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Sanders hits 4 million contributions milestone

Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing

November 19, 2019: The Bernie Sanders campaign announced it had received more than 4 million donations. Donald Trump launched a six-figure ad campaign in black community newspapers and on urban-format radio stations. blank    blankblank   


In which state do Democratic presidential candidates have the longest-running winning streak?

Notable Quote of the Day

“Impeachment hearings are engulfing Washington, but in one surprising place — the Democratic presidential primary — it’s as if the unfolding saga hardly exists. …

It’s not that they don’t have strong opinions on the matter. When asked, the candidates nearly unanimously offer full-throated support to the impeachment effort. Rather, the turn away from impeachment reflects a simple calculus. For all the politicization of the issue, it’s of limited utility as a battering ram in a primary where most everyone — including the grassroots, party leaders and the candidates — is in agreement on the impropriety of the president’s actions.”

– David Siders, Politico

Democrats

  • Julián CastroKamala Harris, and Elizabeth Warren spoke at the Black Community Summit about community development in Las Vegas on Monday.

  • Joe Biden issued a plan to end violence against women on Monday, including expanding access to housing assistance and paid leave for issues related to domestic violence, sexual assault, and stalking. 

  • Cory Booker discussed gun violence, marijuana, and his personal life in an interview on The Wendy Williams Show on Monday.

  • Steve Bullock is airing a new ad in Iowa on prosecutorial authority “to follow the evidence all the way to the top”, including cases involving sitting presidents.

  • Pete Buttigieg issued a college affordability plan on Monday that would make public college tuition-free for households with an annual income of less than $100,000. It would also invest $120 billion into the Pell Grant program.

  • Amy Klobuchar held a roundtable on voting rights in Atlanta on Monday. Klobuchar also filed for the Ohio Democratic primary.

  • Wayne Messam is speaking at the Diversity in the Affordable Housing Industry Forum in Atlanta on Tuesday.

  • Deval Patrick has two public events in South Carolina on Tuesday, including a community conversation in Columbia hosted by the Democratic Black Caucus of South Carolina.

  • The Bernie Sanders campaign announced it had received more than 4 million donations, a milestone it had not reached until after the New Hampshire primary during the 2016 election.

  • Tom Steyer earned his fourth and final qualifying poll on Monday for the December debate. He has not yet met the 200,000-donor threshold. Steyer also released his $1.5 trillion healthcare plan that would build on the Affordable Care Act with a public option.

  • Warren issued an addendum to her housing plan on Monday focused on tenants’ legal rights, including a federal just cause eviction standard.

  • Marianne Williamson is finishing her campaign visit to Nebraska with events in Omaha on Tuesday.

  • Andrew Yang wrote an op-ed in The Atlanta Voice about his plan for technology regulation.

Republicans

  • Donald Trump launched a six-figure ad campaign in black community newspapers and on urban-format radio stations in 11 markets across the country.

Flashback: November 19, 2015

During a speech before the Council on Foreign Relations, Hillary Clinton discussed her plan to combat the Islamic State.blank



Florida $15 Minimum Wage Initiative to appear on 2020 ballot

The Daily Brew
Welcome to the Monday, November 18, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. Florida $15 Minimum Wage Initiative to appear on 2020 ballo
  2. 35 candidates file for Congress in Alabama
  3. Join us tomorrow for our Ballotpedia Insights on American democracy

Florida $15 Minimum Wage Initiative to appear on 2020 ballot

Florida voters will decide in 2020 whether to raise the state’s minimum wage from $8.46 to $15 per hour. The measure, which will appear on the ballot as Amendment 2, would increase the minimum wage to $10 per hour on September 30, 2021, and raise it by $1 per year until reaching $15 per hour on September 30, 2026. Thereafter, the minimum wage would be adjusted each year based on changes in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).

To qualify a citizen initiative for the 2020 ballot in Florida, 766,200 valid signatures are required. In July 2019, initiative sponsor John Morgan reported having collected more than 1 million signatures for Amendment 2. Earlier this month, the Florida Division of Elections showed that proponents had submitted 768,478 valid signatures and met the state’s distribution requirement, which requires that signatures equaling at least 8% of the district-wide vote in the last presidential election be collected from at least half (14) of the state’s 27 congressional districts.

Excluding Washington D.C., which has a minimum wage of $14.00 per hour, the average state minimum wage is around $8.68. The highest statewide minimum wages based on state law are $12.00 in California, Massachusetts, and Washington. In metropolitan Portland, Oregon, the minimum wage is $12.50. In New York City, the minimum wage is $15.00 for certain employers. 

Georgia and Wyoming are the two states in the U.S. that have minimum wages of $5.15 per hour, which is lower than the federal government’s requirement of $7.25 per hour. Therefore, the federal requirement supersedes state law for most types of employees.

