CategoryNewsletters

2019’s election results in two minutes

By Dave Beaudoin
In Newsletters
November 20, 2019 at 5:38 PM
The Daily Brew
Welcome to the Wednesday, November 20, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. A summary of this fall’s top 10 elections
  2. State legislators in California, New York receive the highest salaries
  3. Biden leads Democratic presidential candidates in Ballotpedia pageviews for 4th straight week

A summary of this fall’s top 10 elections 

Before the November elections, Ballotpedia compiled a list of the top 10 races to watch in 2019, including races for state executive and legislative offices, municipal elections, and statewide ballot measures. Here’s a quick summary of what happened in those elections. 

  • Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear (D) defeated Gov. Matt Bevin (R) and John Hicks (L) in the state’s gubernatorial election. Beshear’s victory means that Kentucky will go from a Republican trifecta to divided government.

  • Mississippi Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves (R) defeated state Attorney General Jim Hood (D), Bob Hickingbottom (Constitution), and David Singletary (I) to become governor of Mississippi. Reeves’ win and Republican victories in the state House and Senate preserved the state’s Republican trifecta.

  • Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) defeated businessman Eddie Rispone (R) in the general election for governor on Nov. 16. Republicans held onto majorities in the state House and Senate, meaning that the state will remain under divided government. 

  • Democrats flipped control of the Virginia state legislature. After new members are sworn in, Democrats will have a 21-19 majority in the state Senate and a 55-45 majority in the House of Delegates. Heading into the election, Republicans held a majority in both chambers. Democrats will have a state government trifecta in Virginia, as Gov. Ralph Northam (D) was not up for election.

  • Seattle voters elected city council members in seven districts. Three incumbents ran for re-election, and all three won. Five of the seven council races were won by candidates supported by two political action committees—Civic Alliance for a Progressive Economy (CAPE) and UNITE HERE!, which is affiliated with labor groups. 

  • Colorado voters defeated Proposition CC, which would have allowed the state to retain revenue it was, at the time of the election, required to refund under the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights (TABOR). 

  • A majority of Pennsylvania electors voted to approve the Pennsylvania Marsy’s Law Crime Victims Rights Amendment. This was a measure to amend the state Constitution to guarantee victims of crimes 15 specific rights. However, the Pennsylvania Commonwealth Court enjoined the secretary of state from certifying election results, pending a court ruling on whether the amendment violates the state constitution’s requirement that separate amendments receive separate votes.

  • Texas voters approved Proposition 4—a measure to amend the Texas Constitution to prohibit the state from levying an income tax. 

  • Incumbent Mayor Sylvester Turner and former Texas A&M Board of Regents member Tony Buzbee advanced to a Dec. 14 runoff election for mayor of Houston.

Learn more blank    blankblank   

State legislators in California, New York receive the highest salaries 

There are 7,383 state legislators across all 50 states and the amount each is paid varies from state to state. 

State legislators in California earn the highest base salary among legislators in all 50 states—making $110,459 per year. New Mexico state legislators do not earn a base salary. The March 2019 figures come from survey data collected by the National Conference of State Legislators.

The states with the highest base salaries for state legislators are:

  • California: $110,459

  • New York: $110,000

  • Pennsylvania: $87,180

  • Michigan: $71,685

  • Illinois: $67,836

The states with the lowest base salaries for state legislators are:

  • New Mexico: $0 per year

  • New Hampshire: $200 per two-year term

  • Texas: $7,200 per year

  • South Carolina: $10,400 per year

  • South Dakota: $11,379 per year

The legislators in the five highest-paying states work approximately full-time, while legislators in the lowest-paying states work part-time, or in-between part-time and full-time. Forty-three states also pay legislators a per diem or reimburse certain expenses on days the legislature is in session. Many states tie per diem pay to the federal rate set by the U.S. General Services Administration.

Nineteen states use a commission of some kind to determine the salary of legislators. The powers of these commissions vary from non-binding recommendations to reports that are implemented unless either voted down by the legislature, not approved by the governor, or overturned by citizen referenda. Some states tie legislators’ salaries to those of other state employees while other states allow the legislators themselves to set their own salaries.

Biden leads Democratic presidential candidates in Ballotpedia pageviews for 4th straight week

As we previewed yesterday, 10 Democratic presidential candidates will debate tonight in Atlanta. MSNBC and The Washington Post are hosting the debate beginning at 9 p.m. ET. It will be broadcast by MSNBC and streamed on MSNBC.com, washingtonpost.com, and NBC News’ and The Washington Post’s mobile apps.

