Amee LaTour

September 1, 2022

In this issue: Major endorsement splits in Massachusetts AG primary and a look at turnout in Ohio’s split primaries

Progressive endorsers split, candidate drops out of Massachusetts AG primary

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Boston Mayor Michelle Wu, and Boston’s former Acting Mayor Kim Janey endorsed labor attorney Shannon Liss-Riordan for Massachusetts attorney general. Politico Massachusetts Playbook‘s Lisa Kashinsky said the endorsements show the primary is “pitting the state’s most prominent progressives against each other.”

Incumbent Attorney General Maura Healey (D), Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), and Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) endorsed former Boston City Council member Andrea Campbell.

Campbell, Wu, and Janey served on the city council together and ran in last year’s Boston mayoral primary.

On Tuesday, former state Assistant Attorney General Quentin Palfrey announced his withdrawal from the race and endorsed Campbell. Palfrey won the state Democratic Party’s backing in June.

Kashinsky said Palfey had “been outpaced in fundraising by Campbell and trounced by Liss-Riordan, who’s now poured at least $4.8 million of her own money into her campaign. And he’s trailed in polling while Liss-Riordan is closing the gap with Campbell after blanketing the airwaves since early July.”

Also on Tuesday, The Boston Globe editorial board endorsed Campbell.

During debates, candidates have focused on criticizing each other’s fundraising and super PAC involvement in the race. On policy, Kashinsky wrote that Liss-Riordan is more supportive of rent control and that Campbell has said she wouldn’t interfere with local efforts to implement it. Kashinsky also wrote the candidates had different approaches to combating racism, with Campbell focused on Department of Corrections and prison reforms and Liss-Riordan emphasizing the Attorney General office’s civil rights division.

See Boston.com’s candidate Q&A here for more.

The primary is Sept. 6.

Peltola wins special U.S. House election (and other Alaska updates)

On Aug. 16, Alaska held top-four primaries and a special U.S. House election, the latter of which used ranked-choice voting. Certification is expected by tomorrow, and most battleground races have been called.

U.S House special general: Mary Peltola (D) won the election. On the final round of unofficial ranked-choice voting tabulation, Peltola had 51.5% of the vote to Sarah Palin’s (R) 48.5%. This election fills the term ending Jan. 3, 2023.

Before tabulation began, Peltola had 40% of first-choice votes, followed by Palin with 31% and Nick Begich III (R) with 28%. Write-in candidates received a combined 1.6% of the vote. 

Write-in candidates were eliminated first as a batch. Then Begich was eliminated. The votes of those who chose eliminated candidates as first choices were redistributed to the voters’ second-choice candidates if they chose such. Watch a livestream of the tabulation from the Alaska Division of Elections here.

Peltola will be Alaska’s first Democratic U.S. representative since Nick Begich Sr.—Nick Begich III’s grandfather. Begich Sr.’s plane went missing while he was in office in 1972. Don Young (R) won a special election to succeed Begich. Young served until his death in March of this year. 

Peltola, Palin, and Begich will meet again in the regularly scheduled general election for U.S. House in November. General elections for all offices below will be held Nov. 8 and will use ranked-choice voting as well.

U.S. House regular primary: As of Wednesday, The New York Times had called three of the four general election spots for Peltola, Palin, and Begich III. Peltola led with 37% of the vote, followed by Palin with 30%, Begich with 26%, and Tara Sweeney (R) with 4%. 

Sweeney said she’ll withdraw from the race, meaning the fourth spot would go to the fifth-place finisher. As of Wednesday, that was Libertarian Chris Bye, who had 0.6% of the vote. Sept. 2 is the target election certification date, and Sept. 6 is the ballot certification date. 

Alaska governor: Incumbent Mike Dunleavy (R), Bill Walker (Independent), Les Gara (D), and Charlie Pierce (R) advanced to the general election. Dunleavy had 41% of the vote, followed by Walker and Gara with 23% each and Pierce with 7%.

Dunleavy was elected governor in 2018. He succeeded Walker, who initially ran for re-election that year and withdrew weeks ahead of the general election. Gara served in the state House of Representatives from 2003 to 2019. Pierce worked as a manager at ENSTAR Natural Gas Company.

U.S. Senate: Incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R), Kelly Tshibaka (R), Patricia Chesbro (D), and Buzz Kelley (R) advanced to the general election. Murkowski had 45% of the vote, followed by Tshibaka with 39%, Chesbro with 7%, and Kelley with 2%. 

Murkowski first took office in 2002. Tshibaka is a former commissioner at the Alaska Department of Administration. Chesbro is a retired teacher. Kelley is a retired mechanic.

Murkowski is the only Republican senator seeking re-election this year who voted guilty during former President Donald Trump’s 2021 impeachment trial. Murkowski’s endorsers include U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) and Sens. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), Joe Manchin (D-W.V.), and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.). Trump and the Alaska Republican Party endorsed Tshibaka. 

FL-04 recount shows Holloway still in lead

On Aug. 27, Clay, Duval, and Nassau counties’ canvassing boards conducted a machine recount of Florida’s 4th Congressional District Democratic primary votes. LaShonda Holloway remained in the lead, ending the recount with 207 more votes than Anthony Hill.

According to state law, a recount must be conducted when the margin of victory is less than or equal to 0.5% of the total votes cast. The 201 votes separating the candidates as of last week equaled around 0.34% of the total cast in the primary.

The winner faces Aaron Bean (R) in November. Election forecasters view this as a Safe Republican district.

This was one of several congressional primary recounts that have taken place this year. In addition to high-profile recounts in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate Republican primary and Texas’ 28th District Democratic primary runoff, others included Florida’s 22nd District GOP primary, Texas’ 15th District Democratic primary runoff, Wisconsin’s 2nd District GOP primary, and Georgia’s 10th District Democratic primary.

Ohio’s state legislative primary voter turnout decreased amid split election

Due to redistricting-related court challenges, Ohio held two primaries this year. The first, its regularly scheduled primary, took place on May 3 for all except state legislative offices. State legislative primaries occurred on Aug. 2. Turnout in the May 2022 primary was comparable to 2018 and 2020 primary turnout, while state legislative primary turnout specifically was lower this year than in 2018 and 2020.