Minimum wageVoters throughout the country have decided 27 statewide ballot measures concerning the minimum wage since 1988, all but one of which reached the ballot through initiative signature petitions. The last time voters rejected a minimum wage increase at the ballot was in Missouri and Montana in 1996. The Missouri measure (rejected by a vote of 71% to 29%) would have required all employers to pay employees an hourly minimum wage of $6.25, with a $0.15 annual increase. The Montana measure (rejected by a vote of 56% to 44%) would have re-established a state minimum wage that would have gradually increased from $4.25 an hour to $6.25 an hour by the year 2000.

From 1996 to 2018, an average of between seven and eight measures appeared on the ballot during even-numbered years in Florida. Of all 91 measures on the ballot between 1996 and 2018, 76% were approved and 24% were defeated.

Forty-three statewide ballot measures have been certified for the 2020 ballot so far in 20 states. That number includes three other minimum wage measures in ArizonaIdaho, and Missouri.

Learn more blank    blankblank   



35 candidates file for Congress in Alabama

Alabama’s Nov. 8 Congressional filing deadline was the first of the 2020 election cycle. After it passed, 35 candidates had filed to run for the U.S. Senate or House.

Nine candidates, including incumbent Doug Jones (D), filed for the U.S. Senate election. Jones is unopposed in the Democratic primary, while eight candidates are running in the Republican primary. They include Roy Moore, who lost to Jones by 1.7% in the 2017 special election for the seat, and former U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions, who held the seat prior to Jones. The other six candidates are Stanley Adair, U.S. Rep. Bradley Byrne, Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill, state Rep. Arnold Mooney, Ruth Page Nelson, and Tommy Tuberville.

Twenty-six candidates filed for the state’s seven U.S. House seats. Five of the seven incumbents are running for re-election. Of those, two incumbents are facing primary challenges while three are running unopposed in the primary. Two other incumbents are not seeking re-election, leaving their seats open. All seven U.S. House incumbents ran for re-election successfully in both 2018 and 2016.

The Republican Party holds seven of the nine congressional seats from Alabama. In the 2020 election, 35 Senate seats and all 435 House seats are up for election. Of those Senate seats, 33 are regularly scheduled elections, one is a special election in Arizona, and another is an expected special election in Georgia. Twelve are Democratic-held seats and 23 are Republican-held seats. In the House, where all the seats are up for election, Democrats currently hold a 233-seat majority.

The Alabama primary is March 3, 2020, and a primary runoff will be March 31 for any candidates who do not win a majority of the vote (more than 50%) in the primary. The general election is November 3.

Join us tomorrow for our Ballotpedia Insights on American democracy

I hope you’ll be able to join us tomorrow, Nov. 19, for the Ballotpedia Insights session hosted by our Director of Outreach, Sarah Rosier, at 1 p.m. Eastern Time. She’ll be talking to authors Morgan Marietta and David Barker to discuss their book One Nation, Two Realities: Dueling Facts in American Democracy.

The topic is something we talk about frequently among the Ballotpedia staff. Employing several years of original survey data and experiments, Marietta and Barker reach a number of enlightening and provocative conclusions: dueling fact perceptions are not so much a product of hyper-partisanship or media propaganda as they are of simple value differences and deepening distrust of authorities.

Ballotpedia Insights is a Q&A series with political and legal scholars, researchers, reporters, authors, and subject matter experts. Each installment features a new speaker and we ask them tailored questions designed to gain in-depth insight into their work. They’re a great opportunity to learn from some leading professionals involved in politics and policy. They’re free to register and attend.

There’s still time to register and attend by clicking the link below. And if you can’t make it, don’t worry. We’ll post a recording of it and email it to you after its conclusion.

 



2020 Dems compete for party support in Nevada at “First in the West” event

 

 

Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing

November 18, 2019: At least 14 Democratic candidates attended the “First in the West” event hosted by the Nevada Democratic Party on Sunday. Cory Booker wrote an op-ed on charter schools for The New York Times.


        

There are 16 new candidates running since last week, including five Democrats, six Republicans, and one Green. In total, 953 individuals are currently filed with the FEC to run for president.

Notable Quote of the Day

“Democrats who argue that nominating a moderate presidential candidate is the best approach to beat Trump are certain to say Louisiana’s race bolsters their case. Edwards, a West Point graduate, opposes gun restrictions, signed one of the nation’s strictest abortion bans and dismissed the impeachment effort as a distraction.

Still, while Rispone’s loss raises questions about the strength of Trump’s coattails, its relevance to his reelection chances are less clear. Louisiana is expected to easily back Trump next year, and Edwards’ views in many ways are out of step with his own party.”

– Melinda Deslatte, Associated Press

Democrats

Republicans

On the Cusp: Tracking Potential Candidates

  • While speaking at the Christian Cultural Center in Brooklyn on Sunday, Michael Bloomberg said he was wrong to support the stop-and-frisk program in New York City and apologized for its disproportionate effect on black and Latino communities. 

