Welcome to the Wednesday, July 31, 2024 Brew.
By: Ethan Sorell
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Introducing Ballotpedia’s Historic Ballot Measure Fact Book – covering a complete history of ballot measures across all 50 states
- Tennessee legislative elections taking place amidst disagreement over education policy
- Today is Harry Potter’s birthday…let’s see which candidates are celebrating
Introducing Ballotpedia’s Historic Ballot Measure Fact Book
Since Ballotpedia was founded in 2007, we have focused on covering ballot measures and the laws governing them. Sixteen years later, we’ve published nearly 50,000 articles on ballot measures and 500,000+ articles covering politics, policy, and elections.
Now, we are launching our Historic Ballot Measures Fact Book, which documents nearly 200 years of direct democracy in the United States. This ongoing research effort will provide an unparalleled resource for researchers, reporters, and the public on how ballot measures have evolved, the issues they’ve covered, and their role in our civic life.
What better way to introduce Daily Brew readers than with a look at the inventory of ballot measures from Texas, our second largest state with one of the fastest growing populations: It’s a deep dive into Texas and a sneak peak at what to expect as we expand our coverage of the Fact Book to all 50 states.
Ballotpedia’s comprehensive inventory of all Texas ballot measures spans from the first amendment to the current constitution in 1879 to the latest in 2023.
Since 1879, Texans have decided on 708 constitutional amendments. Of those, voters approved 528 (74.6%) and defeated 180 (25.4%).
Here’s a snapshot of notable amendments that have addressed topics such as alcohol and state income tax, prohibitions to women’s suffrage, and direct democracy:
- In 1914, Texans voted 51.7% to 48.3% against an amendment that would have established a state initiative and referendum process.
- Texans defeated two alcohol prohibition amendments in 1887 and 1911 before approving it 53.3% to 46.7% in 1919. The 1887 amendment was defeated 63.1% to 36.9%. The 1911 amendment was defeated 50.7% to 49.3%. Texans approved Proposition 1 54.2% to 47.8% in 1935, which repealed the 1919 prohibition amendment.
- An amendment to provide women the right to vote was defeated 54.1% to 45.9% in May 1919. In the same year, the Texas Legislature ratified the 19th amendment on June 28, which was officially added to the U.S. Constitution on Aug. 18, 1920.
- An amendment to repeal the state poll tax was defeated 56.6% to 43.4% in 1963. The 24th amendment to the U.S. Constitution was ratified on Jan. 23, 1964, prohibiting federal and state poll taxes. In 1966, Texans voted 58.6% to 41.4% in favor of Proposition 7, which officially repealed the inoperative poll tax language.
- In 1993, Texans approved Proposition 4 69.3% to 30.7%, prohibiting a state personal income tax without voter approval and directing income tax revenue toward education. In 2019, voters affirmed their stance by approving Proposition 4 74.4% to 25.6%. The 2019 amendment added a prohibition on levying a state income tax on individuals to the state constitution.
The chart below shows the total number of ballot measures decided in each decade. An average of 44 measures were decided on in each decade between 1870 and 2020. The average approval rate was 72%.
- The decade with the highest approval rate–besides the 1870s when Texas only decided one ballot measure–was the 2000s, which featured 79 measures. Seventy-seven (97.5%) were approved and two (2.5%) were defeated.
- The decade with the lowest approval rating was the 1910s. There were 32 amendments on the ballot. Nine (28.1%) were approved, and 23 (71.9%) were defeated.
Only the Texas Legislature can put constitutional amendments on the ballot. Two-thirds of each chamber must approve a resolution to put such a measure on the ballot. Texas is one of 24 states that does not have the citizen-initiative process.
To learn more about statewide ballot measures, be sure to read Ballotpedia’s State Ballot Measures Monthly, a series that tracks ballot measure certifications and the news that surrounds them. Each edition shows the measures that were certified in the month of the report. Each report is published on the 10th day of the month and covers the certifications and news of the previous month.
Stay tuned as we’ll be covering more states’ historic ballot measures.
Tennessee legislative elections taking place amidst disagreement over education policy
Continuing our coverage of statewide primaries, today we dive into elections in Tennessee. The state is holding primaries for congressional, state executive, state legislative, and municipal offices on Aug. 1.
Why it matters at the national level
In the U.S. Senate, Democrats currently have a majority. There are 47 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and four independents. Two independents caucus with the Democratic Party, and two others count towards the Democratic majority for committee purposes. Thirty-four of 100 seats are up for election, including one special election. Of the seats up for election in 2024, Democrats hold 19, Republicans hold 11, and independents hold four. Both U.S. senators from Tennessee are Republicans.
In the U.S. House, Republicans currently have a 220-212 majority with three vacancies. Tennessee’s House delegation includes one Democrat and 10 Republicans. We’re following one of Tennessee’s U.S. House primaries as a battleground primary:
Primary elections
U.S. Senate
Voters in Tennessee will elect one member to the U.S. Senate on Nov. 5. Incumbent U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) is running for re-election against Trest Wittum (R) in the Republican primary. Four candidates are running in the Democratic primary: Marquita Bradshaw (D), Lola Denise Brown (D), Gloria Johnson (D), Civil Miller-Watkins (D).