The chart below compares unofficial voter turnout numbers in the Aug. 2 primary with official turnout numbers in the May primary, along with the official turnout numbers in the state’s previous primary elections through 2012.

Ohio’s Aug. 2 primary had the lowest voter turnout in a statewide primary election in at least a decade, with 661,101 votes cast. A look at votes cast in General Assembly elections in previous years shows that fewer people voted in these primaries in 2022. Votes cast in state Senate elections were 38% of the 2020 figure and 46% of the 2018 figure. In state House elections, 2022 primary votes were 41% of the 2020 figure and 45% of the 2018 figure. The chart below shows the total votes cast in state House and state Senate elections in 2022, 2020, and 2018.

Note: Ohio holds elections for all state House districts and half its state Senate districts in even-numbered years.

The Ohio Redistricting Commission’s state legislative maps underwent a lengthy legal challenge process involving several map submissions to the Ohio Supreme Court. A federal court order went into effect on May 28, selecting one of the submitted maps for use in the 2022 elections. The legal challenge to the legislative maps is ongoing before the state supreme court.

Ohio is one of two states that split its primaries this year due to redistricting legal challenges. Statewide turnout data is not yet available in New York, which held primaries on June 28 and Aug. 23.

Competitiveness data: Massachusetts

We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive Massachusetts’ Sept. 6 primaries are compared to recent cycles. 

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

August 25, 2022

In this issue: Primary results from Florida and New York and a look ahead to September

Primary results roundup

Florida and New York held statewide primaries Tuesday, while Oklahoma held a statewide primary runoff. We were watching four battleground Democratic primaries in Florida and New York. Here’s how those races unfolded:

Florida gubernatorial: Charlie Crist defeated Nikki Fried and two other candidates in Florida’s gubernatorial primary.

Crist had 60% of the vote to Fried’s 35%.

Crist, a U.S. Representative, won a single term as governor in 2006 as a Republican. Fried was elected state agriculture commissioner in 2018.

Crist will face incumbent Ron DeSantis (R) and six other candidates in the general election. Forecasters rate that election as Likely Republican.

New York’s 10th District: Dan Goldman defeated incumbent Mondaire Jones in New York’s 10th District.

Goldman was first with 26% of the vote, followed by Yuh-Line Niou with 24%. Jones was in 3rd place with 18%. 

Jones was elected to the 17th District in 2020 and ran in the 10th because of redistricting. The new 10th District does not overlap the old 17th District.

Goldman is a former prosecutor who was lead counsel during the first impeachment of former President Donald Trump (R). Niou has been a member of the state Assembly since 2017.

New York’s 12th District: Incumbent Jerrold Nadler defeated fellow incumbent Carolyn Maloney and two others, 55%-25%.

Nadler, who represents the 10th District, was running for re-election in the 12th following redistricting. This was the sixth and final incumbent v. incumbent primary of the year.

Both Nadler and Maloney were first elected in 1992 and campaigned as progressives. Nadler chairs the Judiciary Committee, and Maloney chairs the Oversight and Government Reform Committee.

Nadler’s endorsers included U.S. Sens. Chuck Schumer (D) and Elizabeth Warren (D), while Maloney’s included the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC and EMILY’s List.

New York’s 17th District: Incumbent Sean Maloney defeated Alessandra Biaggi, 66%-33%.

Maloney was first elected to Congress in 2012 and chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Biaggi was elected to the state Senate in 2018 and was deputy national operations manager for Hillary Clinton’s (D) 2016 presidential campaign.

Maloney currently represents the 18th District but is running in the 17th due to redistricting.

Biaggi cast herself as the progressive candidate in the race. Maloney’s endorsers included former President Bill Clinton (D) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D), while Biaggi’s included U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) and the Working Families Party.

Media analysis

The New York Times wrote that incumbents had performed better last night than in recent cycles:

Not long ago, New York was a haven for young insurgent candidates who defeated powerful, well-funded incumbents up and down the ballot.

But despite clamoring among some Democratic voters this summer for generational change, and simmering frustrations with Democratic leadership after the overturning of Roe v. Wade, Tuesday was a strong night for the establishment, at least toward the top of the ticket.

In a newly redrawn New York district that includes parts of Westchester County and the Hudson Valley, Representative Sean Patrick Maloney, 56, who chairs the Democratic House campaign committee, easily dispatched a challenge from State Senator Alessandra Biaggi, 36, who ran to his left.

In Manhattan, Suraj Patel, 38, a lawyer, ran an underdog campaign against Ms. Maloney and Mr. Nadler, two septuagenarians who were elected to Congress three decades ago. But his efforts to press a message that it was time for a new generation of leadership fell short against two established leaders. He came in third.

Politico wrote about the effect of the Dobbs decision on the Florida gubernatorial primary:

Everything we know about the overturning of Roe v. Wade is that it will likely be a major motivator for Democrats in the fall.

What abortion does not appear to be — given Nikki Fried’s wipeout in the Florida gubernatorial primary on Tuesday night — is singularly determinative.

Fried, the state agriculture commissioner — once heavily promoted as the future of the Democratic Party in the state — had spent much of the primary campaign casting her opponent, Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.), as at best untrustworthy on the issue. Crist, a former Republican governor of the state before morphing into an independent and, eventually, a Democrat, said during his U.S. Senate run in 2010 that he would advocate for “pro-life legislative efforts.”

Even days before this year’s primary, when asked if he was “pro-life,” Crist responded, “I’m for life, aren’t you?” before adding, “I’ve been pro-choice in every single decision I’ve made that affects a women’s right to choose.“

So, what’s more important to Democrats than Roe?

Electability, it seems.

State legislative incumbents defeated

The figures below were current as of Wednesday morning. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.

Three state legislative incumbents—two Democrats and one Republican—lost primaries in Florida and New York on Aug. 23. One incumbent faced a contested primary runoff in Oklahoma and won. Overall, there are 11 uncalled state legislative primaries featuring incumbents: four Democratic and seven Republican.

Across the 42 states that have held statewide primaries so far, 202 incumbents, 4.8% of those running for re-election, have lost, continuing an elevated rate of incumbent primary defeats compared to recent election cycles.

