As of May 30, 2023, former President Donald Trump (R) leads in both RealClearPolitics’ (RCP) Republican presidential primary polling average and PredictIt’s Republican presidential primary market.
Trump’s polling average currently stands at 53%, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at 22%. No other candidate has more than a 10% polling average. In PredictIt’s Republican primary market, Trump’s share price is $0.59, and DeSantis’ share price is $0.33. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10.
A candidate’s polling average reflects an estimate of the vote share a candidate would receive if the election took place today, while a PredictIt share price roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of a candidate winning the election.
President Joe Biden (D) leads both RCP’s Democratic primary polling average and PredictIt’s Democratic primary market. Biden has a 35% polling average, with no other candidates polling at or above 10%, and a $0.76 PredictIt share price. One other candidate, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), has a share price at or above $0.10. Newsom stands at $0.11.
Biden, DeSantis, and Trump are the only candidates of this group to have officially announced their presidential campaigns.
Two new noteworthy candidates announced 2024 presidential campaigns in the past week. Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) announced on May 22, 2023, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) announced on May 24. There are now three noteworthy Democrats and eight noteworthy Republicans running for president.
Below is a summary of each candidate’s campaign activity from May 19 to May 26.
Joe Biden (D) spoke about firearms policy at a memorial for the Uvalde, Texas, school shooting in Washington, D.C., on May 24. That day, Biden also released an online ad criticizing DeSantis.
Asa Hutchinson (R) campaigned in South Carolina from May 22 to May 23.
Vivek Ramaswamy (R) held campaign events in Chicago, Illinois, on May 19 and Iowa on May 26. He also spoke at the Bitcoin 2023 conference on May 20.
Tim Scott (R) announced his presidential campaign on May 22 at a rally in North Charleston, South Carolina. On May 23, Scott began a $5.5 million ad campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire. Scott campaigned in Iowa on May 24 and New Hampshire on May 25.
Donald Trump (R) was endorsed by Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey (R) on May 22. Trump released an online ad on May 24 criticizing DeSantis.
We did not identify any specific campaign activity from Corey Stapleton (R) during this time frame.
At this point in the 2020 cycle, 26 noteworthy candidates were running for president. Twenty-four were seeking the Democratic nomination, and two (Trump and former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld) were seeking the Republican nomination.
Notable stories at the time included eight Democratic presidential candidates appearing at demonstrations opposing anti-abortion laws in Alabama and Georgia on May 21, 2019, and reporting that said Trump had spent $5 million on Facebook ads targeting older Americans and women from January to May 2019.
In the 2016 election, eight noteworthy candidates had announced their campaigns as of May 26, 2015. There were two Democrats (Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders) and five Republicans.
As of May 16, 2023, 13 statewide measures have been certified for the ballot in eight states for elections in 2023. That’s five more measures than the average number (8) certified at this point in other odd-numbered years from 2011 to 2021.
For 2024, 34 statewide measures have been certified in 18 states. That’s five more measures than the average number certified at this point from 2010 to 2022.
Here’s an update on the latest ballot measure activity.
Three new measures were certified for the 2023 ballot last week:
In Ohio, one initiative to legalize marijuana was certified to the Legislature, which had four months to act on the proposal; as the Legislature took no action, a second 90-day signature-gathering period commenced on May 3.
As of May 8, 2023, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows President Joe Biden (D) leading at $0.49, followed by former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.32, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.16. Biden has held the lead in this market since Jan. 22, 2023. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.
Trump and Biden are the only candidates of this group to have officially announced their presidential campaigns.
The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading at $0.75. One other candidate, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), has a share price at or above $0.10. Newsom stands at $0.13.
Trump leads the Republican presidential primary market at $0.61. He’s led this market since March 24, 2023. Trump is followed by DeSantis, who stands at $0.28. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10.
PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections.
Thirty-seven people declared candidacies for federal or statewide offices in the past week, four more than last week. All of these candidates declared before their state’s official filing deadline.
Twenty of those candidates were Democratic, while 14 were Republican. Three were minor-party candidates.
