What to look for in this year’s state legislative elections

By

Ethan Sorell

Welcome to the Wednesday, Oct. 30, Brew. 

By: Ethan Sorell

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. Ballotpedia is monitoring state government trifectas, veto-proof majorities, and battleground state legislative chambers on election day
  2. 50 states in 25 days–Mississippi and New Jersey
  3. Miami-Dade County, Florida, will elect a sheriff for the first time since 1966

Ballotpedia is monitoring state government trifectas, veto-proof majorities, and battleground state legislative chambers on election day

Across 44 states, there are elections for seats in 85 of the nation’s 99 legislative chambers. Ballotpedia is monitoring state government trifectas, veto-proof majorities, and the outcomes of state legislative battleground elections on Nov. 5. Let’s take a closer look at the historical trends across these key areas and what voters should look for on election day.

There are 23 Republican trifectas, 17 Democratic trifectas, and 10 divided governments. The chart below shows changes in the number of major parties’ trifectas from the previous year.

Ballotpedia has identified 11 chambers whose members are up for elections this year as battlegrounds. Republicans control six battleground chambers, and Democrats control three. The Alaska Senate and the Alaska House of Representatives have a multipartisan coalition, although Republicans have an 11-9 numerical majority in the Senate and a 22-13 numerical majority in the House.

From 2010 to 2023, 41 chambers switched control: 21 did so once, 15 switched control twice, four switched control four times, and one—the New Hampshire House of Representatives—switched control five times. During that same time, 58 chambers did not change partisan hands. 

  • Before the 2010 elections, Democrats controlled 60 of the country’s 99 state legislative chambers, Republicans controlled 37, and neither party controlled the remaining two chambers. After the 2023 elections, Democrats controlled 41 chambers, and Republicans controlled 56. Multipartisan majorities controlled the Alaska Senate and House.
  • Most changes in partisan control came from regularly scheduled elections, but some also came through special elections (Louisiana House in 2010 and Washington Senate in 2017) and party-switching (Louisiana House in 2010 and Mississippi Senate in 2011). In some cases, the party that gained control did not have a numerical majority but controlled the chamber through a bipartisan coalition (i.e., Alaska House in 2016).

According to Ballotpedia’s annual trifecta vulnerability ratings, 11 state government trifectas are vulnerable. Democrats are defending seven vulnerable trifectas, and Republicans are defending four. 

Currently, there are four states with a governor of one party and a veto-proof state legislative majority of the opposing party: Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Vermont. That means the majority in these state’s legislatures can override the opposing party’s gubernatorial vetoes. 

All four states are holding elections for both legislative chambers in 2024, meaning their veto-proof supermajority status could change. In Nevada and Wisconsin, the state legislative elections could result in the majority party having a veto-proof supermajority. 

  • In Nevada, Democrats would need to gain two Assembly seats and one Senate seat to obtain a veto-proof supermajority.
  • In Wisconsin, Republicans would need to gain two Assembly seats and maintain their current majority in the Senate to obtain a veto-proof supermajority.  

Click here for recent examples of legislators using a veto-proof supermajority to override an opposing party’s gubernatorial veto.

Ballotpedia is continually updating our election analyses on state legislative elections. 

  • Incumbents defeated: We are analyzing incumbents defeated across all 5,807 state legislative seats up on election day. This year, 168 incumbents–3.5% of the total who sought re-election–were defeated in primaries. Following the Nov. 5 election results, we’ll be researching how many incumbents were defeated in general elections. 
  • State legislative seats that changed party control: Of the 46 states that held state legislative elections in 2022, Democrats had net gains in 16 states, Republicans had net gains in 21 states, and independent or minor party candidates had net gains in two states. Click here to learn more about the districts that could change partisan in state legislative elections this year.  
  • Major party competition: A seat has major party competition when candidates from both major parties are on the general election ballot. Of the 5,087 seats up for election, 2,221 (38%) are uncontested and have no major party competition. This is roughly average compared to previous years, down from 41% in 2022 but higher than the 34% and 35% in 2018 and 2020, respectively. The remaining 3,586 (62%) seats are contested by both major parties. Click here to learn more about major party competition.
  • Open seats: An open seat is one where no incumbent filed to run, meaning it is guaranteed to be won by a newcomer. Of the 5,087 seats up for election, there are 965 open seats, guaranteeing at least 17% of all seats will be won by newcomers. This was the second-smallest number of open seats since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010. Click here to learn more about open seats in state legislative elections. 

Click here to keep up with Nov. 5 election results, and click keep reading below to continue reading about what to look for at the state legislative level on election day. 

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50 states in 25 days–Mississippi and New Jersey

As election day approaches, we’re continuing to dig into what voters across the country can expect to see on their ballots with our 50 states in 25 days series. Yesterday, we looked at what Kentucky and North Dakota voters can expect to see on their ballots. With two business days between now and the final Friday before the election, let’s continue investigating what’s on the ballot across the country. Today, we’re looking at what’s on the ballot in Mississippi and New Jersey. Both states hold odd-year state legislative elections. 

