Welcome to the Wednesday, Nov. 27, 2024, Brew.
By: Ethan Sorell
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- California, Massachusetts become first states to reject minimum wage increase ballot measures since 1996
- A look at the closest state legislative races in 2024
- First congressional incumbent announces 2026 retirement
The Daily Brew will take a break for the Thanksgiving holiday. We’ll return to your inboxes on Dec. 2. Thanks for reading, and enjoy the holiday!
California, Massachusetts become first states to reject minimum wage increase ballot measures since 1996
As a part of Ballotpedia’s coverage of ballot measures, we analyze historical trends across a myriad of issues, including abortion, citizenship, electoral systems, criminal justice, and drug policy. Today, let’s turn our attention to ballot measures on minimum wages, an issue in which 2024 voters deviated from historical trends.
Voters approved all 24 measures increasing the minimum wage that appeared on the ballot between 1998 and 2023. Voters in California and Massachusetts broke the trend this year when they rejected proposals to increase minimum wages, the first such outcomes since 1996.
In California, voters rejected Proposition 32, which would have increased the minimum wage to $18 per hour. This was the highest proposed minimum wage ever appearing on a statewide ballot. As of Nov. 21, the vote on the measure was 50.8%- 49.2%.
California’s minimum wage is $16 per hour, the second-highest state rate after Washington ($16.28 per hour). Washington, D.C., has a $17 minimum wage.
Voters in Massachusetts rejected Question 5, which would have increased tipped employees’ wages to meet the state minimum wage. The minimum wage for tipped employees in Massachusetts is $6.75, and the minimum wage for non-tipped employees is $15. Voters rejected the measure 64.4%-36.6%.
The last time voters rejected minimum wage increase ballot measures was in 1996 in Missouri and Montana, with 71% and 56% voting against the measures, respectively.
- The Missouri Minimum Wage Act, also known as Proposition A, would have required all employers to pay employees an hourly minimum wage of $6.25 with a 15 cent annual increase.
- The Montana Increase Minimum Wage Initiative, also known as I-121, would have re-established a minimum wage that would have gradually increased from $4.25 an hour to $6.25 an hour by 2000.
From 1996 to 2024, the average vote on minimum wage measures was 60.1% ‘Yes’ to 39.9% ‘No.’ The measure that received the highest percentage of ‘Yes’ votes (75.9%) was Missouri Proposition B in 2006, which increased the minimum wage to $6.50 per hour.
Voters in Alaska and Missouri approved $15 minimum wage measures, each getting roughly 58% of the vote.
- Missouri voters approved Proposition A, which will increase the minimum wage to $15 in 2026 and enact paid sick leave requirements.
- Alaska voters approved Ballot Measure 1, which will increase the minimum wage to $15 in 2027 and enact paid sick leave requirements. The initiative also prohibits employers from taking adverse action against employees who choose not to attend employer-sponsored meetings on religious or political matters.
Arizona voters rejected Proposition 138, which would have allowed tipped workers to be paid 25% less per hour than the minimum wage if the tips they received were not less than the minimum wage plus $2 for all hours worked. The measure was defeated 74.8%-25.2%.
Ballotpedia provides information on minimum wage ballot measures dating back to 1996. Click on the link below to learn more.
A look at the closest state legislative races in 2024
Forty-four states held elections for 95 of the nation’s 99 state legislative chambers In 2024. In total, 5,807 of the country’s 7,386 legislative seats (79%) were up for election. As a part of our coverage of state legislative elections, we looked at which of those races were the most competitive by vote differential.
Not all races have been called yet, but here’s what we know so far. Thirty-seven races were decided by fewer than 100 votes. Democrats won 21 of these contests, and Republicans won 16. Party control switched for 14 seats. Twelve seats changed from Democratic to Republican, and two seats changed from Republican to Democratic.
- In 2022, 103 races across 31 chambers were decided by fewer than 100 votes—1.64% of the 6,278 legislative races that year. The New Hampshire House had the most such close elections with 36. The Maine and Vermont Houses had the second-most with five.
- In 2020, 30 races across 14 chambers were decided by fewer than 100 votes—0.5% of the 5,875 total state legislative races. The New Hampshire House had the most with 11, followed by the Vermont House with five.
Twenty of the 37 races (54%) took place in the New Hampshire House, where Democrats won 12 and Republicans won eight. The Vermont House had the second-most with eight such races. Together, these two states accounted for 76% of all races decided by fewer than 100 votes.
- According to 2020 census data, the 400 members of the New Hampshire House represent an average of 3,444 people each. In recent elections, this has contributed to the chamber producing more races within a 100-vote margin than chambers with more populated districts. For example, the 24-member New Hampshire Senate is one of 64 state legislative chambers with no races within a 100-vote margin in 2020, 2022, or 2024. Its members represent an average of 57,397 people.
The smallest margin in a 2024 state legislative race occurred in the Maine House of Representatives. The initial result was a tie between Lucas Lanigan (R) and Patricia Kidder (D) in House District 141. A recount found that Lanigan won by one vote.
To learn more about state legislative races decided by fewer than 100 votes, click on the link below.
First congressional incumbent announces 2026 retirement
With the 2024 congressional general elections now in the rearview mirror, it’s time to start looking ahead to the midterms, where some incumbents are already evaluating their futures in Congress.
Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D), who was first elected in 2002, was the first congressional incumbent to announce that he would not seek re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2026.
Additionally, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) resigned from the 118th and 119th Congresses. Rep. Michael Waltz (R) announced that he would resign on Jan. 20, 2025, to serve as national security advisor in Donald Trump’s (R) second presidential term. Ballotpedia does not include incumbents leaving office early in our analysis of incumbents not running for re-election.
Congressional retirements by year
An average of 39 members retired from Congress each election year between 1930 and 2024.
In 2018, 55 incumbents retired from Congress. Forty retired in 2020, 55 in 2022, and 53 this year.
Congressional retirements by month
Between January 2011 and November 2024, a total of 348 members of Congress retired. Out of every election cycle from 2012 to 2024, the 2018 cycle had the most retirements at 55, and the 2020 cycle had the fewest with four. From 2011 to 2024, there were an average of 50 announcements per cycle.
- January had the highest number of announcements during an election year at 47, while August, September, and October had the fewest at one each.
- November had the highest number of announcements during an off year at 41, while June had the fewest at nine.