Of the 42 states that have held primaries, 11 have Democratic trifectas, 21 have Republican trifectas, and 11 have divided governments. Across these states, there are 5,479 seats up for election, 87% of the nationwide total.

Incumbent Delaware Auditor trails party-backed primary challenger following misdemeanor convictions

Last month, Delaware Auditor Kathy McGuinness (D) was convicted on three misdemeanor charges: conflict of interest, structuring, and official misconduct. The charges stemmed from McGuiness hiring her daughter to work in the auditor’s office as other employees’ hours were cut during the COVID-19 pandemic. 

This was the first instance of a sitting statewide elected official in Delaware being convicted of a crime. McGuiness faces maximum sentences of up to one year in prison for each misdemeanor count. Her attorney said they would appeal the case to the Delaware Supreme Court.

Following the conviction, leaders in both chambers of the state legislature called on McGuiness to resign. The Democratic Party of Delaware endorsed McGuinness’ primary challenger, Lydia York, in July. Party chairwoman Betsy Maron said, “We saw Ms. York’s candidacy as an opportunity to restore the Auditor’s office to its intended function and do away with the political theater that has kept the incumbent at center stage for all the wrong reasons.”

Campaign finance reports filed last week showed York having raised $47,000 since January to McGuinness’ $24,000.

The primary is Sept. 13.

Another poll shows McKee and Gorbea within margin of error in Rhode Island gubernatorial primary

A few updates since we last wrote about the Rhode Island governor’s race: 

A 12 News/Roger Williams University poll released on Aug. 16 showed incumbent Gov. Dan McKee at 28% and Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea at 25%, within the 4.9 percentage point margin of error. Helena Foulkes, who has held a number of executive positions with CVS Health, came third at 14%. Twenty-one percent of poll respondents were undecided, and 42% said there was a good chance they might change their minds before the election. 

McKee and Gorbea have been similarly close in other polls released over the past few months.  

WPRI’s Ted Nesi and Tim White wrote, “With just a three-point gap separating the two frontrunners, Rhode Islanders are likely to see an intense four-week sprint to the Sept. 13 primary[.] … Multiple campaigns are revving up their paid media this week[.]”

Forward Rhode Island, a group affiliated with the Laborers International Union of America, is spending $500,000 supporting McKee. According to The Providence Journal’s Katherine Gregg, the group is airing an ad “saying [McKee] is a known quantity in the gun control, voting and abortion-rights arenas.” A new McKee ad highlights his tax policy. 

According to Nesi and White, Gorbea is tripling her spending on ads heading into the primary. Gorbea recently began airing an ad in which she says, “As your governor, I will protect abortion rights no matter what.”  

Nesi also reported that Foulkes’ campaign intends to spend $1.2 million in August and September. Her latest ad focuses on her healthcare background. 

Former Secretary of State Matt Brown, who received 8% support in the 12 News poll, spent $50,000 on his first ad last week. In the ad, Brown and unofficial running mate Cynthia Mendes dance while their daughters speak to the camera, highlighting their parents’ support for progressive policies like Medicare for All and the Green New Deal. 

Five candidates are running in the Sept. 13 primary.

Competitiveness data: New York

We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive New York’s primaries were compared to recent cycles. The state legislative numbers include figures for both the state Senate primaries held earlier this week and the state Assembly primaries in June.

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

Nevada voters to consider implementing top-five primaries

Nevada voters will consider a constitutional amendment that would implement a top-five primary system in their state on this year’s November ballot.

Earlier this year, Alaska became the first state to hold top-four congressional primaries. 

The Nevada proposal would allow five candidates to advance from the primary. It would adopt the new voting system for state executive and state legislative elections as well as congressional races. The measure would not affect presidential or local elections.

Alaska is not the first state to end the use of partisan primaries for congressional nominations. California and Washington use a top-two system in which only two candidates advance from the primary, eliminating the need for ranked-choice voting in the general election. 

Louisiana uses a majority-vote system which is similar to the top-two system but allows a candidate who wins more than 50% of the primary vote to win the election outright.

Although Maine still uses partisan primaries, it uses ranked-choice voting for general elections for Congress.

Supporters of the initiative include the Institute for Political Innovation and Vote Nevada. Opponents include Gov. Steve Sisolak (D), U.S. Sens. Jacky Rosen (D) and Catherine Cortez-Masto (D), and the state branch of the AFL-CIO.

Nevada requires that initiated constitutional amendments win approval twice before taking effect. This means voters would need to approve the measure again in 2024 if it passes this year before the new system is adopted. 

Between 1985 and 2020, 73% of citizen-initiated constitutional amendments that made the ballot in Nevada won approval after voters passed them twice.

August 25, 2022

In this issue: Takeaways from primaries in New York and a look ahead to New Hampshire

Primary results roundup

Florida and New York held statewide primaries Tuesday, while Oklahoma held a statewide primary runoff. We were watching two battleground Republican primaries in those states. Here’s how those races unfolded:

New York’s 23rd Congressional District: Nicolas Langworthy defeated Carl Paladino 51%-47%.

Langworthy is a former chairman of the New York Republican Party who was also a member of the executive committee for Donald Trump’s (R) presidential transition in 2016. Paladino was the Republican gubernatorial nominee in 2010 and co-chaired Trump’s 2016 campaign in New York.

Both candidates won endorsements from national Republicans. Langworthy’s endorsers included U.S. Rep. Jim Banks (R), and Paladino’s included U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R).

The 23rd District is currently vacant following Tom Reed’s (R) resignation in May amidst an allegation of sexual misconduct. 

Election forecasters rate the general election Solid/Safe Republican.

Oklahoma U.S. Senate special runoff: Markwayne Mullin defeated T.W. Shannon 65%-35%.

Mullin is a member of the U.S. House who was first elected in 2012. Shannon is the CEO of Chickasaw Community Bank and a former state representative.

Mullin and Shannon were the top two finishers from a 13-candidate field running for the Republican nomination for the four remaining years in Sen. Jim Inhofe’s (R) term. Inhofe will retire in January.

Mullin’s endorsers include former President Donald Trump (R), and Shannon’s included former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R).

