Welcome to the Monday, July 15, Brew.
By: Briana Ryan
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Signatures submitted for Washington initiative prohibiting restrictions on access to natural gas
- Republican incumbents have lost at a higher rate than Democratic incumbents in all even-years but one since 2010
- Republican National Convention starts today
Signatures submitted for Washington initiative prohibiting restrictions on access to natural gas
Supporters of Washington Initiative 2066 submitted 431,063 signatures on July 3 for a ballot initiative that would prohibit restrictions on natural gas access. To qualify for the ballot, 324,516 of the signatures must be valid. Initiative 2066 would be the first Initiative to the People to qualify for the Washington ballot since 2018.
The initiative seeks to repeal changes to House Bill 1589, which the Legislature approved in March 2024. Washington is a Democratic trifecta meaning the party holds the governorship and majorities in the state Senate and state House. The law sets a 2027 deadline for utilities to submit plans to the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission (UTC), showing how much it would cost to electrify the state’s power grid. The UTC creates plans for regulations on electric and natural gas consumption consistent with the state’s greenhouse gas emissions goals.
The Building Industry Association of Washington’s (BIAW) Executive Vice President Greg Lane is the primary sponsor of the initiative. Lane said, “It is very simple. If you have natural gas, this protects you to be able to keep natural gas in your home or your business. And it protects the freedom of every single Washingtonian to have the clean energy of their choice.”
Other initiative supporters include the Washington Hospitality Association, Washington Realtors, and Associated General Contractors. The coalition’s ballot measure committee, Main Street Matters to Washington, raised $771,890 through June 26.
Let’s Go Washington, a conservative group that collected signatures for three initiatives already on the November ballot, also helped gather signatures for this initiative. To read the full text of I-2066, click here.
Climate and Clean Energy Director for Washington Conservation Action Caitlin Krenn said, “I-2066 would take away communities’ choice, jeopardize rebate programs that help families and small business owners afford building upgrades, repeal common-sense measures that make homes and workplaces more energy efficient and healthy, and erode clean air protections.”
Puget Sound Energy, the state’s largest utility with more than 1.2 million electric customers and 900,000 natural gas customers, said it is “deeply concerned about the misinformation that continues to be spread about natural gas” and that “there is no ban on natural gas. PSE has an obligation to serve any customer who wants natural gas.”
According to CBS News, “gas-fueled kitchen stoves have emerged as [an] unexpected cultural and wedge issue.” In July 2023, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to pass the “Gas Stove Protection and Freedom Act,” which would prevent the federal government from banning gas stoves. The U.S. Senate has not voted on the bill.
A U.S. Department of Energy representative told CBS News that the department “is not proposing to ban gas cooking products. Congress and a court consent decree require the Department to conduct an energy efficiency rulemaking on gas and electric cooktops by January 2024. When you look past the misleading rhetoric, you’ll see that these proposals are intended for nothing more than increasing energy efficiency and promoting innovation, without sacrificing the reliability and performance that Americans have come to expect.”
In an April 2023 op-ed, U.S. Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.) wrote, “The U.S. Department of Energy proposed an “energy efficiency standard” for gas cooking products. For those who are unaware, this is a blatant backdoor attempt to ban gas appliances — at least half of gas stove models sold in the United States today would not comply with this regulation.”
If the initiative qualifies for the ballot, it will join three other initiatives sponsored by Let’s Go Washington:
- Initiative 2109 would repeal the capital gains excise tax on individuals’ long-term capital assets with capital gains over $250,000.
- Initiative 2117 would prohibit carbon tax credit trading and repeal provisions of the 2021 Washington Climate Commitment Act (CCA), a state law that provided for a cap-and-invest program intended to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 95% by 2050.
- Initiative 2124 would allow employees and self-employed individuals to opt out of the state’s long-term services and supports trust health care program, known as WA Cares.
Republican incumbents have lost at a higher rate than Democratic incumbents in all even-years but one since 2010
Republican incumbents have lost at a higher rate than Democratic incumbents in all even years, but only one since Ballotpedia began gathering this data in 2010. In 2018, 3.6% of all Democratic incumbents lost re-election compared to 3.3% of Republicans.