What We’re Reading

Flashback: November 18, 2015

Donald Trump released a series of radio ads in the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

 



Illinois legislature approves changes to state public-sector labor relations law

On Nov. 13, the Illinois Senate voted 45-9 to approve SB1784, a bill that would make a series of changes to the state’s existing public-sector labor relations laws. The House approved the bill 93-23 on Oct. 29. The bill now goes to Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D), who has not indicated whether he plans to sign it.

  • What does the bill propose? As originally introduced on Feb. 16, SB1784 did not have any bearing on public-sector unions. Instead, it dealt with state government ethics. The House amended the bill to make the following changes to the Illinois Public Labor Relations Act and the Illinois Educational Labor Relations Act:
    • Require public employers to furnish unions with a complete list of the names and addresses of the public-sector workers in their bargaining units.
    • Prohibit employers from discouraging employees from participating in unions.
    • Permits union representatives to meet with new employees during working hours.
    • Permits unions to limit the time periods during which members can resign or rescind their dues deductions.
    • Declares that public employers and public-sector unions cannot be held liable for claims involving the payment of dues or agency fees before June 27, 2018, when the U.S. Supreme Court issued its decision in Janus v. AFSCME.
      • In Janus, the high court held that compelling workers to pay dues or fees to a union violates workers’ First Amendment rights.
  • What are the reactions?
    • Rep. Jay Hoffmann (D), who voted in favor of the bill, said, “This is an attempt to restore employee rights and lay out what public employers in Illinois can and cannot do with regard to union representation and an employee joining a union. This does not overturn the Janus decision, this is post-Janus.”
    • Joe Tabor, a policy analyst for Illinois Policy, said, “Public employees are ill-served by SB1784, which would restrict the exercise of their constitutional rights to distance themselves from unions and their politics. It would empower unions to indoctrinate new employees and call workers’ cell phones. It tries to legislate after the fact by stopping litigation to recover workers’ money that should never have been taken from them, which is sure to draw court challenges.”
  • Also in Illinois …
    • On Nov. 12, Judge Sharon Coleman, of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois, upheld a state law requiring that a union represent all the employees within its bargaining unit, including those who are not dues-paying members. Plaintiffs James Sweeney and the International Union of Operating Engineers, Local 150, had alleged that this requirement violated their First Amendment rights. Coleman rejected this argument, citing a recent ruling in which the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit found that “unions designated as exclusive representatives were (and still are) obligated to represent all employees, union members or not, ‘fairly, equitably, and in good faith.'” Coleman was appointed to the court by President Barack Obama (D).

The big picture

Number of relevant bills by state

We are currently tracking 106 pieces of legislation dealing with public-sector employee union policy. On the map below, a darker shade of green indicates a greater number of relevant bills. Click here for a complete list of all the bills we’re tracking.

Union Station map November 15, 2019.png

Number of relevant bills by current legislative status

Union Station status chart November 15, 2019.png

Number of relevant bills by partisan status of sponsor(s)

Union Station partisan chart November 15, 2019.png

Recent legislative actions

Below is a complete list of legislative actions taken since our last issue. Bills are listed in alphabetical order, first by state then by bill number.

  • Illinois SB1784: This bill would require that public-sector union representatives be granted an opportunity to meet with new hires. It would require employers to furnish unions with worker information, including addresses, contact numbers, and email addresses. It would also permit unions to limit the period during which members can resign and rescind dues deduction authorizations.
    • Senate approved Nov. 13.


Ballotpedia’s Weekly Presidential News Briefing: November 9-15, 2019

 Ballotpedia's Weekly Presidential News Briefing

Every weekday, Ballotpedia tracks the events that matter in the 2020 presidential election. 

Now, we’re bringing you the highlights from our daily briefings in a weekly format so you can stay up-to-date on the 2020 election with one weekly email.

Here’s the latest from the campaign trail.

Candidates by the Number

Notable Quotes of the Week

“The party could well be too capacious to coalesce around any single candidate with sufficient intensity to take down President Trump.

The Democratic electorate is extremely broad in ideological terms. During the last presidential cycle, a lifelong socialist independent who joined the Democrats only to compete for the party’s nomination managed to come in a strong second place to a center-left candidate fully supported by the Democratic establishment. Four years later, a billionaire who’s most accurately described as a liberal Republican is attracting modest but significant support among a very different kind of Democrat before he’s even officially joined the race.

The distance separating Bernie Sanders from Michael Bloomberg is impossibly vast. Yet those are the ideological boundaries of the Democratic Party in 2019.”

– Damon LinkerThe Week

“As the 2020 election approaches, both parties are sinking money and time into college campuses, driven by the idea that students—often dismissed as low-turnout layabouts—could have a huge effect in a tight race in a swing state. The mega-campuses of the Brobdingnagian public universities and community colleges in states like Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania are sometimes called ‘battleground campuses’ by organizers and activists on the ground. ‘In an election that could come down to a point or two either way in Arizona or Wisconsin, turning out voters at ASU, University of Wisconsin-Madison and other college campuses in these states could easily make the difference,’ said Andrew Baumann, a pollster for Global Strategy Group, a consulting firm that spent 2018 trying to figure out what makes the would-be college voter tick for Tom Steyer’s NextGen.”

