Election results round three

By

Samuel Wonacott

Welcome to the Friday, November 8, Brew.

By: Samuel Wonacott

Good morning! Election results from Tuesday continue to come in, and we’re here to provide you another update. ICYMI, click here to read Thursday’s Brew for updates on presidential pivot counties, trifectas and triplexes, state executives, mayors, and more. We’ll continue Monday and all next week with more election analyses.

Today, we’ll cover:

  • Federal judicial vacancies with a Republican president and Senate
  • More ballot measure results
  • Congress, trifectas and triplexes
  • State legislatures 
  • school boards
  • Trump and Biden transitions comparison

Federal judicial vacancies with a Republican president and Senate  

When former President Donald Trump (R) takes office on Jan. 20, he will do so with a Republican-controlled U.S. Senate—and, likely, vacancies to fill in the federal judiciary. The president nominates judges to the federal bench, but the U.S. Senate must confirm them through a simple majority vote. During Trump’s first presidency, he appointed 234 Article III judges to the courts. President Joe Biden has appointed 213 judges so far.

Here’s a quick look at current vacancies in the federal judiciary, and what the numbers looked like at the start of Biden’s (D) and Trump’s first terms. 

There are 47 federal judicial vacancies, with pending nominees for 17. The majority of these vacancies—45—are for U.S. District Courts, while two are for U.S. Courts of Appeals. There are also 20 future federal vacancies, with 11 pending nominees for those. At least four of those upcoming vacancies will take place before the end of Biden’s term. 

How Trump and Biden compare: 

  • President Joe Biden (D) inherited 46 Article III federal judicial vacancies when he was inaugurated on Jan. 20, 2021. 
  • When Trump was inaugurated on Jan. 20, 2017, there were 108 vacancies. That was the largest number of vacancies at the beginning of a presidency since 1993, when Bill Clinton inherited 111.

When Biden took office, the U.S. Senate was split 50-50 between Republicans and Democrats (including independents who caucused with Democrats). However, as president of the U.S. Senate, Vice President Kamala Harris (D) could cast the deciding vote to break ties. In her time as vice president, Harris cast tie-breaking votes for six of Biden’s federal judicial nominees. Republicans had a 52-48 U.S. Senate majority in 2017, when Trump took office.  

The chart below shows the Article III judicial appointments by president.

Another update on ballot measures

Here’s an update on the ballot measure results since yesterday. Of the 146 statewide measures on the ballot: 88 (60.2%) were approved, 47 (32.2%) were defeated, and 11 (7.5%) are uncalled. Click here to listen to Ballotpedia Editor in Chief Geoff Pallay and Ballots Team Managing Editor Ryan Byrne discuss ballot measure results and what we can expect in future cycles, on the most recent podcast episode of On the Ballot. 

Marriage and family

Voters in California and Colorado approved measures to repeal constitutional limits on same-sex marriage that were enacted in the 2000s. In Hawaii, voters also repealed language providing that “the legislature shall have the power to reserve marriage to opposite-sex couples.”

From 1998 to 2012, voters adopted constitutional amendments prohibiting same-sex marriage in 30 states. California and Colorado now join Nevada in repealing their amendments.

Education

With the approval of California’s Proposition 2, voters passed all five school and college funding-related measures on the ballot on Nov. 5 in Arkansas, California, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Utah. Proposition 2, which authorizes $10 billion in bonds to fund construction and modernization of public education facilities, passed with57% of the vote.

Local bond measures

In California, voters rejected Proposition 5, which would have decreased the vote threshold from two-thirds (66.67%) to 55% for local bond measures to fund housing projects and public infrastructure. Prop 5 would have applied to at least 15 local ballot measures voters decided on Nov. 5. Since Prop 5 was defeated, results for seven of 15 are currently above the two-thirds threshold. If Prop 5 passed, 14 of 15 would have likely exceeded the 55% threshold.

Minimum wage

Voters in two states approved minimum wage increases. In Alaska, voters approved Ballot Measure 1, 56.6% to 43.4%. It will increase the minimum wage to $15 in 2027, require employers to provide paid sick leave, and prohibit employers from taking adverse action against employees who refuse to attend employer-sponsored meetings regarding religious or political matters. Voters in Missouri also approved a measure increasing the minimum wage to $13.75 per hour in 2025 and to $15 per hour in 2026.

A measure in California that would increase the minimum wage to $18 per hour is too close to call. Unofficial results show 48% in favor and 52% opposed. 

Also on Nov. 5, Massachusetts became the first state since 1996 to reject a measure increasing the minimum wage. The measure would have applied to tipped employees.  

Local ballot measure results

  • In Santa Ana, California, voters rejected a charter amendment to allow noncitizen residents to vote in municipal elections, with 62% voting ‘no.’
  • In Albany, California, voters approved a ballot measure allowing 16- and 17-year-olds to vote in municipal and school board elections, contingent on officials determining that is feasible for the Alameda County Registrar of Voters. The ballot measure received 60% of the vote.
  • Voters in St. Paul, Minnesota, approved a ballot measure to change municipal elections from odd-numbered years to presidential election years starting in 2028. The vote was 60.7% ‘Yes’ to 39.3% ‘No’.

