Welcome to the Thursday, March 28, Brew.
By: Andrew Kronaizl
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Forty-one governors have given their State of the State addresses so far
- Shomari Figures and Anthony Daniels are running in the Democratic primary runoff in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District
- Learn about election ratings with Inside Elections’ Nathan Gonzales in the latest episode of On the Ballot, our weekly podcast
Forty-one governors have given their State of the State addresses so far
On March 7, President Joe Biden (D) gave his annual State of the Union address to Congress. For a video and transcript of the event, see here. Forty-one governors have given their State of the State addresses as of March 27—19 Democrats and 22 Republicans. Nine more governors are scheduled to deliver their addresses, with eight states having a TBA status and Ohio having an address date of April 10.
All 50 state constitutions mandate that the governor give an annual (or regular) report to the legislature on the state’s condition.
One governor, Jeff Landry (R-La.), was first elected in November 2023 and gave the annual report for the first time. The 40 other governors who addressed their legislatures are incumbents.
We analyzed State of the State transcripts to look at the most common words in Democratic and Republican addresses. While words like “state” (used 1,301 times), “people” (689), and “work” (513) feature prominently in both Democratic and Republican addresses, some words are more common in speeches from specific parties.
The average length of all addresses so far is 4,963 words. This is up from last year’s average of 4,869 words.
Democratic speeches averaged 4,566 words. Democratic governors used the words “housing” (234), “families” (213), and “health” (185) more frequently than their Republican counterparts.
Republican addresses averaged 5,307 words. Republican governors used the words “school” (213), “government” (159),” and “tax” (155) more often than Democratic governors.
We track State of the State addresses every year. To see a list of all current and previous addresses, click on the link below.
Shomari Figures and Anthony Daniels are running in the Democratic primary runoff in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District
Shomari Figures (D) and Anthony Daniels (D) are running in the Democratic primary runoff in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District on April 16. Figures and Daniels were the top two finishers in the 11-candidate primary on March 5, receiving 43.5% and 22.4% of the vote, respectively. The two advanced to a runoff because neither received more than 50% of the vote.
The primary runoff is occurring against the backdrop of an October 2023 decision from a three-judge panel of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Alabama that approved a new congressional district map for Alabama after federal courts found two previous redistricting efforts violated the Voting Rights Act. The October 2023 map redrew the 2nd District to have a 48.7% Black voting-age population, which political commentators say will tilt it towards Democrats. Incumbent Barry Moore (R) is running in the 1st District, leaving the 2nd District open. Moore defeated incumbent Jerry Carl (R) in the March 5 Republican primary.
Daniels is the minority leader of the Alabama House of Representatives. Daniels says he has a record of delivering results as minority leader that sets him apart. Daniels says his record includes working with Republicans in the legislative majority to pass a bill exempting overtime pay from state income tax. Daniels says the opportunity to represent rural Alabamamians like his grandparents inspired him to run. Daniels says he is “the only candidate remaining not bought and paid for by outside special interests that do not represent the people of the second congressional district.”
Figures is a former federal official who has worked in the Obama administration, the U.S. Congress, and as counselor to U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland. Figures says his parents, both of whom served in the state legislature, inspired him to run. Figures says he wants to improve the economic situation in Alabama. He says his federal government experience will help him deliver results. Figures says he is the only candidate who lives in the district: “one thing that was clear in this last election is how strong allegiances are within this district…we had several candidates, including state Rep. Daniels, who do not live in the district.”
State Sen. Merika Coleman, who ran in the Democratic primary and placed fourth, has endorsed Daniels for the runoff. The Alabama Democratic Conference has endorsed Figures.
As of March 19, 2024, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, and Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball each rated the general election Likely Democratic. To read more about other battleground races that Ballotpedia is covering, click here.
Learn about election ratings with Inside Elections’ Nathan Gonzales in the latest episode of On the Ballot, our weekly podcast
On the Ballot, Ballotpedia’s weekly podcast, is taking a deep dive this week into election ratings.
In this episode, Nathan Gonzales, the publisher and editor of the nonpartisan ratings outlet Inside Elections, joins Ballotpedia Podcast Producer Frank Festa to talk about the most competitive races for the House of Representatives this year.
In its most recent House ratings, out at the beginning of this month, Inside Elections had 10 districts as toss-ups. Republicans are looking to hold onto their slim 221-214 majority, as Democrats seek to gain four seats to win control of the House.
This episode of On the Ballot was recorded as a video in addition to a podcast, and you can watch it on our YouTube channel. And remember, new episodes of On the Ballot drop every Thursday morning. If you’re reading this on March 28, there’s still time to subscribe on YouTube or your preferred podcast app and catch this episode on election ratings!