– Kyle SpencerPolitico

Week in Review

Patrick joins 2020 presidential race, brings Democratic field back up to 18 candidates

Deval Patrick announced he was entering the Democratic presidential primary on Thursday. While he filed for the New Hampshire state primary ahead of its Friday deadline, Patrick missed earlier filing deadlines in Alabama and Arkansas.

He will campaign in California and Nevada over the weekend.

Bloomberg launches $100M anti-Trump campaign in battleground states

Michael Bloomberg is spending $100 million on digital ads critical of Donald Trump through the end of the primary season. The ad campaign will begin Friday in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. 

Bloomberg has still not formally declared his candidacy, although he has filed for the ballot in Arkansas and Alabama. Michigan also included Bloomberg in its initial list of candidates for the presidential primary ballot.

Public hearings begin in impeachment inquiry

Public hearings began in the impeachment inquiry into Donald Trump on Wednesday with testimony from U.S. diplomat William Taylor and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State George Kent.

Former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch is testifying Friday.

The Trump re-election campaign raised $3.1 million in small-dollar donations during the first day of hearings.

Sanford drops Republican primary challenge to Trump

Mark Sanford ended his presidential campaign on Tuesday. “I don’t think on the Republican side there is any appetite for a nuanced conversation on issues when there’s an impeachment overhead,” Sanford said.

In addition to Trump, three notable Republicans remain in the race: Roque De La FuenteJoe Walsh, and Bill Weld. De La Fuente and Weld both made the ballot in Alabama and Arkansas. 

Ten Democrats qualify for November primary debate

Ten candidates qualified for the fifth Democratic primary debate: Joe Biden, Cory BookerPete ButtigiegTulsi GabbardKamala HarrisAmy KlobucharBernie SandersTom SteyerElizabeth Warren, and Andrew Yang.

The debate will take place at Tyler Perry Studios in Atlanta on Nov. 20. MSNBC and The Washington Post are hosting the event with Andrea Mitchell, Rachel Maddow, Kristen Welker, and Ashley Parker moderating.

Want more? Find the daily details here:

Poll Spotlight

Staff Spotlight

Tamia Booker is a Democratic staffer with experience in outreach and engagement. Her prior experience includes work on two presidential campaigns and as deputy chief of staff to Sen. Booker (to whom she is not related). Booker graduated from Florida A&M University with a degree in political science and Spanish in 2005.

Previous campaign work:

  • 2016 Hillary Clinton (D) presidential campaign, national African American outreach director
  • 2008 Barack Obama (D) presidential campaign, youth vote director

Other experience:

  • 2017-2019: Office of Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), deputy chief of staff
  • 2016: Democratic National Convention Committee, director of constituency and allied groups engagement
  • 2010-2015: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Office of External Affairs, associate director
  • 2008-2010: College Democrats of America, executive director

What We’re Reading

Flashback: November 12-15, 2015

  • November 12, 2015: According to an analysis of SMG Delta advertising numbers, Jeb Bush and his supporters were more than doubling the television ad spending of his nearest competitor, Marco Rubio.
  • November 13, 2015: Hillary Clinton led the Democratic field in an early superdelegate count by the Associated Press with at least 359 superdelegates.
  • November 14, 2015: The second Democratic presidential primary debate was held with Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O’Malley participating.
  • November 15, 2015: Several presidential candidates discussed terrorism in interviews following the Paris terrorist attacks.

Trivia

How many counties backed Donald Trump in 2016 after backing Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012?

 



The last statewide election of 2019

 The Daily Brew

Welcome to the Friday, November 15, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. Louisiana voters to decide governor, state legislative races Saturday
  2. Patrick joins 17 Democrats running for President
  3. What’s the Tea?

Louisiana voters to decide governor, state legislative races Saturday

The last statewide elections of 2019 take place Saturday, Nov. 16, as Louisiana holds general elections for offices where no candidate received a majority of votes in the primary elections held Oct. 12. Louisiana voters will elect a governor and secretary of state, as well as five state Senators and 24 members of the state House.

There has been significant satellite spending by both parties in the weeks leading up to the election. The National Democratic Redistricting Committee (NDRC) contributed $100,000 to the House Democratic Campaign Committee of Louisiana, the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee of Louisiana, and Louisiana Democrats at the end of October. The NDRC is a 527 group chaired by former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder that aims to position Democrats favorably for the round of redistricting following the 2020 census. Politico reported that the Republican National Committee spent $1 million on get-out-the-vote efforts in the days leading up to the election, bringing their contributions to $2 million.

Republicans secured a supermajority in the state Senate in the October 12 primary. Heading into Saturday’s election, Republicans are seven seats shy of a 70-seat supermajority in the Louisiana House of Representatives. Party control of eight state House seats will be decided in the general election. Republican candidates need to win all seven races in which they are facing a Democratic or independent candidate in order to win a veto-proof House majority. The other 16 races feature two candidates from the same party.