We track and report the number of views candidates’ 2020 presidential campaign pages receive to show who is getting our readers’ attention. 

For the week ending Nov. 16, Joe Biden’s campaign page on Ballotpedia received 2,448 views, more than any other Democratic candidate. This was the fourth consecutive week Biden’s page received the most pageviews among the Democratic field. Andrew Yang’s page had the second-most pageviews during this week and Elizabeth Warren’s page was third.

The only Democratic candidate to receive more pageviews last week than the week before was Tom Steyer, whose pageviews increased by 11.2%.

Yang remains the leader in overall pageviews among Democratic presidential candidates in 2019 with 141,319. He is followed by Pete Buttigieg, Biden, Kamala Harris, and Warren.

See the full data on all presidential candidates by clicking the link below.


2020 Dems debate tonight in Atlanta

By Emily Aubert
In Newsletters
November 20, 2019 at 5:33 PM

 

Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing

November 20, 2019: Ten candidates are participating in the fifth Democratic primary debate on Wednesday night. Donald Trump is touring an Apple manufacturing plant in Austin, Texas.

 Presidential Facebook ads, 2019-2020 (November 11-17, 2019)

Notable Quote of the Day

“Immigrants who have become new American citizens in key swing states could prove influential in the 2020 election if effectively mobilized, according to a new study. …

In Georgia, new citizens constitute more than 440,000 potential voters, the group estimated. President Donald Trump won the state by roughly 200,000 votes in 2016.

In Arizona, naturalized citizens make up more than 300,000 eligible voters, more than half of whom are not registered. Trump carried the state in 2016 by less than 100,000 votes, but Democrats are hopeful they can flip it in the presidential election after winning a Senate seat there last year.

And in Michigan, new citizens make up 64,000 eligible voters as of 2016, according to the analysis. Trump won the state by 10,000 votes.”

– Laura Barrón-López, Politico

Democrats

Republicans

Flashback: November 20, 2015

CNN announced its debate criteria for the Republican debate on Dec. 15, 2015. To qualify for the primetime debate, a candidate needed to reach an average of at least 3.5 percent nationally or 4 percent in Iowa or New Hampshire over a six-week period.

blank

 



Triplex Tuesdays

By Dave Beaudoin
In Newsletters
November 19, 2019 at 3:08 PM
The Daily Brew

Welcome to the Tuesday, Nov. 19, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. Republicans gain one state government triplex in 2019 elections
  2. Democrats to hold 5th presidential debate in Atlanta tomorrow
  3. Two-thirds of Brew readers who responded to our survey say they have donated to a candidate’s political campaign

Republicans gain one state government triplex in 2019 elections

Three states—Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi—held elections for governor, secretary of state, and attorney general in 2019. When one party holds those three positions in a state’s government, we describe that party as having a state government triplex. 

Heading into 2019, 18 states had a Republican triplex, 17 states had a Democratic triplex, and 15 states were under divided control. One state—Mississippi—went from divided control to a Republican triplex as a result of the 2019 elections. Once the newly-elected officials are sworn in, the new count will be 19 Republican triplexes, 17 Democratic triplexes, and 14 divided states.

Mississippi became a Republican triplex as a result of the 2019 elections. Tate Reeves (R) defeated Jim Hood (D) to become the state’s governor. Lynn Fitch (R) was elected attorney general and Michael Watson (R) was elected secretary of state. Mississippi was most recently a triplex in 2004 when Democrats held all three positions.

Both Kentucky and Louisiana remained divided triplexes. In both states, Republicans won the elections for attorney general and secretary of state, while a Democrat won the gubernatorial contest. 

Kentucky was most recently a triplex in 2015 when Democrats held all three positions. On Nov. 5, Attorney General Andy Beshear (D) defeated Gov. Matt Bevin (R) in the gubernatorial election, Daniel Cameron (R) was elected attorney general and Michael Adams (R) was elected secretary of state. 

Louisiana was most recently a triplex in 2015 when Republicans held all three positions. Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) won a second term, defeating Eddie Rispone (R) in the Nov. 16 general election. In the secretary of state election, incumbent Kyle Ardoin (R) defeated Gwen Collins-Greenup (D). State Attorney General Jeff Landry (R) won re-election in the primary Oct. 12. 

Thirteen states—Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Utah, Vermont, Washington, and West Virginia—will hold elections in 2020 for at least one office which could result in a change in triplex status. These states are 4 Republican triplexes, 3 Democratic triplexes, and 6 divided states.

