Welcome to the Thursday, Jan. 30, Brew.
By: Briana Ryan
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- A crash course on the budget reconciliation process
- 17% of last year’s congressional elections were decided by 10 percentage points or fewer
- The results are in for two battleground special elections
A crash course on the budget reconciliation process
You may have heard a lot in the news lately about how Congress is expected to seek to pass key elements of President Donald Trump’s (R) policy agenda through the budget reconciliation process.
On Jan. 27, Trump said, “In the coming weeks, I’m looking forward to working with Congress on a reconciliation bill that financially takes care of our plan to totally and permanently restore the sovereign border of the United States once and for all.”
Today, we’ll explain what all of this means—how the process works, the history behind it, and what may lie ahead.
How the budget reconciliation process works
Budget reconciliation is a term for the legislative process that bypasses the filibuster to approve a package of legislation in Congress that changes spending, revenues, or the debt limit. A 60-vote threshold is typically needed in the Senate to end debate. Budget reconciliation bills, however, have limits on debate time that prevent filibusters, which means they require a simple 51-vote majority.
The reconciliation process occurs if Congress passes a budget resolution for the fiscal year that gives reconciliation instructions. The provisions of reconciliation bills are crafted by committees or added through amendments. The Congressional Budget Act of 1974 and the budget resolution limit the content of the reconciliation bill. Those limitations are enforced through the Byrd Rule. Through the Byrd Rule, senators can make points of order against any provisions of a budget reconciliation bill by claiming that the provisions
- do not make any changes to spending or revenue, or they make changes that are only incidental to nonbudgetary policy changes;
- do not comply with the budget resolution’s instructions;
- are not in the jurisdiction of the committee that drafted them;
- increase the deficit for a future fiscal year; or
- make changes to Social Security.
Advised by the Senate Parliamentarian, the Vice President as presiding officer of the Senate rules on the points of order, either sustaining them and removing the provisions or letting them remain. A 60-vote majority can overrule the Vice President.
The history behind budget reconciliation
In 1974, President Richard Nixon (R) signed the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act into law to establish a congressional budget process. The act established the Congressional Budget Office, congressional budget committees, and the budget reconciliation process.
Since then, presidents have signed 20 reconciliation bills into law. President Jimmy Carter (D) signed the first reconciliation bill—Omnibus Reconciliation Act of 1980—into law in 1980. The most recent examples of such bills include the following:
In addition to the 20 reconciliation bills signed into law, Congress passed four more that were vetoed. President Bill Clinton (D) vetoed three of those bills, and President Barack Obama (D) vetoed one. The bills that were vetoed:
- Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Reconciliation Act of 2015
- Marriage Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2000
- Taxpayer Refund and Relief Act of 1999
- Balanced Budget Act of 1995
In a recent episode of our weekly podcast, On the Ballot, Ballotpedia policy staff writer Annelise Reinwald explained how the use of the budget reconciliation process has changed over time: “When it was started, it was a lot different than it is now. … It truly was more budgetary, whereas now we see it used more to pass policy initiatives when the majority is slim.”
Looking for even more details and information about budget reconciliation? Click here to listen to the full episode of On the Ballot’s breakdown of the budget reconciliation process.
What’s next
Politico’s Mia McCarthy and Lisa Kashinsky reported on Jan. 28 that Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-La.) “has said he wants a ‘blueprint’ this week on his party’s budget reconciliation bill, which will deal with the border, taxes, energy and funding cuts.”
In future editions of the Daily Brew, we’ll provide updates on reconciliation bills during the second Trump administration.
In the meantime, you can check our comprehensive resource on the budget reconciliation process by clicking the link below. There, you’ll find details on the laws and rules governing the process, summaries, and an analysis of historical use.
17% of last year’s congressional elections were decided by fewer than 10 percentage points
Throughout 2025, we’ll be releasing reports looking back on the 2024 election results. Earlier this week, we wrote about the races where a minor party candidate received more votes than the margin of victory for the winner. With the 119th Congress in full swing, we’re looking back at which U.S. Senate and House of Representatives races had the narrowest margins of victory (MOV) in the 2024 general elections.
