. John Ray Clemmons (D) said:
“The overwhelming majority of Tennessee families want to see more protections for their children in our schools and our neighborhoods, and it’s unfortunate that Governor Bill Lee and this GOP supermajority would actively step in the path of progress toward gun safety legislation.”
Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon (R) signed SF 0109 on March 22. The Senate passed the bill 31-0 on Feb. 27. The House passed the bill 54-8 on March 6, with three Republicans voting with Democrats against the bill.
Wyoming’s new law differs from those in Oklahoma, Tennessee, and West Virginia. It includes a provision that federal red flag laws cannot be implemented or enforced in Wyoming, including by the state or federal judiciary. Representative Bob Nicholas (R) said:
“Never in my history of being in the Legislature have we taken any action that reverses or limits the power of our courts to make decisions and make findings based upon the facts presented in front of them. Never. We’re telling court judges how they have to rule on a particular case.”
On today’s episode of On the Ballot we interview Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, about polling in this year’s most competitive races
On today’s episode of On the Ballot, Ballotpedia’s weekly podcast, Ballotpedia Podcast Producer Frank Festa interviews Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, about polling in this year’s most competitive races.
Festa and Kondik discuss how the recent assassination attempt on Donald Trump (R), Trump’s choice of J.D. Vance (R) as his running mate, and Joe Biden’s (D) debate performance may affect presidential polling. They also explore what the polling says about the Trump-Vance ticket versus the Biden-Harris ticket, abortion ballot measures, and how presidential polling is affecting Kondik’s projections for elections to the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate.
You can learn more about Sabato’s Crystal Ball and its polling by subscribing to On the Ballot on YouTube or your preferred podcast app! This episode will drop Thursday morning.
Listen here