Welcome to the Tuesday, July 30, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. Second set of Democratic presidential debates begins tonight
2. One week until August 6 Mississippi gubernatorial and Seattle city council primaries
3. Thirty-one school board members have faced recall efforts in 2019

Second set of Democratic presidential debates begins tonight

The second set of Democratic presidential primary debates begins tonight in Detroit, Michigan. Twenty candidates will participate over the course of two debates on Tuesday and Wednesday. 

Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren will appear in the center of the debate stage on July 30 due to their polling performance. The other participants tonight are Steve Bullock, Pete Buttigieg, John Delaney, John Hickenlooper, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, and Tim Ryan. Bullock is the only candidate participating who did not appear in the June presidential primary debate.

On the second night, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will appear in the middle of the candidate stage. Michael Bennet, Bill de Blasio, Cory Booker, Julián Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, Kirsten Gillibrand, Jay Inslee, and Andrew Yang round out the lineup on July 31. 

Dana Bash, Don Lemon, and Jake Tapper will moderate the event, which will be broadcast by CNN and streamed on CNN.com. Unlike the first debates held in June, there will be no questions requiring a show of hands or one-word, down-the-line answers. Candidates who repeatedly interrupt other speakers will have their speaking time reduced. Candidates will also be allowed to make opening and closing statements.

No debates are scheduled in August. The third presidential debate is scheduled in Houston on September 12 and 13. Candidates will need to receive 2% support or more in four national or early state polls and receive donations from at least 130,000 unique donors to qualify. Seven candidates have already achieved both thresholds—Biden, Booker, Buttigieg, Harris, O’Rourke, Sanders, and Warren.

Also, we asked you—our Brew readers—whether you would be watching this week’s debates. Here are your responses: 

 For highlights of the debates and all the presidential election news you need every weekday morning, sign up to subscribe to our Daily Presidential News Briefing—it’s free!

One week until August 6 Mississippi gubernatorial and Seattle city council primaries 

We’re covering 47 battleground elections in 2019, including four over the next week. Incumbent David Briley faces nine challengers in the nonpartisan election for mayor of Nashville, Tennessee, later this week on August 1. There are also a trio of battleground elections one week from today on August 6. Here’s a quick rundown of what to expect next week. 

Mississippi

Only one of the three 2019 gubernatorial elections is an open-seat race as Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant (R) is term-limited. Republican and Democratic party primaries will be held to select each party’s gubernatorial nominee.

Three candidates are running for the Republican nomination—Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves, former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Bill Waller Jr., and state Rep. Robert Foster. Each has identified different policy priorities. Reeves—who was endorsed by Bryant—says he has a record of experience in state government and will oppose tax increases. Waller has received endorsements from four former state party chairmen and says he would focus on repairing the state’s roads and bridges. Foster emphasizes his status as a political outsider and says he would focus on agricultural policy.

On the Democratic side, state Attorney General Jim Hood, Hinds County District Attorney Robert Shuler Smith, and six other candidates are competing to be the nominee. The last Democrat to win election as governor of Mississippi was Ronnie Musgrove in 1999. If no candidate wins a majority in either primary, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff on August 27. 

Bryant won the past two general elections with more than 60% of the vote. Two of three election forecasters tracked by Ballotpedia rate the November 5 general election as “Leans Republican” and the other rated it as “Likely Republican.”

Seattle

Seattle is holding primary elections for the seven district representatives on its city council. The top two vote recipients from each primary will compete in the November 5 general election.

Three incumbents are seeking re-election and four seats are open. The local Chamber of Commerce PAC—which has received contributions from local businesses, including Amazon—has spent more than $300,000 in support of nine candidates, including two challengers to incumbents Lisa Herbold and Kshama Sawant. In 2018, the city council passed and then repealed a head tax on businesses to fund affordable housing programs.

This year’s election also features a public campaign financing program in which residents distribute $25 vouchers to candidates of their choosing. Through the program, $1.4 million has been distributed among 35 participating candidates so far. Fifty-five candidates are running across the seven races. In 2015, 37 candidates ran for the same seven council seats.

Thirty-one school board members have faced recall efforts in 2019

We’ve recently told you about recall efforts against governors, state legislators, and city officials, so today let’s take a look at another down-ballot office—school boards.  

Ballotpedia has tracked 13 recall efforts targeting 31 school board members so far in 2019. Three of those recalls have been certified to proceed to an election:

• One recall election of two school board members was held February 19 and both were recalled. 

• A recall election against one board member was scheduled for July 16, but it was put on hold pending court action. 