These are the last legislative elections before the state government redraws congressional and state legislative districts following the 2020 census. If Republicans win veto-proof majorities in both legislative chambers, they will have control over Louisiana’s redistricting process, regardless of the gubernatorial election’s outcome.

Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) and businessman Eddie Rispone (R) will face off in the state’s gubernatorial general election. In the Oct. 12 primary, Edwards finished first with 46.6% of the vote, Rispone was second with 27.4% and U.S. Rep. Ralph Abraham (R) was third with 23.6%.

In-person early voting for the general election took place November 2-9. The total number of early votes cast broke a record for a non-presidential election in Louisiana, with 489,649 people voting early in person (451,171) or by absentee ballot (38,478). Here are the total number of early votes cast by year:

In the previous four Louisiana gubernatorial races decided in a general election, the total votes cast increased—from between 3.3% and 11.5%—from the primary to the general, as shown in the chart below:

*—There is no figure listed in the “Total votes – General election” column in 1999, 2007, and 2011 as the  gubernatorial race in those years was decided in the primary election when one candidate received a majority of the votes cast.

Learn more

Patrick joins 17 Democrats running for President 

Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (D) announced Thursday he would seek the Democratic presidential nomination. He filed as a candidate for the New Hampshire state primary ahead of its deadline today. Patrick did not file for the Democratic primary in Alabama and Arkansas—which had filing deadlines on Nov. 8 and Nov. 12, respectively.

Patrick joins 17 other notable candidates in the Democratic primary. That number could increase as former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (D) has filed for several state primaries without formally announcing his candidacy.

In the 2016 Democratic presidential primary, the last notable candidate to enter the race was law professor Larry Lessig in September 2015. At this point in the 2016 cycle, there were three Democratic candidates—former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Sen. Bernie Sanders, and former Gov. Martin O’Malley.

There were fifteen Republican candidates for president on this date four years ago. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal suspended his campaign on Nov. 17, 2015.

Learn more→

We took a week off from our What’s the Tea? segment last week so that we could provide as much election coverage as possible. But our survey question is back this week, and we’re continuing with asking readers about how they’ve participated in our political process.

This week’s question is, Have you ever donated to a candidate’s political campaign?

  1. Yes
  2. No


Bloomberg launches $100M anti-Trump campaign in battleground states

 Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing

November 15, 2019: Michael Bloomberg is spending $100 million on digital ads critical of Donald Trump through the end of the primary season. More than a dozen Democratic candidates will be in California over the weekend.
 

     Each Friday, we highlight a presidential candidate’s key campaign staffer.

Daily Presidential News Briefing, Staffer Spotlight - Tamia Booker

Tamia Booker is a Democratic staffer with experience in outreach and engagement. Her prior experience includes work on two presidential campaigns and as deputy chief of staff to Sen. Booker (to whom she is not related). Booker graduated from Florida A&M University with a degree in political science and Spanish in 2005.

Previous campaign work:

  • 2016 Hillary Clinton (D) presidential campaign, national African American outreach director
  • 2008 Barack Obama (D) presidential campaign, youth vote director

Other experience:

  • 2017-2019: Office of Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), deputy chief of staff
  • 2016: Democratic National Convention Committee, director of constituency and allied groups engagement
  • 2010-2015: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Office of External Affairs, associate director
  • 2008-2010: College Democrats of America, executive director

Notable Quote of the Day

“As the 2020 election approaches, both parties are sinking money and time into college campuses, driven by the idea that students—often dismissed as low-turnout layabouts—could have a huge effect in a tight race in a swing state. The mega-campuses of the Brobdingnagian public universities and community colleges in states like Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania are sometimes called ‘battleground campuses’ by organizers and activists on the ground. ‘In an election that could come down to a point or two either way in Arizona or Wisconsin, turning out voters at ASU, University of Wisconsin-Madison and other college campuses in these states could easily make the difference,’ said Andrew Baumann, a pollster for Global Strategy Group, a consulting firm that spent 2018 trying to figure out what makes the would-be college voter tick for Tom Steyer’s NextGen.”

– Kyle Spencer, Politico

Democrats

Republicans

  • Donald Trump raised $3.1 million in small-dollar donations during the first day of public hearings in the impeachment inquiry.

On the Cusp: Tracking Potential Candidates

  • Michael Bloomberg is spending $100 million on digital ads critical of Trump through the end of the primary season. The ad campaign will begin Friday in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. 

What We’re Reading

Flashback: November 15, 2015

Several presidential candidates discussed terrorism in interviews following the Paris terrorist attacks. 



Checking in on trifectas

 The Daily Brew

Welcome to the Thursday, November 14, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. Checking in on trifectas
  2. Local Elections Roundup
  3. Two state legislative seats flip party control in Nov. 5 special elections

Checking in on trifectas

Five states—Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia—held elections for either governor or one or more state legislative chambers that could have resulted in a change in trifecta control of state government. A state government trifecta exists when the governor’s party holds majorities in both houses of a state’s legislature. 