Both parties saw a jump in the percentage of incumbents defeated in years following redistricting. The only exception to this trend was in 2018 when a higher percentage of Democratic incumbents lost compared to 2012 and 2022. We are not counting 2024 percentages in this specific part of the analysis since they will likely change as more states hold primaries throughout the year.
There was a larger percentage difference between Democratic and Republican defeats in years when a higher percentage of Republicans were defeated. For example, in 2022, the year Republicans saw the highest percentage of defeats, 6.2% of Republicans lost compared to Democrats’ 3.0%. In 2018, the year Democrats saw the highest percentage of defeats, 3.6% of Democrats lost compared to Republicans’ 3.3%.
Focusing on 2024, we see a similar trend unfold. In the 26 states that have held state legislative primaries so far this year, Republican incumbents have lost at a higher rate than Democrats. Of the 1,652 Republican incumbents who ran for re-election, 84 (5.1%) have lost to primary challengers. If this percentage holds, it would be the second-highest percentage of Republican incumbents defeated in even-year primaries.
For Democrats, 22 of the 1,114 who ran for re-election (2.0%) have lost. If this percentage holds, it would be the lowest percentage of Democratic incumbents defeated in even-year primaries since 2016 (1.8%).
Overall, 106 incumbents—3.8% of all incumbents seeking re-election—have lost. That’s less than at this point in 2022, when 130, or 5.0%, of incumbents had lost in primaries.
Since our last report on June 20, which only included primaries through June 11, Oklahoma, Colorado, New York, and Utah have held elections.
- In Oklahoma, four incumbents—all Republicans—were defeated.
- In Colorado, three incumbents—all Democrats—were defeated. This was the only year since we began gathering this data in 2010 that only Democrats lost.
- In New York, only one incumbent, a Democrat, lost. As of July 11, one election with a Republican incumbent—John McGowan (HD-97)—remained uncalled.
- In Utah, three incumbents—two Democrats and one Republican—were defeated.
- A special note about primaries in Utah: both parties hold nominating conventions and primaries. If an incumbent (or any candidate) loses in a convention, they can qualify for a primary to challenge a convention-nominated candidate through signature gathering. This year, four incumbents lost in conventions on April 13. Two incumbents who lost in conventions ran and lost in the primary on June 25: Joel Briscoe (D) and Jeff Stenquist (R). One incumbent who lost in a convention—Christine Watkins (R)—won in the primary.
As of July 11, 11 races with incumbents remained uncalled nationally.
Of the 26 states that have held primaries so far, seven have Democratic trifectas, 15 have Republican trifectas, and four have a divided government.
Republican National Convention starts today
The Republican National Convention begins today, July 15, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. During the four-day convention, the party will officially select its nominee and adopt a party platform.
Delegates—individuals chosen to represent their state or territory at the convention—will select the party’s president and vice president nominees. In 2024, there are an estimated 2,429 delegates: 2,325 pledged delegates and 104 unpledged delegates. To win the Republican nomination, a presidential candidate must receive support from a majority of delegates—an estimated 1,215 delegates.
Former President Donald Trump (R) became the party’s presumptive nominee after he crossed the majority delegate threshold necessary to win the Republican nomination on March 12. In total, Trump won 2,265 pledged delegates. During the convention, Trump is expected to accept the presidential nomination and name a vice president.
Ahead of the convention, the Republican National Committee Platform Committee adopted the party’s platform on July 8. The platform outlines the official principles, policy stances, and priorities of the Republican Party. It also helps the party’s candidates to shape their messages and the party to hold candidates accountable to the broader party consensus.
Each day of the convention will have a different theme, which includes Make America Wealthy Once Again (Monday), Make America Safe Again (Tuesday), Make America Strong Again (Wednesday), and Make America Great Once Again (Thursday).
To learn more about past Republican National Conventions, check out our coverage from 2020 and 2016.
Democrats will hold their national convention in Chicago, Illinois, from Aug. 19 to Aug. 22.
Keep reading