Welcome to the Friday, Sept. 20, Brew.
By: Mercedes Yanora
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Early voting starts today in three states
- Michigan has most contested elections for eighth election cycle in a row
- Did you know that state legislators in 16 states are subject to term limits?
Early voting starts today in three states
In some ways, today is the official start of the 2024 general election – because early voting officially kicks off today in Minnesota, South Dakota, and Virginia.
Early voting permits citizens to vote in person before Election Day. Forty-seven states offer no-excuse early voting. States that have in-person absentee/mail-in voting options are considered early voting states.
Vermont and Illinois closely follow Minnesota, South Dakota, and Virginia, with early voting starting on Sept. 21 and 26, respectively. Another 38 states begin early voting in October. Early voting for Louisiana’s statewide general election begins Nov. 22.
Early voting in Pennsylvania was scheduled to begin Sept. 16. But due to a series of minor party ballot access challenges pending before the state supreme court, the ballots had not yet been finalized. Read more in this Monday’s Brew.
Pennsylvania is one of four states where early voting dates or availability can vary by county or municipality.
Three states—Alabama, Mississippi, and New Hampshire—do not offer universal, in-person early voting. But voters meeting certain eligibility requirements may qualify to vote early.
The Heritage Foundation’s Hans von Spakovsky, an early voting opponent, said it can decrease voter turnout, raise the cost of political campaigns, and deny the voter the same access to knowledge about candidates as those who vote on Election Day.
The Brennan Center for Justice, which supports early voting, said it eases Election Day congestion, allows election officials to correct registration errors and fix voting system glitches earlier, and has popular support.
Disagreements over early voting often play out in federal and state courts. To read about recent court cases that have altered the practice in specific states, click here.
For more on early voting dates, please click below.
Michigan has most contested elections for eighth election cycle in a row
Around this time each year, we release our Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report. The report addresses election trends such as major party competition, open districts, and contested primaries. Today, we’re offering a sneak peek into this year’s report by highlighting our major party competition metrics, which include uncontested and contested election rates and data on guaranteed simple and veto-proof majorities! The full competitiveness report will be released in our Sept. 27 edition of the Brew.
For the eighth election cycle in a row, Michigan has the highest percentage of contested state legislative elections at 99%. The lowest rate in the state, since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010, was 98% in 2010 and 2012. The highest rate was 100% in 2014, 2016, and 2018.
Michigan is one of 16 states that limit legislators’ terms. Term limits result in a greater percentage of open seats, which generally have higher contested rates because incumbents are forced to leave office after a certain time – in Michigan’s case, 12 years. In term limit states, the average percentage of open seats in even years since 2010 is 29%. In non-term limit states, the average percentage is 14%.
The only other state with a contested election rate of over 90% this year is Minnesota at 95%. Maine (88%), Colorado (86%), and Ohio (86%) follow Minnesota to round out the top five most contested states. Of the five, Minnesota is the only state without term limits.
On a national scale, 2,273 (39%) state legislative seats are uncontested and have no major party competition. This is roughly average compared to previous years, down from 41% in 2022 but higher than 34% and 35% in 2018 and 2020, respectively. Both major parties are contesting the remaining 3,534 (61%) state legislative seats.
Democrats are guaranteed to win 1,129 seats (19%) that lacked Republican competition, a 10% increase from 2020, the last time all 44 states held elections. Republicans are guaranteed to win 1,143 seats (20%) that lacked Democratic competition, a 13% increase from 2020. Overall, Democrats are running for 4,663 seats (80%) and Republicans are running for 4,677 (81%).
A seat has major party competition when candidates from both major parties are on the general election ballot. When only one major party is running for a seat, it has no major party competition and is effectively guaranteed to the major party candidate on the ballot.
Ballotpedia uses the level of major party competition to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of seats without major party competition indicates fewer options on the ballot, while a smaller number indicates more options.
The absence of major party competition can effectively guarantee that one party wins the number of seats needed for a simple or veto-proof majority. One of the two major parties is guaranteed a simple majority in 19 chambers across 14 states. Democrats are guaranteed simple majorities in six chambers and Republicans are guaranteed simple majorities in 13.
One of the two major parties is guaranteed a veto-proof majority in 13 chambers across 11 states. Democrats are guaranteed veto-proof majorities in four chambers and Republicans are guaranteed veto-proof majorities in nine.
Did you know that state legislators in 16 states are subject to term limits?
Legislative term limits can be either lifetime or consecutive. In Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Louisiana, Maine, Montana, Nebraska, Ohio, and South Dakota, those limits are consecutive, meaning lawmakers can run again after a period of time.
In California, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, North Dakota, and Oklahoma, however, the limit is a lifetime one—once a legislator has served the maximum terms in a particular legislative chamber, they may never again run for or hold office there.
Learn more about state legislatures with term limits here.