Learn more blank    blankblank   

Democrats to hold 5th presidential debate in Atlanta tomorrow 

The Louisiana general election held Saturday—Nov. 16—was the final statewide contest this year. This week, the 2020 presidential race will take center stage.

Ten candidates will participate in the fifth Democratic presidential primary debate on Nov. 20: 

  • Joe Biden

  • Cory Booker

  • Pete Buttigieg

  • Tulsi Gabbard

  • Kamala Harris

  • Amy Klobuchar

  • Bernie Sanders

  • Tom Steyer

  • Elizabeth Warren

  • Andrew Yang

All 10 candidates participated in the Oct. 15 debate. Wednesday’s debate will take place at Tyler Perry Studios in Atlanta. MSNBC and The Washington Post are hosting the event with Andrea Mitchell, Rachel Maddow, Kristen Welker, and Ashley Parker moderating.

Each candidate had to receive 3% support or more in at least four national or early state polls or 5% support or more in at least two single state polls to meet the debate’s polling threshold. The four early states are Iowa (Feb. 3), New Hampshire (Feb. 11), Nevada (Feb. 22), and South Carolina (Feb. 29). Candidates also had to meet a fundraising threshold with 165,000 unique donors and a minimum of 600 donors in at least 20 states.

Julián Castro—who was in the Oct. 15 debate—failed to meet the polling threshold for this debate. The other October debate participant—Beto O’Rourke—dropped out of the race on Nov. 1.

So far, six candidates have already met increased polling and fundraising thresholds for the sixth Democratic debate on Dec. 19—Biden, Buttigieg, Harris, Klobuchar, Sanders, and Warren. Candidates have until Dec. 12 to qualify.

Two-thirds of Brew readers who responded to our survey say they have donated to a candidate’s political campaign

Our What’s the Tea? questions have been part of a series asking Brew readers whether they’ve ever participated or done certain things related to government, politics, and policy. This includes attending or speaking at government meetings, voting in special elections, or serving on a jury. 

Last week’s question asked whether our readers had donated to a political campaign. We received many responses, so thanks very much for participating!

What's the tea?

 



Sanders hits 4 million contributions milestone

By Emily Aubert
In Newsletters
November 19, 2019 at 3:08 PM
Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing

November 19, 2019: The Bernie Sanders campaign announced it had received more than 4 million donations. Donald Trump launched a six-figure ad campaign in black community newspapers and on urban-format radio stations. blank    blankblank   

In which state do Democratic presidential candidates have the longest-running winning streak?

Notable Quote of the Day

“Impeachment hearings are engulfing Washington, but in one surprising place — the Democratic presidential primary — it’s as if the unfolding saga hardly exists. …

It’s not that they don’t have strong opinions on the matter. When asked, the candidates nearly unanimously offer full-throated support to the impeachment effort. Rather, the turn away from impeachment reflects a simple calculus. For all the politicization of the issue, it’s of limited utility as a battering ram in a primary where most everyone — including the grassroots, party leaders and the candidates — is in agreement on the impropriety of the president’s actions.”

– David Siders, Politico

Democrats

  • Julián Castro, Kamala Harris, and Elizabeth Warren spoke at the Black Community Summit about community development in Las Vegas on Monday.

  • Joe Biden issued a plan to end violence against women on Monday, including expanding access to housing assistance and paid leave for issues related to domestic violence, sexual assault, and stalking. 

  • Cory Booker discussed gun violence, marijuana, and his personal life in an interview on The Wendy Williams Show on Monday.

  • Steve Bullock is airing a new ad in Iowa on prosecutorial authority “to follow the evidence all the way to the top”, including cases involving sitting presidents.

  • Pete Buttigieg issued a college affordability plan on Monday that would make public college tuition-free for households with an annual income of less than $100,000. It would also invest $120 billion into the Pell Grant program.

  • Amy Klobuchar held a roundtable on voting rights in Atlanta on Monday. Klobuchar also filed for the Ohio Democratic primary.

  • Wayne Messam is speaking at the Diversity in the Affordable Housing Industry Forum in Atlanta on Tuesday.

  • Deval Patrick has two public events in South Carolina on Tuesday, including a community conversation in Columbia hosted by the Democratic Black Caucus of South Carolina.

  • The Bernie Sanders campaign announced it had received more than 4 million donations, a milestone it had not reached until after the New Hampshire primary during the 2016 election.

  • Tom Steyer earned his fourth and final qualifying poll on Monday for the December debate. He has not yet met the 200,000-donor threshold. Steyer also released his $1.5 trillion healthcare plan that would build on the Affordable Care Act with a public option.

