TagRepublican primaries

Daniel Cameron defeats eleven other candidates in the Republican primary for governor of Kentucky

By Juan Garcia de Paredes
In State
May 17, 2023 at 4:56 PM

Daniel Cameron defeated Ryan Quarles, Kelly Craft, and nine other candidates in the Republican primary for governor of Kentucky on May 16. Cameron will face incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear (D) in the general election on Nov. 7.

Cameron received 47% of the vote to Quarles’ 22% and Craft’s 18%. The three led in polling and media attention throughout the race.

Ahead of the primary, the Associated Press’ Bruce Schreiner wrote that “[t]he top contenders often sound[ed] alike on core GOP issues. They support gun rights, oppose abortion and demand more parental input in school policies.”

Cameron was first elected attorney general in 2019, when he defeated Gregory Stumbo (D) 58% to 42%. Cameron previously worked as a law clerk and legal counsel to U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell (R). President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Cameron in June 2022. Following the endorsement, Cameron said, “With President Trump’s support, we are more ready than ever to take on the Beshear-Biden agenda that is failing our families and doesn’t reflect the values of our 120 counties.”

Quarles, a former state representative, has served as Kentucky’s Commissioner of Agriculture since 2016. In a statement on his campaign website, Quarles said, “Kentucky deserves a Governor who knows what a hard day’s work looks like. Whether it was getting mud on my boots at the farm or teaching our next generations, I believe I will be that Governor.” Quarles had the endorsements of four state senators, 22 state representatives, and other local state officials.

Craft served as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations under Trump from 2019 to 2021 and as U.S. Ambassador to Canada from 2017 to 2019. In a campaign ad, Kelly said, “I’m unapologetic about being pro-life, defending our veterans, and defending our second amendment.” U.S. Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R), and Vivek Ramaswamy endorsed Craft.

Heading into the primary, Vox’ Ben Jacobs wrote that Cameron’s key advantage was Trump’s endorsement. “The former president issued an endorsement of Cameron in 2022 which the state attorney general has heavily touted in recent weeks,” Jacobs wrote.

“In contrast,” wrote Jacobs, “Craft’s biggest advantage is her personal wealth. Her husband Joe Craft is a billionaire coal mogul. She has loaned her campaign almost $10 million this year and her husband has spent $1.5 million to fund the superPAC that supports her.”

Quarles, according to The New York Times’ Nick Corasaniti, “has aggressively campaigned in rural stretches of the state, racking up more than 235 endorsements from local officials, including county judges, mayors and magistrates.”

The outcome of the general election will determine the state’s trifecta status for at least the next year (with legislative elections scheduled for 2024). The state currently has a divided government: Democrats control the governorship, and Republicans control both legislative chambers. The Cook Political Report rates the general election Lean D.

The lieutenant governor is also up for election. In Kentucky, gubernatorial and lieutenant governor candidates run as a ticket. Gubernatorial candidates have until Aug. 8 to designate a running mate.

Kentucky—alongside Kansas, Louisiana, and North Carolina—was one of four states with a Democratic governor that President Donald Trump (R) won in 2020. That year, Trump defeated Joe Biden (D) 62% to 36% in the state. The last Democratic presidential nominee to carry the state was former President Bill Clinton in 1996.

At the state level, Democratic governors had led Kentucky for 64 of the past 76 years. The state had elected three Republican governors since World War II, each serving single terms from 1967 to 1971, 2003 to 2007, and 2015 to 2019.

Jacob Clark, David Cooper, Bob DeVore, Eric Deters, Mike Harmon, Alan Keck, Dennis Ray Ormerod, Johnny Ray Rice, and Robbie Smith also ran in the primary.

Kentucky also held elections for Attorney General, Secretary of State, Treasurer, Auditor of Public Accounts, and Commissioner of Agriculture on Tuesday, as well as a special election for State Senate District 28.



Trump leads PredictIt’s 2024 Republican presidential primary market

By Ellen Morrissey
In 2024 elections
May 9, 2023 at 2:08 PM

As of May 8, 2023, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows President Joe Biden (D) leading at $0.49, followed by former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.32, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.16. Biden has held the lead in this market since Jan. 22, 2023. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.

Trump and Biden are the only candidates of this group to have officially announced their presidential campaigns.

The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading at $0.75. One other candidate, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), has a share price at or above $0.10. Newsom stands at $0.13.

Trump leads the Republican presidential primary market at $0.61. He’s led this market since March 24, 2023. Trump is followed by DeSantis, who stands at $0.28. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. 

PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. 

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Trump maintains lead in PredictIt’s 2024 Republican presidential primary market

By Ellen Morrissey
In 2024 elections
May 2, 2023 at 2:42 PM

PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows President Joe Biden (D) leading at $0.50 as of May 1, 2023, followed by former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.29, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.15. Biden has held the lead in this market since Jan. 22, 2023. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.