• A third recall election targeting three board members is scheduled for August 27. 

Recall efforts against 13 school board members are still in progress, while efforts against nine board members have ended and will not be going to a vote. Three board members resigned after recall efforts were initiated against them. 

As of this time last year, four recall elections had been held against seven school board members. Six members were recalled in those elections and one was retained. Overall, 33 school board recall efforts targeting 74 board members nationwide were covered by Ballotpedia in 2018.

Twenty-five percent of elected officials targeted by recall efforts in 2018 were members of school boards. In 2017, 15% of elected officials targeted by recall efforts were school board members.

Ballotpedia covered 206 recall efforts against 299 elected officials in 2018. Of the 123 officials whose recalls made it to the ballot, 77 were recalled for a rate of 62.6 percent. That was higher than the 56.9 percent rate and 56.3 percent rate for 2017 and 2016 recalls, respectively.

1. New York City voters to decide ranked-choice voting for primaries, other charter amendments
2. Idaho Governor seeks further simplification of state regulations
3. We’re looking for you…to apply to our fall internship program

New York City voters to decide ranked-choice voting for primaries, other charter amendments

New York City voters will decide on five separate ballot questions November 5 that encompass 19 different charter amendment proposals. Voters will decide in favor or against all proposals grouped within a given question. The 2019 New York City Charter Revision Commission gave final approval last week to the five ballot questions, which relate to the following topics: 

• Elections—three proposals

• Civilian Complaint Review Board—five proposals

• Ethics and Government—five proposals

• City Budget—four proposals

• Land Use—two proposals

The elections proposals would implement ranked-choice voting for primary and special elections beginning in 2021 for the offices of mayor, public advocate, comptroller, borough president, and city council. It would not apply to any regular general elections. It would also change the timing of special elections to fill vacancies and for city council redistricting.

The second question would make changes to the city’s Civilian Complaint Review Board (CCRB)—which investigates complaints and recommends disciplinary actions against police officers. The ballot measure would expand the board, establish a minimum budget, and make changes to the board’s authority and powers. 

The 15-member New York City Charter Commission of 2019 was established in April 2018. The city last created such a commission to do a full review of the city’s charter in 1989 and voters approved all revisions proposed by that commission. Other charter revision commissions have also been created to propose amendments for specific issues. New York City voters approved three charter amendments in November 2018. 

You can read about the other three ballot measures—as well as the timeline of the charter review process and composition of the charter review commission—by clicking the link below.  

Idaho Governor seeks further simplification of state regulations 

President Trump (R) issued a January 2017 executive order that instituted a regulatory cap on federal agencies and required that agencies eliminate two old regulations for each new regulation issued. The federal Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs reported in 2018 that the administration’s actions on rulemaking produced an anticipated savings of $686.6 million annually. Some state governments have also undertaken efforts to change how they issue and administer regulations. For example, I brought you the story in May that the Idaho Legislature did not pass legislation before it adjourned for the year to reauthorize all state regulations.

State agencies were required to resubmit all state regulations for temporary approval. Additionally, Idaho Governor Brad Little (R) announced four changes to the state rulemaking process last week.

• The state will post all notices and schedules for public hearings during the rulemaking process on one website.

• Citizens may now subscribe to a state newsletter informing them when new rules are published.

• Agencies will have to include a cover sheet with new rules explaining the purpose of the rule, who is covered by the rule, and who to contact for more information.

• Agencies will consolidate the chapters of rules they administer to make them easier for the public to understand.

Little said his goal was to simplify up to 60% of the state’s regulations by the end of 2019. He also directed agencies to eliminate duplication and not change fundamental policies—which he said is the responsibility of the state legislature.

You can learn more about what other state governments have done regarding rulemaking and the regulatory process by clicking the link below. And to stay up to date on actions at the federal and state level related to rulemaking, the separation of powers, and due process, subscribe to our free monthly Checks and Balances newsletter.

We’re looking for you…to apply to our fall internship program

We’re looking for undergraduate and graduate students to join our Fall internship program.

It’s a great job that pays (yes—a paid internship—and we can arrange school credit for your work too). It’s not a “make coffee and change the toner” internship, either. 

You’ll learn a lot along the way—taking an active role, working alongside our Editorial, Communications, Tech or Outreach teams.

You’ll publish articles on our website…learn how to spot (and stop) bias..and something else, too: 

You will be making a difference in the social and civil fabric of our nation.  

Our Fall 2019 internship program will run from Monday, August 26 through Friday, December 13. Interns will work approximately 20 hours per week depending on their availability.  

You can apply and find more information at the link below.