Heading into 2019, Mississippi and Kentucky were Republican trifectas, New Jersey was a Democratic trifecta, and Louisiana and Virginia were under divided government. Nationally, there were 22 Republican trifectas, 14 Democratic trifectas, and 14 states under divided government.

Kentucky and Louisiana’s post-election trifecta status has not yet been determined. Kentucky’s gubernatorial election remains uncalled. A recanvass of the statewide election results is scheduled to be completed today. Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear (D) leads Gov. Matt Bevin (R), 49.2% to 48.8%. If Beshear wins, Kentucky will have divided government. If Bevin wins, the state’s Republican trifecta will be maintained. 

Louisiana will hold a general election for governor on Saturday, Nov. 16. Republicans won enough legislative seats in October’s all-party primaries to maintain their control of both chambers of the state legislature, so the gubernatorial election alone will determine Louisiana’s trifecta status. If Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) wins, Louisiana will remain under divided government, and if challenger Eddie Rispone (R) wins, Republicans will gain a trifecta.

New Jersey and Mississippi each retained their trifectas. In New Jersey, Democrats held their majority in the General Assembly. In Mississippi, Tate Reeves (R) was elected governor, succeeding term-limited Phil Bryant (R), and Republicans held both legislative chambers.

Democrats gained a trifecta in Virginia by winning majorities in both the state Senate and the House of Delegates. Alongside Gov. Ralph Northam (D)—who was not up for election this year—Democrats will hold a trifecta once the new legislators are seated. This is Virginia’s first Democratic trifecta since 1993.

Excluding Louisiana and Kentucky, after the 2019 elections there will be 21 Republican trifectas, 15 Democratic trifectas, and 12 states under divided government.

Learn more   

Local Elections Roundup 

Here are results updates from local elections held last week

Seattle

Voters in Seattle decided seats in seven city council districts Nov. 5. The city’s two at-large council seats were not up for election in 2019. Three incumbents ran for re-election, and all three won. The other four races were open seats.

Five of the seven council races were won by candidates supported by two political action committees—Civic Alliance for a Progressive Economy (CAPE) and UNITE HERE!, which is affiliated with labor groups. This included two incumbents, Lisa Herbold and Kshama Sawant. 

Two races were won by candidates endorsed by the local chamber of commerce’s PAC—Civic Alliance for a Sound Economy (CASE)—including incumbent Debora Juarez. Amazon contributed $1.5 million to CASE, which endorsed candidates in each race, including challengers to Herbold and Sawant. A 2018 head tax proposal, which the council passed and subsequently repealed, met with opposition from the chamber of commerce and Amazon. New York Times technology correspondent Karen Weise wrote, “Four years ago, Amazon gave just $25,000 to the PAC.” GeekWire’s Monica Nickelsburg wrote, “It’s a sign that local politics can have a big impact on this global corporation and an example of Amazon’s newfound appetite for civic engagement at all levels of government.”

These elections saw record-breaking satellite spending of more than $4 million, which was more than 5 times the amount spent in 2015, the last time the same seven council seats were up for election.

California Local Ballot Measures

Voters in California decided 45 local ballot measures Nov. 5. According to unofficial election results, 35 of those measures were approved, eight were defeated, and two measures are still undecided.

The two measures that are too close to call—San Francisco Proposition D and Redwood City School District Proposition H—are tax measures that require a two-thirds supermajority vote to pass. San Francisco Proposition D would enact a tax on ride-share companies. Current results show it being favored by 67.7% of voters. Redwood City School District Proposition H would authorize a parcel tax in the district for 12 years. Current results show it being favored by 66.2% of voters. In both instances, provisional ballots have not been fully counted.

Below is a breakdown by topic of these 45 local measures:

  • 14 parcel tax measures — 10 approved and three defeated and one for which the outcome has not been determined,
  • nine sales tax measures — eight approved and one defeated,
  • four local hotel tax measures, all approved,
  • four measures that would make city clerks, city treasurers, or both appointed instead of elected — three approved and one defeated,
  • two marijuana tax measures — both approved,
  • two local spending limit increases — both approved,
  • two measures concerning development and land use — both approved,
  • two local business taxes, including a tax on ride-share companies in San Francisco — one approved and one for which the outcome has not been determined,
  • two measures concerning affordable housing (bonds and zoning/development regulations) — both approved,
  • a campaign finance limits and disclosure requirements measure in San Francisco — approved,
  • a vaping authorization and regulation measure in San Francisco — defeated,
  • a charter amendment in San Francisco concerning the city’s disability and aging services commission — approved,
  • a measure to increase the minimum wage for hospitality workers in Rancho Palos Verdes —  defeated.

An average of 64 local measures appeared on November ballots in the previous three odd-numbered years in California. In November 2017, voters decided 62 ballot measures that took place across 20 counties. Forty measures were approved and 22 were defeated.

