TagCongressional election

Stevens defeated Levin in race incumbent-vs.-incumbent Democratic primary for Michigan’s 11th Congressional District

U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens defeated U.S. Rep. Andy Levin in the Democratic primary for Michigan’s 11th Congressional District on August 2, 2022. Stevens received 59.5% of the vote, and Levin received 40.5%.

This race was one of six incumbent-vs.-incumbent primaries occurring for the U.S. House in 2022 as a result of congressional redistricting.

Michigan lost one congressional district following the 2020 census, and when the lines were redrawn, its new 11th district included areas represented by multiple Democratic incumbents. According to data from Daily Kos, the newer 11th district contains about 45% of the older 11th district, which Stevens began representing in Congress in 2019. The newer 11th contains about 25% of the older 9th district, which Levin began representing in Congress in 2019.

When asked why he decided to run for election in the new 11th district instead of the new 9th, Levin said, “I’m running where I live, and I’m very happy about that decision, no regrets.” Levin’s campaign website said of the newer 11th district that Levin’s “roots in Oakland County, Michigan, go back well over 100 years” and that his father Sandy Levin (D) represented parts of the newer 11th in the older 9th district from 1983 to 2019.

Stevens called the incumbent-vs.-incumbent primary unfortunate, saying, “No one asked for this…In ten months, we are not going to be colleagues and that is not good. That is not good for Michigan. That’s not good for the Democratic Party. It’s not good for the country.” 

Levin served on the Education and Labor and Foreign Affairs committees in the 117th Congress. He was also a member of the Progressive caucus. Levin’s campaign said he had a progressive record in Congress, citing his co-sponsorship of bills to implement the Green New Deal and Medicare for All and his endorsements from Senator Elizabeth Warren (D) and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D). Levin also emphasized his background on the campaign trail, saying of his former jobs as union organizer for the national AFL-CIO and SEIU, “It’s my life. I’m the union organizer in Congress.” Heading into the final month of the race, Levin had raised more than $4.5 million.

Stevens served on the Education and Labor and Science, Space & Technology committees in the 117th Congress. She helped launch the Women in STEM Caucus in 2020, which said that its goal is to support and increase the number of women in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics fields. Prior to her election to Congress in 2018, Stevens served as the chief of staff for the U.S. Auto Rescue Task Force under former President Barack Obama (D). Heading into the final month of the race, Stevens had raised more than $2.5 million. In a July 2022 Target-Insyght poll, Stevens led Levin with 58% of voter support to his 31%.

Before the primary, the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rated Michigan’s 11th Congressional District as a solid/safe Democratic seat, meaning that the winner of the Democratic primary was very likely to win the general election as well.

Schweikert defeats Barnett and Norton in the Republican primary for Arizona’s 1st Congressional District

Incumbent David Schweikert defeated Josh Barnett and Elijah Norton in the Republican primary for Arizona’s 1st Congressional District on August 2, 2022. Schweikert and Norton led in fundraising and media attention throughout the race.

Schweikert was the incumbent in Arizona’s 6th Congressional District and ran in the 1st District due to redistricting. According to data from DailyKos, 75% of the redrawn 1st District, which covered parts of Phoenix and Scottsdale, came from areas Schweikert represented in the 6th District. U.S. Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D), the incumbent in the 1st District, ran in the 2nd District.

Schweikert served in the Arizona House of Representatives from 1991 to 1995 and as Maricopa County’s treasurer from 2004 to 2006 before being elected to represent the 6th District in 2010.

Schweikert highlighted his record on tax policy and economic issues, including voting for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. Schweikert’s website said, “As a member of the Ways and Means committee responsible for tax policy, David took the lead in ensuring the historic tax cuts in 2017 became law.” Schweikert also focused on his opposition to vaccine mandates and President Joe Biden’s (D) immigration policies. Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Schweikert.

Norton, a Missouri native, is the founder and owner of Veritas Global Protection Services, a Phoenix-based car insurance company. Norton highlighted his business credentials, saying that, as an entrepreneur, he would bring a unique perspective to Congress. Norton also cited immigration as a top issue, saying he supported investing in technology to monitor the border and “establish[ing] a criminal database sharing system with Mexico.” In his responses to Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey, Norton said he intended to serve no more than eight years in Congress and would donate his congressional salary to charity.

At the time of the primary, three election forecasters rated the general election Lean Republican. According to Inside Elections’ Nathan Gonzales, the redrawn 1st district was slightly more competitive than the old 6th district. “[The 1st district] got a little more Democratic by the presidential numbers. Trump won the old district by 4 points, but Biden would have won the newly drawn District by a single point,” Gonzales said.