1. Oregon amendment that would increase cigarette taxes goes to voters in 2020
2. Arkansas group attempts to qualify 2020 referendum on bill that allows optometrists to perform surgical procedures
3. What’s the tea?

Oregon amendment that would increase cigarette taxes goes to voters in 2020

Oregon voters will decide a state constitutional amendment in 2020 that would increase the tax on cigarettes and create a new tax on e-cigarettes to fund healthcare-related programs. The new tax revenue would be appropriated to the Oregon Health Authority for medical and healthcare-related programs such as the state’s Medical Assistance Program, mental health programs, and other programs concerning tobacco and nicotine health issues.

If approved by voters, the state would apply the following taxes beginning Jan. 1, 2021:

• Increase the cigarette tax from $1.33 per pack to $3.33 per pack;

• Impose a tax on inhalant delivery systems (such as e-cigarettes) at a rate of 65% of the wholesale price; and

• Increase the cap on cigar taxes from $0.50 to $1.00.

Oregon’s current tax rate on cigarettes of $1.33 per pack is the 32nd highest rate in the country. 

The measure was introduced at the request of Gov. Kate Brown (D). The state House passed the amendment 39 to 21, largely along party lines. Most Democrats voted for the proposal, while most Republicans opposed it. One Democratic representative voted against the measure, and two Republican representatives voted in favor. The Senate passed the measure 18-8, also along party lines. Four Republican senators were absent or excused. In Oregon, legislature-referred statutes are not subject to gubernatorial veto and do not require the governor’s signature.

The last state to vote on a cigarette tax measure was Montana, in 2018, where voters defeated that measure, 52.7% to 47.3%. That measure would have raised taxes on tobacco products, including cigarettes, electronic cigarettes and vaping products, and chewing tobacco. The state would have used the revenue to extend and fund expanded eligibility of Medicaid coverage under the Affordable Care Act as well as other healthcare-related programs.

Cigarette tax rates vary from state to state and, sometimes, between localities within a state. Cigarettes are also subject to a federal excise tax of approximately $1.00 per pack. Washington, D.C. has the highest cigarette tax rate of $4.50 per pack and Missouri levied the lowest state-imposed cigarette tax of $0.17 per pack. Eighteen states, including Oregon, levy a tax rate ranging from $1.00 to $1.98 per pack.  

E-cigarette (vapor) taxes are levied by state or local governments and vary by method. Some authorities tax a percentage of the wholesale price, while others tax per unit or milliliter of e-liquid. Eighteen states have enacted a tax on vapor products. Washington, D.C., has the highest vapor tax at 96% of the wholesale price. Oregon has not enacted a tax on e-cigarettes or vapor products.

Arkansas group seeks 2020 referendum on bill allowing optometrists to perform surgical procedures

In other ballot measure news, an Arkansas group—Safe Surgery Arkansas—submitted more than 84,000 signatures in support of a veto referendum in 2020 regarding HB1251, a bill that allows optometrists to perform surgical procedures. 

Petitioners were required to submit 53,491 signatures—6% of votes cast for governor in the last gubernatorial election—by July 23 to qualify the veto referendum for the ballot.

Safe Surgery Arkansas seeks to overturn HB 1251 and are advocating for a ‘no’ vote on the referendum. HB 1251 amended the definition of “practice of optometry” in Arkansas law to allow optometrists to perform certain surgical procedures, such as injections, removal and biopsy of skin lesions with low risk of malignancy, and specific laser procedures that are sometimes required after cataract surgery or are related to the treatment of glaucoma. 

The state House approved HB 1251 by a vote of 70-19. Fifty-seven Republicans joined 13 Democrats in approving the measure and 11 Republicans and eight Democrats voted against. The state Senate passed the bill 25-8, with 20 Republicans joining five Democrats in favor and five Republicans joining three Democrats in opposition. 

Safe Surgery Arkansas states on its website that the bill “jeopardizes patient safety and lowers the quality of surgical eye care in the state of Arkansas. This new law would allow optometrists— who are not medical doctors or trained surgeons— to perform delicate surgery on the eye and surrounding tissues using scalpels, lasers, and needles.”

Arkansans for Healthy Eyes is leading the opposition to the veto referendum effort and advocating for a ‘yes’ vote. A representative from the group said the bill “gives Arkansas patients better access to quality care by allowing optometrists to perform more of the procedures we are absolutely qualified to safely perform.”

Since the state’s first veto referendum in 1934, 10 such measures have appeared on the ballot in Arkansas. The most recent referendum was decided by voters in 2004. In all but one instance, the referendum efforts resulted in the targeted law being repealed or overturned.