Trump and Biden are the only candidates of this group to have officially announced their presidential campaigns.

The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading at $0.76. One other candidate, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), has a share price at or above $0.10. Newsom stands at $0.13.

Trump leads the Republican presidential primary market at $0.56. He’s led this market since March 24, 2023. Trump is followed by DeSantis, who stands at $0.28. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. 

PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. 

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Trump maintains lead in PredictIt’s 2024 Republican presidential primary market

By Ellen Morrissey
In 2024 elections
April 4, 2023 at 4:13 PM

As of April 3, 2023, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential market shows President Joe Biden (D) leading at $0.41, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at $0.27, and former President Donald Trump (R) at $0.26. Biden has held the lead in this market since January 22, 2023. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.

Trump is the only candidate of this group to have officially announced his presidential campaign.

The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading at $0.69. One other candidate, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), has a share price at or above $0.10. Newsom stands at $0.10.

Trump holds the lead in the Republican presidential primary market at $0.41. He’s led this market since March 24, 2023. DeSantis follows at $0.37. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. Former South Carolina Governor and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (R) is at $0.07, while former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson (R), who declared his candidacy over the weekend, is not included in PredictIt’s Republican presidential primary market.

PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. Due to action from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, PredictIt may halt trading. The platform was initially set to shut down on Feb. 15, but the CFTC action is currently under injunction as a court considers PredictIt’s appeal to the decision.

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Langworthy defeats Paladino in New York’s 23rd Congressional District Republican primary

By Ellen Morrissey
In 2022 elections
August 24, 2022 at 5:03 PM

Nicholas Langworthy defeated Carl Paladino in New York’s 23rd Congressional District Republican primary on August 23, 2022. 

The Buffalo News’ Robert J. McCarthy said Langworthy and Paladino’s presence in the primary “[was] expected to result in a lively race, pitting against each other two well-known conservatives and allies of former President Donald Trump in an overwhelmingly Republican and pro-Trump district.”

Langworthy is the chairman of the New York Republican Party. He also worked as an executive committee member for Donald Trump’s (R) 2016 presidential transition. Langworthy received endorsements from the House Conservatives Fund and its chairman, Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.). Banks said, “Nick is a true conservative who will be on the front lines fighting back against the radical policies of Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden. Nick will put American workers and families first and he is ready to hit the ground running on Day One.”

The Elmira Star-Gazette’s Chris Potter wrote that the district’s “new borders [after redistricting] include Allegany, Steuben, Chemung, Schuyler, Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties, plus a large part of Erie County.” According to data from Daily Kos, 58% of New York’s new 23rd District population came from the old 23rd District, 36% came from the old 27th District, and 6% came from the old 26th District.



Harriet Hageman defeats Liz Cheney in the Republican primary for Wyoming’s At-large Congressional District

By Roneka Matheny
In 2022 elections, Federal
August 18, 2022 at 12:42 PM

Harriet Hageman defeated Liz Cheney, Anthony Bouchard, Robyn Belinskey, and Denton Knapp in the Republican primary for Wyoming’s At-large Congressional District on August 16, 2022. According to the Federal Election Commission (FEC), Cheney, who was first elected to represent this district in 2016, Bouchard, and Hageman led the primary field in fundraising heading into Election Day.

Cheney voted to impeach President Donald Trump (R) on Jan. 13, 2021, for incitement of insurrection in the breach of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6. She also voted to support the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol. Cheney said, “I will do everything I can to make sure the former president never again gets anywhere near the Oval Office…We have seen the danger that he continues to provoke with his language…We have seen his lack of commitment and dedication to the Constitution.”

In response, the Republican National Committee and the Republican Party of Wyoming voted to censure Cheney. Cheney was also removed from her leadership position as GOP Conference Chairwoman in the U.S. House.

Cheney received 73.5% and 67.2% of the vote in the 2020 and 2018 Republican primaries, respectively. A Wyoming Public Media poll conducted by the University of Wyoming from July and August of 2022 showed Hageman leading with 57% of likely voters, compared to 28% for Cheney and 2% for Bouchard. Ten percent of respondents remained undecided.

Cheney said she is “honored to represent the people of Wyoming and proud of my strong conservative record. I look forward to an extended public debate about the importance of the rule of law…It is tragic that some in this race have sacrificed those principles, and their duty to the people of Wyoming, out of fear and in favor of loyalty to a former president…” Cheney was endorsed by former President George W. Bush (R), U.S. Sen. Mitt Romney (R), and U.S. Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R). Heading into the week of the election, the FEC reported that Cheney raised more than $15 million.