Two state legislative seats flip party control in Nov. 5 special elections

In addition to statewide elections held Nov. 5, special general elections were held in 19 state legislative districts across 10 states. These races were to fill vacancies for state legislators who resigned or otherwise left office before the end of their terms in states that fill such openings using elections rather than appointment. 

Thirteen of the 19 special general elections saw no change in partisan control and two seats flipped parties—one to Democrats and one to Republicans.  In Missouri, state House District 99 was won by a Democrat after being previously held by a Republican. The special election in New Jersey state Senate District 1 was won by a Republican after being previously held by U.S. Rep. Jeff Van Drew (D), who was elected to Congress in November 2018.

One special election for a seat in the Georgia state House advanced to a Dec. 3 runoff. That seat will not change partisan control as two Republicans will meet in the runoff for a seat previously held by a Republican. Elections for three Texas state House seats advanced to runoff elections for which a date has not yet been set by Gov. Greg Abbott (R). Partisan primary elections were also held Nov. 5 for a seat in the Tennessee state House. The general election for the seat will take place December 19. 

In 2019, special elections have been held for 71 seats. Heading into those races, Democrats had previously controlled 37 of the seats while Republicans previously controlled 34. Five seats flipped from Democratic control to Republican control. Two seats flipped from Republican control to Democratic control. One seat flipped from Republican control to an independent officeholder.

In special elections between 2011 and 2018, one party (either Republicans or Democrats) saw an average net gain of four seats nationally each year. An average of 91 seats were filled through special elections in each of the past four odd-numbered years. Thirty-four state legislative special elections took place on November 7, 2017, and 20 state legislative special elections were held on November 3, 2015.

Two state legislative special elections will take place in December—in Arkansas and Tennessee. Three such elections have been scheduled so far in 2020 in three states—Arkansas, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

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Deval Patricks announces 2020 presidential election bid

Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing

November 14, 2019: Deval Patrick entered the 2020 presidential race. Ten candidates qualified for the Democratic debate on Nov. 20.


 Presidential poll highlights, 2019-2020 - Monmouth University (November 7-11, 2019)
Presidential poll highlights, 2019-2020 - Quinnipiac University (November 6-10, 2019)

Notable Quote of the Day

“The upshot of these survey results is that the order in which the candidates leave the race matters. If, let’s say, Sanders were to drop out due to health reasons, Warren would be the most prominent beneficiary, as she is the second choice of over a third of Sanders’ voters (compared to only 13% for Biden). If, for some unlikely reason, Warren were to leave the race, Sanders would be helped far more than Biden. If Biden were to bow out, there would be no clear-cut winner, as Sanders, Warren, and Buttigieg would split his votes relatively evenly.”

– David Brady and Brett Parker, Stanford University

Democrats

  • Ten candidates qualified for the fifth Democratic primary debate: Joe BidenCory BookerPete ButtigiegTulsi GabbardKamala HarrisAmy KlobucharBernie SandersTom SteyerElizabeth Warren, and Andrew Yang. The debate will take place in Atlanta at Tyler Perry Studios on Nov. 20.

  • Michael Bennet is campaigning in New Hampshire on Friday with events in Manchester and Nashua.

  • Biden issued a $1.3 trillion infrastructure plan on Thursday, which includes investment in electric car charging stations, high-speed railways, and clean energy.

  • Buttigieg released a new statewide television and digital ad in Iowa, which focuses on his Medicare for All Who Want It proposal.

  • Julián Castro released his policy plan for people with disabilities on Wednesday. He called for funding the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act and repealing the subminimum wage program in Section 14(c) of the Fair Labor Standards Act.

  • John Delaney purchased 30-minute program blocks for a television special in Iowa covering his positions on healthcare, climate change, jobs, and other issues. The special will air first on Nov. 17 with additional broadcasts until the caucuses.

  • Harris is attending events Friday in Long Beach, California, including the Equality CA LGBTQ Reception. CNBC reported that the Harris campaign planned to boost its digital outreach in Iowa. 

  • Deval Patrick joined the Democratic presidential primary with a video announcement on Thursday.

  • Sanders is holding a Green New Deal rally in Fresno, California, on Friday.

  • Joe Sestak filed for the New Hampshire primary on Wednesday.

  • Warren is airing an ad on CNBC that promotes her wealth tax and criticizes billionaires who oppose it.

  • Marianne Williamson continues to campaign in Nevada on Thursday with events in Reno and Sparks.

  • Yang is airing two new ads in New Hampshire about healthcare and universal basic income as part of a mid-six figures ad buy.

Republicans

Flashback: November 14, 2015

The second Democratic presidential primary debate was held with Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O’Malley participating.



Trump has appointed the 4th-most federal judges as of Nov. 1

The Daily Brew
Welcome to the Wednesday, November 13, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. Trump has appointed the fourth-most federal judges at this point in his presidency in the last 100 years
  2. Ten candidates have qualified for the next Democratic presidential primary debate
  3. Boudin wins San Francisco District Attorney election

Trump has appointed the fourth-most federal judges at this point in his presidency in the last 100 years

Donald Trump appointed—and the Senate confirmed—157 Article III federal judges through November 1, 2019, his third year in office. This is the fourth-most federal judicial appointments through this point in a presidency of all presidents dating back to Theodore Roosevelt. Jimmy Carter (177), George W. Bush (167), and Bill Clinton (166) made more appointments.

