TagCongressional election

18% of Congressional elections were decided by fewer than 10 points

By Juan Garcia de Paredes
In Federal
January 19, 2023 at 11:44 AM

In the 2022 U.S. Senate and U.S. House elections, the winning candidate’s margin of victory (MOV) was ten percentage points or fewer in 85 races and five percentage points or fewer in 46 races. 

Ten of the races decided by ten percentage points or fewer were for the U.S. Senate, and 75 were for the U.S. House. Six of the races decided by five percentage points or fewer were for the U.S. Senate, while 40 were for the U.S. House. 

Congressional elections decided by ten percentage points or fewer represent approximately 18% of the 470 U.S. Congressional elections in 2022. Congressional elections decided by five percentage points or fewer represent approximately 10%.

The 85 congressional races decided by ten percentage points or fewer in 2022 are four fewer than the 89 races decided by the same margin in 2020. In 2018, 102 were decided by ten percentage points or fewer. In 2016, 42 were, and in 2014, 56 were.  

The Republican candidate won 34 of these elections in 2022, down from 45 in 2020. The Democratic candidate won 51, up from 44 in 2020 and the highest number since 2014. 

The 46 Congressional races decided by less than five percentage points or fewer in 2022 are four more than the 42 races decided by the same margin in 2020. In 2018, 50 were decided by five percentage points or fewer or less. In 2016, 42 were, and in 2014, 56 were. 

The Republican candidate won 20 of those races in 2022, up from 19 in 2020. The Democratic candidate won 26, up from 23 in 2020 and the highest number since 2014.



Democrat Josh Riley and Republican Marc Molinaro are running in New York’s 19th Congressional District

By Juan Garcia de Paredes
In 2022 elections
October 4, 2022 at 5:26 PM

Josh Riley (D) and Marc Molinaro (R) are running in the November 8, 2022, general election for New York’s 19th Congressional District. Incumbent Pat Ryan (D) is running for re-election in New York’s 18th Congressional District due to redistricting.

Riley is a private attorney and former congressional staffer. Riley highlighted his ties to the district and said he would work to encourage job growth in Upstate New York. Riley said, “We should be saying no to bad trade deals. We can invest in high-tech jobs that restore manufacturing and fight climate change. We can build an upstate economy that works for working families. That’s why I’m running for Congress.”

Molinaro was elected Dutchess County executive in 2011 and was the 2018 Republican nominee for governor of New York. Molinaro said, “As a County Executive, I’ve worked with both sides to cut taxes and spending, fully fund police and lend a hand to those with disabilities through our Think Differently initiative. I’m running for Congress because it’s time they think differently as well.”

Molinaro lost to Pat Ryan 51.1% to 48.8% in a special election on August 23, 2022, to fill the remainder of former Rep. Antonio Delgado’s (D) term. Delgado represented the 19th district from 2019 until May 25, 2022, when he resigned to become lieutenant governor.

The 19th district was redrawn after the 2020 census to encompass the cities of Ithaca and Binghampton. According to the Cook Political Report, the old district had a partisan lean of R+2, while the redrawn district has an even partisan lean.

In the 2020 presidential election, President Joe Biden (D) received 49.8% of the 19th district’s vote to former President Donald Trump’s (R) 48.3%. According to data from Daily Kos, Biden would have received 51.3% of the vote in the redrawn district, and Trump would have received 46.7%.

As of June 2022, 36% of the district’s active voters were registered Democrats, 32% were registered Republicans, and 31% were either registered with some other party or unaffiliated.

Both candidates have the organizational and financial support of their respective national parties. Riley is a member of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red to Blue” program, a project that supports Democratic candidates in competitive congressional districts. Molinaro is part of the National Republican Congressional Committee’s Young Guns program, an initiative that supports Republican candidates running for Congress in open or Democratic-held House districts.

The outcome of this race will affect the partisan balance of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 118th Congress. All 435 districts in the House are up for election. As of September 30, 2022, Democrats hold a 220-212 advantage in the U.S. House with three vacancies. 