Of the 468 congressional elections held in 2024, 80 (17.1%)—11 for the Senate and 69 for the House—were decided by 10 percentage points or fewer. That’s the fewest number of such congressional races since 2016 when there were 42 (9%) races.
Looking at the party affiliation of the winning candidates, Democrats won 52 (65%) of the 80 of the congressional elections decided by 10 percentage points or fewer. That’s the most Democratic wins in such races since we started collecting this data in 2014.
Republicans won 28 (35%) of the 80 congressional elections decided by 10 percentage points or fewer. That’s the fewest Republican wins in such races since 2016 when there were 21 (50%).
Of the 80 congressional races decided by 10 percentage points or fewer, 14 (17.5%)—three for the Senate and 11 for the House—resulted in an incumbent losing re-election.
Of the 468 congressional elections held in 2024, 43 (9.2%)—six for the Senate and 37 for the House—were decided by five percentage points or fewer.
Looking at the party affiliation of the winning candidates, Democrats won 26 (60.5%) of the congressional elections, decided by five percentage points or fewer. That means 2024 is tied with 2022 for the year with the most Democratic wins in such races since we started collecting this data in 2014.
Republicans won 17 (39.5%) of the congressional elections decided by five percentage points or fewer. That’s the fewest Republican wins in such races since 2016 when there were eight (36%)
Of the 43 races decided by five percentage points or fewer, 12 (27.9%)—two for the Senate and 10 for the House—resulted in an incumbent losing re-election.
The closest Senate race in 2024 was in Pennsylvania, where Dave McCormick (R) defeated incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D) by a margin of 0.2 percentage points (48.8% to 48.6%).
The closest U.S. House race was in California’s 13th Congressional District, where Adam Gray (D) defeated incumbent Rep. John Duarte (R) by a margin of 0.09 percentage points (187 votes).
Both Gray and Duarte are no strangers to close races. Back in 2022, the congressional race between Gray and Duarte had the second-narrowest MOV of any House race. In that race, Duarte defeated Gray by 0.17 percentage points (50.2% to 49.8%).
In addition to the race between Gray and Duarte, 18 other House rematches from 2022 were decided by 10 percentage points or fewer in 2024. That’s 24% of all House rematches in 2024. Of those 18 rematches, 17 previously appeared on the 2022 version of this list.
Click on the link to learn about races decided by 10 percentage points or fewer in 2024. Also, watch for our full report on 2024 congressional MOVs next week.
The results are in for two battleground special elections
In the Jan. 28 edition of the Daily Brew, we told you about the two battleground special elections in Florida and Minnesota that day. Today, we’ll discuss the results of the Republican primary for Florida’s 1st Congressional District and the general election for Minnesota Senate District 60.
Starting with the race in Florida, Jimmy Patronis (R) defeated nine other candidates to fill the seat formerly held by Matt Gaetz (R). Gaetz won re-election to the U.S. House on Nov. 5 but resigned on Nov. 13 when President Donald Trump (R) nominated him for attorney general. Gaetz later withdrew from consideration for the nomination on Nov. 21.
Patronis won with 65.7% of the vote, followed by Joel Rudman (R), who received 9.9% of the vote, and Aaron Dimmock (R), who received 6.7% of the vote. Dimmock previously ran against Gaetz in the 2024 Republican primary. In that race, Gaetz defeated him 72.6% to 27.4%.
Patronis will now face off against Gay Valimont (D) and five other candidates in the general election on April 1.
Turning our sights to the midwest, Doron Clark (D) defeated Abigail Wolters (R) 90.9% to 8.7% in the general election to represent Minnesota Senate District 60. The district became vacant when Kari Dziedzic (D) died following a battle with ovarian cancer on Dec. 27. In the 2022 general election, Dziedzic ran unopposed.
Once Clark is sworn into office, Democrats will gain a 34-33 majority in the Minnesota Senate. The Senate is currently evenly split, 33-33, with one vacancy. As a result, the Senate is operating chamber business under a power-sharing agreement until there are 34 votes to end it.