Lone Minnesota Senate election set to determine partisan control of the chamber

By

Ethan Sorell

Welcome to the Wednesday, Oct. 16, Brew. 

By: Ethan Sorell

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. Special election for vacant Minnesota Senate district will determine partisan control of the chamber
  2. 50 states in 25 days–Arkansas and Massachusetts
  3. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter’s Erin Covey joins On the Ballot to discuss U.S. House battleground elections

Special election for vacant Minnesota Senate district will determine which party controls the chamber 

Throughout the year, we’ll bring you coverage of the most compelling elections—the battlegrounds we expect to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in governments or to be particularly competitive.

Today, we’re looking at the Nov. 5 special election for Minnesota Senate District 45. The previous incumbent, Kelly Morrison (D), resigned to run for U.S. House,  leaving the Senate with a 33-33 partisan split. Minnesota senators are elected to four-year terms in midterm years, meaning the outcome of this election will determine control of the chamber through the 2026 midterms or until another member leaves office. Because Democrats control the state House and a Democrat is governor, the outcome of this election will also determine Minnesota’s trifecta status.

The table below shows partisan control of the Minnesota Senate following every general election from 1992 to 2022. All data from 2006 or earlier comes from Michael Dubin’s Party Affiliations in the State Legislatures (McFarland Press, 2007). Ballotpedia compiled data after 2006.

Ann Johnson Stewart (D) and Kathleen Fowke (R) are running in the special election on Nov. 5. Both candidates completed Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey.

Johnson Stewart’s platform and experience

Johnson Stewart worked as a civil engineer, a teacher at the University of Minnesota at Twin Cities, and owned Professional Engineering  Services. Johnson Stewart served in the state Senate from 2021-2023 but did not run for re-election in 2022 after redistricting placed her and Morrison in the same district. 

In her Candidate Connection survey response, Johnson Stewart said, “It is critical that we protect our freedoms, including reproductive freedoms, and our democracy. Every one of our students deserve the opportunity to go to a great, well-funded public school and get the best education in the country. We need to invest in our communities, in our infrastructure and clean water, and in public safety.”

Johnson Stewart also said, “My background as a civil engineer means that I truly appreciate talking about infrastructure, planning, and how we build and maintain safe and livable communities.”

AFL-CIO Minnesota, GenderJustice, Pro-Choice Minnesota, Planned Parenthood, and the Sierra Club endorsed Johnson Stewart.

Fowke’s platform and experience

Fowke worked as a realtor and business owner. Fowke won the Republican primary for Senate District 45 in 2022 and lost to Morrison in the general election. 

In Fowke’s Candidate Connection survey response, she said, “I am running because your family desires better. I know first hand how difficult life can be when you are on a tight budget. The high costs of groceries and essentials have driven our citizens to new levels of anxiety and stress. It is time to alleviate the strain. Our government needs to stop the wasteful spending, which causes our taxes to rise. We must Ease the Squeeze and allow our families to thrive.”

Fowke also said, “I believe we need to reflect on what once worked, and that was when politicians reached across the aisle. Doing so does not mean you are weak or wishy-washy, it means that you are seeking something bigger than yourself. I look forward to bringing balance back to Minnesota.”

Minnesota Peace and Police Officers Association, Women Lead, Housing First Minnesota, Leadership Fund PAC, and the National Federation of Independent Business endorsed Fowke.

Senate District 45 voting history

In 2022, Morrison defeated Fowke 56.3%-43.7%. The 12.6 percentage point margin-of-victory (MOV) was the closest in the district since 2012. According to Dave’s Redistricting, Joe Biden (D) defeated Donald Trump (R) 57% to 41% in the current boundaries of this district in 2020. In 2022, Democrats defeated Republicans in the district in all four statewide elections and the U.S. House election. The smallest Democratic win was 50.59% to 45.39% in the state auditor election, and the largest was 56.96% to 40.91% in the gubernatorial election. 

Minnesota is one of 17 Democratic trifectas.

  • If Johnson Stewart wins, and Democrats win control of the state House, Democrats would maintain trifecta control in Minnesota. 
  • If Fowke wins, or Republicans win control of the state House, Minnesota would have a divided government.

As of Oct. 15, there are 23 Republican trifectas, 17 Democratic trifectas, and 10 divided governments where neither party has trifecta control.

To read more about the special election for Senate District 45, click on the link below. 

Keep reading

50 states in 25 days–Arkansas and Massachusetts

Continuing our 50 states in 25 days coverage, today we will look at what’s on the ballot in Arkansas and Massachusetts.  Yesterday, we gave readers a look at what Nevada and Louisiana voters can expect to see on their ballots. With 12 business days between now and the final Friday before the election, let’s continue looking into what’s on the ballot across the nation.

 

Arkansas

Let’s take a look at Arkansas’ elections. Here are some key dates and deadlines.

  • The deadline for registering in-person and mail-in voting was Oct. 7. Early voting starts on Oct. 21 and ends on Nov. 4.
  • The voting period is from 7:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. CDT on Nov. 5. Everyone who is in line when the polls close must be allowed to vote. Voters can find polling locations and times here.

Here’s what’s on the ballot:

Massachusetts

Now, let’s take a look at Massachusetts.

  • The deadline for registering in person or by mail is Oct. 26. Voters can register online up to Oct. 26. Early voting begins Oct. 19 and ends Nov. 1. 
  • All polls open from 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. ET. Everyone who is in line when the polls close must be allowed to vote. Voters can find polling locations here. 

Here’s what’s on the ballot:

  • Six presidential candidates qualified for the ballot in Massachusetts: Kamala Harris (D), Donald Trump (R), Jill Stein (G), Chase Oliver (L), Claudia De La Cruz (Party for Socialism and Liberation), and Shiva Ayyadurai (Independent).
  • Voters will elect one U.S. Senator and nine U.S. Representatives. Incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) and all nine incumbents are running for re-election. 
  • At the executive level, all eight Massachusetts Governor’s Council seats are up for election. Incumbents are running in six districts, while elections in two districts are open.
  • All 160 seats in the state House and all 40 seats in the state Senate are up for election. There are 16 open seats in the state House and three open seats in the state Senate. Massachusetts is one of 17 states with a Democratic trifecta. It has held this status since Gov. Maura Healey (D) took office in 2023. 
  • Municipal elections will be held in Suffolk County for register of deeds, county clerk of courts civil business, county clerk of courts criminal business, county clerk of supreme judicial court, and register of probate. Suffolk County is one of 80 counties included in Ballotpedia’s coverage of municipal elections.

Want to learn more about the elections you’ll be voting in this year? Click here to use our Sample Ballot Lookup tool!

The information above is just a small snippet of the detailed information on Ballotpedia for each state. You can check out our deep dive into Arakansas’ elections here and Massachusetts’ elections here.

Also, make sure to check our hub page, linked below, for future installments of the series.

Keep reading

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter’s Erin Covey joins On the Ballot to discuss U.S. House battleground elections

All 435 House of Representatives seats are up for election this year. We are following 53 of those as battleground races  – which means we’re expecting about 13% of House races to be truly competitive. Heading into the election, Republicans have a 220-212 majority, with three current vacancies. Democrats need a net gain of five districts to win a majority. 

On Wednesday’s episode of On the Ballot, Ballotpedia’s weekly podcast, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter’s Erin Covey joins Podcast Producer Frank Festa to break down the tightest races, discuss which races have shifted toward either party in recent weeks, and what winning the majority could mean for either party’s agenda once in power. 

Click on the link below to listen to today’s episode, and check back tomorrow to listen to our next episode on the Senate races to watch ahead of the November elections. 

Listen here