Gibbs defeats incumbent Meijer in Michigan’s 11th Congressional District Republican primary

John Gibbs defeated incumbent U.S. Rep. Peter Meijer in the Republican primary for Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District on August 2, 2022.

Meijer, first elected in 2020, was one of 10 Republicans who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump (R) following the breach of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. Trump endorsed Gibbs in this primary.

In a Candidate Connection survey submitted to Ballotpedia, Gibbs said, “No one else has fought in Washington like I have under President Trump,” and that he would “[reduce] government largess and overreach which threatens civil rights, civil liberties and our way of life.” 

The primary received notable satellite spending in its final weeks, with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spending $449,854 on ads opposing Gibbs.

Meijer wrote that the ads were, instead, intended to boost support for Gibbs in the primary, calling the spending a “naked political [gambit] aimed at elevating the weaker Republican candidate ahead of the November … elections.”

Gibbs’ campaign did not respond to the DCCC ads but, following the primary, said money did not play a role in the race and that his victory “is an important lesson for the powers that be … to learn they’ve really got to respect what the people want.”

Gibbs will face Hillary Scholten (D) in the general election. Scholten ran against Meijer in 2020, receiving 47% of the vote. The 3rd District’s line changed during redistricting with Michigan Radio’s Nisa Khan and Emma Ruberg describing the district as becoming more Democratic-leaning as a result.

Meijer’s defeat—along with U.S. Rep. Andy Levin’s (D) in Michigan’s 11th District—brings the total number of U.S. House incumbents defeated in primaries to 11 for this cycle. Over the past decade, this is second only to 2012, the most recent post-redistricting cycle, when 13 incumbents lost in primaries.

Eli Crane wins Republican primary for Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District

Eli Crane defeated six other candidates in the Republican primary for Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District on Aug. 2. With 72% of the expected vote counted, Crane had received 34% of the vote, Walter Blackman had received 24%, and Mark DeLuzio had received 18%.

Heading into the primary, Crane and Blackman led in endorsements and individual campaign contributions.

Crane, a Navy veteran and small business owner, said he was “an America First candidate who is pro-life, pro-second amendment, and has the courage to take a stand against cancel culture and the radical left.” Crane said, “I’m running for Congress because America is in trouble. The week after 9/11, I volunteered for the SEAL Teams. I’m ready to head back into the fight.” Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Crane on July 22. The National Border Patrol Council, Green Beret PAC, U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), and Arizona Sens. Wendy Rogers (R) and Sonny Borrelli (R) also endorsed Crane.

Blackman, who was elected to the Arizona House of Representatives in 2018, said he was the only candidate in the primary with the “values, experience, and commitment to public service necessary to take back [the Republican] majority[.]” Blackman said he would “continue [his] fight for border security, election integrity and against the culture war.” Blackman served in the U.S. Army for 21 years as a tank commander and sexual assault prevention specialist. After retiring from the Army, he founded a consulting firm. The Arizona Police Association, U.S. Rep. Burgess Owens (R-Utah), Arizona House Majority Leader Ben Toma (R), Majority Whip Leo Biasiucci (R), and Speaker Pro-Tempore Travis Grantham (R) endorsed Blackman.

Steven Krystofiak, John W. Moore, Andy Yates, and Ron Watkins also ran in the primary.

According to data from Daily Kos, after redistricting, 64% of the new 2nd District’s population came from the old 1st District, represented by Tom O’Halleran (D). Thirty-six percent came from the old 4th District, represented by Paul Gosar (R). O’Halleran ran unopposed in the Democratic primary for the 2nd District.

Major independent observers rate the general election as Likely Republican or Lean Republican.

Rep. Rashida Tlaib wins Democratic primary in Michigan’s 12th

Rashida Tlaib defeated Kelly Garrett, Shanelle Jackson, and Janice Winfrey in the Democratic primary for Michigan’s 12th Congressional District on August 2, 2022. Based on unofficial returns, Tlaib received 64.4% of the vote, while Winfrey came in second with 20.1%.

Tlaib, the representative for Michigan’s 13th Congressional District, ran in the 12th District due to redistricting. U.S. Rep. Debbie Dingell (D), the district’s representative at the time of the primary, ran in the 6th District.

Tlaib was first elected to Congress in 2018. Tlaib’s top priorities on her website included “racial and immigration justice, economic and housing justice, healthcare for all, human rights around the world, environmental justice, and LGBTQ+ and gender justice.” Her endorsements included the Democratic Socialists of America, the Michigan AFL-CIO, the Michigan Education Association, Our Revolution, and Planned Parenthood.