Media coverage

Politico wrote about Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ (R) endorsements:

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ political muscle was on full display Tuesday night, as candidates he endorsed won a handful of key state legislative races and a wave of school board seats, which were a main focus for the governor in the final weeks of the 2022 midterm.

DeSantis’ biggest legislative win was Republican Kiyan Michael, who is running for a Jacksonville state House seat. Michael was running against more established and better funded politicians, including a former state representative.

DeSantis did not endorse until late in the race, but his support gave Michael immediate momentum to overcome her Republican rivals. She ended up securing 47 percent of the vote in a three-way primary.

…

For the final weeks of primary season, DeSantis put an outsized effort, including contributions from his personal political committee, into local school boards across the state. It’s part of his broader agenda to reshape Florida’s education system.

It worked. Of the 30 school board candidates that got DeSantis’ formal support, 21 won their election bids Tuesday night.

The Tampa Bay Times wrote about incumbents’ performance in Florida’s primaries:

If the Democratic establishment had a good night, the Republican Party institution had a great one.

Senate President Wilton Simpson comfortably defeated primary challenger James W. Shaw in the GOP primary for agriculture commissioner. Several incumbent U.S. representatives — Vern Buchanan, for example — crushed primary opponents challenging them from the right.

Then there were the candidates who lost.

During his two terms in office, state Rep. Anthony Sabatini, R-Howey-in-the-Hills, made enemies around the Florida Legislature. He repeatedly clashed with his own party’s leadership, calling Chris Sprowls, the top Republican in the Florida House, a RINO: Republican In Name Only. As Sabatini geared up for the 7th Congressional District GOP primary, it was apparent that top state Republicans were rooting for him to lose.

He did, by more than 10,000 votes, to veteran Cory Mills, whose campaign netted more than a dozen endorsements from GOP U.S. representatives. After the race was called, Sabatini blamed the result on “the Swamp.”

In The Villages-area 11th Congressional District primary, a similar story played out in far-right activist Laura Loomer’s challenge to incumbent U.S. Rep. Daniel Webster. Loomer, who has called Islam a “cancer on society,” lost the primary by about 5,000 votes. (She refused to concede Tuesday, citing “big tech election interference.”)

State legislative incumbents defeated

The figures below were current as of Wednesday morning. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.

Three state legislative incumbents—two Democrats and one Republican—lost primaries in Florida and New York on Aug. 23. One incumbent faced a contested primary runoff in Oklahoma and won. Overall, there are 11 uncalled state legislative primaries featuring incumbents: four Democratic and seven Republican.

Across the 42 states that have held statewide primaries so far, 202 incumbents, 4.8% of those running for re-election, have lost, continuing an elevated rate of incumbent primary defeats compared to recent election cycles.

Of the 42 states that have held primaries, 11 have Democratic trifectas, 21 have Republican trifectas, and 11 have divided governments. Across these states, there are 5,479 seats up for election, 87% of the nationwide total.

St. Anselm poll finds most voters undecided, Mowers and Leavitt about even in NH-01

A recent St. Anselm College poll shows that most Republican voters in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District are undecided about who they will vote for, with Matt Mowers and Karoline Leavitt leading.

The poll, conducted between Aug. 9-11, found Leavitt and Mowers about even with 25% and 21% support, respectively. The only other candidates to register more than 5% support were Gail Huff Brown at 9% and Tim Baxter at 8%. 

Another 33% of respondents said they were undecided. The poll’s margin of error was 4.8 percentage points.

Mowers was the 1st District nominee in 2020 and earlier served as an aide to New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R). Mowers won 59% of the vote in the 2020 primary, defeating four other candidates, before losing to Chris Pappas (D), 51% to 46%, in the general election.

Leavitt worked as a presidential writer and assistant press secretary in President Donald Trump’s (R) administration. After Trump left office, Leavitt was communications director for U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik. 

Leavitt launched her first TV ad on Aug. 16, describing herself as a conservative outsider and New Hampshire native.

National Republicans are supporting both Mowers and Leavitt. Mowers’ endorsers include former U.S. Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell and former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. 

Leavitt’s include U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Mike Lee (R-Utah), and U.S. Reps. Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.).

As of June 30, Mowers had raised $1.57 million to Leavitt’s $1.27 million.

Primaries in New Hampshire are semi-closed, meaning a voter must either be a member of the party or not be a member of any party in order to participate. 

The winner will face two-term incumbent Pappas. Two election forecasters rate the general election a toss-up, and a third says it tilts towards Democrats.

Poll shows over a third of New Hampshire Republicans are undecided in U.S. Senate race

Don Bolduc and Chuck Morse lead in New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate primary, according to the same St. Anselm College poll that shows a tight race in the 1st Congressional District. 

The poll found Bolduc leading Morse 32% to 16%, with nearly 40% undecided. No other candidate had support from more than 5% of respondents. “It’s very unclear who’s going to win this,” said Fergus Cullen, a former chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party.

According to Politico’s Natalie Allison, “two potentially decisive endorsements loom: That of former President Donald Trump, and [New Hampshire Gov. Chris] Sununu.” Though he has not endorsed a candidate, Sununu has criticized Bolduc, saying, “I don’t take Bolduc as a serious candidate. I don’t think most people do.”

In an Aug. 14 debate sponsored by the Government Integrity Project, Bolduc, Bruce Fenton, and Kevin Smith all said they doubted the outcome of the 2020 election. Bolduc said, “I signed a letter with 120 other generals and admirals saying Trump won the election, and damn it, I stand by [it].” Fenton said that “we can’t tell what’s true,” but that there was “a lot of fraud” during the election. Smith said “it’s very unlikely that Joe Biden got 81 million votes” and said he’d support investigations into the 2020 election if elected.

The three candidates also offered their positions on the FBI following the department’s search of former President Trump’s home at Mar-a-Lago. “The first question we have to ask is, do we still need the FBI? If we answer that question no, then get rid of them,” Bolduc said. “It’s time to abolish the FBI and replace it with nothing,” Felton said. “I believe at its core, it’s a good institution, and I believe there are fine men and women who want to do their jobs and want to protect us,” Smith said.

As of June 30, Fenton had raised $1.6 million to Morse’s $1.3 million. Smith raised $700,000, and Bolduc raised $500,000.

