Welcome to the Friday, December 13, Brew.
By: Briana Ryan
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Virginia gubernatorial primaries have seen little opposition in past contests
- Alaska retains ranked-choice voting system after measure recount, five other states reject system
- Did you know that an average of 16% of officials targeted for recall between 2014 and 2023 were removed from office?
Virginia gubernatorial primaries have seen little opposition in past contests
In 2025, voters in two states—New Jersey and Virginia—will elect new governors since the incumbent governors cannot run for re-election due to term limits. While multiple candidates are vying for the Democratic and Republican nominations in New Jersey, there has been little opposition in Virginia’s primaries.
So far, three candidates—one Democrat and two Republicans—are running for governor of Virginia. On the Democratic side, Abigail Spanberger (D) is running unopposed. For Republicans, Winsome Sears (R) and Merle Rutledge (R) are running for the Republican nomination. Sears’ campaign has received the most media attention and the endorsement of incumbent Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R). Now, let’s take a closer look at the candidates and competitiveness of gubernatorial primaries in the commonwealth.
Spanberger is a former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) case officer who has represented Virginia’s 7th Congressional District since 2019. She did not seek re-election in 2024. She has campaigned on reducing childcare costs and said in a speech, “I have met far too many parents across Virginia who sometimes make the hard choice to back away from the workforce, all because the cost of child care may be greater than the parents’ take-home pay.”
In past Democratic primaries, there have been three competitive primaries and four primaries where a candidate ran unopposed. Of the three competitive primaries, the closest primary was in 2017 when Ralph Northam defeated Tom Perriello 55.9% to 44.1%. The next closest primary was in 2009 when Creigh Deeds defeated Terry McAuliffe and Brian Moran. Deeds received 49.8% to McAuliffe’s 26.4% and Moran’s 23.8%. In 2021, McAuliffe defeated four other candidates, receiving 62.1% to second-place finisher Jennifer Carroll Foy’s 19.81% of the vote.
Sears is a U.S. Marine Corps veteran and has served as the incumbent Lt. Governor of Virginia since 2021. Sears has campaigned to defend the state’s right-to-work laws and said in a speech: “Our ‘right-to-work’ law is a cornerstone of our success. It ensures that employment is not tied to union membership.”
On the Republican side, two primaries saw a competitive primary, four primaries saw a candidate run unopposed, and in 2021, a convention was held in place of a primary. The closest primary was in 2017 when Ed Gillespie defeated Corey Stewart and Frank Wagner, with Gillespie receiving 43.7% to Stewart’s 42.5% and Wagner’s 13.8%. This was the closest statewide executive primary in 2017. In 2005, Attorney General Jerry Kilgore defeated George Fitch 82.8% to 17.2%. In 2021, a convention was used in place of a primary. Delegates cast votes for the GOP nominee. Glenn Youngkin won after six rounds of voting.
Except for 2013, the party that lost the previous year’s presidential election won control of Virginia’s governorship. Since 1997, no party has held the seat for more than eight years. Democrats won the elections of 2001, 2005, 2013, and 2017, and Republicans won the elections of 1997, 2009, and 2021. If Democrats win the governor’s race, they will regain control for the first time since 2022, when Ralph Northam (D) left office. If Republicans win, this will mark the first time since the 1993 and 1997 elections that Republicans will have won two gubernatorial elections in succession. This would also mark the first time since 2013 that the party controlling the White House won the governorship.
The primary is on June 17, 2025. The general election is on November 4, 2025.
Alaska retains ranked-choice voting system after measure recount, five other states reject system
A recount in Alaska concluded on Dec. 9, confirming that the votes to retain ranked-choice voting (RCV) in the state, which the state adopted in 2020 and implemented in 2022, had the majority by 743 votes.
The defeat of Ballot Question 2, which would have repealed RCV, is the only victory from the Nov. 5 election for RCV proponents at the state level. Voters in Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, and Oregon defeated measures that would or could (in the case of Arizona) have adopted the system in their respective states. The average “no” vote in states that voted against adopting RCV was 58.5%, with Idaho having the highest at 70.0%.
One state, Missouri, approved an amendment to preempt the adoption of ranked-choice voting at the state level. The vote margin was 68.4% to 31.6%.
Including Washington, D.C., proponents of RCV spent over $66.1 million on statewide measures to adopt or maintain RCV as of Dec. 10, which was 20 times the amount opponents of RCV spent on statewide measures ($3.3 million). Article Four was the top donor supporting RCV, giving $17.4 million in total to two campaigns supporting RCV, $13 million in Nevada, and $4.4 million in Alaska. Unite America was the second top donor supporting RCV, giving $15.4 million total to three different supporting campaigns: Colorado, Idaho, and Nevada. Nevada Alliance was the top donor opposing RCV, giving $2.1 million toward the campaign to oppose RCV in Nevada.
FairVote CEO Meredith Sumpter, a proponent of RCV, said, “Changing the status quo is never easy. Entrenched interests–including several state parties and an increasingly well-organized national opposition–pushed back hard on this year’s statewide ballot measures. But make no mistake: The future remains bright for ranked choice voting.”
Save our States founder and executive director Trent England, an opponent of RCV, said, “This is a major loss for the far-left, dark-money machine that pumped millions of dollars into these ballot campaigns and came up empty-handed. Voters don’t want these out-of-state elites manipulating their election rules and state constitutions.”
Four additional measures related to electoral changes were introduced: one in Arizona, two in Montana, and one in South Dakota. Voters defeated all four measures.
From 1965 through 2023, six statewide ballot measures were introduced in four states (Alaska, Maine, Massachusetts, and Nevada). Voters approved four and rejected two. All six proposed adopting ranked-choice voting.
Did you know that an average of 16% of officials targeted for recall between 2014 and 2023 were removed from office? During that time, 3,675 officials were targeted, and 546 were removed.
Later this month, Ballotpedia will release its annual Recall Analysis—a comprehensive look back at this year’s recall efforts. We’ve released an annual report on recall elections since 2014.
While you wait for our annual report to drop, you can read our Mid-Year Recall Report here, which we released in June. Between Jan. 1 and June 28, there were 164 recall efforts against 266 officials—the most at the midway point of the year since we began tracking recalls in 2014. The number of officials removed from office—38—was also the highest by midyear since 2014. Additionally, we found that recall elections removed 14.29% of officials included in recall efforts in the first half of 2024.
Click here to learn more about 2024 recall elections.