  • Warren issued an addendum to her housing plan on Monday focused on tenants’ legal rights, including a federal just cause eviction standard.

  • Marianne Williamson is finishing her campaign visit to Nebraska with events in Omaha on Tuesday.

  • Andrew Yang wrote an op-ed in The Atlanta Voice about his plan for technology regulation.

Republicans

  • Donald Trump launched a six-figure ad campaign in black community newspapers and on urban-format radio stations in 11 markets across the country.

Flashback: November 19, 2015

During a speech before the Council on Foreign Relations, Hillary Clinton discussed her plan to combat the Islamic State.blank


Florida $15 Minimum Wage Initiative to appear on 2020 ballot

By Dave Beaudoin
In Newsletters
November 19, 2019 at 3:08 PM
The Daily Brew
Welcome to the Monday, November 18, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. Florida $15 Minimum Wage Initiative to appear on 2020 ballo
  2. 35 candidates file for Congress in Alabama
  3. Join us tomorrow for our Ballotpedia Insights on American democracy

Florida $15 Minimum Wage Initiative to appear on 2020 ballot

Florida voters will decide in 2020 whether to raise the state’s minimum wage from $8.46 to $15 per hour. The measure, which will appear on the ballot as Amendment 2, would increase the minimum wage to $10 per hour on September 30, 2021, and raise it by $1 per year until reaching $15 per hour on September 30, 2026. Thereafter, the minimum wage would be adjusted each year based on changes in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).

To qualify a citizen initiative for the 2020 ballot in Florida, 766,200 valid signatures are required. In July 2019, initiative sponsor John Morgan reported having collected more than 1 million signatures for Amendment 2. Earlier this month, the Florida Division of Elections showed that proponents had submitted 768,478 valid signatures and met the state’s distribution requirement, which requires that signatures equaling at least 8% of the district-wide vote in the last presidential election be collected from at least half (14) of the state’s 27 congressional districts.

Excluding Washington D.C., which has a minimum wage of $14.00 per hour, the average state minimum wage is around $8.68. The highest statewide minimum wages based on state law are $12.00 in California, Massachusetts, and Washington. In metropolitan Portland, Oregon, the minimum wage is $12.50. In New York City, the minimum wage is $15.00 for certain employers. 

Georgia and Wyoming are the two states in the U.S. that have minimum wages of $5.15 per hour, which is lower than the federal government’s requirement of $7.25 per hour. Therefore, the federal requirement supersedes state law for most types of employees.

Minimum wageVoters throughout the country have decided 27 statewide ballot measures concerning the minimum wage since 1988, all but one of which reached the ballot through initiative signature petitions. The last time voters rejected a minimum wage increase at the ballot was in Missouri and Montana in 1996. The Missouri measure (rejected by a vote of 71% to 29%) would have required all employers to pay employees an hourly minimum wage of $6.25, with a $0.15 annual increase. The Montana measure (rejected by a vote of 56% to 44%) would have re-established a state minimum wage that would have gradually increased from $4.25 an hour to $6.25 an hour by the year 2000.

From 1996 to 2018, an average of between seven and eight measures appeared on the ballot during even-numbered years in Florida. Of all 91 measures on the ballot between 1996 and 2018, 76% were approved and 24% were defeated.

Forty-three statewide ballot measures have been certified for the 2020 ballot so far in 20 states. That number includes three other minimum wage measures in Arizona, Idaho, and Missouri.

Learn more blank    blankblank   

35 candidates file for Congress in Alabama

Alabama’s Nov. 8 Congressional filing deadline was the first of the 2020 election cycle. After it passed, 35 candidates had filed to run for the U.S. Senate or House.

Nine candidates, including incumbent Doug Jones (D), filed for the U.S. Senate election. Jones is unopposed in the Democratic primary, while eight candidates are running in the Republican primary. They include Roy Moore, who lost to Jones by 1.7% in the 2017 special election for the seat, and former U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions, who held the seat prior to Jones. The other six candidates are Stanley Adair, U.S. Rep. Bradley Byrne, Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill, state Rep. Arnold Mooney, Ruth Page Nelson, and Tommy Tuberville.

Twenty-six candidates filed for the state’s seven U.S. House seats. Five of the seven incumbents are running for re-election. Of those, two incumbents are facing primary challenges while three are running unopposed in the primary. Two other incumbents are not seeking re-election, leaving their seats open. All seven U.S. House incumbents ran for re-election successfully in both 2018 and 2016.