Mississippi

Let’s start with a look at Mississippi. Here are some key dates and deadlines:

  • The deadline for registering in person or by mail was Oct. 7. Mississippi does not permit early voting. 
  • All polls are open from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. Central Standard Time. Everyone who is in line when the polls close must be allowed to vote. Voters can find polling locations here. 

Mississippi voters will decide one election for the U.S. Senate, four for the U.S. House,  four Mississippi Supreme Court justices, and three Mississippi intermediate appellate court judges.

New Jersey

Next, let’s take a look at New Jersey. 

  • The deadline for registering in person, online, or by mail was Oct. 15. Early voting began Oct. 26 and ends Nov. 3. 
  • All polls are open from 6:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time. Everyone who is in line when the polls close must be allowed to vote. Voters can find polling locations here. 

Here’s what’s on the ballot:

Want to learn more about the elections you’ll be voting in this year? Click here to use our Sample Ballot Lookup tool!

The information above is just a small snippet of the detailed information on Ballotpedia for each state. You can check out our deep dive into West Virginia’s 2024 elections here and New Jersey’s 2024 elections here.

Also, check out our hub page, linked below, for future installments of the series.

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Miami-Dade County, Florida, will elect a sheriff for the first time since 1966

Throughout the year, we’ll bring you coverage of the most compelling elections—the battlegrounds we expect to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in governments or to be particularly competitive.

Today, we’re looking at the Nov. 5 election for Miami-Dade County Sheriff between James Reyes (D) and Rosie Cordero-Stutz (R). The election is the first time Miami-Dade County will elect a sheriff since 1966 when county voters passed a referendum to abolish the position following allegations of corruption. Since then, the director of the Miami-Dade Police Department (MDPD) has managed county law enforcement. The county mayor appoints the MDPD director.

In 2018, Florida voters passed Amendment 10, which required every county in the state to have an elected sheriff. Miami-Dade County was the only county without a sheriff in 2018, and the amendment requires the county to hold an election for the position in 2024. As part of the amendment, the county will hold sheriff elections every four years.

Cordero-Stutz (R) advanced from the Republican primary against 10 other candidates on Aug. 20. Ahead of the primary, Coredero-Stutz and two other candidates–Mario Knapp (R) and Joe Sanchez (R)–led in fundraising, endorsements, and media attention. Cordero Stuz received 24.4% of the vote, Sanchez finished in second with 22.3%, and Knapp finished in third with 14.1%. Click here to read more about the battleground Republican primary. 

Reyes’ platform and experience

Reyes has served as chief of public safety for Miami-Dade County since 2023. He served in the Broward County Sheriff’s Office for 22 years.

Reyes received a bachelor’s degree in criminology from Barry University and has served as the chief of public safety for Miami-Dade County since 2023. Reyes served in the Broward County Sheriff’s Office for 22 years and as the director of the Miami-Dade Corrections and Rehabilitation Department from 2022 to 2023.

Reyes says he would focus on cooperation between government agencies and the sheriff’s office, highlighting his time overseeing the departments of police, fire rescue, and corrections as Miami-Dade’s chief of public safety. On Reyes’ campaign website, he says he would establish a public corruption unit that would “focus on combating corruption across Miami-Dade and maintaining high levels of trust in government.” Reyes says he believes “trust is crucial to maintaining the integrity of law enforcement” and that he would prioritize community engagement and creating connections with the sheriff’s office.

Cordero-Stuz’s platform and experience

Cordero-Stutz received a bachelor’s degree in criminal justice from Marist College and a master’s degree in public administration from Florida International University. Cordero-Stutz is the assistant director of investigative services at the Miami-Dade Police Department. She previously served in the Miami-Dade Police Department for 28 years.

On Cordero-Stutz’s campaign website, she says she would be “committed to strengthening partnerships between law enforcement and community organizations” and that she believes interaction would address local issues. She says she would “establish stringent oversight mechanisms, transparent processes and a zero-tolerance policy against public corruption” and create accountability within the sheriff’s office. Cordero-Stutz says she would focus on funding equipment and training for law enforcement. She said, “Funding is essential for maintaining public safety [and] enabling officers to perform their duties with the highest standards.”

Campaign finance

As of Oct. 28, Reyes raised $257,823 and spent $218,069, and Cordero-Stutz raised $326,756 and spent $264,349.

Miami-Dade County is also holding elections for mayor, clerk of the circuit court and comptroller, property appraiser, public defender, state attorney, supervisor of elections, tax collector, county commission, special districts, circuit court judges, and county court judges. Click here for more on those elections.

To read more about the election for Sheriff in Miami-Dade County, Florida, click the link below. 

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