A three-candidate rematch in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District

By Amee LaTour
In 2022 elections
October 4, 2022 at 11:53 AM

Incumbent Rep. Jared Golden (D), former Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R), and Tiffany Bond (I) are running in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District on Nov. 8, 2022.

Golden defeated Poliquin, then the incumbent, along with Bond and Will Hoar (I) in 2018. That was the first congressional race ever decided by ranked-choice voting. Poliquin received a plurality of the vote—46.3% to Golden’s 45.6%—on the first count. Bond received 5.7% and Hoar, 2.4%. After ranked-choice tabulations, Golden defeated Poliquin 50.6% to 49.4%. Before Poliquin, no incumbent had lost the district since 1916, Roll Call reported.

Ranked-choice voting will also be used in the 2022 election.

Golden served in the Marines and the Maine House of Representatives before his election to the U.S. House. Golden said his record, which includes being the only House Democrat to vote against the Build Back Better Act in 2021, shows he’s a “fierce, independent voice” for the district. Golden also highlights his support for the 2021 infrastructure bill and increasing oil and gas production, federal funds he helped secure for loggers and the lobster industry, and his endorsement from the state Fraternal Order of Police.

Before serving in the House, Poliquin was an investment manager and served as state treasurer after the Maine Legislature selected him on the recommendation of former Gov. Paul LePage (R). Poliquin emphasizes his business background and has criticized Democrats for inflation, high gas prices, and what he called an open border. Poliquin said he would work to control spending, reopen oil and natural gas supplies, and “secure our border to make sure we take care of America first.”

Bond is a family law attorney who says she “isn’t distracted by the constant fundraising and partisan noise.” Bond says she agrees with Republicans on issues such as financial responsibility and smaller government and with Democrats on issues such as privacy and healthcare accessibility. Bond is asking supporters to donate to causes or spend at local businesses while leaving a note about her campaign instead of donating to her campaign.

The Associated Press‘ Patrick Whittle said that Poliquin’s focus on issues like immigration and gun rights in 2022 mark “a shift from his earlier campaigns, which focused more closely on controlling taxes and protecting rural jobs.” Whittle said Golden “has long positioned himself as a moderate who supports the 2nd Amendment and works to safeguard industries such as commercial fishing and papermaking” and was taking a similar approach in 2022.

The 2nd District is one of 13 U.S. House districts Democrats are defending that Donald Trump (R) won in the 2020 presidential election. According to Daily Kos data, Trump would have defeated Joe Biden (D) in the 2nd District as it was redrawn after the 2020 census 51.6%-45.5%. Under the previous congressional map, Trump defeated Biden 52.3%-44.8% in the 2nd District.

The outcome of this race will affect the partisan balance of the U.S. House in the 118th Congress. All 435 House districts are up for election. As of Sept. 30, 2022, Democrats held a 220-212 advantage in the chamber with three vacancies. Republicans need to gain a net of six districts to win a majority.

Additional reading:



Incumbent Rep. Annie Kuster (D) and Bob Burns (R) running in NH-02

By Amee LaTour
In 2022 elections
September 29, 2022 at 6:36 PM

Incumbent Rep. Annie Kuster (D) and Bob Burns (R) are running for New Hampshire’s 2nd Congressional District on Nov. 8, 2022.

Kuster first took office in 2013. She said, “I will protect access to safe, legal abortion, and my opponent, Mr. Burns, won’t, and that’s the difference. That’s what’s on the ballot this November.” Kuster is also campaigning on her record in Congress, saying she has put New Hampshirites over partisan politics, including by working with both parties to increase economic opportunities and by supporting a ban on members of Congress trading stock.

Burns said, “Managing taxpayer money as the Hillsborough County Treasurer and managing the payroll at Burns Automation is the type of real-world experience that is needed now more than ever in Congress.” Burns said people won’t want to vote for Democrats due to high oil costs this fall. He said he would like to ban abortion but didn’t think it was going to happen and that he supports “a fetal heartbeat bill. That’s abortion up to 12 weeks.”