Nationwide, 521 veto referendums have appeared on the ballot in 23 states since the first veto referendum in 1906. Voters have repealed 340—or 65.3 percent—of the targeted laws. The states with the most veto referendums were North Dakota (75), Oregon (68), and California (48). The states that allowed for veto referendums but had the fewest number of them were Wyoming (1), Nevada (2), and New Mexico (3).

We’re debuting a new feature in the Brew—”What’s the tea?”—where I’ll ask a question about a political topic and you can tell us what you think.

All you need to do is read the question and click on the answer that most closely matches your opinion. That’s it. We’ll generally do this at the end of the week and share the results with you the following week.

Sound good? Let’s get started.

Will you be watching next week’s Democratic presidential debates?

• A. Yes

• B. No

• C. What debates?

Welcome to the Thursday, July 25, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. Trump (R), Harris (D) lead PredictIt markets for their respective party’s presidential nomination
2. Republican and Democratic national party committees have raised over $300 million through June
3. Know students interested in interning with us? Let’s connect!

Trump (R), Harris (D) lead PredictIt markets for their respective party’s presidential nomination

Kamala Harris led the Democratic primary for president as of yesterday afternoon according to PredictIt, an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Last election cycle we partnered with PredictIt to share their information with our readers. Throughout the 2020 cycle, we’re bringing Ballotpedia readers periodic updates on what we’re learning from PredictIt.

Ballotpedia is tracking PredictIt markets relating to the 2020 presidential election, including the general election and Democratic and Republican primaries. Here’s a crash course in how PredictIt’s market works:

• PredictIt has established markets that correspond to real-world events, such as elections.

• Investors can buy shares in those markets reflecting a particular outcome, such as whether a candidate will win an election. 

• The price of a share in each contract rises and falls based on market demand.

• An investor makes money if more and more people also believe that the same outcome will occur, causing the price of the shares he or she owns to increase. 

• In election markets, the higher the current price of the contract that corresponds to a particular candidate, the more likely the market believes that candidate will win.

Services such as PredictIt are also being used to gain insight into trends over the lifetime of an election and the event’s probable outcome. 

In the Democratic primary market, only five candidates were priced at 10 cents or more as of July 24—Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Biden, Sanders, and Pete Buttigieg. As of the same time, Donald Trump was priced at 89 cents per contract. Here is a screenshot of the pricing for the Democratic presidential nominee market as of yesterday afternoon:

PredictIt has also created markets to allow people to invest in which candidate will win the Democratic caucus or primary in four early presidential contests—Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. As of yesterday afternoon, Bernie Sanders was the favorite to win the New Hampshire primary and Joe Biden was the leading candidate in the other three states.

Click the link below for an overview of the PredictIt markets relating to the 2020 presidential election, including the general election, Democratic primary, and Republican primary.

Republican and Democratic national party committees have raised over $300 million through June  

The Republican National Committee (RNC) outraised the Democratic National Committee (DNC) by more than 2-to-1 for the third straight month, according to July filings with the Federal Election Commission. Republicans led in national and Senatorial committee fundraising while Democrats led in House committee fundraising.

Democrats and Republicans each have three major party committees—a national committee, one dedicated to U.S. Senate elections, and one dedicated to U.S. House elections. National party committees plan their presidential nominating conventions, promote the party’s platform, and raise funds to support candidates for all offices. Each party’s Senate and House campaign committees are dedicated to electing members to their respective bodies through recruiting candidates and providing campaign and financial support.  

The table below shows each committee’s receipts, disbursements, cash on hand, and debts owed through the end of June 2019: 

These six committees have raised a combined $310.1 million from January 1 to June 30 for the 2020 election cycle. The three Republican committees raised $176.3 million and the Democratic ones have raised $133.8 million.

Know students interested in interning with us? Let’s connect!

Are you a college or university professor with undergraduate or graduate students passionate about politics, communications, or technology? If so, we want to connect with them for our Fall 2019 internship program.

Our interns assist in a variety of duties on our Editorial, Communications, Tech, or Outreach teams. They’ll learn how to publish content on Ballotpedia, learn about all we do to prevent and detect bias in our resources, and work alongside current staff members.

All interns are paid and work remotely and Ballotpedia is also happy to facilitate credit for internship experience. Our Fall 2019 internship program will run from Monday, August 26 through Friday, December 13. Interns will work approximately 20 hours per week depending on their availability.  

Help spread the word about Ballotpedia’s Fall Internship Program! Students can apply and find more information at the link below.