The Republican Party holds seven of the nine congressional seats from Alabama. In the 2020 election, 35 Senate seats and all 435 House seats are up for election. Of those Senate seats, 33 are regularly scheduled elections, one is a special election in Arizona, and another is an expected special election in Georgia. Twelve are Democratic-held seats and 23 are Republican-held seats. In the House, where all the seats are up for election, Democrats currently hold a 233-seat majority.

The Alabama primary is March 3, 2020, and a primary runoff will be March 31 for any candidates who do not win a majority of the vote (more than 50%) in the primary. The general election is November 3.

Join us tomorrow for our Ballotpedia Insights on American democracy

I hope you’ll be able to join us tomorrow, Nov. 19, for the Ballotpedia Insights session hosted by our Director of Outreach, Sarah Rosier, at 1 p.m. Eastern Time. She’ll be talking to authors Morgan Marietta and David Barker to discuss their book One Nation, Two Realities: Dueling Facts in American Democracy.

The topic is something we talk about frequently among the Ballotpedia staff. Employing several years of original survey data and experiments, Marietta and Barker reach a number of enlightening and provocative conclusions: dueling fact perceptions are not so much a product of hyper-partisanship or media propaganda as they are of simple value differences and deepening distrust of authorities.

Ballotpedia Insights is a Q&A series with political and legal scholars, researchers, reporters, authors, and subject matter experts. Each installment features a new speaker and we ask them tailored questions designed to gain in-depth insight into their work. They’re a great opportunity to learn from some leading professionals involved in politics and policy. They’re free to register and attend.

There’s still time to register and attend by clicking the link below. And if you can’t make it, don’t worry. We’ll post a recording of it and email it to you after its conclusion.

 



2020 Dems compete for party support in Nevada at “First in the West” event

By Emily Aubert
In Newsletters
November 19, 2019 at 3:03 PM

 

 

Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing

November 18, 2019: At least 14 Democratic candidates attended the “First in the West” event hosted by the Nevada Democratic Party on Sunday. Cory Booker wrote an op-ed on charter schools for The New York Times.


        

There are 16 new candidates running since last week, including five Democrats, six Republicans, and one Green. In total, 953 individuals are currently filed with the FEC to run for president.

Notable Quote of the Day

“Democrats who argue that nominating a moderate presidential candidate is the best approach to beat Trump are certain to say Louisiana’s race bolsters their case. Edwards, a West Point graduate, opposes gun restrictions, signed one of the nation’s strictest abortion bans and dismissed the impeachment effort as a distraction.

Still, while Rispone’s loss raises questions about the strength of Trump’s coattails, its relevance to his reelection chances are less clear. Louisiana is expected to easily back Trump next year, and Edwards’ views in many ways are out of step with his own party.”

– Melinda Deslatte, Associated Press

Democrats

Republicans

On the Cusp: Tracking Potential Candidates

  • While speaking at the Christian Cultural Center in Brooklyn on Sunday, Michael Bloomberg said he was wrong to support the stop-and-frisk program in New York City and apologized for its disproportionate effect on black and Latino communities. 

What We’re Reading

Flashback: November 18, 2015

Donald Trump released a series of radio ads in the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

 



Illinois legislature approves changes to state public-sector labor relations law

By Jerrick Adams
In Newsletters
November 17, 2019 at 8:53 PM

On Nov. 13, the Illinois Senate voted 45-9 to approve SB1784, a bill that would make a series of changes to the state’s existing public-sector labor relations laws. The House approved the bill 93-23 on Oct. 29. The bill now goes to Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D), who has not indicated whether he plans to sign it.