Kuster defeated Steve Negron (R) 54% to 44% in 2020 and 56% to 42% in 2018. That year, Burns placed fourth in the 2nd District Republican primary with 16%.

The outcome of this race will affect the partisan balance of the U.S. House in the 118th Congress. All 435 House districts are up for election. Democrats hold a 221-212 majority. Republicans need to gain a net of six districts to win a majority in the chamber.

Daily Kos calculated what the 2020 presidential election results in this district would have been following redistricting. Joe Biden (D) would have received 53.6% of the vote in this district and Donald Trump (R) would have received 44.7%.



Incumbent Yvette Herrell (R), Gabriel Vasquez (D), and write-in Eliseo Luna (D) running for New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District

By Ellen Morrissey
In 2022 elections
September 28, 2022 at 9:30 AM

Incumbent Yvette Herrell (R), Gabriel Vasquez (D), and write-in Eliseo Luna (D) are running in the November 8, 2022, general election for New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District.

The Las Cruces Sun News’ Michael McDevitt wrote, “While CD2 has traditionally been a red seat, it’s been marked as a likelier Democratic district by the Cook Political Report following redistricting last year. Under New Mexico’s redrawn district map, which follows the 2020 U.S. Census, the district dominates the southwestern corner of the state.”

Herrell was first elected to Congress in 2020, defeating then-incumbent Xochitl Torres Small (D) 54% to 46%. Before being elected to Congress, Herrell served in the New Mexico House of Representatives from 2011 to 2018. In a campaign ad, Herrell said, “Costs and crime are rising, so I’m fighting to stop Biden’s out-of-control inflation, secure our border, and make our neighborhoods safer.”

Vasquez currently works as director of strategy and partnerships at HECHO (Hispanics Enjoying Camping, Hunting, and the Outdoors), a program sponsored by the National Wildlife Federation. He previously served as a Las Cruces city councilor from 2017 to 2021. In a campaign ad, Vasquez said “To protect a woman’s right to choose, lower costs for families, and give New Mexico what it deserves, I’ll stand up to any party leader.”

Both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) have selected their candidates in this race to be part of their respective Red to Blue and Patriot funding and support programs.

The outcome of this race will affect the partisan balance of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 118th Congress. All 435 districts in the House are up for election. As of September 20, 2022, Democrats hold a 221-212 advantage in the U.S. House with two vacancies. Republicans need to gain a net of six districts to win a majority in the chamber.

Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Joe Biden (D) would have received 51.9% of the vote in this district and Donald Trump (R) would have received 46.1%.



Incumbent Kildee, Junge, Canny, and Goodwin running for Michigan’s 8th Congressional District

By Samuel Wonacott
In State
September 20, 2022 at 11:24 AM

Incumbent Dan Kildee (D), Paul Junge (R), David Canny (L), and Kathy Goodwin (Working Class Party) are running in the general election for Michigan’s 8th Congressional District on November 8, 2022.

Bloomberg Government’s Emily Wilkins said, “Kildee, first elected a decade ago, is one of a handful of lawmakers who became GOP targets thanks to redistricting. His once-safe district, which includes Flint and Saginaw, became more Republican with the addition of Midland. And as one of more than two dozen endangered incumbent Democrats, the House majority will be decided in his own backyard.”

Kildee represents Michigan’s 5th Congressional District, a position to which he was first elected in 2012. Kildee has campaigned on bringing jobs back to Michigan and raising worker wages, lowering insurance premiums and the price of prescription drugs, and clean water. Kildee has referenced his record in the U.S. House, saying, “I’m focused on fighting inflation and lowering the cost of gas, groceries and prescription drugs. I’ve worked to support our local law enforcement and pass bipartisan legislation, supported by Republicans and Democrats, to reduce crime. And I’ve helped pass new laws, like the bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the CHIPS and Science Act, to support Michigan jobs and grow our economy.” In the 2020 general election, Kildee defeated Tim Kelly (R) 54.5% to 41.7%.