The average number of federal judges appointed by a president through November 1 of their third year in office is 91.

Article III federal judges are appointed for life terms by the president of the United States and confirmed by the U.S. Senate per Article III of the United States Constitution. Article III judges are those on the Supreme Court of the United States, U.S. courts of appeal, U.S. district courts, and the Court of International Trade.

The median number of Supreme Court justices appointed by each of the last 20 presidents at this point in a presidency is two—the number appointed by Trump. William Taft’s (R) five Supreme Court appointments were the most among this group of presidents. Franklin Roosevelt (D), Carter (D), and George W. Bush (R) did not appoint any SCOTUS justices through November 1 of their third year in office.

The median number of U.S. Court of Appeals justices appointed by this point in a presidency is 18. Trump and Carter appointed the most among the last 20 presidents with 43 each. Trump’s 43 U.S. Court of Appeals appointments represent 24% of the 179 federal appeals court judgeships. Presidents Theodore Roosevelt (R) and Woodrow Wilson (D) appointed the fewest, five each.

The median number of U.S. District Court appointees is 66. George W. Bush appointed the most with 137 and Theodore Roosevelt appointed the fewest with 10. Trump has appointed 110 federal district court judges so far—16% of the 677 judgeships in the district courts.

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Ten candidates have qualified for the next Democratic presidential primary debate

Today—Nov. 13—is the deadline for presidential candidates to qualify for the fifth Democratic primary debate, which takes place at Tyler Perry Studios in Atlanta on Nov. 20. The debate will be hosted by MSNBC and The Washington Post.

Ten candidates have qualified: Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Tulsi Gabbard, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Tom Steyer, Elizabeth Warren, and Andrew Yang. All ten participated in the previous debate Oct. 15 in Westerville, Ohio.

Julián Castro—who also appeared in the last debate—has failed to meet the polling threshold to qualify. The other candidate who participated in the Oct. 15 debate—Beto O’Rourke—dropped out of the race on Nov. 1.

A candidate has two ways to meet the polling threshold to qualify for the Nov. 20 debate:

  • Receive 3 percent support or more in at least four national or early state polls—Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and/or Nevada. The four polls must be sponsored by different organizations or be of different geographical areas if they have the same poll sponsor, or
  • Receive 5 percent support or more in at least two single state polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and/or Nevada. The two polls may be from the same geographical area and poll sponsor.

Candidates also need to meet a fundraising threshold of 165,000 unique donors with a minimum of 600 donors per state in at least 20 states.

So far, six candidates have already met increased polling and fundraising thresholds for the sixth Democratic debate in Los Angeles Dec. 19: Biden, Buttigieg, Harris, Klobuchar, Sanders, and Warren. Candidates have until Dec. 12 to qualify.

And there’s still time to register for today’s quarterly briefing to catch you up on all the happenings in the 2020 presidential race. That webinar—which I’ll host with Emily Aubert, the primary author of our daily and weekly Presidential News Briefing newsletters—takes place at 11 a.m. Central time. Click here to snag a spot.

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Boudin wins San Francisco District Attorney election

Chesa Boudin has been declared the winner of the Nov. 5 nonpartisan election for San Francisco District Attorney. He was endorsed by Bernie Sanders and the city’s Green party affiliate. Boudin defeated Suzy Loftus, Leif Dautch, and Nancy Tung in the first open-seat election for that office since 1909.

Under San Francisco’s system of ranked-choice voting, voters rank their preference for up to 10 candidates for each office. Votes are initially allocated to each voter’s first-place candidate. If no candidate wins a majority of the first-place vote, the candidate with the least votes is eliminated and their votes are reassigned to their next preferred candidate.

As of Monday—Nov. 11—Boudin had received 35.7% of the first-place votes to Loftus’ 31.1%. Loftus conceded the race Saturday after mail-in ballots tallied over the past week indicated Boudin would win.

A projection released by the city department of elections indicated that Dautch would be eliminated in the first round, followed by Tung in the second. The report projected a Boudin victory over Loftus in the third round by a margin of 1.66 percentage points, or 2,825 votes.

Incumbent George Gascón announced earlier this year that he would not seek re-election. After Gascón resigned Oct. 4, San Francisco Mayor London Breed appointed Loftus to the office on an interim basis. Loftus was endorsed by Breed, the city branch of the Democratic Party, Sens. Kamala Harris (D) and Dianne Feinstein (D), and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D).

Ballotpedia readers were able to learn more about these candidates before the election through our Candidate Conversations project—developed in conjunction with EnCiv—to help voters get to know candidates as people. Candidate Conversations is an online video portal where candidates can answer questions, and voters can watch those answers, anytime, for free, to learn more about them.
 

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