Tagpolling

Trump maintains lead in PredictIt’s 2024 Republican presidential primary market

By Ellen Morrissey
In 2024 elections
May 2, 2023 at 2:42 PM

PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows President Joe Biden (D) leading at $0.50 as of May 1, 2023, followed by former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.29, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.15. Biden has held the lead in this market since Jan. 22, 2023. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.

Trump and Biden are the only candidates of this group to have officially announced their presidential campaigns.

The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading at $0.76. One other candidate, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), has a share price at or above $0.10. Newsom stands at $0.13.

Trump leads the Republican presidential primary market at $0.56. He’s led this market since March 24, 2023. Trump is followed by DeSantis, who stands at $0.28. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. 

PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. 

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President Joe Biden at 43% approval at end of April, same as last month

By Ellen Morrissey
In Federal
May 1, 2023 at 4:04 PM

Polling averages at the end of April 2023 showed President Joe Biden (D) with a 43% approval rating. Fifty-three percent of voters disapproved of his performance. 

Biden’s approval rating held at 43% over the course of the month. The lowest approval rating Biden has received is 38%, last seen on July 27, 2022. The highest approval rating Biden has received is 55%, last seen on May 26, 2021.

At the end of April, Congress’ approval rating was 28%, and disapproval was 59%. The highest approval rating the 118th Congress received was 33%, last seen on April 21, 2023, and the lowest approval rating it received was 22%, last seen on March 24, 2023.

At this point in his presidency, President Donald Trump’s (R) approval rating was also 43%, and congressional approval was seven points lower than it is now at 21%.

Ballotpedia’s polling index takes the average of polls conducted over the last thirty days to calculate presidential and congressional approval ratings. We average the results and show all polling results side-by-side because we believe that paints a clearer picture of public opinion than any individual poll can provide. The data is updated daily as new polling results are published.

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President Joe Biden at 43% approval at end of March

By Ellen Morrissey
In Federal
April 3, 2023 at 11:59 AM

At the end of March, polling averages showed President Joe Biden (D) at 43% approval. Fifty-three percent of voters disapproved of his performance. 

At the end of February, Biden had a 44% average approval rating. The lowest approval rating he’s received is 38%, last seen on July 27, 2022. The highest approval rating Biden has received is 55%, last seen on May 26, 2021.

At the end of March, congressional approval was at 28% and disapproval was at 59%. The highest approval rating the 118th Congress received was 30%, last seen on March 16, 2023, and the lowest approval rating it received was 21%, last seen on January 18, 2023.

At this time during the Trump administration, presidential approval was the same at 43%, and congressional approval was seven points lower at 21%.

Ballotpedia’s polling index takes the average of polls conducted over the last thirty days to calculate presidential and congressional approval ratings. We average the results and show all polling results side-by-side because we believe that paints a clearer picture of public opinion than any individual poll can provide. The data is updated daily as new polling results are published.

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