At the time of the primary, Winfrey was the Detroit city clerk. She highlighted her experience in that role through the city’s bankruptcy in 2013 and the COVID-19 pandemic as evidence of her ability to lead in difficult times. Winfrey’s top priorities on her website included working across the aisle in Congress, reducing inflation, increasing access to healthcare, and supporting Israel as a free state.

Sean Maloney and Alessandra Biaggi running in New York’s 17th Congressional District Democratic primary

Sean Maloney and Alessandra Biaggi are running in the Democratic Party primary for New York’s 17th Congressional District on Aug. 23, 2022. Mondaire Jones (D) has represented the 17th Congressional District since 2021 but is running in New York’s 10th Congressional District this election cycle.

Maloney has represented New York’s 18th Congressional District since 2013 and has served as the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee since 2020. Maloney was a candidate for New York’s attorney general in 2018, but lost to Letitia James in the Democratic primary. Maloney also served as a senior advisor to President Bill Clinton (D) and first deputy secretary in former Gov. Eliot Spitzer’s (D) administration. Maloney said he is “focused on getting results for my neighbors in the Hudson Valley – despite gridlock and dysfunction in Washington.”

Biaggi has represented District 34 in the New York State Senate since 2019. Biaggi also served as lead counsel to the NYS Council for Women and Girls, as the deputy national operations director for Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, as the assistant general counsel for the Office of Storm Recovery, and as a legal fellow for New York State Homes and Community Renewal. Biaggi said she is running for Congress “to protect and defend our democracy, to halt the climate crisis, to grow our supply of affordable housing, and to transform our government and economy to serve us all.”

The 17th Congressional District’s boundaries shifted as a result of redistricting. According to data from The New York Times, President Joe Biden (D) received 60% of the vote in the old district, but would have received 55% of the vote in the new district. The New York Times‘ Nicholas Fandos said congressional redistricting in the state “erased outright gains that Democrats had counted on based on the Legislature’s map and made other Democratic swing seats more competitive.”

According to Axios‘ Andrew Solender, “Maloney stoked anger from the left by running in a redrawn district mostly represented by Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.), a progressive freshman who is now running for an open seat in New York City miles away from his home turf. Biaggi, who had been running in an open district that was similarly upended by redistricting, then opted to run against Maloney.”

Biaggi said Maloney was “a selfish corporate Democrat” and that “having the head of the campaign arm not stay in his district, not maximize the number of seats New York can have to hold the majority” was hurtful to the party. Maloney said, “From my point of view, I’m just running from where I landed. If someone else is looking at the district, as well, obviously we will try to work through that as colleagues and friends.”

As of July 2022, The Cook Political Report and Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated the district Lean Democratic, while Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rated it Likely Democratic. In the previous election, Jones defeated Maureen McArdle Schulman (R) 59% to 35%.

All Connecticut U.S. House incumbents file to run for re-election

The filing deadline for candidates running for Congress in Connecticut this year was June 7, 2022. Eleven candidates are running for Connecticut’s five U.S. House districts, including five Democrats and six Republicans. That’s 2.2 candidates per district, down from 2.6 in 2020 and 2018. 

Here are some other highlights from this year’s filings:

  1. This is the first election to take place under new district lines following the 2020 census. Connecticut was apportioned five districts, the same number it was apportioned after the 2010 census.
  2. The 11 candidates running this year are the fewest since 2014, when 10 candidates ran, and down from 13 in 2020 and 2018. 
  1. All incumbents are running for re-election, meaning there are no open seats this year. The 5th District is the only Connecticut U.S. House seat to have opened up this past decade. It was open in 2012 after incumbent Rep. Chris Murphy (D) decided to run for the U.S. Senate, and again in 2018 when incumbent Rep. Elizabeth Esty (D) did not file for re-election. 
  2. The Republican primary in the 4th District is the only contested primary this year. That’s down from two in 2020 and 2018. 
  3. No incumbents are facing primary challengers. 
  4. Republican and Democratic candidates filed to run in all five districts, so no seats are guaranteed to either party this year.

Connecticut and three other states—Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin—are holding primary elections on August 9, 2022. Winners in primary elections in Connecticut are determined via plurality vote, meaning that the candidate with the greatest number of votes wins the election even if he or she did not win an outright majority of votes cast.