  • What does the bill propose? As originally introduced on Feb. 16, SB1784 did not have any bearing on public-sector unions. Instead, it dealt with state government ethics. The House amended the bill to make the following changes to the Illinois Public Labor Relations Act and the Illinois Educational Labor Relations Act:
    • Require public employers to furnish unions with a complete list of the names and addresses of the public-sector workers in their bargaining units.
    • Prohibit employers from discouraging employees from participating in unions.
    • Permits union representatives to meet with new employees during working hours.
    • Permits unions to limit the time periods during which members can resign or rescind their dues deductions.
    • Declares that public employers and public-sector unions cannot be held liable for claims involving the payment of dues or agency fees before June 27, 2018, when the U.S. Supreme Court issued its decision in Janus v. AFSCME.
      • In Janus, the high court held that compelling workers to pay dues or fees to a union violates workers’ First Amendment rights.
  • What are the reactions?
    • Rep. Jay Hoffmann (D), who voted in favor of the bill, said, “This is an attempt to restore employee rights and lay out what public employers in Illinois can and cannot do with regard to union representation and an employee joining a union. This does not overturn the Janus decision, this is post-Janus.”
    • Joe Tabor, a policy analyst for Illinois Policy, said, “Public employees are ill-served by SB1784, which would restrict the exercise of their constitutional rights to distance themselves from unions and their politics. It would empower unions to indoctrinate new employees and call workers’ cell phones. It tries to legislate after the fact by stopping litigation to recover workers’ money that should never have been taken from them, which is sure to draw court challenges.”
  • Also in Illinois …
    • On Nov. 12, Judge Sharon Coleman, of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois, upheld a state law requiring that a union represent all the employees within its bargaining unit, including those who are not dues-paying members. Plaintiffs James Sweeney and the International Union of Operating Engineers, Local 150, had alleged that this requirement violated their First Amendment rights. Coleman rejected this argument, citing a recent ruling in which the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit found that “unions designated as exclusive representatives were (and still are) obligated to represent all employees, union members or not, ‘fairly, equitably, and in good faith.'” Coleman was appointed to the court by President Barack Obama (D).

The big picture

Number of relevant bills by state

We are currently tracking 106 pieces of legislation dealing with public-sector employee union policy. On the map below, a darker shade of green indicates a greater number of relevant bills. Click here for a complete list of all the bills we’re tracking.

Union Station map November 15, 2019.png

Number of relevant bills by current legislative status

Union Station status chart November 15, 2019.png

Number of relevant bills by partisan status of sponsor(s)

Union Station partisan chart November 15, 2019.png

Recent legislative actions

Below is a complete list of legislative actions taken since our last issue. Bills are listed in alphabetical order, first by state then by bill number.

  • Illinois SB1784: This bill would require that public-sector union representatives be granted an opportunity to meet with new hires. It would require employers to furnish unions with worker information, including addresses, contact numbers, and email addresses. It would also permit unions to limit the period during which members can resign and rescind dues deduction authorizations.
    • Senate approved Nov. 13.


The last statewide election of 2019

By Dave Beaudoin
In Newsletters
November 15, 2019 at 5:28 PM
 The Daily Brew

Welcome to the Friday, November 15, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. Louisiana voters to decide governor, state legislative races Saturday
  2. Patrick joins 17 Democrats running for President
  3. What’s the Tea?

Louisiana voters to decide governor, state legislative races Saturday

The last statewide elections of 2019 take place Saturday, Nov. 16, as Louisiana holds general elections for offices where no candidate received a majority of votes in the primary elections held Oct. 12. Louisiana voters will elect a governor and secretary of state, as well as five state Senators and 24 members of the state House.

There has been significant satellite spending by both parties in the weeks leading up to the election. The National Democratic Redistricting Committee (NDRC) contributed $100,000 to the House Democratic Campaign Committee of Louisiana, the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee of Louisiana, and Louisiana Democrats at the end of October. The NDRC is a 527 group chaired by former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder that aims to position Democrats favorably for the round of redistricting following the 2020 census. Politico reported that the Republican National Committee spent $1 million on get-out-the-vote efforts in the days leading up to the election, bringing their contributions to $2 million.

Republicans secured a supermajority in the state Senate in the October 12 primary. Heading into Saturday’s election, Republicans are seven seats shy of a 70-seat supermajority in the Louisiana House of Representatives. Party control of eight state House seats will be decided in the general election. Republican candidates need to win all seven races in which they are facing a Democratic or independent candidate in order to win a veto-proof House majority. The other 16 races feature two candidates from the same party.

These are the last legislative elections before the state government redraws congressional and state legislative districts following the 2020 census. If Republicans win veto-proof majorities in both legislative chambers, they will have control over Louisiana’s redistricting process, regardless of the gubernatorial election’s outcome.

Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) and businessman Eddie Rispone (R) will face off in the state’s gubernatorial general election. In the Oct. 12 primary, Edwards finished first with 46.6% of the vote, Rispone was second with 27.4% and U.S. Rep. Ralph Abraham (R) was third with 23.6%.

In-person early voting for the general election took place November 2-9. The total number of early votes cast broke a record for a non-presidential election in Louisiana, with 489,649 people voting early in person (451,171) or by absentee ballot (38,478). Here are the total number of early votes cast by year:

In the previous four Louisiana gubernatorial races decided in a general election, the total votes cast increased—from between 3.3% and 11.5%—from the primary to the general, as shown in the chart below:

*—There is no figure listed in the “Total votes – General election” column in 1999, 2007, and 2011 as the  gubernatorial race in those years was decided in the primary election when one candidate received a majority of the votes cast.

