Welcome to the Wednesday, Sept. 4, 2024 Brew.
By: Ethan Sorell
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- New Hampshire has fewer state legislative primaries as national committees target state
- Incumbent George Gascón and Nathan Hochman are running in the general election for Los Angeles County District Attorney
- President Joe Biden (D) ends August with 41% job approval
New Hampshire has fewer state legislative primaries as national committees target state
Continuing our coverage of statewide primaries, today we dive into elections in New Hampshire, one of the three final states holding primary elections on Sept. 10, along with Delaware and Rhode Island. New Hampshire voters will decide nominees for its two U.S. House districts, both legislative chambers, and governor.
U.S. House
Twenty-four candidates are running for New Hampshire’s two U.S. House districts, including four Democrats and 20 Republicans. That’s an average of 12 candidates per district. An average of 9.5 candidates ran per district in 2022, six candidates per district in 2020, and 12.5 in 2018.
Here are some other highlights:
- The 2nd Congressional District is open this year. Incumbent Rep. Annie Kuster (D) is retiring from public office. This is the second time in the last 10 years that New Hampshire has had an open congressional district.
- Fifteen candidates—two Democrats and 13 Republicans—are running in the 2nd Congressional District, the most candidates running in a New Hampshire congressional district this year.
- The state’s four contested primaries are the most it has had in the last 10 years.
- Incumbent Rep. Chris Pappas (D) is in a contested primary. This is the third time in the last 10 years an incumbent House member in New Hampshire was in a contested primary.
Legislature
All 24 seats in the New Hampshire Senate and 400 seats in the New Hampshire House are up for re-election this year. Of the approximately 1.4 million people in New Hampshire, each senator represents an average of 58,125 people, while each representative represents an average of 3,488 people.
Fifty-two state legislative primaries (11.5%) are contested this year–the fewest since Ballotpedia began tracking this data in 2010.
There are 18 contested Democratic primaries and 34 contested Republican primaries.
- For Democrats, this is the fewest since 2012.
- For Republicans, this is the fewest since 2010.
Three hundred twenty-eight incumbents are running in the primaries. Among them, 89, or about 27.1%, are contested.
There are 96 open seats, including 92 in the House and four in the Senate. An average of 106.7 incumbents retired each election year from 2010 to 2022.
New Hampshire has a Republican trifecta. Republicans have a 14-10 majority in the Senate and a 197-193-1 majority in the House, with nine vacancies. Since 1992, there have been 13 years of Republican trifectas and four years of Democratic trifectas in New Hampshire.
The House has changed party control five times since 2010, and the Senate has changed party control three times during that span.
Ballotpedia included both chambers of the New Hampshire Legislature in its list of state legislative battleground chambers.
Politico’s Liz Crampton wrote, “Control of the Legislature has switched back and forth between parties over the years, underscoring the opportunity for either party to sell voters on a different vision for policymaking. The open gubernatorial race — GOP Gov. Chris Sununu isn’t running for reelection — has the potential to drive out more voters in November, giving either party a coattails push.”
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee included New Hampshire on its list of top states to protect or expand power, and the Republican State Leadership Committee said it was on its list of top states to defend.
Governor
On July 19, 2023, Gov. Chris Sununu (R) announced that he would not run for election, meaning. Three candidates are running in the Democratic primary, and six candidates are running in the Republican primary.
As of August 27, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, and Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated the race as a toss-up. Republicans have controlled the governorship since 2017. Democrats controlled the office from 2005-2016.
This is one of 11 gubernatorial elections taking place in 2024. The governor serves as a state’s top executive official and is the only executive office elected in all 50 states. There are currently 27 Republican and 23 Democratic governors. Click here for an overview of all 11 gubernatorial elections this year.
To learn more about the New Hampshire gubernatorial election, click here.
Incumbent George Gascón and Nathan Hochman are running in the general election for Los Angeles County District Attorney
Throughout the year, we’ll bring you coverage of the most compelling elections—the battlegrounds we expect to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in governments or to be particularly competitive. You can catch our previous coverage of other battleground races here.