Hageman founded the Wyoming Conservation Alliance and has worked as an attorney and legal consultant. Former President Trump endorsed Hageman on Sep. 13, 2021. Hageman said she is running because “Wyoming is entitled to a representative in Congress who remembers who sent her there and remembers what their wishes are…Liz Cheney is doing neither, and I will do both.” Hageman worked for Cheney’s unsuccessful U.S. Senate campaign in 2014 and said that she is challenging Cheney because of Cheney’s focus on the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol. In addition to former President Trump, Hageman also received endorsements from over 100 Republican members of the U.S. House. Heading into the week of the election, Hageman raised nearly $4.5 million for this primary.

Bouchard served as a Wyoming state senator from 2016 to 2022, representing the state’s 6th district. He founded the Wyoming Gun Owners, an organization that says it is dedicated to “defending and advancing the 2nd Amendment rights of all law-abiding citizens in the state of Wyoming.”

Bouchard called Cheney out of touch with Wyoming voters for voting to impeach President Trump. Bouchard said, “Wyoming was President Trump’s best state both times he ran…That’s because Wyoming voters are strong conservatives who want our leaders to stand up for America, defend our freedoms, fight for our way of life and always put working people first as President Trump did.” Bouchard was endorsed by conservative activist Brent Bozell. Heading into the week of the election, Bouchard raised more than $600,000 for this primary.

Other candidates on the ballot included Robyn Belinskey and Denton Knapp. Before the primary, the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rated Wyoming’s At-Large Congressional District as a solid/safe Republican seat.



Tim Michels wins Republican nomination for Wisconsin governor

By Joel Williams
In 2022 elections
August 10, 2022 at 4:56 PM

Tim Michels defeated Adam Fischer, Rebecca Kleefisch, and Timothy Ramthun in Wisconsin’s Republican gubernatorial primary on August 9, 2022. Based on unofficial results, Michels received 47.1% of the vote and Kleefisch received 42.5%. Kleefisch and Michels received the most media attention and endorsements. Governor Tony Evers (D) is running for re-election.

Michels co-owned a construction company and served in the United States Army for 12 years. Michels campaigned as a political outsider and said he would “drain the Madison swamp.” Former President Donald Trump (R) and former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) endorsed Michels. In his statement of support, Trump said, “Wisconsin needs a Governor who will Stop Inflation, Uphold the Rule of Law, strengthen our Borders and End the well-documented Fraud in our Elections. Tim Michels is the best candidate to deliver meaningful solutions to these problems, and he will produce jobs like no one else can even imagine.”

Kleefisch was lieutenant governor under Gov. Scott Walker (R) from 2011 to 2019. Before that, she was a journalist in the Milwaukee area and started a marketing company. Kleefisch ran on her experience in office during the Walker administration and said she would reimplement several policies discontinued under Gov. Evers. Walker, U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Wis.), 58 members of the state legislature, former Vice President Mike Pence (R), former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (R), and former White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) endorsed Kleefisch.

In Wisconsin, gubernatorial candidates do not select their own running mates. The winner of the lieutenant gubernatorial primary is placed on the general election ballot alongside the winner of the gubernatorial primary. State Sen. Roger Roth won the lieutenant gubernatorial primary.

Heading into the general election, Wisconsin has a divided government. Gov. Evers is a Democrat, and Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature.



Primary watch: number of contested state legislative primaries is up 23% compared to 2020

By Douglas Kronaizl
In 2022 elections, State
August 5, 2022 at 5:38 PM

There are 23% more contested state legislative primaries this year than in 2020, including 53% more Republican primaries and 8% more top-two/four primaries. Democratic primaries are down 10%.

These figures include elections in 39 states that account for 5,011 of 6,166 state legislative seats up for election this year (81%).

A primary is contested when there are more candidates running than available nominations, meaning at least one candidate must lose.

Since our last update on Aug. 1, we have added post-filing deadline data from Florida and Vermont. Overall, 11 states in this analysis have Democratic trifectas, 20 have Republican trifectas, and eight have divided governments.

Of the 39 states in this analysis, 36 are holding partisan primaries. Three states—California, Nebraska, and Washington—use top-two primaries.

The number of Democratic primaries has increased in 11 states, decreased in 21, and remains the same in three. The number of Republican primaries has increased in 31 states, decreased in four, and is unchanged in one. The table below shows partisan statistics for the three states with the largest increases and decreases so far.

In addition to a state’s political makeup and party activity, redistricting is another reason for an increase in primary competitiveness.

After redistricting, some states—like Arkansas—hold elections for every district, while in other years, fewer districts are up each cycle. This creates more opportunities for primaries to occur. Or, like in West Virginia, redistricting creates new districts and, by extension, more primary opportunities. Currently, the total number of possible primaries affected by these changes is up 3.0% compared to 2020.

For states like New Mexico and South Carolina, where only one chamber is up for election every two years, only those chambers holding elections in 2022 that also held elections in 2020 are included.