Congress, trifectas, and triplexes

Congress

  • U.S. Senate: There remain three uncalled races: Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. As this edition of the Brew was going to press, the Associated Press called the election for Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seat for David McCormick (R) over incumbent Bob Casey Jr. The New York Times and other outlets had not called the race. McCormick had 48.9% to Casey’s 48.5%.
    • Excluding Pennsylvania, Republicans will so far have a 52-seat majority in the next session.
  • U.S. House: The U.S. House remains uncalled. Since our last update, Laura Gillen (D) defeated incumbent Anthony D’Esposito (R) in the general election for New York’s 4th Congressional District. As of this writing, Republicans have won 213 districts, and Democrats have won 200. Heading into the election, Republicans held a 220-212 majority in the U.S. House with three vacancies.

Trifectas

  • Trifecta statuses in four states remain uncalled as of this writing—Alaska, Arizona, Maine, and New Hampshire. As we reported yesterday, there will be at least 13 Democratic trifectas, 20 Republican trifectas, and nine divided governments. Heading into the election, there were 17 Democratic trifectas, 23 Republican trifectas, and 10 divided governments. 

Triplexes

  • So far, 13 of 15 states whose triplex status were on the ballot on Nov. 5 have been determined. As we reported yesterday, no state triplexes have changed so far. If this remains the case, it would be the first time since 2016 that an election resulted in no triplex status changes. The triplex statuses in Maine and New Hampshire remained undetermined until lawmakers appoint new officeholders for positions like secretary of state. 

State legislatures

There were elections in 85 state legislative chambers. Going into the elections, Democrats held majorities in 33, Republicans in 50, and a power-sharing coalition governed two.

Democrats have retained majorities in 28 chambers including the Minnesota Senate through a special election. Republicans gained a majority in the Michigan House and retained majorities in 45 other chambers. Results in 12 chambers remain uncalled. Of these, five currently have Democratic majorities, five have Republican majorities, and two have power-sharing agreements.

Here’s an update out of Wyoming:

  • There are two Republican factions in the Wyoming House: the Wyoming Caucus and the Wyoming Freedom Caucus. The latter group formed in 2020 to negotiate with House Republican leadership. By 2022, the group had enough members to block bills during a budget session where two-thirds of support was needed, and had gained enough influence for caucus member Rep. Chip Neiman (R) to be elected House majority floor leader. As a result of the Nov. 5 elections, Wyoming Freedom Caucus candidates won at least six additional seats, adding to their gains during the primary and securing a majority for the 2025-2026 legislative session.

And an update out of Pennsylvania: 

  • Heading into the 2024 elections, Democrats had a 102-101 majority. Democrats gained control of the state House in 2022. Republicans had previously controlled the chamber since 2011. Republicans needed to gain at least one seat to gain control of the chamber. As of Nov. 7, the New York Times had called 100 races for Democrats and 101 for Republicans, with one race uncalled. 

School board election results 

We covered 4,435 school board elections on Nov. 5. Here are some quick updates from a few of our school board battleground elections. Subscribe to Hall Pass, our weekly education newsletter, for more detailed school board election results and analysis next week. 

Here’s what the Biden and Trump transition periods looked like in 2016 and 2020

Inauguration Day is in 73 days, and in that time, Trump and his team will prepare for the transition between presidential administrations. That will include launching agency review teams, selecting senior White House staff, identifying nominees for the Cabinet and other key Senate-confirmed positions, training the advisors who will guide nominees through the confirmation process, and developing policy agenda and implementation plans.

On Nov. 7, Trump announced that Susie Wiles would be his White House chief of staff. Wiles, who co-chaired Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign, will be the first woman in the position. 

According to the Associated Press, Trump’s transition team includes Robert F. Kennedy Jr., former Hawaii U.S. Rep. and Democratic presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard (R), J.D. Vance (R), and Trump’s sons Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump. 

Here’s what we know about the last two presidential transitions.

On average across all Cabinet and Cabinet-rank positions, it took former President Barack Obama (D), Trump, and Biden in 2008, 2016, and 2020, respectively, an average of 38 days from Election Day to announce their nominees. Trump announced his first nominees, for U.S. Attorney General and CIA director, on Nov. 18, 2016—10 days after Election Day. In 2020, Election Day fell on Nov. 3, and Biden announced his first group of nominees—for U.S. Secretary of State, U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security, Director of National Intelligence, and U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations—on Nov. 23. 

And here is a look at how long it took for the U.S. Senate to confirm Trump’s and Biden’s nominees following Inauguration Day in 2017 and 2021.

Both Trump and Biden announced key White House officials even earlier. For example, in 2016, Trump selected Reince Priebus as chief of staff on Nov. 13. Biden selected Ron Klain as his chief of staff on Nov. 11. 

With the exception of the chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, which was not Cabinet-rank in Trump’s administration, Trump had named all of his nominees 72 days out.