Today, we’re looking at the Los Angeles County District Attorney election, where Incumbent George Gascón and Nathan Hochman are running in the Nov. 5 general election. The election will determine which candidate will serve as district attorney in the largest county in the U.S. by population since Los Angeles County has a population of 10 million. Gascón and Hochman advanced from the top-two primary, receiving 24.4% and 16.4% of the vote, respectively.
According to LAist, the election is “a barometer of how the public is feeling about criminal justice reforms amid an increase in property crime. Property crime is up 17.4% in the city of L.A. so far this year compared to two years ago…Violent crime is down 1.3% year to date from two years ago.”
Although the election is nonpartisan, Gascón is a registered Democrat. Though Hochman is a registered Independent, he most recently ran for elected office as a Republican in California’s 2022 Attorney General election.
Gascón’s experience and platform
Gascón was first elected in 2020. During that 2020 campaign, Gascón said he would not pursue the death penalty for people on trial, limit cash bail for misdemeanors and nonviolent felonies, and “[stop] the practice of imposing excessive sentences.”
Gascón says his policies have made residents safer, and he will keep them in place if re-elected: “The reality is that having thoughtful policies that hold people accountable, as we have, sending people to prison when they need to be locked up, but recognizing that prison cannot be the only one answer is what public safety is all about.”
Gascón previously served eight years as San Francisco District Attorney and as chief of police in San Francisco and Mesa, Arizona.
Hochman’s experience and platform
Hochman is a defense attorney and former federal prosecutor. Hochman said he would prioritize public safety and victims’ rights over reducing the length of sentences.
Hochman said Gascón put his priorities ahead of public safety. Hochman says Gascón is responsible for “nine of the most pro-criminal blanket policies in DA history.”
Hochman says his public and private legal experience will help him change the direction of the district attorney’s office. Hochman says he will avoid expanding incarceration in favor of what he describes as “the hard middle, which means you look at each individual case, the defendant, the crime committed, and the impact on the victim to determine who the true threats to our safety are, who needs to be behind bars.”
After the primary, Hochman said, “Enough is enough of playing politics with our communities’ safety…In the general election, I look forward to unifying all those who want to restore safety in their communities, in their streets, parks, subways and neighborhoods.”
Hochman completed Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey. To read those survey responses, click here.
A district attorney is an elected official responsible for prosecuting crimes within their jurisdiction. A county or some other designated district may elect district attorneys. These officials can conduct a grand jury investigation, decide whether to prosecute an offender, and offer plea bargains. The Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors sets the district attorney’s budget in Los Angeles County. The District Attorney’s Fiscal Year 2024-2025 budget is $1.09 billion.
The last Republican elected Los Angeles County District Attorney was Steve Cooley (R) in 2008. The county voted for President Joe Biden (D) over former President Donald Trump (R) 71%–27% in 2020 and for Rob Bonta (D) over Hochman 67%–33% in the 2022 attorney general election.
President Joe Biden (D) ends August with 41% job approval
Ballotpedia’s polling index takes the average of polls conducted over 30 days to calculate presidential and congressional approval ratings. We average the results and show all polling results side-by-side because we believe that paints a clearer picture of public opinion than any individual poll can provide. The data is updated daily as new polling results are published. Let’s take a look at recent data on President Joe Biden’s public opinion data.
At the end of August, approval polling averages showed 41% of adults approved of Biden’s performance, and 55% of voters disapproved of his performance. This was the same approval rating Biden received last month.
Throughout August, Biden’s approval rating was 41%.
- The lowest approval rating he’s received during his presidency is 38%, which occurred on July 27, 2022.
- The highest approval rating Biden has received is 55%, which occurred on May 26, 2021.
At the end of August, 24% of Americans approved of Congress’ performance, and 59% disapproved of Congress’ performance.
- The lowest approval rating the 118th Congress has received is 13%, which occurred on June 20, 2024.
- Congress’s highest approval rating for this session was 33% from April 21, 2023.
At this time during the Trump administration, presidential approval was two percentage points higher at 43%, and congressional approval was five percentage points lower at 19%.
Click here to learn more about Ballotpedia’s Polling Index. You can also learn more about presidential and congressional approval ratings by visiting the attached pages.