Cheney, Bouchard, and Hageman run in Republican primary for Wyoming’s At-Large District

Incumbent Liz Cheney, Anthony Bouchard, Harriet Hageman, and two others are running in the Republican primary for Wyoming’s At-large Congressional District on August 16, 2022. According to the Federal Election Commission (FEC), Cheney, who was first elected to represent this district in 2016, Bouchard, and Hageman lead the primary field in fundraising heading into the final month of the race.

Cheney voted to impeach President Donald Trump (R) on January 13, 2021, for incitement of insurrection in the breach of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. She also voted to support the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol. Cheney said, “I will do everything I can to make sure the former president never again gets anywhere near the Oval Office…We have seen the danger that he continues to provoke with his language…We have seen his lack of commitment and dedication to the Constitution.”

In response, the Republican National Committee and Republican Party of Wyoming voted to censure Cheney. Cheney was also removed from her position as GOP Conference Chair in the U.S. House.

Cheney received 73.5% and 67.2% of the vote in the 2020 and 2018 Republican primaries, respectively. Cheney said she is “honored to represent the people of Wyoming and proud of my strong conservative record. I look forward to an extended public debate about the importance of the rule of law…It is tragic that some in this race have sacrificed those principles, and their duty to the people of Wyoming, out of fear and in favor of loyalty to a former president…” Cheney was endorsed by former President George W. Bush (R), U.S. Sen. Mitt Romney (R), and U.S. Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R). Heading into the final month of the race, Cheney has raised over $10 million in the election.

Hageman founded the Wyoming Conservation Alliance and has worked as an attorney and legal consultant. Former President Trump endorsed Hageman on September 13, 2021. Hageman said she is running because “Wyoming is entitled to a representative in Congress who remembers who sent her there and remembers what their wishes are…Liz Cheney is doing neither, and I will do both.” Hageman worked for Cheney’s unsuccessful U.S. Senate campaign in 2014, but said that she is challenging Cheney because of Cheney’s focus on the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol. In addition to former President Trump, Hageman was also endorsed by over 100 Republican U.S. House members. Heading into the final month of the race, Hageman has raised over $2 million for this primary.

Bouchard served as a Wyoming state senator from 2016 to 2022, representing the state’s 6th district. He founded Wyoming Gun Owners, an organization that says it is dedicated to “defending and advancing the 2nd Amendment rights of all law-abiding citizens in the state of Wyoming.”

Bouchard called Cheney out of touch with Wyoming voters for voting to impeach President Trump. Bouchard said, “Wyoming was President Trump’s best state both times he ran…That’s because Wyoming voters are strong conservatives who want our leaders to stand up for America, defend our freedoms, fight for our way of life and always put working people first as President Trump did.” Bouchard was endorsed by conservative activist Brent Bozell and, heading into the final month of the race, Bouchard has raised over $600,000 for this primary.

Other candidates on the ballot included Robyn Belinskey and Denton Knapp. Before the primary, the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rated Wyoming’s At-Large Congressional District as a solid/safe Republican seat.

New York’s 23rd Congressional District Republican primary features former gubernatorial nominee, state party chairman

Nicholas A. Langworthy and Carl Paladino are running in New York’s 23rd Congressional District Republican primary on August 23, 2022.

Incumbent Rep. Christopher Jacobs (R) withdrew from the primary on June 3. Spectrum News 1’s Ryan Whalen wrote, “The election opened up […] when Rep. Chris Jacobs dropped out of the race. Jacobs faced immense pressure from the GOP and Conservative Party to withdraw after expressing his support for several new gun laws including a federal ban on AR-15-style rifles.”

The Buffalo News’ Robert J. McCarthy said Langworthy and Paladino’s presence in the primary “is expected to result in a lively race, pitting against each other two well-known conservatives and allies of former President Donald Trump in an overwhelmingly Republican and pro-Trump district.”

Langworthy is chairman of the New York Republican Party. He also worked as an executive committee member for Donald Trump’s (R) 2016 presidential transition. Langworthy received endorsements from the House Conservatives Fund and its chairman, Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.). Banks said, “Nick is a true conservative who will be on the front lines fighting back against the radical policies of Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden. Nick will put American workers and families first and he is ready to hit the ground running on Day One.”

Paladino is an attorney who chairs the Ellicott Development Company, a real estate development and management company. He co-chaired Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign in New York, and was the Republican nominee for governor of New York in 2010. Paladino received endorsements from House Republican Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y). Stefanik said, “Carl is a job creator and conservative outsider who will be a tireless fighter for the people of New York in our fight to put America First to save the country.”