Twenty-five candidates are running for Congress, eight for state legislatures, two for governorship, and two for a lower state executive office.
Since the beginning of the year, Ballotpedia has identified 612 declared candidates for federal and statewide offices. At this time in 2021, Ballotpedia had identified 914 declared candidates for 2022, 2023, and 2024 races.
An official candidate is someone who registers with a federal or state campaign finance agency before the candidate filing deadline or appears on candidate lists released by government election agencies. A declared candidate is someone who has not completed the steps to become an official candidate but who might have done one or more of the following:
Appeared in candidate forums or debates
Published a campaign website
Published campaign social media pages
Advertised online, on television, or through print
Issued press releases
Interviewed with media publications
For more on Ballotpedia’s definition of candidacy, click here.
As of May 2, 2023, seven statewide measures have been certified for the ballot in four states for elections in 2023. That’s the same as the average number (7) certified at this point in other odd-numbered years from 2011 to 2021.
For 2024, 32 statewide measures have been certified in 16 states. That’s six more measures than the average number certified at this point from 2010 to 2022.
Here’s an update on the latest ballot measure activity.
One new measure was certified for the 2023 ballot last week:
PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows President Joe Biden (D) leading at $0.50 as of May 1, 2023, followed by former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.29, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.15. Biden has held the lead in this market since Jan. 22, 2023. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.
Trump and Biden are the only candidates of this group to have officially announced their presidential campaigns.
The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading at $0.76. One other candidate, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), has a share price at or above $0.10. Newsom stands at $0.13.
Trump leads the Republican presidential primary market at $0.56. He’s led this market since March 24, 2023. Trump is followed by DeSantis, who stands at $0.28. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10.
PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections.
On April 25, 2023, exactly four years after he announced his 2020 presidential campaign, President Joe Biden (D) announced his campaign for re-election in 2024. Biden’s entry brings the tally of noteworthy presidential candidates to three Democrats, five Republicans, and one Republican with an exploratory committee.
Below is a summary of each candidate’s campaign activity from April 21 to April 28.
In addition to announcing his campaign, Biden announced his campaign leadership. Senior White House Advisor Julie Chavez Rodriguez will serve as campaign manager. Quentin Fulks, who worked on Sen. Raphael Warnock’s (D-Ga.) 2022 re-election campaign, will be deputy campaign manager. Co-chairs for the campaign include Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.), former DreamWorks CEO Jeffrey Katzenberg, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D), Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.), Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas), and Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.).
Marianne Williamson (D) held an event in New York City on April 22 and campaigned in Michigan on April 24. She also issued a statement responding to Biden’s re-election campaign on April 25.
Nikki Haley (R) delivered a policy speech outlining her position on abortion. From April 26 to April 28, she campaigned in New Hampshire.
Asa Hutchinson (R) held a campaign launch event on April 26 in Bentonville, Ark. He also spoke at an event hosted by the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition on April 22.
Vivek Ramaswamy (R) spoke at the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition event on April 22 and continued campaigning in the state through April 24. He also issued a statement on Biden’s re-election campaign on April 24 and began a four-day campaign tour in South Carolina.
Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), still exploring a possible presidential campaign, also spoke at the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition event on April 22 and issued a statement responding to Biden’s re-election campaign on April 25.
Donald Trump (R) held a campaign event in New Hampshire on April 27. He campaigned in Florida on April 21 and released an ad criticizing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) on April 24. Trump also issued a statement on Biden’s re-election campaign on April 24.
Ballotpedia did not identify any campaign activity from former Montana Secretary of State Corey Stapleton (R).
At this point in the 2020 cycle, 23 noteworthy candidates were running for president. Twenty-one were seeking the Democratic nomination, and two (Trump and former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld) were seeking the Republican nomination.
Notable stories at the time included Biden’s presidential campaign announcement on April 25, 2019, Rep. Seth Moulton’s (D-Mass.) campaign announcement on April 22, and three Democratic presidential candidates announcing they supported impeaching then-President Trump.