Learn more

Patrick joins 17 Democrats running for President 

Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (D) announced Thursday he would seek the Democratic presidential nomination. He filed as a candidate for the New Hampshire state primary ahead of its deadline today. Patrick did not file for the Democratic primary in Alabama and Arkansas—which had filing deadlines on Nov. 8 and Nov. 12, respectively.

Patrick joins 17 other notable candidates in the Democratic primary. That number could increase as former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (D) has filed for several state primaries without formally announcing his candidacy.

In the 2016 Democratic presidential primary, the last notable candidate to enter the race was law professor Larry Lessig in September 2015. At this point in the 2016 cycle, there were three Democratic candidates—former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Sen. Bernie Sanders, and former Gov. Martin O’Malley.

There were fifteen Republican candidates for president on this date four years ago. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal suspended his campaign on Nov. 17, 2015.

Learn more→

We took a week off from our What’s the Tea? segment last week so that we could provide as much election coverage as possible. But our survey question is back this week, and we’re continuing with asking readers about how they’ve participated in our political process.

This week’s question is, Have you ever donated to a candidate’s political campaign?

  1. Yes
  2. No


Ballotpedia’s Weekly Presidential News Briefing: November 9-15, 2019

By Emily Aubert
In Newsletters
November 15, 2019 at 5:28 PM
 Ballotpedia's Weekly Presidential News Briefing

Every weekday, Ballotpedia tracks the events that matter in the 2020 presidential election. 

Now, we’re bringing you the highlights from our daily briefings in a weekly format so you can stay up-to-date on the 2020 election with one weekly email.

Here’s the latest from the campaign trail.

Candidates by the Number

Notable Quotes of the Week

“The party could well be too capacious to coalesce around any single candidate with sufficient intensity to take down President Trump.

The Democratic electorate is extremely broad in ideological terms. During the last presidential cycle, a lifelong socialist independent who joined the Democrats only to compete for the party’s nomination managed to come in a strong second place to a center-left candidate fully supported by the Democratic establishment. Four years later, a billionaire who’s most accurately described as a liberal Republican is attracting modest but significant support among a very different kind of Democrat before he’s even officially joined the race.

The distance separating Bernie Sanders from Michael Bloomberg is impossibly vast. Yet those are the ideological boundaries of the Democratic Party in 2019.”

– Damon Linker, The Week

“As the 2020 election approaches, both parties are sinking money and time into college campuses, driven by the idea that students—often dismissed as low-turnout layabouts—could have a huge effect in a tight race in a swing state. The mega-campuses of the Brobdingnagian public universities and community colleges in states like Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania are sometimes called ‘battleground campuses’ by organizers and activists on the ground. ‘In an election that could come down to a point or two either way in Arizona or Wisconsin, turning out voters at ASU, University of Wisconsin-Madison and other college campuses in these states could easily make the difference,’ said Andrew Baumann, a pollster for Global Strategy Group, a consulting firm that spent 2018 trying to figure out what makes the would-be college voter tick for Tom Steyer’s NextGen.”

– Kyle Spencer, Politico

Week in Review

Patrick joins 2020 presidential race, brings Democratic field back up to 18 candidates

Deval Patrick announced he was entering the Democratic presidential primary on Thursday. While he filed for the New Hampshire state primary ahead of its Friday deadline, Patrick missed earlier filing deadlines in Alabama and Arkansas.

He will campaign in California and Nevada over the weekend.

Bloomberg launches $100M anti-Trump campaign in battleground states

Michael Bloomberg is spending $100 million on digital ads critical of Donald Trump through the end of the primary season. The ad campaign will begin Friday in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. 

Bloomberg has still not formally declared his candidacy, although he has filed for the ballot in Arkansas and Alabama. Michigan also included Bloomberg in its initial list of candidates for the presidential primary ballot.

Public hearings begin in impeachment inquiry

Public hearings began in the impeachment inquiry into Donald Trump on Wednesday with testimony from U.S. diplomat William Taylor and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State George Kent.

Former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch is testifying Friday.

The Trump re-election campaign raised $3.1 million in small-dollar donations during the first day of hearings.

Sanford drops Republican primary challenge to Trump

Mark Sanford ended his presidential campaign on Tuesday. “I don’t think on the Republican side there is any appetite for a nuanced conversation on issues when there’s an impeachment overhead,” Sanford said.