U.S. House
Thirty-one candidates are running for Tennessee’s nine U.S. House districts, including 19 Democrats and 12 Republicans. That’s 3.4 candidates per district, less than in the previous three election cycles. There were four candidates per district in 2022, five candidates per district in 2020, and 5.4 in 2018.
- The number of candidates running for the U.S. House in Tennessee this year is also less than any other year since 2014.
- No seats are open this year, meaning all incumbents are running for re-election. The last time all incumbents ran for re-election in Tennessee was in 2014.
- Six candidates—five Democrats and one Republican—are running for the 8th Congressional District, the most candidates running for a seat in Tennessee this year.
- Six primaries—four Democratic and two Republican—are contested this year, the fewest since 2014. There were eight contested primaries in 2022, eight in 2020, 13 in 2018, 10 in 2016, and 11 in 2014.
State legislature
Voters in Tennessee will elect representatives in all 99 House districts and 16 of 33 Senate districts. Two hundred-forty major party candidates are running for state legislative office, the most of any election cycle since 2014. One hundred-six are Democrats, a decade-high and up 34% from 2022. There are 134 Republican candidates, one candidate fewer than in 2022.
The 2024 state legislative elections are taking place in the context of a conflict among House Republicans over a proposal to expand Tennessee’s school voucher program. In the 2024 legislative session, Gov. Bill Lee (R) supported a proposal allowing all Tennessee families with school-age children access to vouchers to be applied towards the cost of private school.
The bill did not advance to a final vote before the end of the session owing to differences between the House and Senate drafts. Chalkbeat described this as “one of the biggest defeats of [Lee’s] administration, now in its second term.” According to the Tennessee Lookout, with the Legislature out of session until 2025, the primaries “are the next frontier in the debate over whether state lawmakers should adopt a universal plan to provide parents with $7,200 in cash to subsidize private school tuition.” As of June 7, 2024, Lee had endorsed two Senate incumbents.
- Ballotpedia identified the Senate Republican primaries in Districts 2, 4, 6, and 18 as battlegrounds.
- Ballotpedia identified the House Republican primaries in Districts 13, 24, and 73 as battlegrounds.
Click here for more on the battleground primaries.
Tennessee has 41 contested state legislative primaries this year, a 14% increase from the previous cycle. Fourteen of the 41 contested primaries are for Democrats. This is the same as in 2020 and up 27% from 11 in 2022. Republicans have 27 contested primaries, up 8% from 2022.
Tennessee is one of 23 states with a Republican trifecta. A state government trifecta is a term used to describe a single-party government where one political party holds the governor’s office and a majority in both chambers of the state legislature.
Executive offices
Tennessee is not holding elections for governor or other state executive offices this year.
Today is Harry Potter’s birthday…let’s see which candidates are celebrating
At Ballotpedia, we believe elections are more than races to a finish line. They’re an opportunity for voters to choose representatives who reflect their values and uphold their ideals. That’s why Ballotpedia created Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey.
We ask all candidates with Ballotpedia profiles to complete a survey so we can find out what motivates them on political and personal levels. Candidate Connection is designed to elicit insightful and thoughtful responses from candidates on what they care about, what they stand for, and what they hope to achieve.
In total, 32 candidates who completed the survey so far this year mentioned Harry Potter in at least one of their answers. In 2022, 26 candidates mentioned Harry Potter, and 49 did in 2020. To celebrate Harry Potter’s birthday, let’s take a look at a few candidates’ survey responses that mention Harry Potter.
Kenneth Cianchette (R) is running in the general for the Missouri Senate in District 26 on Nov. 5.
- Question: What is your favorite book? Why?
- Answer: “Harry Potter books. Yeah, I said it.”
Timothy Stringham (D) is running for election for Maricopa County Recorder in Arizona in the July 30 Democratic primary.
- Question: What is your favorite book? Why?
- Answer: “Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone, which was the last gift my father ever gave me before he died when I was a kid. Followed closely by Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy.”
David Bies (Libertarian Party) ran for election to the U.S. House to represent Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District. He will not appear on the ballot for the Libertarian Party primary on July 30, 2024.
- Question: What is your favorite book? Why?
- Answer: “I read a lot of books so it would be a long list. I love the Harry Potter books, I love Lord of the Rings and books like it because I feel like it takes my imagination to a place I could never achieve by reading non fiction books but I love any good story. “
Tracy McMillan ran for election to the Alpine School District to represent District 5 in Utah. She lost in the nonpartisan primary on June 25, 2024.
- Question: If you could be any fictional character, who would you want to be?
- Answer: “If I could be any fictional character it would be Hermione Granger from the “Harry Potter” series. She is smart, brave, true to herself, and will do whatever it takes to protect the people she cares most about.”
Travis Nembhard (D) ran for election to the U.S. House to represent Virginia’s 10th Congressional District. He lost in the June 18 Democratic primary.
- Question: What is your favorite book? Why?
- Answer: “It’s very cliched, but my favorite book was Harry Potter when I was younger, because it was one of the few books that I had gotten lost in at high school age. I later had a similar effect with the book Crime and Punishment by Dostoevsky, and other titles by various authors as I got older, but the Harry Potter series is what I had recalled setting me on that path. It’s important to remember that when I think of ways to motivate my kids to read more.”
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey, and be sure to browse recent survey responses here.