The incumbent is Sen. Maggie Hassan (D), who was first elected in 2016. The two preceding Senate elections were split in competitiveness. In 2020, incumbent Jeanne Shaheen (D) won re-election against Bryant Messner (R) by a margin of 15.6 percentage points. In 2016, Hassan (D) defeated incumbent Kelly Ayotte (R) by 0.1 percentage points.

New Hampshire uses a semi-closed primary system. Unaffiliated voters may vote in the primary, but in order to do so, they have to choose a party before voting. This changes their status from unaffiliated to affiliated with that party unless they fill out a card to return to undeclared status.

Competitiveness data: New York

We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive New York’s primaries were compared to recent cycles. The state legislative numbers include figures for both the state Senate primaries held earlier this week and the state Assembly primaries in June.

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

Nevada voters to consider implementing top-five primaries

Nevada voters will consider a constitutional amendment that would implement a top-five primary system in their state on this year’s November ballot.

Earlier this year, Alaska became the first state to hold top-four congressional primaries. 

The Nevada proposal would allow five candidates to advance from the primary. It would adopt the new voting system for state executive and state legislative elections as well as congressional races. The measure would not affect presidential or local elections.

Alaska is not the first state to end the use of partisan primaries for congressional nominations. California and Washington use a top-two system in which only two candidates advance from the primary, eliminating the need for ranked-choice voting in the general election. 

Louisiana uses a majority-vote system which is similar to the top-two system but allows a candidate who wins more than 50% of the primary vote to win the election outright.

Although Maine still uses partisan primaries, it uses ranked-choice voting for general elections for Congress.

Supporters of the initiative include the Institute for Political Innovation and Vote Nevada. Opponents include Gov. Steve Sisolak (D), U.S. Sens. Jacky Rosen (D) and Catherine Cortez-Masto (D), and the state branch of the AFL-CIO.

Nevada requires that initiated constitutional amendments win approval twice before taking effect. This means voters would need to approve the measure again in 2024 if it passes this year before the new system is adopted. 

Between 1985 and 2020, 73% of citizen-initiated constitutional amendments that made the ballot in Nevada won approval after voters passed them twice.

August 18, 2022

In this issue: The big stories from Tuesday’s elections and satellite spending updates in two battleground House districts

Primary results roundup

Wyoming’s U.S. House District: Harriet Hageman defeated Rep. Liz Cheney 66%-29%. Hageman had backing from former President Donald Trump (R), dozens of incumbent House Republicans, and Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.). Cheney’s supporters included Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), and former President George W. Bush (R).

Hageman founded the Wyoming Conservation Alliance and has worked as an attorney. In 2014, Hageman worked for Cheney’s unsuccessful U.S. Senate campaign. Hageman said she challenged Cheney this year because of Cheney’s focus on the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol. Cheney is vice chairwoman of the committee. 

Cheney has represented Wyoming in the House since 2017. She was the third-highest-ranking Republican when she chaired the House Republican Conference from 2018 to May 2021, when House Republicans voted to remove Cheney from the position after she criticized Trump and voted to impeach him. 

Cheney is the 12th House incumbent and eighth Republican to lose a primary this year. Five defeated incumbents faced fellow incumbents in primaries due to redistricting. 

Before we get into Alaska’s results, here’s a refresher: Alaska held top-four primaries for several offices and a ranked-choice special general election for U.S. House on Tuesday. This year’s are the first elections under the system voters approved in 2020.

Alaska’s special U.S. House election: This race won’t be callable until at least Aug. 31, the deadline for mail ballots to arrive for the special election. After all eligible ballots are in, election officials will begin ranked-choice voting tabulation. As of Wednesday, Mary Peltola (D) had 38% of first-choice votes, followed by Sarah Palin (R) with 32% and Nicholas Begich III (R) with 29%. Write-in candidates received votes as well. 

In initial rounds of tabulation, last-place finishers will be eliminated, and the votes from people who voted for those candidates will be redistributed to those voters’ second-choice candidates (if they ranked someone second). The process continues until one candidate receives a majority of votes.

Al Gross (I) had also advanced from the special top-four primary, but he withdrew from the race in June.

Rep. Don Young (R) died in March. The special election will fill the remainder of Young’s term, which ends Jan. 3, 2023. The winner will be sworn in after results are certified. Certification is currently scheduled for Sept. 2.

Alaska’s top-four U.S. House primary: Peltola, Begich, and Palin are leading the 22-candidate field with 35%, 31%, and 27%, respectively, as of Wednesday. Tara Sweeney (R) was fourth with 4% and Chris Bye (L) fifth with 1%. This is for the regular two-year term from January 2023-2025.

Alaska U.S. Senate top-four primary: Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) and Kelly Tshibaka (R) led with 44% and 40%, respectively, as of Wednesday. Patricia Chesbro (D) had 6%, Buzz Kelley (R) had 2%, and five candidates had 1% each.

Murkowski is the only GOP senator running for re-election this year who voted guilty during Trump’s 2021 impeachment trial. Tshibaka is a former state Department of Administration commissioner. Sens. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) endorsed Murkowski. Tshibaka has Trump’s and the state GOP’s endorsements.  

Alaska Governor top-four primary: Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) had 42%, and Les Gara (D) and Bill Walker (I) had 22% each as of Wednesday. Charlie Pierce (R) had 7% and Christopher Kurka (R), 4%. Five other candidates ran.

Walker was governor from 2014 to 2018 when Dunleavy was elected. Walker initially ran for re-election in 2018 but withdrew from the race. Gara is a former state House member, and Kurka currently serves in the chamber. Pierce worked as a manager at ENSTAR Natural Gas Company.

Media analysis

Politico Huddle wrote about Cheney’s loss in the context of other Republicans who voted for impeachment: 

Of the 10 House Republicans who bucked their party and standard bearer of the new GOP to vote to impeach the-President [sic] Donald Trump following the Jan. 6 insurrection, just two are left with a chance to return to Congress next year.

Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), the leading critic of Trump within the Republican party, was toppled last night by primary challenger Harriet Hageman, who embraced Trump and won his endorsement. Cheney is the fourth impeachment Republican to lose a primary this cycle. Four others chose retirement over a bruising reelection effort.