In addition to Trump, three notable Republicans remain in the race: Roque De La Fuente, Joe Walsh, and Bill Weld. De La Fuente and Weld both made the ballot in Alabama and Arkansas. 

Ten Democrats qualify for November primary debate

Ten candidates qualified for the fifth Democratic primary debate: Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Tulsi Gabbard, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Tom Steyer, Elizabeth Warren, and Andrew Yang.

The debate will take place at Tyler Perry Studios in Atlanta on Nov. 20. MSNBC and The Washington Post are hosting the event with Andrea Mitchell, Rachel Maddow, Kristen Welker, and Ashley Parker moderating.

Want more? Find the daily details here:

Poll Spotlight

Staff Spotlight

Tamia Booker is a Democratic staffer with experience in outreach and engagement. Her prior experience includes work on two presidential campaigns and as deputy chief of staff to Sen. Booker (to whom she is not related). Booker graduated from Florida A&M University with a degree in political science and Spanish in 2005.

Previous campaign work:

  • 2016 Hillary Clinton (D) presidential campaign, national African American outreach director
  • 2008 Barack Obama (D) presidential campaign, youth vote director

Other experience:

  • 2017-2019: Office of Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), deputy chief of staff
  • 2016: Democratic National Convention Committee, director of constituency and allied groups engagement
  • 2010-2015: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Office of External Affairs, associate director
  • 2008-2010: College Democrats of America, executive director

What We’re Reading

Flashback: November 12-15, 2015

  • November 12, 2015: According to an analysis of SMG Delta advertising numbers, Jeb Bush and his supporters were more than doubling the television ad spending of his nearest competitor, Marco Rubio.
  • November 13, 2015: Hillary Clinton led the Democratic field in an early superdelegate count by the Associated Press with at least 359 superdelegates.
  • November 14, 2015: The second Democratic presidential primary debate was held with Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O’Malley participating.
  • November 15, 2015: Several presidential candidates discussed terrorism in interviews following the Paris terrorist attacks.

Trivia

How many counties backed Donald Trump in 2016 after backing Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012?

 



Bloomberg launches $100M anti-Trump campaign in battleground states

By Emily Aubert
In Newsletters
November 15, 2019 at 5:23 PM
 Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing

November 15, 2019: Michael Bloomberg is spending $100 million on digital ads critical of Donald Trump through the end of the primary season. More than a dozen Democratic candidates will be in California over the weekend.
 

     Each Friday, we highlight a presidential candidate’s key campaign staffer.

Daily Presidential News Briefing, Staffer Spotlight - Tamia Booker

Tamia Booker is a Democratic staffer with experience in outreach and engagement. Her prior experience includes work on two presidential campaigns and as deputy chief of staff to Sen. Booker (to whom she is not related). Booker graduated from Florida A&M University with a degree in political science and Spanish in 2005.

Previous campaign work:

  • 2016 Hillary Clinton (D) presidential campaign, national African American outreach director
  • 2008 Barack Obama (D) presidential campaign, youth vote director

Other experience:

  • 2017-2019: Office of Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), deputy chief of staff
  • 2016: Democratic National Convention Committee, director of constituency and allied groups engagement
  • 2010-2015: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Office of External Affairs, associate director
  • 2008-2010: College Democrats of America, executive director

Notable Quote of the Day

“As the 2020 election approaches, both parties are sinking money and time into college campuses, driven by the idea that students—often dismissed as low-turnout layabouts—could have a huge effect in a tight race in a swing state. The mega-campuses of the Brobdingnagian public universities and community colleges in states like Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania are sometimes called ‘battleground campuses’ by organizers and activists on the ground. ‘In an election that could come down to a point or two either way in Arizona or Wisconsin, turning out voters at ASU, University of Wisconsin-Madison and other college campuses in these states could easily make the difference,’ said Andrew Baumann, a pollster for Global Strategy Group, a consulting firm that spent 2018 trying to figure out what makes the would-be college voter tick for Tom Steyer’s NextGen.”

– Kyle Spencer, Politico

Democrats

Republicans

  • Donald Trump raised $3.1 million in small-dollar donations during the first day of public hearings in the impeachment inquiry.

On the Cusp: Tracking Potential Candidates

  • Michael Bloomberg is spending $100 million on digital ads critical of Trump through the end of the primary season. The ad campaign will begin Friday in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. 

What We’re Reading

Flashback: November 15, 2015

Several presidential candidates discussed terrorism in interviews following the Paris terrorist attacks.