Junge is a former prosecutor and news anchor who worked in U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services under President Donald Trump (R). Junge has campaigned on opposing tax increases, cutting spending, banning sanctuary cities, and securing elections. Junge said, “by stopping the failed Biden-Kildee agenda and returning to the successful policies of the Trump Administration, we will strengthen our economy, lower gas prices, secure the border, and expand opportunities for every American.” In 2020, Junge ran in the general election for Michigan’s 8th Congressional District and lost to incumbent Elissa Slotkin (D) 50.9% to 47.3%.

Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Joe Biden (D) would have received 50.3% of the vote in this district and Trump would have received 48.2%.

The outcome of this race will affect the partisan balance of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 118th Congress. All 435 districts in the House are up for election. As of September 13, 2022, Democrats hold a 221-212 advantage in the U.S. House with two vacancies. 



Langworthy defeats Paladino in New York’s 23rd Congressional District Republican primary

By Ellen Morrissey
In 2022 elections
August 24, 2022 at 5:03 PM

Nicholas Langworthy defeated Carl Paladino in New York’s 23rd Congressional District Republican primary on August 23, 2022. 

The Buffalo News’ Robert J. McCarthy said Langworthy and Paladino’s presence in the primary “[was] expected to result in a lively race, pitting against each other two well-known conservatives and allies of former President Donald Trump in an overwhelmingly Republican and pro-Trump district.”

Langworthy is the chairman of the New York Republican Party. He also worked as an executive committee member for Donald Trump’s (R) 2016 presidential transition. Langworthy received endorsements from the House Conservatives Fund and its chairman, Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.). Banks said, “Nick is a true conservative who will be on the front lines fighting back against the radical policies of Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden. Nick will put American workers and families first and he is ready to hit the ground running on Day One.”

The Elmira Star-Gazette’s Chris Potter wrote that the district’s “new borders [after redistricting] include Allegany, Steuben, Chemung, Schuyler, Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties, plus a large part of Erie County.” According to data from Daily Kos, 58% of New York’s new 23rd District population came from the old 23rd District, 36% came from the old 27th District, and 6% came from the old 26th District.



Both candidates in the election for Washington’s 3rd Congressional district complete Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey

By Ellen Morrissey
In 2022 elections
August 11, 2022 at 1:09 PM

Both candidates running in the November 8, 2022, general election for Washington’s 3rd Congressional District —Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez (D) and Joe Kent (R)—completed Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey. These survey responses allow voters to hear directly from candidates about what motivates them to run for office.

The outcome of this race will affect the partisan balance of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 118th Congress. All 435 seats in the House are up for election. As of August 10, Democrats hold a 220-210 advantage in the U.S. House with five vacant seats. Washington’s current congressional delegation consists of 7 Democrats and 3 Republicans.

Here are excerpts from candidates’ responses to the question: What do you perceive to be the United States’ greatest challenges as a nation over the next decade?

Gluesenkamp Pérez:

“Money in politics. Love of money is the root of all evil and we cannot address our biggest threats like climate change or a disappearing middle class without having political leaders who are honest dealers that put the interest of their constituents above high-dollar donors.”

Kent:

“We have to break away from the failed economic policies and national security strategies that have only benefited the ruling class and China. We must fully audit the 2020 Presidential Election to restore the American people’s faith in our democratic system. We have to return critical industries and manufacturing back to America, restore energy independence, and end our wasteful post 9/11 wars.”

Click on candidates’ profile pages below to read their full responses to this and other questions.

We ask all federal, state, and local candidates with profiles on Ballotpedia to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. Want to see Candidate Connection continue to grow in future elections? Ask the candidates in your area to fill out the survey.

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Beasley, Budd, and seven other candidates running in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate general election on Nov. 8

By Dave Beaudoin
In 2022 elections
August 4, 2022 at 11:40 AM

Former state supreme court justice Cheri Beasley (D), U.S. Rep Ted Budd (R), and seven others are running in the general election on Nov. 8, 2022, to represent North Carolina in the U.S. Senate.

Incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R)—who first took office in 2005—is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat race. In 2020, when the state last held an election for U.S. Senate, incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis (R) defeated Cal Cunningham (D), 49% to 47%. In 2016, Burr defeated Deborah Ross (D), 51% to 45%.

The two most recent presidential elections in North Carolina were decided by less than 4 percentage points. In the 2020 election, incumbent President Donald Trump (R) defeated Joe Biden (D), 49.9% to 48.6%. In the 2016 election, Trump carried North Carolina with 49.8% of the vote to Hillary Clinton’s (D) 46.2%. At the start of the 2022 election cycle, Inside Elections rated this state Battleground Republican.

The outcome of this race will affect the partisan balance of the U.S. Senate. Thirty-five of 100 seats are up for election, including one special election. Democrats have an effective majority, with the chamber split 50-50 and Vice President Kamala Harris (D) having the tie-breaking vote. Fourteen seats held by Democrats and 21 seats held by Republicans are up for election in 2022. Republicans are defending two Senate seats in states Joe Biden (D) won in the 2020 presidential election: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Democrats are not defending any Senate seats in states Donald Trump (R) won in 2020.

Minor party, independent, and write-in candidates include Matthew Hoh (G), Shannon Bray (L), and independent candidates Hayden Boyette, Michelle Lewis, Kimrey Rhinehardt, Brenda Rodriguez, and Marc White.

Additional reading:

U.S. Senate battlegrounds, 2022

United States Senate election in North Carolina, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary)

United States Senate election in North Carolina, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary)



Final incumbent vs. incumbent primary upcoming in NY-12

By Janie Valentine
In 2022 elections, Federal
August 3, 2022 at 6:28 PM

U.S. Rep. Carolyn Maloney, U.S. Rep. Jerry Nadler, Suraj Patel, and Ashmi Sheth are running in the Democratic primary for New York’s 12th Congressional District on Aug. 23. Maloney, Nadler, and Patel lead in endorsements, funding, and media attention.

This race is the last of six primaries featuring two U.S. House incumbents in 2022.

Maloney currently represents the 12th District as it was drawn before redistricting, and Nadler represents the old 10th District. Heading into the election, Maloney represents 61% of the redrawn 12th District’s population, and Nadler represents 39%, according to Daily Kos data.

Both representatives were first elected in 1992. Maloney chairs the Oversight and Government Reform Committee and Nadler chairs the Judiciary Committee. Maloney and Nadler are both members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus and are campaigning as progressives.

Maloney’s campaign website says she has fostered “lasting bipartisan agreement in an increasingly polarized government, without giving up the ideals and causes she’s fought for throughout her career: promoting equality, protecting consumers, building infrastructure that serves New Yorkers and the region, extending and protecting healthcare coverage for all, protecting the environment, and working to understand and find solutions for everyday issues like affordable housing and small business support.”

Nadler’s campaign website says his record includes “standing up to Republican attempts at voter suppression, providing justice to survivors of sexual assault and harassment, [and] leading the impeachment of President Trump as Chair of the House Judiciary Committee.” The website calls Nadler “a relentless defender of our country’s democracy and a fierce fighter for civil rights, racial justice, and a safer, more equal America.”

Patel, an attorney, was a campaign staffer for Barack Obama’s (D) presidential campaigns. Patel challenged Maloney in 2018 and 2020, receiving 40% of the vote to Maloney’s 60% in 2018 and 39% to Maloney’s 43% in 2020.

Patel calls himself “an Obama Democrat” and said, “Democrats need a new generation of leaders – practical and progressive leaders who can deliver new energy and fresh ideas on how to get things done.” Patel said, “New Yorkers are hungry for change. They want more affordable housing, better jobs, safer streets, modern infrastructure that actually gets built in their lifetimes, and representatives who are willing to do whatever it takes to protect and codify their human rights at the federal level.”

Major independent observers rate the general election as solid Democratic or safe Democratic.