…

The last men standing are Reps. David Valadao (R-Calif.) and Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.), who succeeded in primaries but still must survive a general election.

“I have said since Jan. 6 that I will do whatever it takes to ensure that Donald Trump is never again anywhere near the Oval Office, and I mean it,” Cheney said at the close of her concession speech in Jackson, Wyoming, last night.

“This primary election is over, but now the real work begins,” she said.

What that “real work” is, still isn’t clear. In the near term, Cheney will return to Capitol Hill for more Jan. 6 select committee hearings. She could mount a bid for the White House, though either a GOP primary or independent run would be long shots.

Our friends at Playbook scooped that Cheney will launch a new organization in the coming weeks “to educate the American people about the ongoing threat to our Republic, and to mobilize a unified effort to oppose any Donald Trump campaign for president,” Cheney spokesperson Jeremy Adler told Playbook.

Anchorage Daily News wrote about the challenges Alaska’s top three U.S. House candidates have faced and their prospects both in the current elections and in the regular general election:

Palin has a devoted following but is also resented by many longtime Alaskans who recall her decision to resign the governorship and become a reality television star. Begich is running with the support of the Alaska Republican Party establishment, but is battling an association with his Democratic uncle, former U.S. Sen. Mark Begich. Either Begich or Palin would have to rely on second-place votes in order to overtake Peltola in the ranked choice tabulation.
…
Matt Shuckerow, a political consultant who has previously worked for Young, said the results put Palin “in the driver’s seat.” If she remains in second position, he said she will likely get a sufficient number of Begich voters’ second-place votes to propel her ahead of Peltola.
…
After results came in Tuesday night, Begich said in a phone call that he remains “really optimistic” about his November run. Peltola’s campaign manager Anton McParland also said they were already looking ahead to November.

Shuckerow said the November election results could be different from the special election results. Turnout is typically significantly higher in November compared to the August primary, which can change both campaign strategies and the makeup of the voters.

…

John-Henry Heckendorn, a political consultant who runs Ship Creek Group, which has advised Peltola’s campaign, said the results are particularly encouraging for the Democrat’s campaign. Rural Alaskans and progressives — two groups that are likely to favor Peltola — have higher turnout in the November election. And Peltola has had less money to spend on getting her name out there, meaning that there are still many voters who aren’t familiar with her, polling suggests, he said.

“Mary has the biggest ceiling of any of the candidates,” Heckendorn said.

State legislative incumbents defeated

The figures below were current as of Wednesday morning. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.

Fourteen state legislative incumbents—five Democrats and nine Republicans—lost primaries in Hawaii and Wyoming over the past week. No incumbents faced contested primaries in Alaska. Overall, there are seven uncalled state legislative primaries featuring incumbents: two Democratic and five Republican.

Across the 41 states that have held state legislative primaries so far, 198 incumbents, 4.8% of those running for re-election, have lost, continuing an elevated rate of incumbent primary defeats compared to recent election cycles.

Of the 41 states that have held primaries, 11 have Democratic trifectas, 20 have Republican trifectas, and 10 have divided governments. Across these states, there are 5,319 seats up for election, 85% of the nationwide total.

Updates from Utah’s U.S. Senate election: Republican vs. Republican-turned-independent

A Republican incumbent faces a Republican-turned-independent, two third-party candidates, and no Democratic challenger in Utah’s U.S. Senate election. 

Incumbent Sen. Mike. Lee (R) was first elected in 2010. Evan McMullin (I) is a former CIA officer and former policy director of the House Republican Conference. McMullin ran for president in 2016 as an independent. 

Lee voted for McMullin partly because of Trump’s proposal to temporarily prevent Muslims from entering the country. McMullin received 21.5% of the vote in Utah and 0.5% nationally.

In April, the state Democratic Party voted not to nominate a Senate candidate and endorsed McMullin. McMullin has said he won’t caucus with either party if he wins. 

Politico wrote that “McMullin says his state deserves two [Sen. Mitt] Romneys and vowed that ‘I will be in a coalition in the Senate as I am in Utah, with other pro-democracy senators.'”

According to The Wall Street Journal, “Divisions over Mr. Trump are set to be front and center in this year’s Senate race, with Mr. Lee having the backing of Mr. Trump—and Mr. McMullin calling the former president the reason he left the party.”

McMullin has criticized Lee’s initial support for legal challenges to the 2020 presidential election results immediately following the election, as shown in text messages between Lee and former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows.

McMullin said, “When you advise spurious legal challenges to a free and fair election that were designed to convince tens of millions of Americans that the election was stolen … that is not what a constitutional conservative does.”

Lee said, “I made phone calls. The rumors were not true. And I voted to certify the election.”

Lee has criticized McMullin’s support for expanding background checks on gun purchases.

An independent poll from mid-July found Lee apparently leading McMullin 41% to 36%. The poll’s margin of error was +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Put Utah First PAC spent $575,000 supporting McMullin last week. According to Federal Election Commission filings, that’s the first big satellite expenditure of the general election. Daily Kos wrote that Put Utah First PAC is “funded by Democratic megadonor Reid Hoffman.” 

According to Open Secrets, Americans for Prosperity Action and the Senate Conservatives Fund have spent a combined $545,000 supporting Lee throughout the cycle.

More than $3 million in satellite spending in OK-02 primary runoff

The Frontier reported that two super PACs have spent more than $3 million combined in Oklahoma’s 2nd Congressional District between the June 28 GOP primary and next week’s primary runoff.

Avery Carl Frix and Josh Brecheen advanced from the 14-candidate primary field with 14.7% and 13.8%, respectively. Brecheen served in the state Senate from 2010 to 2018. Frix has served in the state House since 2016.

School Freedom Fund, a Club for Growth affiliate, is supporting Brecheen and has spent $1.8 million in the runoff. A recent ad features Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) saying Brecheen “opposed every tax increase in the legislature. He fought for parents’ rights in education. And he defended the Second Amendment.”

The Frontier wrote,

The group’s attacks on Frix have been trying to paint him as a pro-tax legislator, claiming in mailers he voted for $2.7 billion in tax hikes during his time in the Oklahoma House of Representatives. 

“They’re missing the fact that we were able to balance the budget,” Frix said. 

