Incumbent Tom Suozzi (D), Michael LiPetri Jr. (R), Matthew Nappo (independent), and Jacob Soto (independent) are running in the general election for New York’s 3rd Congressional District on Nov. 5.

According to AP’s Anthony Izaguirre, Long Island voters, including those in the 3rd District, “have an outsized role in choosing which party controls Congress. Democrats are just a few seats shy of winning a majority in the U.S. House and the island, just a train ride from liberal Manhattan, has emerged as an improbable stage for some of the most contested races this year.”

Following elections in 2022, Republicans represented all four of Long Island’s congressional districts. Izaguirre wrote that Republicans “seized momentum by harnessing suburban backlash over progressive policies in New York City, casting themselves as a dam that can stop the left from swamping Long Island with liberal excess.” In 2024, Suozzi campaigned as a centrist focusing on immigration and border security in the February special election for the 3rd District. Former Incumbent George Santos (R) was expelled from Congress on December 1, 2023. Suozzi won the election, defeating Mazi Pilip (R) 53.9%-45.9%.

Suozzi is campaigning as a centrist in the regular election as well. Izaguirre said this approach fits with New York Democrats “gearing their political strategy toward moderates.” Changes to strategy aren’t unique to Democrats, however. University at Albany Professor Sally Friedman said. “In New York, Republicans and Democrats are campaigning on the hyperlocal issues and focusing on those topics that matter most in their districts. … Suburban and rural areas of the state are typically filled with more centrist and independent voters, so zeroing in on local issues can be a winning strategy.” Suozzi, for example, has emphasized issues such as immigration on X, formerly known as Twitter. According to the LI Herald, “LiPetri’s platform focuses on … decreasing crime, ensuring affordability, and protecting the quality of life for residents.”

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Decision Desk HQ and The Hill, Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, and Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated the district Likely Democratic as of Aug. 13.

The incumbent, Suozzi, represented an earlier version of the district from 2017 to 2023 and was a candidate for governor in the 2022 Democratic primary. He said through bipartisanship “we can offer solutions to secure the border, protect our neighborhoods, and provide real tax relief.”

LiPetri served in the New York State Assembly, representing District 9, from 2019 to 2021. According to the LI Herald, LiPetri “cited his support for law enforcement, advocacy for immigration reform, and efforts to promote affordability on Long Island as some of the main issues he hoped to address during the campaign and if elected.”

Based on second quarter reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Suozzi raised $7.8 million and spent $6.1 million and LiPetri raised $335,502 and spent $139,422. To review all the campaign finance figures in full detail, click here.