The Elmira Star-Gazzette’s Chris Potter wrote that the district’s “new borders [after redistricting] include Allegany, Steuben, Chemung, Schuyler, Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties, plus a large part of Erie County.” According to data from Daily Kos, 58% of New York’s new 23rd District population came from the old 23rd District, 36% came from the old 27th District, and 6% came from the old 26th District.

Previewing U.S. Senate general elections

Elections to the United States Senate will be held on November 8, 2022. Thirty-four of the 100 seats are up for regular election. Those elected to the U.S. Senate in the 34 regular elections will begin six-year terms on January 3, 2023.

Two special elections are also scheduled for November 8. One special election will be held to fill the final four years of Sen. Jim Inhofe’s (R-Okla.) six-year term that began in 2021. As a result, both of Oklahoma’s U.S. Senate seats will be up for election this year.

The other special election will be held to fill the final weeks of the six-year term that Vice President and former Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) was elected to in 2016. This U.S. Senate seat is also up for regular election in 2022, meaning a total of 35 seats are up for election this year.

Following the 2020 Senate elections and the January 2021 runoffs in Georgia, control of the chamber was split evenly for the first time since 2001 and for the fourth time in U.S. history. This gave Vice President Kamala Harris a tie-breaking vote, and Democrats control of the U.S. Senate via a power-sharing agreement. 

Heading into the 2022 Senate election, the chamber is still split 50-50, with Republicans holding 50 seats, Democrats holding 48, and two independent senators caucusing with Democrats. Republicans need a net gain of one seat to win control of the chamber. 

Of the 35 seats up for election this year, Democrats hold 14 and Republicans hold 21.

Aside from Inhofe, six incumbents — one Democrat and five Republicans — are not seeking re-election in 2022. They are: 

  1. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.)
  2. Richard Burr (R-N.C.)
  3. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.)
  4. Rob Portman (R-Ohio)
  5. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.)
  6. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.)

The five Republican incumbents not running for re-election are the most in a decade. In total, the six incumbents not seeking re-election this year are two more than in 2020.

Five races—three for seats held by Democrats and two for seats held by Republicans—are rated as Toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, or Sabato’s Crystal Ball. They are:

  1. Arizona, incumbent Mark Kelly (D)
  2. Georgia, incumbent Raphael Warnock (D)
  3. Nevada, incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto (D)
  4. Pennsylvania, incumbent Pat Toomey (R) (not seeking re-election)
  5. Wisconsin, incumbent Ron Johnson (R) 

Republicans are defending two Senate seats in states Joe Biden (D) won in the 2020 presidential election: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Democrats are not defending any Senate seats in states Donald Trump (R) won in 2020.

Four of the 34 seats up for regular election this year changed party hands the last time they were up for election. 

Two of those seats, Illinois and New Hampshire, changed party hands in 2016, the last time they were up for regular election: 

  1. Illinois—Tammy Duckworth (D) defeated incumbent Mark Kirk (R). Duckworth’s margin of victory was 15.1%.
  2. New Hampshire—Maggie Hassan (D) defeated incumbent Kelly Ayotte (R). Hassan’s margin of victory was 0.1%.

The other two, Arizona and Georgia, changed party hands in 2020 and 2021 after special elections were held in those states:

  1. Arizona — Mark Kelly (D) defeated incumbent Martha McSally (R) in a special election in 2020. Kelly’s margin of victory was 2.4%, and he was the first Democrat to win this seat since 1962.
  2. Georgia — Raphael Warnock (D) defeated incumbent Kelly Loeffler (R) in a special election that went to a runoff in 2021. Warnock’s margin of victory was 2.1%, and he was the first Democrat to win this seat since 2000.

Eleven of the seats up for election in 2022 were won by fewer than ten percentage points the last time they were up for election. Of those, seven were won by fewer than five percentage points, four held by a Democrat, and three held by a Republican. 

Hassan’s margin of victory of 0.1% over Ayotte in New Hampshire’s 2016 Senate race was the closest, while Sen. John Hoeven’s (R-N.D.) margin of victory of 61.5% over Eliot Glassheim (D) in the 2016 North Dakota Senate race was the largest. 

In 11 states with Senate seats up for election in 2022, the seat is currently held by a senator of a different party than the governor. Six seats held by Republican senators in states with Democratic governors are up. Five seats held by Democratic senators in states with Republican governors are up.

Four states with Senate seats up for election in 2022 have senators from different parties in the 117th Congress. Vermont has one Democratic senator and one independent senator who caucuses with Democrats, so three states with seats up for election have senators in different caucuses: Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

There are seven states in the 117th Congress with senators from different parties, the fewest number of states with split Senate delegations in history.