The Fund for a Working Congress has spent $1.3 million. According to The Frontier,

In mailers, Fund for a Working Congress accused Brecheen of wanting to end the electoral college, saying that if he “had his way Hillary Clinton would be President.”

“A half-truth is a whole lie,” Brecheen said. “They’re taking a vote out of context.”

Brecheen voted for a National Popular Vote bill in the state Senate in 2014 and said he regretted the vote.

Oklahoma’s 2nd District is open as incumbent Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R) is running in the special U.S. Senate election. This is a safe Republican district. The primary runoff is Aug. 23.

Florida’s 13th Congressional District primary leads the state in satellite spending 

Satellite groups have spent millions in Florida’s 13th Congressional District ahead of next week’s GOP primary, including more than $1.7 million in recent weeks both supporting and opposing two candidates: Kevin Hayslett and Anna Paulina Luna. 

Florida Politics’ Kelly Hayes wrote that political committees have spent $900,000 on pro-Hayslett/anti-Luna ads and $800,000 on pro-Luna/anti-Hayslett ads. 

According to Open Secrets, satellite groups have spent more in this race than in any other Florida primary for federal office this year. 

The highest spenders in the primary are Stand for Florida, supporting Hayslett, and Club for Growth Action, supporting Luna. Stand for Florida, a single-candidate super PAC, has spent $630,000 supporting Hayslett and $1.4 million opposing Luna. Club for Growth Action has spent $1.3 million opposing Hayslett and $620,000 supporting Luna.

Hayslett and Luna both completed Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey. Click their names to read their full responses.

Hayslett, a private practice lawyer and former Florida assistant state attorney, said he was “running for Congress to lower taxes and protect our hard earned money.” He said, “We must combat our current affordability crisis, lower gas prices, and work to lower inflation that is crushing Florida families.” Hayslett said, “I am law enforcement’s choice for Congress, and will always support policies that protect our communities and support law enforcement.”

Luna, a U.S. Air Force veteran and conservative commentator who has worked for Turning Point USA and Prager U., said she wanted to “[b]ring America Back to Energy INDEPENDENCE aka American Oil from American Soil,” “[d]efund China and bring back American manufacturing,” and “[e]mpower people over government to include in our education system (parent’s rights), medical decisions (I am against mandates), and against big tech!”

Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Luna in September 2021. 

Five candidates are running in the Aug. 23 primary. The winner will face Democrat Eric Lynn in the general election, which independent forecasters view as Likely Republican after redistricting. Incumbent Rep. Charlie Crist (D) is running for governor.

Competitiveness data: Florida

Florida’s primaries are on Aug. 23. We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.

August 18, 2022

In this issue: Alaska election takeaways and NYT‘s battleground endorsements

Primary results roundup

Alaska, Hawaii, and Wyoming held primaries over the past week. Here are results from battlegrounds in Alaska and Hawaii.

Before we get into Alaska’s results, here’s a refresher: Alaska held top-four primaries for several offices and a ranked-choice special general election for U.S. House on Tuesday. This year’s are the first elections under the system voters approved in 2020.

Alaska’s special U.S. House election: This race won’t be callable until at least Aug. 31, the deadline for mail ballots to arrive for the special election. After all eligible ballots are in, election officials will begin ranked-choice voting tabulation. As of Wednesday, Mary Peltola (D) had 38% of first-choice votes, followed by Sarah Palin (R) with 32% and Nicholas Begich III (R) with 29%. Write-in candidates received votes as well. 

In initial rounds of tabulation, last-place finishers will be eliminated, and the votes from people who voted for those candidates will be redistributed to those voters’ second-choice candidates (if they ranked someone second). The process continues until one candidate receives a majority of votes.

Al Gross (I) had also advanced from the special top-four primary, but he withdrew from the race in June.

Rep. Don Young (R) died in March. The special election will fill the remainder of Young’s term, which ends Jan. 3, 2023. The winner will be sworn in after results are certified. Certification is currently scheduled for Sept. 2.

Alaska’s top-four U.S. House primary: Peltola, Begich, and Palin are leading the 22-candidate field with 35%, 31%, and 27%, respectively, as of Wednesday. Tara Sweeney (R) was fourth with 4% and Chris Bye (L) fifth with 1%. This is for the regular two-year term from January 2023-2025.

Alaska Governor top-four primary: Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) had 42%, and Les Gara (D) and Bill Walker (I) had 22% each as of Wednesday. Charlie Pierce (R) had 7% and Christopher Kurka (R), 4%. Five other candidates ran.

Walker was governor from 2014 to 2018 when Dunleavy was elected. Walker initially ran for re-election in 2018 but withdrew from the race. Gara is a former state House member, and Kurka currently serves in the chamber. Pierce worked as a manager at ENSTAR Natural Gas Company.

Hawaii Governor: Lt. Gov. Joshua Green won against Vicky Cayetano, Kaiali’i Kahele, and four other candidates in the gubernatorial primary on Aug. 13. Green had 63% of the vote to Cayetano’s 21% and Kahele’s 15%. Incumbent David Ige (D) is term-limited. 

Media analysis

Anchorage Daily News wrote about the challenges Alaska’s top three U.S. House candidates have faced and their prospects both in the current elections and in the regular general election:

Palin has a devoted following but is also resented by many longtime Alaskans who recall her decision to resign the governorship and become a reality television star. Begich is running with the support of the Alaska Republican Party establishment, but is battling an association with his Democratic uncle, former U.S. Sen. Mark Begich. Either Begich or Palin would have to rely on second-place votes in order to overtake Peltola in the ranked choice tabulation.
…
Matt Shuckerow, a political consultant who has previously worked for Young, said the results put Palin “in the driver’s seat.” If she remains in second position, he said she will likely get a sufficient number of Begich voters’ second-place votes to propel her ahead of Peltola.
…
After results came in Tuesday night, Begich said in a phone call that he remains “really optimistic” about his November run. Peltola’s campaign manager Anton McParland also said they were already looking ahead to November.

Shuckerow said the November election results could be different from the special election results. Turnout is typically significantly higher in November compared to the August primary, which can change both campaign strategies and the makeup of the voters.