Ballotpedia will continue to update these figures as information becomes available. In addition to this analysis, Ballotpedia collects competitiveness statistics at all levels of government, available here. This data is calculated following candidate filing deadlines and readjusted at the time of the primary to account for any changes to candidate lists.



Kari Lake wins Republican primary for governor of Arizona

By Janie Valentine
In 2022 elections, State
August 5, 2022 at 11:48 AM

Kari Lake defeated Karrin Taylor Robson, Scott Neely, and Paola Tulliani-Zen in the Republican primary for governor of Arizona on Aug. 2, 2022. With 90% of the expected vote counted, Lake had received 47% of the vote, followed by Taylor Robson with 44%. 

Incumbent Gov. Doug Ducey (R) is term-limited. 

Heading into the primary, Lake and Taylor Robson led in endorsements, polls, and funding.

Lake, a former news anchor for Fox 10 News in Phoenix, said she was “running … on a platform of common sense conservatism dedicated to individual liberties, low taxes, limited regulation, and protecting Arizona’s great Western heritage.” Lake said, ” The ongoing border crisis is nothing less than a national security and humanitarian disaster.” She said, “After I take my hand off the Bible, we are going to issue a declaration of invasion. We are going to finish President Trump’s wall, and we are going to send our armed National Guard to the border and stop people from coming across.”

Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Lake, as did U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), U.S. Reps. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), the Conservative Political Action Coalition, and the Arizona Fraternal Order of Police.

Taylor Robson, a former member of the Arizona Board of Regents and founder of a land-use strategy firm, said, “We need a leader with a record of accomplishment, not a career talker with the teleprompter.” Taylor Robson said that border security would be her first priority and that she would “surge National Guard troops to the border, equip the Border Strike Force with the latest technology, and finish the wall.” She also said, “I am uniquely qualified to lead this state into the future and to secure and protect Arizona’s water. My experience includes decades managing land, water and other natural resource issues, as well as working with government at all levels.”

Former Vice President Mike Pence (R), Ducey, and former Arizona Govs. Jan Brewer (R) and John Fife Symington III (R) endorsed Taylor Robson, as did Arizona state Senate President Karen Fann (R), Americans for Prosperity, and the National Border Patrol Council. Former U.S. Rep. Matt Salmon (R) withdrew from the primary and endorsed Taylor Robson at the end of June.

Lake said she would not have certified the results of the 2020 presidential election. She said that President Joe Biden (D) “lost the election and he shouldn’t be in the White House.” Taylor Robson said, “Joe Biden may be the president, but the election wasn’t fair.”

Patrick Finerd, Carlos Roldan, and Alex Schatz ran as write-ins in the primary.

Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs won the Democratic nomination on Aug. 2. Major independent observers rate the general election as a toss-up. Republicans have had trifecta control of Arizona state government since 2009.



Schweikert defeats Barnett and Norton in the Republican primary for Arizona’s 1st Congressional District

By Juan Garcia de Paredes
In 2022 elections, Federal
August 3, 2022 at 6:19 PM

Incumbent David Schweikert defeated Josh Barnett and Elijah Norton in the Republican primary for Arizona’s 1st Congressional District on August 2, 2022. Schweikert and Norton led in fundraising and media attention throughout the race.

Schweikert was the incumbent in Arizona’s 6th Congressional District and ran in the 1st District due to redistricting. According to data from DailyKos, 75% of the redrawn 1st District, which covered parts of Phoenix and Scottsdale, came from areas Schweikert represented in the 6th District. U.S. Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D), the incumbent in the 1st District, ran in the 2nd District.

Schweikert served in the Arizona House of Representatives from 1991 to 1995 and as Maricopa County’s treasurer from 2004 to 2006 before being elected to represent the 6th District in 2010.

Schweikert highlighted his record on tax policy and economic issues, including voting for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. Schweikert’s website said, “As a member of the Ways and Means committee responsible for tax policy, David took the lead in ensuring the historic tax cuts in 2017 became law.” Schweikert also focused on his opposition to vaccine mandates and President Joe Biden’s (D) immigration policies. Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Schweikert.

Norton, a Missouri native, is the founder and owner of Veritas Global Protection Services, a Phoenix-based car insurance company. Norton highlighted his business credentials, saying that, as an entrepreneur, he would bring a unique perspective to Congress. Norton also cited immigration as a top issue, saying he supported investing in technology to monitor the border and “establish[ing] a criminal database sharing system with Mexico.” In his responses to Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey, Norton said he intended to serve no more than eight years in Congress and would donate his congressional salary to charity.

At the time of the primary, three election forecasters rated the general election Lean Republican. According to Inside Elections’ Nathan Gonzales, the redrawn 1st district was slightly more competitive than the old 6th district. “[The 1st district] got a little more Democratic by the presidential numbers. Trump won the old district by 4 points, but Biden would have won the newly drawn District by a single point,” Gonzales said.