In the 2016 election, four noteworthy candidates had announced their campaigns as of April 28, 2015. There was one Democrat, the eventual 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton (D), and three Republicans, Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Rand Paul (R-Ky.), and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). At this point in the 2016 cycle, noteworthy stories included profiles of Republican donors and reporting on former Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker’s (R) preparations for a presidential run.
The Iowa State Legislature referred a constitutional amendment to the 2024 ballot that would create a system of succession in the case of temporary or permanent disability of the governor. The amendment would provide that if the governor dies, resigns, or is removed from office, the lieutenant governor would assume the office of governor for the remainder of the term, thereby creating a vacancy in the office of lieutenant governor. Under the amendment, if the lieutenant governor assumed the office of governor, they would have the authority to appoint a new lieutenant governor.
Currently, in Iowa, if the governor leaves office, the lieutenant governor becomes responsible for fulfilling the duties and assumes the powers of the governor, but does not have the authority to appoint a new lieutenant governor.
Adam Gregg (R) was appointed lieutenant governor of Iowa by Gov. Kim Reynolds on May 25, 2017. Reynolds, the previous lieutenant governor, had recently become Governor following the resignation of Terry Branstad to serve as U.S. Ambassador to China.
Before Reynolds was sworn in, Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller (D) issued a legal opinion stating that Reynolds would not have the ability to appoint her own lieutenant governor. In a press conference announcing the decision, Miller said, “There’s a clear historic practice that there is no replacement of a lieutenant governor or vice president absent a constitutional provision.” Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate (R) disagreed, saying in a statement, “There is sufficient legal authority for Governor Reynolds to fill the vacancy of lieutenant governor.”
Upon Gregg’s appointment, a Des Moines Register report citing Reynolds’ Deputy Chief of Staff Tim Albrecht said Gregg was appointed in such a way that he will “‘operate’ the office of lieutenant governor, but not actually ‘hold’ that office.” Although Gregg held the title and carried out the responsibilities of the office, he took office while remaining outside of the gubernatorial line of succession. This meant that if Reynolds became unable to carry out the office of governor, the new governor would be the President of the Iowa Senate, who at the time was Jack Whitver (R).
The constitutional amendment was introduced as House Joint Resolution 2005 on Feb. 10, 2022. It was passed in the House on Feb. 23, 2022, in a vote of 63-34. It was passed in the Senate on March 22, 2022, in a vote of 46-3. The amendment was sent to the Iowa secretary of state and thereby referred to the 2023-2024 session of the state legislature. The constitutional amendment was introduced during the 2023 legislative session as House Joint Resolution 3 on Jan. 26, 2023. It was passed in the House on Feb. 1, 2023, in a vote of 81-18. It was passed in the Senate on April 19, 2023, in a vote of 50-0.
The state legislature first passed a constitutional amendment addressing the gubernatorial line of succession during the 2018 legislative session, which would have gone before the legislature during the 2019-2020 legislature session to appear on the 2020 ballot. However, due to an error made by the secretary of state’s office, the 2018 vote did not count toward referring the amendment to the ballot and the process had to be restarted.
Voters in Indiana will also vote on a constitutional amendment related to the gubernatorial line of succession in 2024. Under the proposal, the superintendent of public instruction would be removed from the gubernatorial line of succession since the elected position of state superintendent of public instruction was abolished in 2021 and replaced by the secretary of education, a position appointed by the governor.
As of Feb. 28, 2023, the end of the most recent campaign finance reporting period, three committees associated with the Democratic Party have $60 million in cash on hand, while three committees associated with the Republican Party have $39 million in cash on hand.
The three Democratic committees are the Democratic National Committee (DNC), the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). The three Republican committees are the Republican National Committee (RNC), National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), and National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).
So far in the 2024 election cycle, the DNC, DSCC, and DCCC each lead their Republican counterparts in cumulative receipts and disbursements. See the table below for exact figures.
Compared to previous cycles, the Democratic committees’ cumulative receipts this past February ($46 million) currently outpace their receipts at this point in the 2020 election cycle ($40 million), but are lower than their receipts at this point in the 2022 election cycle ($67 million). On the Republican side, the three committees raised $34 million last month, which is lower than their February 2019 fundraising total ($54 million) and their February 2021 fundraising total ($56 million).
