In the aftermath of the Gubernatorial elections held in 2024, Republicans held 27 governorships and Democrats held 23.
In 2024, 11 elections were held for governor across the country. In 2026, elections for governor will be held in 36 states. Of these seats, Republicans and Democrats each hold 18 seats.
Here’s what this could mean for both parties in the mid-term.
Democrats
Eighteen states with Democratic governors are holding gubernatorial elections in 2026. Among these states, six governors are term-limited, including California, Colorado, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and New Mexico. In every other state, there are either no term-limits, or an incumbent is in their first term and is eligible for re-election. Of the open seats, two were decided by a margin-of-victory (MOV) of less than 10 points in 2022, Kansas (2.1) and New Mexico (6.4).
The map below shows the Democratic-held gubernatorial seats up for election in 2026 by the incumbent’s previous margin of victory.
In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won five of these states: Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Kamala Harris (D) won the remainder of these states except for Maine where electoral votes were split with Harris getting three and Trump getting one. Of the Trump-won states in 2024, Joe Biden (D) won four (Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) in 2020.
The following table shows the ten closest margins by percentage points in the 2022 gubernatorial elections for Democratic winners.
Republicans
Eighteen states with Republican governors are holding gubernatorial elections in 2026. Among these states, 10 governors are term-limited including Alabama, Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Wyoming. In every other state, there are either no term-limits or an incumbent is in their first term and is eligible for re-election. Of the open seats, only Georgia was decided by less than ten percentage points (7.5). Another state, New Hampshire, was within 10 points in 2024, the last time the seat was contested.
The map below shows the Republican-held gubernatorial seats up for election in 2026 by the incumbent’s previous margin of victory. As New Hampshire and Vermont hold gubernatorial elections every two years, the 2024 results are used in place of the 2022 results.
In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won 16 of these states and Kamala Harris (D) won two (New Hampshire and Vermont). Of the Trump-won states, Joe Biden (D) won two in 2020 (Arizona and Nevada).
The following table shows the ten closest margins in the 2022 gubernatorial elections for Republican winners. New Hampshire’s results are the results of the 2024 contest.
