According to Ballotpedia's annual trifecta vulnerability ratings, nine state government trifectas are vulnerable in the 2026 elections. Democrats are defending four vulnerable trifectas and Republicans are defending five. 

Ballotpedia calculates the chances of trifectas breaking and forming by evaluating each trifecta component individually and assessing the chances of them changing control. This assessment considers:

• The race ratings for the gubernatorial election.
• The percentage of seats up for election required to flip control of the upper chamber.
• The percentage of seats up for election required to flip control of the lower chamber.

Highly vulnerable trifectas

The Democratic trifecta in Maine was rated highly vulnerable because fewer than five seats would be required to flip both the Senate and the House. Democrats have a 20-14-1 majority in the Senate and a 75-72-3 majority with one vacancy in the House. Republicans need to gain four seats to win a majority in the upper chamber and four seats to win a majority in the lower chamber.

The Democratic trifecta in Oregon was also rated highly vulnerable because fewer than five seats would be required to flip the state Senate, where Democrats have an 18-12 majority. Democrats have a 37-23 majority in the state House. Republicans need to gain four seats to win a majority in the upper chamber and eight seats to win a majority in the lower chamber.

Maine has had a Democratic trifecta since 2019. Oregon has had a Democratic trifecta since 2007, except for while the House was under split control in 2011 and 2012.

The Republican trifecta in Texas was rated highly vulnerable because fewer than five seats would be required to flip the state Senate, where Republicans have an 18-12 majority with one vacancy. Republicans have an 88-62 majority in the state House. Democrats need to gain four seats to win a majority in the upper chamber and 14 seats to win a majority in the lower chamber.

Texas has had a Republican trifecta since 2003.

Other vulnerable trifectas

Democratic trifectas in New Mexico and Washington were rated somewhat vulnerable. Republican trifectas in Iowa, Montana, and New Hampshire were rated somewhat vulnerable, and the Republican trifecta in Georgia was rated moderately vulnerable.

Potential new trifectas

Ballotpedia also assessed the chances of new trifectas forming in states that are currently under divided government. Possible Democratic trifecta pickups are Kentucky and North Carolina, while possible Republican pickups are Alaska and Kansas. In Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and Wisconsin, either party could establish a state government trifecta.

Additional information

A state government trifecta occurs when one party holds the governorship and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. There are currently 39 state government trifectas: 23 Republican trifectas and 16 Democratic trifectas. The remaining 11 states have a divided government where neither party has a trifecta.

Thirty-six states are holding gubernatorial elections in 2026 and 88 of the country's 99 state legislative chambers will hold elections. Trifecta status is at stake in 46 states. Elections for one or more trifecta offices took place in:

• 21 of the 23 states with Republican trifectas,
• 14 of the 16 states with Democratic trifectas, and
• 11 of the 11 states with divided governments.

Changes in a state government's policy priorities often follow changes in trifecta status, as trifecta control affords a political party the opportunity to advance its agenda. Gaining or breaking trifectas—or in some cases, maintaining divided government—thus often becomes a major priority for a party heading into each election cycle. "Few ever pay attention to [gubernatorial and state legislative] races, but they’re important for [redistricting] and waves can be leveraged for major gains," said then-NBC News reporter Alex Seitz-Wald.

Heading into the 2026 elections, Virginia is the most recent state to become a trifecta, when Democrats won the governorship in 2025. The 2024 elections resulted in Democrats losing two trifectas in Michigan and Minnesota. Republicans neither gained nor lost trifectas in 2024. Between 1992 and 2025, 118 state government trifectas were broken or gained.