…

John-Henry Heckendorn, a political consultant who runs Ship Creek Group, which has advised Peltola’s campaign, said the results are particularly encouraging for the Democrat’s campaign. Rural Alaskans and progressives — two groups that are likely to favor Peltola — have higher turnout in the November election. And Peltola has had less money to spend on getting her name out there, meaning that there are still many voters who aren’t familiar with her, polling suggests, he said.

“Mary has the biggest ceiling of any of the candidates,” Heckendorn said.

State legislative incumbents defeated

The figures below were current as of Wednesday morning. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.

Fourteen state legislative incumbents—five Democrats and nine Republicans—lost primaries in Hawaii and Wyoming over the past week. No incumbents faced contested primaries in Alaska. Overall, there are seven uncalled state legislative primaries featuring incumbents: two Democratic and five Republican.

Across the 41 states that have held state legislative primaries so far, 198 incumbents, 4.8% of those running for re-election, have lost, continuing an elevated rate of incumbent primary defeats compared to recent election cycles.

Of the 41 states that have held primaries, 11 have Democratic trifectas, 20 have Republican trifectas, and 10 have divided governments. Across these states, there are 5,319 seats up for election, 85% of the nationwide total.

New York Times endorses in battleground congressional primaries (and a roundup of other news)

The New York Times endorsed Dan Goldman in New York’s 10th Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Jerry Nadler in the 12th District, and U.S. Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney in the 17th. 

City & State New York wrote that the Times‘ mayoral primary endorsement last year helped Kathryn Garcia, who placed second, win in areas in the redrawn 10th and 12th Districts.

Goldman, lead counsel in the first impeachment proceeding against former President Donald Trump (R), is running alongside U.S. Rep. Mondaire Jones (of the pre-redistricting 17th District), New York City Council member Carlina Rivera, state Assembly member Yuh-Line Niou, and several others. 

Nadler is running against U.S. Rep. Carolyn Maloney and Suraj Patel, who challenged Carolyn Maloney in 2018 and 2020.

Sean Patrick Maloney, who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, is running against state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi in the redrawn 17th.

Here’s a roundup of other news in these battleground districts:

In the 10th:

• On Aug. 15, Jones and Niou held a joint press conference saying Goldman was trying to buy the seat. Jones referred to Goldman as a conservative Democrat. NY1 reported that Goldman has given his campaign $4 million. 
  • Goldman said in late July that until campaign finance reform happens, “it is important for us to try to match some of my competitors and level the playing field as a first-time candidate. So I want to spend more time with the voters, so I have agreed to put some of my own money in this race.”
• An Emerson College poll showed Goldman with 24%, Niou with 18%, Jones with 17%, and Rivera with 15%. The margin of error was +/- 4.3 percentage points.
• Six candidates participated in the first televised debate on Aug. 10.
• House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) endorsed Jones.
• The Latino Victory Fund endorsed Rivera.
• New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams (D) endorsed Niou. 

In the 12th:

• The candidates participated in a debate on Aug. 9.
• Sen. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) endorsed Nadler.
• Gloria Steinem endorsed Carolyn Maloney. 

And in the 17th:

• The Police Benevolent Association (PBA) of the City of New York has spent $416,000 opposing Biaggi. PBA president Patrick Lynch called Biaggi a “privileged New York City radical.” 
  • Biaggi said Sean Patrick Maloney should “immediately condemn pro-Trump Super PAC interference in our Democratic primary.” 
  • Maloney’s campaign said, “It is the height of hypocrisy for Alessandra Biaggi to solicit over $100,000 in PAC and dark money support on her behalf, and then attempt to deny others the same right to be heard.”
• The Working Families Party PAC spent $100,000 on ads supporting Biaggi and criticizing Sean Patrick Maloney for votes the group said were against the Affordable Care Act.
  • Maloney said the votes in question “go back to 2013 when the website wasn’t working and I thought people should have a little more time before we fine them.”
• On Aug. 10, former President Bill Clinton endorsed Maloney. 

New York’s congressional primaries are Aug. 23.

Campaigns make final push in Florida’s gubernatorial primary

Heading into Florida’s Aug. 23 gubernatorial primary, candidates Charlie Crist and Nikki Fried are “flooding Floridians with phone calls, texts, door-to-door canvassers and mailers in the homestretch of an almost certain to be low-turnout” primary, according to the Tallahassee Democrat.

Recent polls have told very different stories about the state of the race. A St. Pete Polling survey from early August showed Crist leading Fried 56%-24%. A University of North Florida poll conducted last week showed them tied within the +/- 4.3 percentage point margin of error—Fried had 47% to Crist’s 43%.

The winner will face Gov. Ron DeSantis (R). Both Crist and Fried say they’re the candidate most likely to defeat DeSantis in the general election. 

Crist, a U.S. House member, said, “I’ve got the experience, I’ve done the job, I’ve raised the money, I’ve got the endorsement of every major newspaper in the state.” 

Fried, the state agriculture commissioner, said Democrats “see I’m the one who has taken on Ron DeSantis the last three and a half years, that I’m able to tackle him on issue after issue and that I can get into the trenches and not just throw punches, but land them.”

Crist was elected governor as a Republican in 2006. He left the Republican Party in 2010 and lost the U.S. Senate election running as an independent that year. Crist ran for governor as a Democrat in 2014. Rick Scott (R) defeated Crist 48%-47%. Crist then defeated incumbent Rep. David Jolly (R) in the 2016 election for Florida’s 13th Congressional District, 52%-48%.

Fried defeated Matt Caldwell (R) by 6,753 votes in the open agriculture commissioner race in 2018. Fried is the only Democrat to win statewide elected office in Florida since 2012 when Barack Obama (D) won the state in the presidential election, and U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson (D) was re-elected. (Nelson lost his 2018 re-election bid to Scott.)

Finance reports through June 30 showed Crist raised $11.7 million to Fried’s $2.5 million. 

Three independent forecasters rate the general election Likely Republican.

Competitiveness data: Florida

Florida’s primaries are on Aug. 23. We’ve crunched some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

• Candidates per district: divides the total number of candidates by the number of districts holding elections.
• Open districts: divides the number of districts without an incumbent running by the number of districts holding elections.
• Contested primaries: divides the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
• Incumbents in contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in primaries by the number seeking re-election in the given election cycle.